Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on the At-Risk Species Anaxyrus microscaphus (The Arizona Toad): A Local and Range-Wide Habitat Suitability Analysis
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Data Acquisition
2.2.1. Occurrence Data
2.2.2. Spatial Scale and Resolution
2.2.3. Elevation and Remote Sensing Data
2.2.4. Climatic Data
2.2.5. Environmental Variables
2.3. Modeling Procedure
2.4. Environmental Variable Justification
2.4.1. Digital Elevation Model
2.4.2. Slope
2.4.3. Aspect
2.4.4. Terrain Ruggedness Index
2.4.5. Topographic Position Index
2.4.6. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index
2.4.7. Bare Soil Index
2.5. Model Evaluation
2.5.1. Forecasting
2.5.2. Model Assessment and Validation
3. Results
3.1. Model Performance
3.2. Future Climate Trends
4. Discussion
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Variable | Permutation Importance (%) |
---|---|
Annual Mean Temperature | 22.9 |
Elevation | 22.7 |
Isothermality | 11.5 |
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index | 11.1 |
Mean Diurnal Range | 11.0 |
Precipitation Seasonality | 5.7 |
Topographic Position Index | 3.5 |
Slope | 3.2 |
Precipitation of Coldest Quarter | 2.7 |
Ruggedness | 2.4 |
Aspect | 2.1 |
Bare Soil Index | 1.2 |
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Driver, S.M.; Eversole, C.B.; Unger, D.R.; Kulhavy, D.L.; Schalk, C.M.; Hung, I.-K. Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on the At-Risk Species Anaxyrus microscaphus (The Arizona Toad): A Local and Range-Wide Habitat Suitability Analysis. Ecologies 2023, 4, 762-778. https://doi.org/10.3390/ecologies4040050
Driver SM, Eversole CB, Unger DR, Kulhavy DL, Schalk CM, Hung I-K. Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on the At-Risk Species Anaxyrus microscaphus (The Arizona Toad): A Local and Range-Wide Habitat Suitability Analysis. Ecologies. 2023; 4(4):762-778. https://doi.org/10.3390/ecologies4040050
Chicago/Turabian StyleDriver, Sam M., Cord B. Eversole, Daniel R. Unger, David L. Kulhavy, Christopher M. Schalk, and I-Kuai Hung. 2023. "Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on the At-Risk Species Anaxyrus microscaphus (The Arizona Toad): A Local and Range-Wide Habitat Suitability Analysis" Ecologies 4, no. 4: 762-778. https://doi.org/10.3390/ecologies4040050