Landscape and Socioeconomic Factors Determine Malaria Incidence in Tropical Forest Countries
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
3. Results
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
TROPICAL AMERICAS | |||
---|---|---|---|
Belize * | Bolivia | Brazil | Colombia |
Dominican Republic | Ecuador | El Salvador * | Guatemala |
Guyana | Haiti | Honduras | Mexico |
Nicaragua | Panama | Peru | Suriname |
AFRICA | |||
Angola | Benin | Botswana | Burkina Faso |
Burundi | Cameroon | Central African Republic | Chad |
Cote d’Ivoire | Democratic Republic of the Congo | Djibouti | Equatorial Guinea |
Gabon | Gambia | Ghana | Guinea Bissau |
Guinea | Kenya | Liberia | Madagascar |
Malawi | Mali | Mauritania | Mozambique |
Namibia | Niger | Nigeria | Republic of the Congo |
Rwanda | Senegal | Sierra Leone | Sudan |
Togo | Uganda | United Republic of Tanzania | Zambia |
Zimbabwe | |||
ASIA | |||
Bangladesh | Bhutan | Cambodia | India |
Indonesia | Lao PDR | Malaysia | Myanmar |
Nepal | Pakistan | Papua New Guinea | Philippines |
Thailand | Vietnam |
Appendix B
Appendix C
GLOBAL (n = 67) | TROP. AMERICAS (n = 16) | AFRICA (n = 37) | ASIA (n = 14) | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
n | Mean (SD) | Min/Max | n | Mean (SD) | Min/Max | n | Mean (SD) | Min/Max | n | Mean (SD) | Min/Max | |
MI | 1328 | 15,030.43 (16810.25) | 0.16/58,908.94 | 320 | 891.35 (1787.62) | 0.16/9419.55 | 728 | 26,392.56 (14,941.43) | 26.89/59,908.94 | 280 | 1647.82 (3576.21) | 5.01/20,436.55 |
MS | 1206 | 2.15 (2.40) | 0.01/15.95 | 288 | 0.97 (1.16) | 0.11/7.87 | 666 | 3.23 (2.66) | 0.16/15.95 | 252 | 0.64 (0.75) | 0.01/3.86 |
AL | 1328 | 38.96 (19.94) | 0.49/79.17 | 320 | 33.23 (18.47) | 0.45/67.85 | 728 | 44.08 (19.63) | 6.80/79.17 | 280 | 32.22 (18.57) | 2.21/75.63 |
AFF | 1298 | 19.84 (12.78) | 0.89/79.04 | 320 | 10.21 (6.21) | 2.19/34.00 | 700 | 24.04 (11.27) | 0.89/79.04 | 278 | 20.14 (5.99) | 7.24/57.14 |
FA | 1328 | 41.07 (24.88) | 0.24/98.34 | 320 | 52.47 (21.09) | 12.71/98.34 | 728 | 34.59 (25.49) | 0.24/93.25 | 280 | 44.89 (21.69) | 4.89/80.11 |
GDP | 1328 | 2396.90 (2835.04) | 114.40/19,849.70 | 320 | 4576.80 (3112.49) | 547.70/15,826.10 | 728 | 1566.8 (2398.92) | 114.4/19,849.70 | 280 | 2064.1 (2190.13) | 131.5/11,132.0 |
NRR | 1324 | 9.24088 (9.855795) | 0.02/88.60 | 320 | 4.86 (5.43) | 0.02/31.93 | 724 | 12.44 (11.27) | 0.28/88.59 | 280 | 5.83 (5.99) | 0.36/31.20 |
ODA | 1328 | 6.05 (7.764) | −0.64/92.14 | 320 | 2.22 (3.26) | −0.63/24.32 | 728 | 8.99 (9.07) | −0.18/92.14 | 280 | 2.80 (3.22) | −0.64/14.07 |
UHC | 402 | 44.84 (16.11) | 15.00/83.00 | 96 | 62.67 (11.78) | 23.00/80.00 | 22 | 36.18 (10.46) | 15.00/62.00 | 84 | 47.37 (15.14) | 19.00/83.00 |
KBA | 1328 | 43.97 (23.12) | 0.00/100.00 | 320 | 37.58 (20.58) | 0.00/76.92 | 728 | 51.92 (23.12) | 0.00/100.00 | 280 | 30.63 (16.58) | 1.43/68.03 |
DAB | 1165 | 39.13 (73.00) | 0.00/704.15 | 280 | 43.18 (78.08) | 0.01/593.31 | 633 | 26.91 (38.27) | 0.00/280.27 | 252 | 65.32 (114.75) | 0.03/704.15 |
TCL | 1273 | 139,916.00 (425,804.00) | 0.00/5,378,844.00 | 304 | 263,266 (741,793) | 1070/5,378,844 | 703 | 62,799 (151,237.20) | 0.00/1,467,957.00 | 266 | 202,756 (78,597.30) | 0.00/2,422,072.00 |
GLOBAL | TROPICAL AMERICA | AFRICA | ASIA | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
β | CI | p | β | CI | p | β | CI | p | β | CI | p | |
(Intercept) | 14,959.18 | 10,795.53–19,122.83 | <0.001 | 2774.67 | 1611.62–3937.72 | <0.001 | 23,045.00 | 18,493.89–27,596.10 | <0.001 | 2589.65 | −111.46–5290.75 | 0.060 |
Year | −2372.18 | −3029.52–−1714.84 | <0.001 | −136.27 | −379.34–106.08 | 0.271 | −1312.84 | −2614.57–−11.12 | 0.048 | −1082.43 | −1423.80–−741.05 | <0.001 |
FA | 392.99 | −2639.66–3425.63 | 0.799 | 256.73 | −1234.27–720.81 | 0.606 | 5373.18 | 1185.68–9560.68 | 0.012 | −231.18 | −1509.29–1046.93 | 0.722 |
KBA | 67.21 | −746.45–880.87 | 0.871 | 496.71 | 223.11–770.32 | <0.001 | −509.55 | −1717.29–698.20 | 0.408 | 1679.20 | 986.16–2372.23 | <0.001 |
UHC | −367.81 | −1603.77–868.15 | 0.559 | −561.60 | −1001.56–−121.64 | 0.013 | −6196.58 | −8926.72–−3466.44 | <0.001 | 1266.02 | 746.53–1785.50 | <0.001 |
AL | −1488.69 | −3763.70–786.32 | 0.199 | −693.03 | −14008.23–22.17 | 0.057 | 1348.74 | −2178.13–4875.61 | 0.453 | 1419.11 | −80.64–2918.85 | 0.064 |
AFF | 108.81 | −628.44–846.06 | 0.772 | 971.14 | 290.77–1651.52 | 0.005 | 692.10 | −335.45–1719.66 | 0.186 | 834.67 | 428.74–1240.59 | <0.001 |
GDP | 1585.97 | 1057.01–2114.93 | <0.001 | −276.92 | −461.56–−92.28 | 0.003 | 536.99 | −378.93–1452.91 | 0.250 | - | - | - |
NRR | −246.25 | −719.85–227.34 | 0.308 | −321.78 | −624.19–−19.36 | 0.037 | −309.63 | −930.66–311.39 | 0.328 | 516.37 | 63.07–969.67 | 0.026 |
ODA | −19.80 | −380.65–341.04 | 0.914 | 625.44 | 281.27–969.61 | <0.001 | - | - | - | 2106.21 | 1479.22–2733.21 | <0.001 |
DAB | −200.32 | −487.30–86.67 | 0.171 | - | - | - | - | - | - | −12.30 | −101.99–77.39 | 0.787 |
MS | −1607.94 | −2100.06–−115.82 | <0.001 | 170.95 | −274.07–615.97 | 0.450 | 490.77 | −213.39–1194.94 | 0.172 | −2155.62 | −2855.17–−1456.06 | <0.001 |
TCL | 220.32 | −875.01–434.37 | 0.509 | - | - | - | −4037.73 | −6015.10–−2060.36 | <0.001 | 141.44 | −187.34–470.23 | 0.398 |
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Name | Years | Definitions | Citation |
---|---|---|---|
Malaria Incidence (per 100,000 population) | 2000–2019 | The number of new cases in a year divided by the mid-year population size; per 100,000 population. | [52] |
Total Malaria Spending per Person (constant 2019 USD$) | 2000–2017 | Total malaria spending (government, out-of-pocket, prepaid private) per person (constant 2019 United States Dollars) | [53] |
Agricultural land (% of land area) | 2000–2019 | Agricultural land refers to the share of land area that is arable, under permanent crops, and under permanent pastures. | [54] |
Agricultural, forestry, and fishing, value added (% of GDP) | 2000–2019 | Agriculture, forestry, and fishing; includes forestry, hunting, and fishing, as well as cultivation of crops and livestock production. Value added is the net output of a sector after adding up all outputs and subtracting intermediate inputs. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or depletion and degradation of natural resources. | [55] |
Forest area (% of land area) | 2000–2019 | Forest area is land under natural or planted stands of trees of at least 5 m in situ, whether productive or not, and excludes tree stands in agricultural production systems (for example, in fruit plantations and agroforestry systems) and trees in urban parks and gardens. | [56] |
GDP per capita (current USD) | 2000–2019 | GDP per capita is gross domestic product divided by midyear population. GDP is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products. It is calculated without making deductions for the depreciation of fabricated assets or for the depletion and degradation of natural resources. | [57] |
Total natural resources rent (% of GDP) | 2000–2019 | Total natural resources rents are the sum of oil rents, natural gas rents, coal rents (hard and soft), mineral rents, and forest rents. | [58] |
Net ODA received (% of GNI) | 2000–2019 | Net official development assistance is disbursement flows (net of repayment of principal) that meet the DAC definition of ODA and are made to countries and territories on the DAC list of aid recipients. | [59] |
Universal health coverage (UHC) service coverage index | 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015–2019 | Coverage of essential health services (defined as the average coverage of essential services based on tracer interventions that include reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health, infectious diseases, non-communicable diseases, and service capacity and access among the general and the most disadvantaged population). The indicator is an index reported on a unitless scale of 0 to 100, which is computed as the geometric mean of 14 tracer indicators of health service coverage. | [60] |
Average proportion of Terrestrial Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs) covered by protected areas (%) | 2000–2019 | Proportion of important sites for terrestrial biodiversity that are covered by protected areas. | [61] |
Total official development assistance for biodiversity by recipient countries (millions of constant 2020 USD) | 2002–2019 | Official development assistance on conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity, defined as gross disbursements of total Official Development Assistance (ODA) from all donors for biodiversity by recipient country. | [62] |
Country tree cover loss (km2) | 2001–2019 | Country tree cover loss: Hectares of tree cover loss at a national level between 2001 and 2021. Tree cover is defined as all vegetation greater than 5 m in height and may take the form of natural forests or plantations across a range of canopy densities. “Loss” indicates the removal or mortality of tree cover categorized by percent canopy cover in 2000 (≥30% threshold) and can be due to a variety of factors, including mechanical harvesting, fire, disease, or storm damage. As such, “loss” does not equate to deforestation. | [10] Global Administrative Areas Database, version 3.6. Available at http://gadm.org/ (accessed 12 Janauary 2023) |
GLOBAL | TROPICAL AMERICAS | AFRICA | ASIA | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Estimates | CI | p | Estimates | CI | p | Estimates | CI | p | Estimates | CI | p | |
(Intercept) | 8.44 × 105 | 6.170 × 105–1.072 × 106 | <0.001 | 5.10 × 104 | 3.33 × 104–1.35 × 105 | <0.001 | 4.86 × 105 | 3.82 × 14–9.34 × 105 | 0.033 | 3.69 × 105 | 2.51 × 105–4.86 × 105 | <0.001 |
Year | −410.94 | −524.82–−297.07 | <0.001 | −23.61 | −65.71–18.50 | 0.271 | −227.43 | −452.93–−1.93 | 0.048 | −187.51 | −246.65–−128.38 | <0.001 |
FA | 15.79 | −106.08–137.67 | 0.799 | −10.32 | −49.60–28.97 | 0.606 | 215.94 | 47.65–384.22 | 0.012 | −9.29 | −60.65–42.07 | 0.722 |
KBA | 2.91 | −32.29–38.10 | 0.871 | 21.49 | 9.65–33.32 | <0.001 | −22.04 | −74.28–30.20 | 0.408 | 72.63 | 42.66–102.61 | <0.001 |
UHC | −23.50 | −102.47–55.47 | 0.559 | −35.88 | −63.99–−7.77 | 0.013 | −395.92 | −570.36–−221.48 | <0.001 | 80.89 | 47.70−114.08 | <0.001 |
AL | −74.67 | −188.79–39.44 | 0.199 | −34.76 | −70.64–1.11 | 0.057 | 67.65 | −109.26–244.56 | 0.453 | 71.18 | −4.05–146.41 | 0.064 |
AFF | 8.41 | −48.60–65.43 | 0.772 | 75.10 | 22.49–127.72 | 0.005 | 53.52 | −25.94–132.99 | 0.186 | 64.55 | 33.16–95.94 | <0.001 |
GDP | 0.56 | 0.37–0.75 | <0.001 | −0.10 | −0.16–−0.03 | 0.003 | 0.19 | −0.13–0.51 | 0.250 | - | - | - |
NRR | −23.51 | −68.72–21.70 | 0.308 | −30.72 | −59.58–−1.85 | 0.037 | −29.56 | −88.84–29.73 | 0.328 | 49.29 | 6.02–92.56 | 0.026 |
ODA | −2.55 | −49.02–43.92 | 0.914 | 80.55 | 36.23–124.88 | <0.001 | - | - | - | 271.27 | 190.51–352.02 | <0.001 |
DAB | −2.89 | −7.03–1.25 | 0.171 | - | - | - | - | - | - | −0.18 | −1.47–1.12 | 0.787 |
MS | −651.97 | −851.51–−452.43 | <0.001 | 69.31 | −111.13–249.76 | 0.450 | 198.99 | −86.52–484.51 | 0.172 | −874.04 | −1157.68–−590.39 | <0.001 |
TCL | −0.05 | −0.21–0.10 | 0.509 | - | - | - | −0.95 | −1.42–−0.49 | <0.001 | 0.03 | −0.04–0.11 | 0.398 |
Random Effects | ||||||||||||
σ2 | 1.472 × 107 | σ2 | 5.329 × 105 | σ2 | 2.038 × 107 | σ2 | 6.866 × 105 | |||||
ICC | 0.95 | ICC | 0.81 | ICC | 0.88 | ICC | 0.97 | |||||
Marginal R2/Conditional R2 | 0.043/0.955 | Marginal R2/Conditional R2 | 0.369/0.882 | Marginal R2/Conditional R2 | 0.209/0.908 | Marginal R2/Conditional R2 | 0.163/0.976 | |||||
K-fold Cross Validation | ||||||||||||
RMSE | 3902.758 | RMSE | 767.204 | RMSE | 4595.974 | RMSE | 877.666 | |||||
NRMSE (RMSE/mean (y)) | 0.260 | NRMSE (RMSE/mean (y)) | 0.8601 | NRMSE (RMSE/mean (y)) | 0.174 | NRMSE (RMSE/mean (y)) | 0.533 | |||||
NRMSE (RMSE/y max–y min) | 0.066 | NRMSE (RMSE/y max–y min) | 0.0814 | NRMSE (RMSE/y max–y min) | 0.078 | NRMSE (RMSE/y max–y min) | 0.043 |
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Bailey, A.; Prist, P.R. Landscape and Socioeconomic Factors Determine Malaria Incidence in Tropical Forest Countries. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2024, 21, 576. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph21050576
Bailey A, Prist PR. Landscape and Socioeconomic Factors Determine Malaria Incidence in Tropical Forest Countries. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2024; 21(5):576. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph21050576
Chicago/Turabian StyleBailey, Allison, and Paula R. Prist. 2024. "Landscape and Socioeconomic Factors Determine Malaria Incidence in Tropical Forest Countries" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 21, no. 5: 576. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph21050576