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Forests 2017, 8(3), 77; doi:10.3390/f8030077

Determining Ideal Timing of Row Thinning for a Cryptomeria japonica Plantation Using Event History Analysis

1
Department of Geography, National Taiwan University, Taipei 10617, Taiwan
2
Taiwan Forestry Research Institute, Taipei 10066, Taiwan
3
Department of Forestry and Natural Resources, National Ilan University, Ilan 26047, Taiwan
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Jean-Claude Ruel
Received: 18 January 2017 / Revised: 23 February 2017 / Accepted: 8 March 2017 / Published: 11 March 2017
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [6057 KB, uploaded 13 March 2017]   |  

Abstract

Effective time of thinning is essential for determining a silvicultural operation schedule. One of the most commonly used methods is the percentage of radial increase to assess the effect of thinning. However, it is difficult to determine the ideal time point due to variation in tree growth rates. Event history analysis was used to quantify the optimal timings for different row thinning types for a 45-year-old Cryptomeria japonica plantation in the mountainous region of Taiwan. The increase in tree-ring size was measured and converted to the basal area increment (BAI) to estimate annual tree growth; derived time-series data were entered into event history analysis to calculate the time to 50% probability of survival. Additionally, an accelerated failure time regression was applied to test the effects of thinning and its timing; model validation was carried out to examine the influence of thinning time variation on plant growth through time. Results showed that thinning modified the temporal dynamics of the BAI, and, in general, a positive trend was observed between strip-width and time of thinning. Simulated tree growth in the model validation corroborated that accurate timing may optimize thinning effects. Combining tree-ring measurement and event history analysis may facilitate determining the timing of row thinning, which can improve carbon sequestration of forest stands. View Full-Text
Keywords: accelerated failure time regression; carbon sequestration; dendroecology; Kaplan-Meyer method; Taiwan accelerated failure time regression; carbon sequestration; dendroecology; Kaplan-Meyer method; Taiwan
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MDPI and ACS Style

Chung, C.-H.; Lin, C.-J.; Lin, S.-T.; Huang, C.-Y. Determining Ideal Timing of Row Thinning for a Cryptomeria japonica Plantation Using Event History Analysis. Forests 2017, 8, 77.

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