Adm. Sci., Volume 6, Issue 3 (September 2016) – 5 articles

The uncertainty management theory has become well established over the last 20–30 years. However, the authors suggest that it does not fully address why opportunities often remain unexploited. Empirical studies show a stronger focus on mitigating risks than exploiting opportunities. This paper therefore addresses why so few opportunities are explored in large projects. The theory claims that risks and opportunities should be equally managed in the same process. In two surveys, conducted in six (private and public) companies over a four-year period, project managers stated that uncertainty management is about managing risk and opportunities. However, two case studies from 12 projects from the same companies revealed that all of them had their main focus on risks, and most of the opportunities were left unexploited. We have developed a theoretical explanation model to shed light on this phenomena. The concept is a reflection based on findings from our empirical data up against current project management, uncertainty, risk and stakeholder literature. Our model shows that the threshold for pursuing a potential opportunity is high. If a potential opportunity should be considered, it must be extremely interesting, since it may require contract changes, and the project must abandon an earlier-accepted best solution. Full article

Background: Cross-discipline team collaboration between the project ownership team, design team and project delivery team is central to effective management of risk, uncertainty and ambiguity. A recently-developed framework that was developed to provide a visualisation tool to enable various project procurement and delivery forms has been adapted to answer the research question How can uncertainty best be managed in complex projects? Methods: The research involved reviewing transcribed recorded interviews with 50 subject matter experts that was originally analysed using axial coding with Nvivo 10 software to develop the framework that the paper refers to. It extends analysis to focus on risk and uncertainty previously reported upon in that study. Results and Conclusions: The adaptation presents a hypothetical partnering and alliancing project collaboration map taken from a risk and uncertainty management perspective and it also refines its focus on coping and sensemaking mechanisms to help manage risk-uncertainty in a practical and ‘how to do’ manner. This contributes to theory by extending the relationship based procurement (RBP) framework from taking a purely procurement theory focus to being applied in a risk-uncertainty project management theory domain. It also provides a practice contribution by explaining how the RBP mutation to a collaboration and risk-uncertainty management framework may be applied. Full article

This study investigates the nature of the energy policy making process and policy priorities within the OECD in order to identify opportunities for improvement in these processes and to improve sustainability outcomes. The Qualitative Content Analysis methodology is used, investigating governance and energy policy making alongside energy policy goals and priorities within eight OECD nations. A congruous energy policy making process (policy cycle) is discovered across the assessed nations, including the responsible bodies for each stage of the policy cycle and the current energy policy priorities. A key weakness was identified as a disconnect between the early stages of the policy cycle, issue identification and policy tool formulation, and the latter stages of implementation and evaluation. This weakness has meant that the social aspects of sustainability goals have been less developed than environmental and economic aspects and a heavy burden has been placed on the evaluation phase, risking a break down in the policy cycle. An additional “policy design” stage is proposed including a sustainability evaluation process prior to decision making and implementation, in order to remedy these identified shortcomings. Full article

This paper differs from scientific papers describing current research. In line with the theme of this special issue, it challenges conventional risk management practice against the background of former research results successfully finished decades ago. It is well-known that conventional practice frequently results in budget overruns of large projects. International reviews document that. Severe delays of schedules are also well-known. This paper describes successful research results from almost three decades ago, which successfully challenges this severe problem and has led to new practices. The research involved is an unusual mix: Scandinavian researchers from psychology, statistical theory and engineering economy. The resulting procedure has been widely used since around 1990 and challenges conventional procedures. The procedure is documented to be able to yield statistically correct prognoses, when the “rules of the game” have been correctly followed. After a short summary of the basic situation, this paper summarizes the research, followed by some resulting experiences, focusing on two recent studies each of 40 infrastructures and other major projects. In both sets, the actual final cost largely equaled the expected project cost. This result is a marked change from international past and present experience. Finally, the need for further research and progress is discussed. Full article