Climate, Volume 4, Issue 1 (March 2016) – 15 articles

Climate change has severe impacts on natural resources, food production and consequently on food security especially in developing countries. Likely accentuated by climate change, flooding is one of the disasters that affects people and destroies agricultural land and products. At different governance levels and scales, appropriate responses are needed. Cluster analysis using scaled at-site characteristics was used to determine homogeneous rainfall regions. A methodology for detecting change was applied to heavy daily rainfall of 34 stations across the Ouémé basin, Benin, in order to assess potential change in its characteristics. The spatial variability of the detected changes in return periods was analyzed using the kriging interpolation method. For this analysis, up to 92 years (1921–2012) of rainfall data were used. Three homogeneous regions were found by the cluster analysis. For all studied return periods, 82% of the stations showed statistically significant change in daily precipitation, among which 57% exhibited a positive change and 43% negative change. A positive change is associated with an increase in heavy rainfall over the area of concern. An analysis of the interpolated change in heavy rainfall of different return periods revealed an east-west gradient from negative to positive along the lower Ouémé basin (Region 2). From the middle to the upper Ouémé (Region 1 and 3), a decreasing tendency of heavy rainfall is dominant mainly for the non-homogeneous period. This result of the complex pattern of changes could be veritable information for decision makers and consequently for development of appropriate adaptation measures. Full article

The annual cycle of Indian monsoon rainfall plays a critical role in the agricultural as well as the industrial sector. Thus, it is necessary to evaluate the behaviour of the monsoon annual cycle in a warming climate. There are several studies on the variability and uncertainty of the Indian monsoon. This study, examines the impact of climate change on the annual cycle of monsoon rainfall in India from 1871–2100 by applying 20 model simulations designed by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) coupled with the model inter-comparison Project 5 (CMIP5). It is found that the models MPI-ESM-LR, INM-CM4 and MRI-CGCM3 best capture the spatial patterns of the monsoon rainfall peak month (MRPM) of the winter monsoon compared to observations, whereas HadGEM2-AO and MIROC-ESM-CHEM best capture the MRPM of the summer monsoon. The MIROC, MIROC-ESM, and MIROC-ESM-CHEM models best capture the average rainfall intensity as well as the MRPM of all-India rainfall. This paper examines the future spatial distribution of the MRPM for meteorological sub-divisions of India, that can have crucial implications for water resources and management. Although the future projections as per the CMIP5 models indicate no changes in the MRPM of the all-India rainfall, a reduction in average intensity can be expected. The projections indicate a shift in the MRPM in some meteorological sub-divisions, particularly with regard to the summer monsoon but no significant change has been projected for the winter monsoon. For example, the summer monsoon MRPM is projected to move from July to August in northern and central India. Full article

Several studies have concluded that mountainous countries such as Nepal are more vulnerable to climate change; thus, a changing climate should have a significant impact on crop yields. This work aims to explore the impact of climate change on major crop yields in the mountainous parts of Nepal and to determine their relationships based on a regression model between historical climatic data and yield data for food crops. The study starts with an analysis of the last 30 years of climatic data from Lamjung district. Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope methods have been used for the trend analysis and quantification. The results showed an increase in temperature of approximately 0.02 °C to 0.07 °C per year in different seasons and a mixed trend in precipitation. Although there was no significant impact of the climate variables on the yields of all crops, the regression analysis revealed negative relationships between maize yield and summer precipitation and between wheat yield and winter minimum temperature, and a positive relationship between millet yield and summer maximum temperature. Full article

Forest-dependent indigenous communities rely on natural resources for their livelihoods, but those are currently under threat due to many factors, including the adverse impact of climate change. The present study looks into climate change-related perception and adaptation strategies of three forest-dependent indigenous communities, namely, Khasia, Tripura and Garo in the Lawachara National Park of Northeastern Bangladesh. Household surveys, focus group discussions, key informant interviews, and observation methods were used to unveil the climatic events, impacts and related adaptations. The events include the change in temperature and rainfall patterns, landslide, soil erosion and flash flood, heavy cold and fog, and natural calamities. Moreover, livelihood problems emanating from these events are the drying up of streams and wells, irregular rainfall, increased dieback and mortality of seedlings, pests, diseases, and the attack of crops by wild animals. Likewise, the reduction of soil moisture content, growing season and crop productivity, landslides, damage of roads and culverts, and increased human diseases are common. This study recognized 29 adaptation strategies and divided them into six management categories, drawing on their local knowledge of the natural resources and other technologies. The study reveals that, although adaptation strategies through land use and land cover changes are not enough to sustain their livelihoods, the tactics help them to reduce the risk of, and increase food security and community resilience against, climate change. Full article

Climate changes imposed differential impacts on Bangladesh in the form of sea level rise, extreme events, and variability, which has enormous economic, environmental and social cost. Such impacts are assorted across the ecosystems of the Southwest, Northwest and Central region of the country. Among the different sectors, agriculture is comparatively more vulnerable to climate change impacts. In order to reduce the climate change induced loss and damage, a series of adaptation options have been being practiced by the people at the local level for many years, but the effectiveness, profitability, and sustainability of such adaptation options are still not too well investigated or understood. From this backdrop, the study intends to identify, prioritize and evaluate the adaptation options in the agriculture of different ecosystems of Bangladesh. It is found that the economic gain of adopting rice prawn farming, replantation of rice, and saline tolerant and short duration rice varieties are much higher than the other adaption options. Through investing $10 in such adaptation options, $22, $4, $2 and $2 net return will be provided, respectively. Unavailability and less affordability are impeding the promotion of some effective adaption options, which require more attention from policy makers, while further research, demonstration and capacity building of the farmers will reduce vulnerability and build resilience. Full article

Variation in quantities such as precipitation and temperature is often assessed by detecting and characterizing trends in available meteorological data. The objective of this study was to determine the long-term trends in annual precipitation and mean annual air temperature for the state of Kentucky. Non-parametric statistical tests were applied to homogenized and (as needed) pre-whitened annual series of precipitation and mean air temperature during 1950–2010. Significant trends in annual precipitation were detected (both positive, averaging 4.1 mm/year) for only two of the 60 precipitation-homogenous weather stations (Calloway and Carlisle counties in rural western Kentucky). Only three of the 42 temperature-homogenous stations demonstrated trends (all positive, averaging 0.01 °C/year) in mean annual temperature: Calloway County, Allen County in southern-central Kentucky, and urbanized Jefferson County in northern-central Kentucky. In view of the locations of the stations demonstrating positive trends, similar work in adjacent states will be required to better understand the processes responsible for those trends and to properly place them in their larger context, if any. Full article

In this study, past (1970-2005) as well as future long term (2011-2099) trends in various extreme events of temperature and precipitation have been investigated over selected hydro-meteorological stations in the Sutlej river basin. The ensembles of two Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) models: third generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model and Hadley Centre Coupled Model have been used for simulation of future daily time series of temperature (maximum and minimum) and precipitation under A2 emission scenario. Large scale atmospheric variables of both models and National Centre for Environmental Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data sets have been downscaled using statistical downscaling technique at individual stations. A total number of 25 extreme indices of temperature (14) and precipitation (11) as specified by the Expert Team of the World Meteorological Organization and Climate Variability and Predictability are derived for the past and future periods. Trends in extreme indices are detected over time using the modified Mann-Kendall test method. The stations which have shown either decrease or no change in hot extreme events (i.e., maximum T_Max, warm days, warm nights, maximum T_Min, tropical nights, summer days and warm spell duration indicators) for 1970–2005 and increase in cold extreme events (cool days, cool nights, frost days and cold spell duration indicators) are predicted to increase and decrease respectively in the future. In addition, an increase in frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events is also predicted. Full article

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2014, suggests that an important increase in frequency and magnitude of hazardous processes related to climate change is to be expected at the global scale. Consequently, it is necessary to improve the level of preparedness and the level of public awareness, to fill institutional gaps, and to improve territorial planning in order to reduce the potentially disastrous impact of natural hazards related to climate change. This paper mainly presents a new framework for risk assessment and mapping which enables countries with limited data sources to assess their risk to climate change related hazards at the local level, in order to reduce potential costs, to develop risk reduction strategies, to harmonize their preparedness efforts with neighboring countries and to deal with trans-boundary risk. The methodology is based on the European Commission’s “Risk Assessment and Mapping Guidelines for Disaster Management” (2010) and considers local restrictions, such as a lack of documentation of historic disastrous events, spatial and other relevant data, offering alternative options for risk assessment, and the production of risk maps. The methodology is based on event tree analysis. It was developed within the European project SEERISK and adapted for a number of climate change-related hazards including floods, heat waves, wildfires, and storms. Additionally, the framework offers the possibility for risk assessment under different future scenarios. The implications for climate change adaptation policy are discussed. Full article

Recently, considerable focus, e.g., in the fifth IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Assessment Report (2014) has been trained on why adaptation and mitigation have not been developed more than at present, with relatively few local government actions taken compared with, for example, more discursive policy agreement on the importance of the issue of climate change. Going beyond a focus on general limits and barriers, this comment suggests that one important issue is that climate change has not yet been sufficiently integrated into the state regulative structure of legislation and policy-making. A comparison between three cases suggests that local developments that are not supported in particular by binding regulation are unlikely to achieve the same general level of implementation as issues for which such regulative demands (and thereby also requirements for prioritization) exist. This constitutes an important consideration for the development of adaptation and mitigation as policy areas, including on the local level. Full article

This study investigates the effects of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on temperature and rainfall in Nigeria. The persistent rise in population with more demands for rainfall and water supply in Nigeria requires a better understanding of the impacts of ENSO (La Niña, El Niño) induced changes on the precipitation patterns under future climate conditions. Thus, we compared the sea surface temperature (SST) from the ENSO regions of the Tropical Pacific Ocean (Niño 3 (150°W–90°W, 5°S–5°N) and Niño 4 (160°E–150°W, 5°S–5°N)) with the observed temperature from Nigeria and the temperature is further compared with the associated rainfall. The results show that an increase or decrease in the Niño 3 and Niño 4 SST is accompanied by a corresponding change in the temperature over Nigeria; however, there is better agreement with the Niño 3 SST compared to the Niño 4 SST. The investigation suggests that a slight northward (southward) shift in the mean position of Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) during a La Niña (El Niño) event is followed by a reduction (increase) in the average temperature within Nigeria while the mean precipitation rises (reduces) over the country. These results could aid weather prediction which might improve the economy as well as save lives and property during climate-related hazards like drought, forest fires and floods. Full article

There are strong relationships between climate and ecosystems. With the prospect of anthropogenic forcing accelerating climate change, there is a need to understand how terrestrial vegetation responds to this change as it influences the carbon balance. Previous studies have primarily addressed this question using empirically based models relating the observed pattern of vegetation and climate, together with scenarios of potential future climate change, to predict how vegetation may redistribute. Unlike previous studies, here we use an advanced mechanistic, individually based, ecosystem model to predict the terrestrial vegetation response from future climate change. The use of such a model opens up opportunities to test with remote sensing data, and the possibility of simulating the transient response to climate change over large domains. The model was first run with a current climatology at half-degree resolution and compared to remote sensing data on dominant plant functional types for northern North America for validation. Future climate data were then used as inputs to predict the equilibrium response of vegetation in terms of dominant plant functional type and carbon redistribution. At the domain scale, total forest cover changed by ~2% and total carbon storage increased by ~8% in response to climate change. These domain level changes were the result of much larger gross changes within the domain. Evergreen forest cover decreased 48% and deciduous forest cover increased 77%. The dominant plant functional type changed on 58% of the sites, while total carbon in deciduous vegetation increased 107% and evergreen vegetation decreased 31%. The percent of terrestrial carbon from deciduous and evergreen plant functional types changed from 27%/73% under current climate conditions, to 54%/46% under future climate conditions. These large predicted changes in vegetation and carbon in response to future climate change are comparable to previous empirically based estimates, and motivate the need for future development with this mechanistic model to estimate the transient response to future climate changes. Full article

Improved irrigation use efficiency is an important tool for intensifying and diversifying agriculture in Nepal, resulting in higher economic yield from irrigated farmlands with a minimum input of water. Research was conducted to evaluate the effect of irrigation method (furrow vs. drip) on the productivity of nutritious fodder species during off-monsoon dry periods in different elevation zones of central Nepal. A split-block factorial design was used. The factors considered were treatment location, fodder crop, and irrigation method. Commonly used local agronomical practices were followed in all respects except irrigation method. Results revealed that location effect was significant (p < 0.01) with highest fodder productivity seen for the middle elevation site, Syangja. Species effects were also significant, with teosinte (Euchlaena mexicana) having higher yield than cowpea (Vigna unguiculata). Irrigation method impacted green biomass yield (higher with furrow irrigation) but both methods yielded similar dry biomass, while water use was 73% less under drip irrigation. Our findings indicated that the controlled application of water through drip irrigation is able to produce acceptable yields of nutritionally dense fodder species during dry seasons, leading to more effective utilization and resource conservation of available land, fertilizer and water. Higher productivity of these nutritional fodders resulted in higher milk productivity for livestock smallholders. The ability to grow fodder crops year-round in lowland and hill regions of Nepal with limited water storages using low-cost, water-efficient drip irrigation may greatly increase livestock productivity and, hence, the economic security of smallholder farmers. Full article

Previous work suggests that changes in seasonality could lead to a 70% reduction in the extent of the Amazon rainforest. The primary cause of the dieback of the rainforest is a lengthening of the dry season due to a weakening of the large-scale tropical circulation. Here we examine these changes in the seasonal cycle. Under present day conditions the Amazon climate is characterized by a zonal separation of the dominance of the annual and semi-annual seasonal cycles. This behavior is strongly modified under greenhouse warming conditions, with the annual cycle becoming dominant throughout the Amazon basin, increasing differences between the dry and wet seasons. In particular, there are substantial changes in the annual cycle of temperature due to the increase in the temperature of the warmest month, but the lengthening of the dry season is believed to be particularly important for vegetation-climate feedbacks. Harmonic analysis performed to regional climate model simulations yields results that differ from the global climate model that it is forced from, with the regional model being more sensitive to changes in the seasonal cycle. Full article

In response to climate change at different spatial scales, adaptation has become one of the focal points of current research and policy developments. In the context of coastal Cambodia, there is little research on local level adaptation to climate change. Using ordinal logistic and logistic regression analyses, this study examines the relationship between perceived self-efficacy and anticipatory and reactive adaptation to climate change among 1823 households in coastal communities in Cambodia. Findings indicate that individuals who reported higher categories of self-efficacy were more likely to report both anticipatory (OR = 1.74, p < 0.001) and reactive adaptation (OR = 3.61, p < 0.001) measures. Similary, tndividuals who had higher education had higher odds of reporting anticipatory adaptation (OR = 1.71, p < 0.001) and reactive adaptation (OR = 1.63, p < 0.05) when compared with those without formal education. Participants who have been living in their current residence for six years or more were more likely to report anticipatory adaptation (OR = 1.09, p < 0.05) and reactive adapation (OR = 1.22, p < 0.001) compared with those who had lived there for a shorter duration of time. Region of residence was positively associated with both anticipatory and reactive adaptation. In this context, it is important to note that individuals in the most agriculture-dependent and climate sensitive province reported the least anticipatory and reactive adaptation measures. Policy makers should target empowerment of the most vulnerable population to facilitate better adaptation behavior, and mainstreaming of knowledge on climate change adaptation through both formal and informal education at the community level. Full article