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Climate, Volume 5, Issue 3 (September 2017)

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Research

Open AccessArticle Hydrologic Alterations Predicted by Seasonally-Consistent Subset Ensembles of General Circulation Models
Climate 2017, 5(3), 44; doi:10.3390/cli5030044
Received: 17 May 2017 / Revised: 16 June 2017 / Accepted: 21 June 2017 / Published: 26 June 2017
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Abstract
Future climate forcing data at the temporal and spatial scales needed to drive hydrologic models are not readily available. Simple methods to derive these data from historical data or General Circulation Model (GCM) results may not adequately capture future hydrological variability. This study
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Future climate forcing data at the temporal and spatial scales needed to drive hydrologic models are not readily available. Simple methods to derive these data from historical data or General Circulation Model (GCM) results may not adequately capture future hydrological variability. This study assessed streamflow response to daily future climate forcing data produced by a new method using subsets of multi-model GCM ensembles for the mid-21st century period in northeast Kansas. Daily timeseries of precipitation and temperature were developed for six future climate scenarios: stationary, uniform 10% changes in precipitation; shifts based on a 15-GCM ensemble-mean; and shifts based on three seasonally-consistent subsets of GCMs representing Spring–Summer combinations that were wetter or drier than the historical period. The analysis of daily streamflow and hydrologic index statistics were conducted. Stationary 10% precipitation shifts generally bounded the monthly mean streamflow projections of the other scenarios, and the 15-GCM ensemble-mean captured non-stationary effects of annual and seasonal hydrological response, but did not identify important intra-annual shifts in drought and flood characteristics. The seasonally-consistent subset ensembles produced a range of distinct monthly streamflow trends, particularly for extreme low-flow and high-flow events. Meaningful water management and planning for the future will require hydrological impact simulations that reflect the range of possible future climates. Use of GCM ensemble-mean climate forcing data without consideration of the range of seasonal patterns among models was demonstrated to remove important seasonal hydrologic patterns that were retained in the subset ensemble-mean approach. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Modified Hydrological Cycle under Global Warming)
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Open AccessArticle Assessment of Groundwater Resources in the Context of Climate Change and Population Growth: Case of the Klela Basin in Southern Mali
Climate 2017, 5(3), 45; doi:10.3390/cli5030045
Received: 12 June 2017 / Revised: 26 June 2017 / Accepted: 27 June 2017 / Published: 1 July 2017
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Abstract
Groundwater in the Klela basin in Mali, a subbasin of the Bani basin (one of the main tributaries of the Niger River), is required for domestic use, irrigation and livestock. Furthermore, water supply of the city of Sikasso directly depends on the groundwater
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Groundwater in the Klela basin in Mali, a subbasin of the Bani basin (one of the main tributaries of the Niger River), is required for domestic use, irrigation and livestock. Furthermore, water supply of the city of Sikasso directly depends on the groundwater resources, which are under pressure caused by increased water demand as well as climate variability and climate change. As a consequence, freshwater availability is being threatened which can have a direct negative impact on irrigation agriculture. The aim of this study was to evaluate future behavior of groundwater resources in the context of climate change and population growth using socio-economic and population growth scenarios for water demand and the Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) data for calculating groundwater recharge using the Thornthwaite model. The WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning system) model was applied to balance water availability and demand and to compute changes in groundwater storage up to 2050. The overall results show that groundwater recharge as well as storage is decreasing over time, especially in the 2030s which can lead to severe agricultural droughts in this period. Recharge declined by approximatively 49% and stored groundwater by 24% over the study period. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Impacts and Resilience in the Developing World)
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Open AccessArticle Global Warming and Tea Production—The Bibliometric View on a Newly Emerging Research Topic
Climate 2017, 5(3), 46; doi:10.3390/cli5030046
Received: 7 June 2017 / Revised: 29 June 2017 / Accepted: 1 July 2017 / Published: 4 July 2017
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Abstract
In this study, we analyzed the newly emerging research field of climate change in combination with tea production. We adapted a valid search query to cover the relevant literature as completely as possible and to exclude irrelevant literature. The search resulted in a
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In this study, we analyzed the newly emerging research field of climate change in combination with tea production. We adapted a valid search query to cover the relevant literature as completely as possible and to exclude irrelevant literature. The search resulted in a publication set of 14 key papers dealing with the implications of climate change for tea production as well as 71 papers citing at least one of the 14 key papers. The VOSviewer software was used for revealing the thematic content of the publication set based on the analysis of the keywords. The analysis illustrates the importance of climate change for tea production and mirrors the emerging discussion on climate change impacts and adaptation strategies. Questions regarding the historical context of research fields or specific research topics can be answered by using a bibliometric method called “Reference Publication Year Spectroscopy” (RPYS). The standard RPYS, as well as RPYS-CO, which is based on co-citations of a marker paper, were applied and the most important publication in the historical context of climate change in combination with tea production was identified: both RPYS analyses revealed a paper by M.A. Wijeratne working at the Tea Research Institute (TRI) in Sri Lanka as the starting point of the newly emerging research topic. Currently, the research topic is stimulated by research projects and publications of Selena Ahmed at the Montana State University (USA). Full article
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Open AccessArticle Variations of Rainfall Rhythm in Alto Pardo Watershed, Brazil: Analysis of Two Specific Years, a Wet and a Dry One, and Their Relation with the River Flow
Climate 2017, 5(3), 47; doi:10.3390/cli5030047
Received: 1 May 2017 / Revised: 26 June 2017 / Accepted: 28 June 2017 / Published: 4 July 2017
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Abstract
This research aims to understand the variability and rhythm of rainfall for two specific standard-years, and their relation with the river flow of the Alto Pardo watershed, located in southeastern Brazil, and thus identify atmospheric systems that can cause extreme events, and which
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This research aims to understand the variability and rhythm of rainfall for two specific standard-years, and their relation with the river flow of the Alto Pardo watershed, located in southeastern Brazil, and thus identify atmospheric systems that can cause extreme events, and which may be reflected in heavy rainfall, floods, or drought episodes. Therefore, the research chose to investigate the years 1983 and 1984, rainy and dry standard-years respectively in the study area, where rainfall was described and spatialized through the geostatistical method of kriging at the monthly level and the rhythmic analysis technique was applied in order to identify what weather types are usual and extreme in the area. The results indicate that a high involvement of the frontal system in the year 1983 was responsible for the episodes of greater rainfall and peak water flow, especially in stationary front episodes. The year 1984 presented low rainfall in summer, a meteorological drought during the year, and the predominance of tropical air masses in relation to the frontal systems. The comparison between the two extreme years, a wet and a dry one, made it possible to understand the frequency and the chaining of the atmospheric systems during this period for the Alto Pardo watershed. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Studies and Perspectives of Climatology in Brazil)
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Open AccessArticle Evaluating the Effect of Physics Schemes in WRF Simulations of Summer Rainfall in North West Iran
Climate 2017, 5(3), 48; doi:10.3390/cli5030048
Received: 3 May 2017 / Revised: 27 June 2017 / Accepted: 2 July 2017 / Published: 6 July 2017
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Abstract
The numerical weather forecast model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) has a range of applications because it offers multiple physical options, enabling the users to optimizing WRF for specific scales, geographical locations and applications. Summer rainfall cannot be predicted well in North West
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The numerical weather forecast model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) has a range of applications because it offers multiple physical options, enabling the users to optimizing WRF for specific scales, geographical locations and applications. Summer rainfall cannot be predicted well in North West of Iran (NWI). Most of them are convective. Sometimes rainfall is heavy, so that it causes flash flood. In this research, some configurations of WRF were tested with four summer rainfall events in NWI to find the best configuration. Five cumulus, four planetary boundary layers (PBL) and two microphysical schemes were combined. Twenty-six different configurations (models) were implemented at two resolutions of 5 and 15 km for duration of 48 h. Four events, with over 20 mm convective daily rainfall total, were selected at NWI during summer season between 2010 and 2015. These events were tested by developing 26 unique models. Results were verified using several methods. The aim was to find the best results during the first 24 h. Although no single configuration can be introduced for all times, thresholds, and atmospheric system to provide reliable and accurate forecast, the best configuration for WRF can be identified. Kain-Fritsch (new Eta), Betts-Miller-Janjic, Modified Kain-Fritsch, Multi-scale Kain-Fritsch and newer Tiedtke cumulus schemes and Mellor-Yamada-Janjic, Shin-Hong ‘scale-aware’, Medium Range Forecast (MRF) and Yonsei University (YSU) Planetary Boundary Layer schemes and Kessler, WRF Single Moment 3 class simple ice (WSM3) microphysics schemes were selected. The result show that Cumulus schemes are the most sensitive and Microphysics schemes are the less sensitive. The comparison of 15 km and 5 km resolution simulations do not show obvious advantages in downscaling the results. Configuration with newer Tiedtke cumulus, Mellor-Yamada-Janjic PBL, WSM3 and Kessler microphysics schemes give the best results for the 5 and 15 km resolutions. The output image of models and statistical methods verification indexes show that WRF could not accurately simulate convective rainfall in the NWI in summer. Full article
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Open AccessArticle Climate and Production: The Case of the Administrative Region of Grande Dourados, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil
Climate 2017, 5(3), 49; doi:10.3390/cli5030049
Received: 28 April 2017 / Revised: 1 July 2017 / Accepted: 4 July 2017 / Published: 8 July 2017
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Abstract
In the academic literature we can find a wide range of studies in climatology which show that current land management methods are contributing to an increase in environmental impact on the planet. These studies in climatology not only analyze atmospheric data, but also
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In the academic literature we can find a wide range of studies in climatology which show that current land management methods are contributing to an increase in environmental impact on the planet. These studies in climatology not only analyze atmospheric data, but also require a wide knowledge of the researcher’s regional interests for territorial planning. This article aims to explain the characteristics and tendencies used in the territory of the administrative region of Grande Dourados, in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil, and the environmental implications of this process of land exploration. Then, we analyze several climatological surveys carried out by the physical geography laboratory of the Federal University of Grande Dourados and the socio-economic and environmental research group of Mato Grosso do Sul. The results demonstrate how important it is to develop strong measures to valorize environmental actions in the area. Climatic parameters can also exacerbate more extreme regional climate patterns, an exacerbation that has a strong spatio-temporal aspect, and also has a direct relation to the various climatological scales. This type of research is pioneering work in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul and in Brazil, and it will contribute to further academic work which will discuss the important relations between land production and climate impact in the near future. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Studies and Perspectives of Climatology in Brazil)
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Open AccessArticle Effects of the Lake Sobradinho Reservoir (Northeastern Brazil) on the Regional Climate
Climate 2017, 5(3), 50; doi:10.3390/cli5030050
Received: 15 May 2017 / Revised: 8 July 2017 / Accepted: 10 July 2017 / Published: 13 July 2017
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Abstract
This study investigates the effects of Lake Sobradinho, a large reservoir in Northeastern Brazil, on the local near-surface atmospheric and boundary layer conditions. For this purpose, simulations with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM are compared for two different scenarios: (1) with the lake
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This study investigates the effects of Lake Sobradinho, a large reservoir in Northeastern Brazil, on the local near-surface atmospheric and boundary layer conditions. For this purpose, simulations with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM are compared for two different scenarios: (1) with the lake being replaced by the average normal native vegetation cover and (2) with the lake as it exists today, for two different two-month periods reflecting average and very dry conditions, respectively. The performance of the simulation is evaluated against data from surface meteorological stations as well as satellite data in order to ensure the model’s ability to capture atmospheric conditions in the vicinity of Lake Sobradinho. The obtained results demonstrate that the lake affects the near-surface air temperature of the surrounding area as well as its humidity and wind patterns. Specifically, Lake Sobradinho cools down the air during the day and warms it up during the night by up to several C depending on the large-scale meteorological conditions. Moreover, the humidity is significantly increased as a result of the lake’s presence and causes a lake breeze. The observed effects on humidity and air temperature also extend over areas relatively far away from the lake. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Studies and Perspectives of Climatology in Brazil)
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Open AccessArticle Blended Drought Index: Integrated Drought Hazard Assessment in the Cuvelai-Basin
Climate 2017, 5(3), 51; doi:10.3390/cli5030051
Received: 30 May 2017 / Revised: 6 July 2017 / Accepted: 8 July 2017 / Published: 13 July 2017
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Abstract
Drought is one of the major threats to societies in Sub-Saharan Africa, as the majority of the population highly depends on rain-fed subsistence agriculture and traditional water supply systems. Hot-spot areas of potential drought impact need to be identified to reduce risk and
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Drought is one of the major threats to societies in Sub-Saharan Africa, as the majority of the population highly depends on rain-fed subsistence agriculture and traditional water supply systems. Hot-spot areas of potential drought impact need to be identified to reduce risk and adapt a growing population to a changing environment. This paper presents the Blended Drought Index (BDI), an integrated tool for estimating the impact of drought as a climate-induced hazard in the semi-arid Cuvelai-Basin of Angola and Namibia. It incorporates meteorological and agricultural drought characteristics that impair the population’s ability to ensure food and water security. The BDI uses a copula function to combine common standardized drought indicators that describe precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture and vegetation conditions. Satellite remote sensing products were processed to analyze drought frequency, severity and duration. As the primary result, an integrated drought hazard map was built to spatially depict drought hot-spots. Temporally, the BDI correlates well with millet/sorghum yield (r = 0.51) and local water consumption (r = −0.45) and outperforms conventional indicators. In the light of a drought’s multifaceted impact on society, the BDI is a simple and transferable tool to identify areas highly threatened by drought in an integrated manner. Full article
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Open AccessArticle Analysis of Climate Behavior and Land Use in the City of Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
Climate 2017, 5(3), 52; doi:10.3390/cli5030052
Received: 26 April 2017 / Revised: 20 June 2017 / Accepted: 11 July 2017 / Published: 14 July 2017
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Abstract
The city of Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) is located in a tropical zone of the planet, in medium latitude that experiences strong insolation throughout the year. The existence of different geographic factors, and different land uses and covers favor the diversity of existing
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The city of Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) is located in a tropical zone of the planet, in medium latitude that experiences strong insolation throughout the year. The existence of different geographic factors, and different land uses and covers favor the diversity of existing microclimates. This study aims to analyze the different land uses and covers during the last 30 years that impact the varying climatic conditions in the city of Rio de Janeiro, especially for the development of the urban heat and fresh islands. To accomplish this research, images were used from the satellites Landsat-5 and Landsat-7 to capture the apparent surface temperatures, and land use and land cover maps. Comparing these three decades (1986, 1997 and 2016), an increase in the temperatures of urban areas is noticeable toward the last year, 2016. The neighborhoods located in the West and North zones showed the highest temperatures. The areas near the Pedra Branca, Tijuca and Mendanha massifs showed lower temperatures. Therefore, it is possible to recognize a relationship between land cover and temperature behavior; the greenest areas tend to register lower temperatures, and the urban areas demonstrate higher temperatures. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Studies and Perspectives of Climatology in Brazil)
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Open AccessArticle Identification of Homogeneous Rainfall Regions in the Eastern Watersheds of the State of Paraná, Brazil
Climate 2017, 5(3), 53; doi:10.3390/cli5030053
Received: 19 April 2017 / Revised: 3 July 2017 / Accepted: 6 July 2017 / Published: 15 July 2017
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Abstract
The objectives of this study are to use a clustering technique to identify homogeneous rainfall regions in the watersheds of the eastern region of the state of Paraná and to associate the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall with the influences of orography,
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The objectives of this study are to use a clustering technique to identify homogeneous rainfall regions in the watersheds of the eastern region of the state of Paraná and to associate the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall with the influences of orography, the ocean and regional atmospheric dynamics. Rainfall data were obtained from 54 pluviometric stations and from eight meteorological stations, which comprise the historical series from 1976 to 2015. A cluster analysis technique was used with the Euclidean distance for measuring proximity and Ward’s method for hierarchical grouping. The Litorânea watershed exhibited the highest rainfall totals in the study area, and the annual average was 2551 mm for the homogeneous group with the highest rainfall. The Ribeira river watershed exhibited the lowest total rainfall (1488 mm); therefore, it was considered a rain shadow region with a more tropical climate due to the concentration of rainfall in the period from September to March. The Alto Iguaçu watershed was characterized by the smallest spatiotemporal variation in rainfall due to its flatter relief and the influence of the subtropical climate. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Studies and Perspectives of Climatology in Brazil)
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Open AccessArticle On the Use of Regression Models to Predict Tea Crop Yield Responses to Climate Change: A Case of Nandi East, Sub-County of Nandi County, Kenya
Climate 2017, 5(3), 54; doi:10.3390/cli5030054
Received: 21 June 2017 / Revised: 4 July 2017 / Accepted: 6 July 2017 / Published: 17 July 2017
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Abstract
Tea is a major cash crop in Kenya. Predicting the potential effects of climate change on tea crops prompts the use of statistical models to measure how the crop responds to climate variables. The statistical model was trained on historical tea yields, and
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Tea is a major cash crop in Kenya. Predicting the potential effects of climate change on tea crops prompts the use of statistical models to measure how the crop responds to climate variables. The statistical model was trained on historical tea yields, and how they related to past data on maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation over Nandi East Sub-County. Scatter diagrams for selected months were generated from tea yield and temperature data. A multiple linear model was developed to predict tea yield using climatic variables. A contingency table was used to verify the model. Results from an analysis of trends in rainfall depicted a positive trend and revealed an increased frequency of annual droughts. The study showed that the frequency of extreme rainfall events during September-October-November (SON) season has decreased. Results from an analysis of the trends in temperature revealed that the minimum temperatures are increasing and that the frequency of extreme events has increased. Rising maximum temperatures were observed in March. The study revealed that May, the cold month, is becoming warmer. Correlation analysis indicated that the climatic variables during some months in both the concurrent year and the previous year were positively correlated with the tea yield. However, there was an inverse relationship between maximum temperature and rainfall. Results of model verification revealed that that 70% of model forecasts were correct. The results also showed that at least half of the observed events were correctly forecasted and thus the majority of the forecasts were true. An equation for predicting the yield of tea from the climate variables is presented. Full article
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Open AccessArticle An Ecological Study of the Association between Area-Level Green Space and Adult Mortality in Hong Kong
Climate 2017, 5(3), 55; doi:10.3390/cli5030055
Received: 25 April 2017 / Revised: 7 July 2017 / Accepted: 14 July 2017 / Published: 18 July 2017
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Abstract
There is evidence that access to green spaces have positive effects on health, possibly through beneficial effects on exercise, air quality, urban heat islands, and stress. Few previous studies have examined the associations between green space and mortality, and they have given inconsistent
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There is evidence that access to green spaces have positive effects on health, possibly through beneficial effects on exercise, air quality, urban heat islands, and stress. Few previous studies have examined the associations between green space and mortality, and they have given inconsistent results. This ecological study relates green space to mortality in Hong Kong from 2006 to 2011. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), a measure of green space coverage, was measured for 199 small geographic areas in Hong Kong. Negative Binomial Regression Models were fit for mortality outcomes with NDVI, age, gender, population density, and area-level socio-economic variables as predictors, with Generalized Estimating Equations used to control for within-cluster correlation. An interquartile range (0.44 units) higher NDVI was significantly associated with lower cardiovascular (relative risk (RR) = 0.88, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.80, 0.98) and diabetes (RR = 0.72, 95% CI = 0.60, 0.92) mortality, and non-significantly associated with lower chronic respiratory mortality (RR = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.79, 1.02). Associations were stronger for males and low-income area residents. Lung cancer mortality had no significant association with green space. Better provision of urban green space, particularly in low-income areas, appears to have potential to reduce mortality in densely-populated Asian cities. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Urban Climate, Air Pollution, and Public Health)
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Open AccessFeature PaperArticle Adaptation: An Agricultural Challenge
Climate 2017, 5(3), 56; doi:10.3390/cli5030056
Received: 21 June 2017 / Revised: 19 July 2017 / Accepted: 21 July 2017 / Published: 26 July 2017
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Abstract
Agriculture is quite sensitive to climate change and to date it has been impacted in many ways. In turn, adaptation to lessen the impacts has attracted increasing attention. Here we discuss private and public roles in adaptation, as well as procedures for the
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Agriculture is quite sensitive to climate change and to date it has been impacted in many ways. In turn, adaptation to lessen the impacts has attracted increasing attention. Here we discuss private and public roles in adaptation, as well as procedures for the evaluation of adaptation projects. Additionally, we discuss adaptation realities and limits that constrain the practical ability of adaptation actions to cope with climate effects. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Strategies for Climate Mitigation and Adaptation in Agriculture)
Open AccessArticle Adaptation to Climate Change by Rural Ethnic Communities of Northern Thailand
Climate 2017, 5(3), 57; doi:10.3390/cli5030057
Received: 27 May 2017 / Revised: 17 July 2017 / Accepted: 22 July 2017 / Published: 26 July 2017
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Abstract
Northern Thailand has been experiencing the impact of climate change due to its fragile agro-ecosystem, inhabited by a resource-poor population. The study, conducted in a mountainous landscape of Doi Mae Salong area in Northern Thailand, explores the farmers’ perceptions of climate change, its
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Northern Thailand has been experiencing the impact of climate change due to its fragile agro-ecosystem, inhabited by a resource-poor population. The study, conducted in a mountainous landscape of Doi Mae Salong area in Northern Thailand, explores the farmers’ perceptions of climate change, its impact on farming, and adaptation measures undertaken by the two ethnic communities in the area for coping with climate change impacts. The data were collected through a structured questionnaire survey of ninety farm households using the recall approach for the past twenty years. The findings suggest that the farmers have perceived the change in climate pattern of the study area, and its negative impact on farming. Farm households have been trying to cope with the impacts by adapting to alternate farming options and practices using traditional techniques. The impact was perceived to be higher in the community living at higher elevation compared to those at lower elevation. Although autonomous adaptation is occurring in the area, the vulnerability of farm households to the impact of climate change still exists in terms of the lack of knowledge and financial resources. Full article
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Open AccessArticle Predicting Impact of Climate Change on Water Temperature and Dissolved Oxygen in Tropical Rivers
Climate 2017, 5(3), 58; doi:10.3390/cli5030058
Received: 6 July 2017 / Revised: 25 July 2017 / Accepted: 26 July 2017 / Published: 28 July 2017
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Abstract
Predicting the impact of climate change and human activities on river systems is imperative for effective management of aquatic ecosystems. Unique information can be derived that is critical to the survival of aquatic species under dynamic environmental conditions. Therefore, the response of a
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Predicting the impact of climate change and human activities on river systems is imperative for effective management of aquatic ecosystems. Unique information can be derived that is critical to the survival of aquatic species under dynamic environmental conditions. Therefore, the response of a tropical river system under climate and land-use changes from the aspects of water temperature and dissolved oxygen concentration were evaluated. Nine designed projected climate change scenarios and three future land-use scenarios were integrated into the Hydrological Simulation Program FORTRAN (HSPF) model to determine the impact of climate change and land-use on water temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration using basin-wide simulation of river system in Malaysia. The model performance coefficients showed a good correlation between simulated and observed streamflow, water temperature, and DO concentration in a monthly time step simulation. The Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency for streamflow was 0.88 for the calibration period and 0.82 for validation period. For water temperature and DO concentration, data from three stations were calibrated and the Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency for both water temperature and DO ranged from 0.53 to 0.70. The output of the calibrated model under climate change scenarios show that increased rainfall and air temperature do not affects DO concentration and water temperature as much as the condition of a decrease in rainfall and increase in air temperature. The regression model on changes in streamflow, DO concentration, and water temperature under the climate change scenarios illustrates that scenarios that produce high to moderate streamflow, produce small predicted change in water temperatures and DO concentrations compared with the scenarios that produced a low streamflow. It was observed that climate change slightly affects the relationship between water temperatures and DO concentrations in the tropical rivers that we include in this study. This study demonstrates the potential impact of climate and future land-use changes on tropical rivers and how they might affect the future ecological systems. Most rivers in suburban areas will be ecologically unsuitable to some aquatic species. In comparison, rivers surrounded by agricultural and forestlands are less affected by the projected climate and land-uses changes. The results from this study provide a basis in which resource management and mitigation actions can be developed. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Impacts and Resilience in the Developing World)
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Open AccessFeature PaperArticle Characterization of Urban Heat and Exacerbation: Development of a Heat Island Index for California
Climate 2017, 5(3), 59; doi:10.3390/cli5030059
Received: 6 July 2017 / Revised: 1 August 2017 / Accepted: 2 August 2017 / Published: 5 August 2017
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Abstract
To further evaluate the factors influencing public heat and air-quality health, a characterization of how urban areas affect the thermal environment, particularly in terms of the air temperature, is necessary. To assist public health agencies in ranking urban areas in terms of heat
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To further evaluate the factors influencing public heat and air-quality health, a characterization of how urban areas affect the thermal environment, particularly in terms of the air temperature, is necessary. To assist public health agencies in ranking urban areas in terms of heat stress and developing mitigation plans or allocating various resources, this study characterized urban heat in California and quantified an urban heat island index (UHII) at the census-tract level (~1 km2). Multi-scale atmospheric modeling was carried out and a practical UHII definition was developed. The UHII was diagnosed with different metrics and its spatial patterns were characterized for small, large, urban-climate archipelago, inland, and coastal areas. It was found that within each region, wide ranges of urban heat and UHII exist. At the lower end of the scale (in smaller urban areas), the UHII reaches up to 20 degree-hours per day (DH/day; °C.hr/day), whereas at the higher end (in larger areas), it reaches up to 125 DH/day or greater. The average largest temperature difference (urban heat island) within each region ranges from 0.5–1.0 °C in smaller areas to up to 5 °C or more at the higher end, such as in urban-climate archipelagos. Furthermore, urban heat is exacerbated during warmer weather and that, in turn, can worsen the health impacts of heat events presently and in the future, for which it is expected that both the frequency and duration of heat waves will increase. Full article
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Open AccessArticle Influence of Urban Green Area on Air Temperature of Surrounding Built-Up Area
Climate 2017, 5(3), 60; doi:10.3390/cli5030060
Received: 17 July 2017 / Revised: 2 August 2017 / Accepted: 2 August 2017 / Published: 7 August 2017
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Abstract
In this investigation, a numerical model expressing advection and diffusion effects is used to examine air temperature rise in urban areas that are on the leeward side of green areas. The model results are then verified by comparison with measurement results. When the
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In this investigation, a numerical model expressing advection and diffusion effects is used to examine air temperature rise in urban areas that are on the leeward side of green areas. The model results are then verified by comparison with measurement results. When the measurement point is at a distance of 30 m or more from a green area, the air temperature of the urban area is not affected by the green area. An isotropic diffusion model and a model incorporating buoyancy were applied for the vertical diffusion term. Results of air temperature rise with distance from the green area were compared for both calculated and measured values. The rise in air temperature due to the development of the urban boundary layer in the area near a green space is expressed using the sensible heat flux from the ground surface, the distance from the green area and the wind velocity. We considered an approximation of air temperature rise in order to express the following situation: when entering the urban area, air temperature rises sharply, and when reaching a certain distance from a green area, it becomes almost constant. Full article
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Open AccessFeature PaperArticle Impact of Air Temperature on London Ambulance Call-Out Incidents and Response Times
Climate 2017, 5(3), 61; doi:10.3390/cli5030061
Received: 13 June 2017 / Revised: 2 August 2017 / Accepted: 4 August 2017 / Published: 10 August 2017
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Abstract
Ambulance services are in operation around the world and yet, until recently, ambulance data has only been used for operational purposes rather than for assessing public health. Ambulance call-out data offers new and valuable (near) real-time information that can be used to assess
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Ambulance services are in operation around the world and yet, until recently, ambulance data has only been used for operational purposes rather than for assessing public health. Ambulance call-out data offers new and valuable (near) real-time information that can be used to assess the impact of environmental conditions, such as temperature, upon human health. A detailed analysis of London ambulance data at a selection of dates between 2003 and 2015 is presented and compared to London temperature data. In London, the speed of ambulance response begins to suffer when the mean daily air temperature drops below 2 °C or rises above 20 °C. This is explained largely by the increased number of calls past these threshold temperatures. The baseline relationships established in this work will inform the prediction of likely changes in ambulance demand (and illness types) that may be caused by seasonal temperature changes and the increased frequency and intensity of extreme/severe weather events, exacerbated by climate change, in the future. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Urban Climate, Air Pollution, and Public Health)
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Open AccessArticle Collaborative Health Impact Assessment and Policy Development to Improve Air Quality in West Yorkshire—A Case Study and Critical Reflection
Climate 2017, 5(3), 62; doi:10.3390/cli5030062
Received: 26 June 2017 / Revised: 1 August 2017 / Accepted: 2 August 2017 / Published: 10 August 2017
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Abstract
Air pollution is increasingly recognised as a significant problem for cities, with wide ranging impacts on health and quality of life. Combined knowledge of the legal context and health impacts led to air pollution becoming a priority in West Yorkshire. A health impact
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Air pollution is increasingly recognised as a significant problem for cities, with wide ranging impacts on health and quality of life. Combined knowledge of the legal context and health impacts led to air pollution becoming a priority in West Yorkshire. A health impact assessment methodology was used to explore the impacts of low emissions zones, demonstrating significant gains from the implementation of such a measure. This fed in to the collaborative development of the West Yorkshire Low Emissions Strategy (WYLES), resulting in policy changes and an incorporation of health and wellbeing concerns into transport and infrastructure planning, amongst other successes. This case study describes the collaborative approach taken to tackle air pollution locally and summarises key outputs and outcomes of work to date, before providing a critical reflection on what can be learnt from the West Yorkshire experience. This paper will thus interest advocates and stakeholders who are facing similar challenges. Key lessons revolve around broad stakeholder engagement and developing shared ambition. We finally discuss air pollution as a wicked problem, applying the lens of transitions management, a multidisciplinary systems change theory and discuss the local experience in relation to the literature on collaborative public management. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Urban Climate, Air Pollution, and Public Health)
Open AccessArticle Adoption and Dissemination Pathways for Climate-Smart Agriculture Technologies and Practices for Climate-Resilient Livelihoods in Lushoto, Northeast Tanzania
Climate 2017, 5(3), 63; doi:10.3390/cli5030063
Received: 19 June 2017 / Revised: 18 July 2017 / Accepted: 26 July 2017 / Published: 15 August 2017
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Abstract
Smallholder farmers in East Africa need information and knowledge on appropriate climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practices, technologies, and institutional innovations in order to effectively adapt to changing climatic conditions and cope with climate variability. This paper assesses farmer adoption of climate-smart agricultural practices and
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Smallholder farmers in East Africa need information and knowledge on appropriate climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practices, technologies, and institutional innovations in order to effectively adapt to changing climatic conditions and cope with climate variability. This paper assesses farmer adoption of climate-smart agricultural practices and innovation after being exposed to Farms of the Future Approach (FotF). First; we explore and assess the various CSA technologies and practices; including institutional innovations farmers are adopting. Second; we identify and document farmer learning and dissemination pathways that can enhance adoption of CSA technologies and practices. Third; we identify existing institutions that enhance adoption of CSA practices. We use household survey data, complemented by qualitative information from focus group discussions and key informant interviews. The results show farmers are adopting a variety of CSA technologies, practices, and institutional innovations to after participating in the FotF approach with use of improved crop varieties, agroforestry, and scientific weather forecast information cited as the main practices. To minimize their risks and reduce vulnerabilities, farmers are diversifying and integrating five to 10 CSA practices in one season. Matengo pits, SACCOs, and efficient energy stoves were adopted by very few farmers due to their high initial investment costs and unsuitability to the area. Ninety-eight percent of farmers reported that they receive agricultural information orally from a variety of sources including government extension workers, seed companies, researchers, traditional experts, neighbors, radio agricultural shows, religious groups, farmer groups, and family members. Lastly, farmers reported that the FotF approach is a useful tool that enabled them to interact with other farmers and learn new CSA practices and innovations. Suggested improvements to make on the FotF included include longer trip duration, increased number of farmer participants, and gender balance and age considerations to include youth. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Strategies for Climate Mitigation and Adaptation in Agriculture)
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Open AccessArticle Adaption to Climate Change through Fallow Rotation in the U.S. Pacific Northwest
Climate 2017, 5(3), 64; doi:10.3390/cli5030064
Received: 11 July 2017 / Revised: 7 August 2017 / Accepted: 8 August 2017 / Published: 15 August 2017
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Abstract
In this paper, we study the use of wheat land fallow production systems as a climate change adaptation strategy. Using data from the U.S. Census of Agriculture, we find that fallow is an important adaption strategy for wheat farms in the U.S. Pacific
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In this paper, we study the use of wheat land fallow production systems as a climate change adaptation strategy. Using data from the U.S. Census of Agriculture, we find that fallow is an important adaption strategy for wheat farms in the U.S. Pacific Northwest region. In particular, we find that a warmer and wetter climate increases the share of fallow in total cropland and thus reduces cropland in production. Our simulations project that, on average by 2050, the share of fallow (1.5 million acres in 2012) in the U.S. Pacific Northwest region will increase by 1.3% (0.12 million acres) under a medium climate change scenario and by 1.8% (0.16 million acres) under a high climate change scenario. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Strategies for Climate Mitigation and Adaptation in Agriculture)
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Open AccessFeature PaperArticle Assessing the Value of Systematic Cycling in a Polluted Urban Environment
Climate 2017, 5(3), 65; doi:10.3390/cli5030065
Received: 26 July 2017 / Revised: 17 August 2017 / Accepted: 18 August 2017 / Published: 24 August 2017
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Abstract
The positive health effects of systematic cycling are weighted against the negative effects due to higher pollutant inhalation in the actual case of the city of Milan in northern Italy. The paper first evaluates the actual use of bikes in the city, and
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The positive health effects of systematic cycling are weighted against the negative effects due to higher pollutant inhalation in the actual case of the city of Milan in northern Italy. The paper first evaluates the actual use of bikes in the city, and then considers why and how much such an active mobility style can be expanded. Two models are used to compare the outcome of cycling on the specific population sample with the equivalent path travelled by car. The first model computes the long term effects of the physical activity, and the second evaluates the exacerbation of some relevant diseases due to the exposure to high levels of pollutants, in the case at hand, mainly particulate matter with diameter smaller than 10 μm (PM10). According to these two models, the overall balance for public health is always in favour of systematic biking. Even the current level of biking, low in comparison to other European cities, allows a considerable economic advantage on the order of tens of millions euros per year. This may increase to hundreds of millions if the biking level of more bike-friendly cities is reached. Despite being much less relevant from the economic viewpoint, the study also estimates the reduction of pollution and greenhouse gas emissions corresponding to the assumed biking levels. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Urban Climate, Air Pollution, and Public Health)
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Open AccessFeature PaperArticle An Exposure-Mortality Relationship for Residential Indoor PM2.5 Exposure from Outdoor Sources
Climate 2017, 5(3), 66; doi:10.3390/cli5030066
Received: 29 June 2017 / Revised: 18 August 2017 / Accepted: 24 August 2017 / Published: 26 August 2017
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Abstract
A large proportion of particulate air pollution exposure in urban areas occurs due to the penetration of outdoor pollution into the residential indoor environment. Theoretical considerations suggest that quantifying health effects due to changes to indoor particulate concentrations derived from outdoor sources requires
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A large proportion of particulate air pollution exposure in urban areas occurs due to the penetration of outdoor pollution into the residential indoor environment. Theoretical considerations suggest that quantifying health effects due to changes to indoor particulate concentrations derived from outdoor sources requires the adjustment of exposure-response coefficients based on epidemiological studies of outdoor air. Using the PM2.5-mortality coefficient from the American Cancer Society (ACS) cohort study as an example, we developed a theoretical model to quantify the relationship between the published coefficient and one based on personal exposure, and explored how this adjusted coefficient might be applied to changes in indoor PM2.5 from outdoor sources. Using a probabilistic approach, our estimated average mortality coefficient for personal PM2.5 exposure is 30–50% greater than the ACS coefficient. However, since the indoor PM2.5 of outdoor origin accounts for only a proportion of the overall exposure, the average net adjustment required for indoor exposure is very modest. The results suggest that it is generally appropriate to apply unadjusted exposure-response functions derived from cohort studies to assess the health impact of changes in indoor particle concentrations from outdoor sources. However, it may be important to re-scale the coefficients for assessing exposures of population groups who spend a greater proportion of their time at home. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Urban Climate, Air Pollution, and Public Health)
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Open AccessArticle Influence of Parameter Sensitivity and Uncertainty on Projected Runoff in the Upper Niger Basin under a Changing Climate
Climate 2017, 5(3), 67; doi:10.3390/cli5030067
Received: 2 June 2017 / Revised: 21 August 2017 / Accepted: 23 August 2017 / Published: 27 August 2017
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Abstract
Hydro-climatic projections in West Africa are attributed with high uncertainties that are difficult to quantify. This study assesses the influence of the parameter sensitivities and uncertainties of three rainfall runoff models on simulated discharge in current and future times using meteorological data from
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Hydro-climatic projections in West Africa are attributed with high uncertainties that are difficult to quantify. This study assesses the influence of the parameter sensitivities and uncertainties of three rainfall runoff models on simulated discharge in current and future times using meteorological data from eight Global Climate Models (GCM). The IHACRES Catchment Moisture Deficit (IHACRES-CMD) model, the GR4J, and the Sacramento model were chosen for this study. During the model evaluation, 10,000 parameter sets were generated for each model and used in a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method. Out of the three models, IHACRES-CMD recorded the highest Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.92 and 0.86 for the calibration (1997–2003) and the validation (2004–2010) period, respectively. The Sacramento model was able to adequately predict low flow patterns on the catchment, while the GR4J and IHACRES-CMD over and under estimated low flow, respectively. The use of multiple hydrological models to reduce uncertainties caused by model approaches is recommended, along with other methods for sustainable river basin management. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Modified Hydrological Cycle under Global Warming)
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Open AccessFeature PaperArticle Rainfall Variability in January in the Federal District of Brazil from 1981 to 2010
Climate 2017, 5(3), 68; doi:10.3390/cli5030068
Received: 25 July 2017 / Revised: 18 August 2017 / Accepted: 22 August 2017 / Published: 28 August 2017
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Abstract
The Federal District is a politically and economically important part of Brazil, which suffers from water stress. Exploratory analyzes were conducted using data on rainfall in the Federal District from the monthly precipitation time series to assess the rainfall variability in January, a
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The Federal District is a politically and economically important part of Brazil, which suffers from water stress. Exploratory analyzes were conducted using data on rainfall in the Federal District from the monthly precipitation time series to assess the rainfall variability in January, a month that falls in the middle of the rainy season in the region. A time series of 30 years (1981–2010), recorded at 19 rain gauges was analyzed. The resulting exploratory analyses show a gradient of increasing rainfall in the westward direction in the Federal District. Moreover, the time series shows a moderate inter-annual variability in rainfall volume, which is, however, of a stationary nature. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Studies and Perspectives of Climatology in Brazil)
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Open AccessFeature PaperArticle Near-Term Pathways for Achieving Forest and Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Mitigation in the U.S.
Climate 2017, 5(3), 69; doi:10.3390/cli5030069
Received: 13 July 2017 / Revised: 21 August 2017 / Accepted: 25 August 2017 / Published: 1 September 2017
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Abstract
U.S. forests and agriculture present unique opportunities to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. U.S. forests currently remove a large amount of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere each year and store it as a terrestrial carbon sink, a trend that is projected to continue,
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U.S. forests and agriculture present unique opportunities to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. U.S. forests currently remove a large amount of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere each year and store it as a terrestrial carbon sink, a trend that is projected to continue, although at a decreasing rate over time. Agriculture is and will continue to be a net source of GHGs. To encourage additional mitigation, analyses suggest addressing forest loss, forest aging, wildfire, and encouraging greater forest growth. In agriculture, analyses suggest addressing animal operation methane emissions and nitrous oxide from fertilizer use. Absent new targeted policies to encourage mitigation practices such as these, existing programs may need to be better leveraged for GHG mitigation, even if that is not their explicit objective. Leveraging existing programs requires coordinated outreach efforts to ensure that practices are not cross-purposed. Development of standards and verification practices is also necessary to ensure desirable outcomes. Finally, greater mitigation may be possible by maximizing the effectiveness of voluntary efforts from private and non-governmental organizations, and not necessarily the implementation of new policies. This conclusion represents a departure from traditional commentary on the subject, but arguably represents a more realistic path forward to achieving climate mitigation objectives in the near-term. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Strategies for Climate Mitigation and Adaptation in Agriculture)
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Open AccessArticle Comparison of Carbon Emission Trading Schemes in the European Union and China
Climate 2017, 5(3), 70; doi:10.3390/cli5030070
Received: 2 August 2017 / Revised: 29 August 2017 / Accepted: 30 August 2017 / Published: 2 September 2017
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Abstract
Given the growing evidence and scientific consensus on global climate change, carbon emission trading schemes (ETS) have been deemed crucial in mitigating the problem. Therefore, this study compares the mechanisms of ETS in the European Union with those in China. The results indicate
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Given the growing evidence and scientific consensus on global climate change, carbon emission trading schemes (ETS) have been deemed crucial in mitigating the problem. Therefore, this study compares the mechanisms of ETS in the European Union with those in China. The results indicate similarities in cap determination, the coverage and calculation method of allowance allocation, trading participants and allowance category, offset credit, and MRV. On the other hand, the allocation method and supervision of allowance allocation, allowance formats and trading methods, market risk management, market linkage mechanism, and legislation security evidently appear to vary. However, the results were unable to identify which ETS is absolutely good or bad due to the political, economic, and institutional contexts and the varying developmental phases. Eventually, drawing on these findings, we conclude with implications for the promotion of ETS. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Impacts and Resilience in the Developing World)
Open AccessArticle Influence of Atmospheric Circulation on the Baltic Sea Level Rise under the RCP8.5 Scenario over the 21st Century
Climate 2017, 5(3), 71; doi:10.3390/cli5030071
Received: 1 August 2017 / Revised: 31 August 2017 / Accepted: 1 September 2017 / Published: 6 September 2017
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Abstract
This study aims to estimate the influence of atmospheric circulation modes on future Baltic Sea level rise under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) climate scenario for the period 2006–2100. For this estimation, the connection between the sea level variations in two selected
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This study aims to estimate the influence of atmospheric circulation modes on future Baltic Sea level rise under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) climate scenario for the period 2006–2100. For this estimation, the connection between the sea level variations in two selected representative locations—Stockholm and Warnemünde, and two atmospheric indices—the Baltic Sea and North Sea Oscillation (BANOS) index and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index is statistically analysed. Correlations of winter means between atmospheric indices, BANOS and NAO, and tide gauges are measured as 0.85 and 0.55 for Stockholm, and 0.55 and 0.17 for Warnemünde over the period 1900–2013. Assuming that the established connection remains unchanged, the influence of atmospheric circulation modes on future Baltic Sea level rise is estimated from the projections of atmospheric indices, which are constructed from the SLP outputs of climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) under the RCP8.5 scenario. The main conclusion is that the contribution of those atmospheric modes to the Baltic Sea level rise is likely to remain small over the 21st century. Additionally, corresponding trend estimations of model realizations indicate the large influence of the internal climatic variability of the CMIP5 models on those future trends. One of the most important findings of this study is that anthropogenic forcing does not play a key role in the evolution of these atmospheric indices. Full article
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Open AccessArticle A Study of the Oklahoma City Urban Heat Island Effect Using a WRF/Single-Layer Urban Canopy Model, a Joint Urban 2003 Field Campaign, and MODIS Satellite Observations
Climate 2017, 5(3), 72; doi:10.3390/cli5030072
Received: 23 June 2017 / Revised: 25 August 2017 / Accepted: 27 August 2017 / Published: 7 September 2017
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Abstract
The urban heat island effect (UHI) for inner land regions was investigated using satellite data, ground observations, and simulations with an Single-Layer Urban Canopy Parameterization (SLUCP) coupled into the regional Weather Research Forecasting model (WRF, http://wrf-model.org/index.php). Specifically, using the satellite-observed surface skin
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The urban heat island effect (UHI) for inner land regions was investigated using satellite data, ground observations, and simulations with an Single-Layer Urban Canopy Parameterization (SLUCP) coupled into the regional Weather Research Forecasting model (WRF, http://wrf-model.org/index.php). Specifically, using the satellite-observed surface skin temperatures (Tskin), the intensity of the UHI was first compared for two inland cities (Xi’an City, China, and Oklahoma City (OKC)), which have different city populations and building densities. The larger population density and larger building density in Xi’an lead to a stronger skin-level UHI by 2 °C. However, the ground observed 2 m surface air temperature (Tair) observations showed an urban cooling island effect (UCI) over the downtown region in OKC during the daytime of 19 July 2003, from a DOE field campaign (Joint Urban 2003). To understand this contrast between satellite-based Tskin and ground-based Tair, a sensitivity study using WRF/SLUCP was analyzed. The model reproduced a UCI in OKC. Furthermore, WRF/Noah/SLUCM simulations were also compared with the Joint Urban 2003 ground observations, including wind speeds, wind directions, and energy fluxes. Although the WRF/SLUCM model failed to simulate these variables accurately, it reproduced the diurnal variations of surface temperatures, wind speeds, wind directions, and energy fluxes reasonably well. Full article
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Open AccessArticle Germination Phenological Response Identifies Flora Risk to Climate Change
Climate 2017, 5(3), 73; doi:10.3390/cli5030073
Received: 25 August 2017 / Revised: 12 September 2017 / Accepted: 14 September 2017 / Published: 18 September 2017
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Abstract
Climate change is prevalent across the world and can have large influence on plant regeneration, recruitment, survival and diversity. Regeneration and recruitment are the key phases in the plant life cycle and these two aspects are related to survival, adaptation and distribution of
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Climate change is prevalent across the world and can have large influence on plant regeneration, recruitment, survival and diversity. Regeneration and recruitment are the key phases in the plant life cycle and these two aspects are related to survival, adaptation and distribution of species. This study thus aims to explore the effect of projected climate change on germination and establishment response of some timber tree species from the tropical/subtropical broad leaf forests of Nepal. Germination experiments were carried out under three different temperature regimes (20, 25 and 30 °C) and germination parameters identified from the experimental component were calibrated in the mechanistic model Tree and Climate Assessment—Germination and Establishment Module (TACA-GEM) that helped in identifying species vulnerability to climate change. The model outcome under varied climatic conditions helped in determining the species risk to projected climatic conditions. The model demonstrates that the studied species were able to increase germination under the projected climate change however, establishment consistently failed for most of the species across the hot tropical sites. This finding indicates that spatial vulnerability may limit recruitment in the future. The species-specific responses suggest that, in general, all three species (Alnus nepalensis, Adina cordifolia, and Bombax ceiba) exhibited enhanced germination and establishment in moderately warm and colder sites, indicating that these species may more likely shift their range towards the north in future. Thus, the general species response exhibited in this study may aid in regional climate change adaptation planning in the sector of forest conservation and management. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Impacts and Resilience in the Developing World)
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Open AccessArticle Decreasing Past and Mid-Century Rainfall Indices over the Ouémé River Basin, Benin (West Africa)
Climate 2017, 5(3), 74; doi:10.3390/cli5030074
Received: 26 July 2017 / Revised: 13 September 2017 / Accepted: 15 September 2017 / Published: 19 September 2017
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Abstract
This study analyzed the trends of extreme daily rainfall indices over the Ouémé basin using the observed data from 1950 to 2014 and the projected rainfall of regional climate model REMO (REgional MOdel) for the period 2015–2050. For future trends analysis, two Intergovernmental
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This study analyzed the trends of extreme daily rainfall indices over the Ouémé basin using the observed data from 1950 to 2014 and the projected rainfall of regional climate model REMO (REgional MOdel) for the period 2015–2050. For future trends analysis, two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) new scenarios are considered, namely RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The indices considered are number of heavy rainfall days, number of very heavy rainfall days, consecutive dry days, consecutive wet days, daily maximum rainfall, five-day maximum rainfall, annual wet-day total rainfall, simple daily intensity index, very wet days, and extremely wet days. These indices were calculated at annual and seasonal scales. The Mann-Kendall non-parametric test and the parametric linear regression approach were used for trends detection. As result, significant declining in the number of heavy and very heavy rainfall days, heavy and extremely heavy rainfall, consecutive wet days and annual wet-day rainfall total were detected in most stations for the historical period as well as the future period following the scenario RCP8.5. Furthermore, few stations presented significant trends for the scenario RCP4.5 and the high proportion of stations with the inconsistence trends invites the planners to get ready for an uncertain future climate following this scenario. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Impacts and Resilience in the Developing World)
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Open AccessArticle Mapping the Potential Global Range of the Brown Marmorated Stink Bug, Halyomorpha halys, with Particular Reference to New Zealand
Climate 2017, 5(3), 75; doi:10.3390/cli5030075
Received: 13 July 2017 / Revised: 25 August 2017 / Accepted: 13 September 2017 / Published: 20 September 2017
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Abstract
Originating from Asia, the brown marmorated stink bug (BMSB) is a significant pest of horticultural/agricultural crops, grapes, woody ornamental and herbaceous plants, and is also a nuisance to people, due to its overwintering behavior in human habitation. The global range of this pest
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Originating from Asia, the brown marmorated stink bug (BMSB) is a significant pest of horticultural/agricultural crops, grapes, woody ornamental and herbaceous plants, and is also a nuisance to people, due to its overwintering behavior in human habitation. The global range of this pest is steadily increasing and previous predictions of environmental suitability have shown New Zealand to be highly suitable. Due to the economic value of horticultural and agricultural industries to the New Zealand economy, it is vital to understand the range of potential risk within the country. Global and New Zealand potential suitability for BMSB was modeled using three algorithms and the resulting predictions ensembled to predict the potential range under current climatic conditions and under trajectories of future low (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP, 2.6) and high (RCP 8.5) greenhouse gas emissions for both 2050 and 2070. Under current conditions, models showed a high global suitability within latitudes 25°–50° N, southern South America, southeast and southwest regions of Australia and large areas of New Zealand. Modeling the effect of climate change on BMSB range in New Zealand resulted in a southerly range shift over time, particularly with high emissions trajectory. Currently, BMSB is not established in New Zealand and it is vital that this remains the case. Full article
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