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A special issue of Climate (ISSN 2225-1154).

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (30 September 2016) | Viewed by 108081

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Dr. Daniele Bocchiola

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Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Polytechnic of Milan, Leonardo da Vinci, 32, 20133 Milan, Italy
Interests: water resources; hydrology; climate change; avalanche risk
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Prof. Dr. Claudio Cassardo

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Department of General Physics “Amedeo Avogadro”, Faculty of Sciences, University of Torino, Via Pietro Giuria 1, 10125 Torino, Italy
Interests: meteorology; climate physics; numerical modelling; meteorological models; land surface models; crop modelling; hydrometeorology; agrometeorology; agroclimatology
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Prof. Dr. Guglielmina Diolaiuti

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University Milano, Dept. Environmental Sciences and Policies, Celoria 2, 20133 Milano, Italy
Interests: glaciers morphology and dynamics; climate change; remote sensing of the cryosphere
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Transient and future climate change is affecting the water cycle worldwide, enhancing precipitation variability, changing evapotranspiration and soil moisture patterns, thus affecting water resources, and increasing both floods and droughts extent. The water cycle in mountain is affected by earlier snowmelt, and magnified glaciers’ down-wasting. In arid and semi-arid areas, present and future modified precipitation patterns may further reduce water availability. Agricultural water demands may increase under climate change, in the face of reduced hydrological water supply.

The modified water cycle under climate change will, therefore, have an effect upon water and food security, energy production, and ecosystem services.

The Special Issue will welcome contributions broadly tackling the theme of water resource availability, and seasonality under climate change, in as wide as possible an array of climatic and hydrological conditions, including, but not limited to:

1)      Hydrological modeling under changing climate;
2)      Hydrological projections, sensitivity analysis, and adaptation measures;
3)      Impact of climate change on mountain hydrology;
4)      Effect of a changed and changing cryosphere (i.e.: snow, glacier ice and permafrost) on mountain water availability;
5) Water resources in arid environment;
6)      Enhanced flood magnitude under climate change
7)      Enhanced drought magnitude under climate change
8)      Modified agricultural water use and availability under climate change
9)      Effects of changing water cycle upon riverine environment
10) Climate change, water resources and hydropower production

Dr. Daniele Bocchiola
Prof. Dr. Claudio Cassardo
Prof. Dr. Guglielmina Diolaiuti
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Climate is an international peer-reviewed open access monthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 1800 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

climate change
precipitation changes
evapotranspiration
hydrological changes
water resources availability
mountain hydrology and cryosphere
floods and droughts
Alps, Andes, Himalayas, Karakoram
riverine ecosystems

Published Papers (11 papers)

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Research

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2083 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Precipitation Intensity Trend Detection using Hourly and Daily Observations in Portland, Oregon

by Alexis Cooley and Heejun Chang

Climate 2017, 5(1), 10; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli5010010 - 18 Feb 2017

Cited by 22 | Viewed by 6438

Abstract

The intensity of precipitation is expected to increase in response to climate change, but the regions where this may occur are unclear. The lack of certainty from climate models warrants an examination of trends in observational records. However, the temporal resolution of records may affect the success of trend detection. Daily observations are often used, but may be too coarse to detect changes. Sub-daily records may improve detection, but their value is not yet quantified. Using daily and hourly records from 24 rain gages in Portland, Oregon (OR), trends in precipitation intensity and volume are examined for the period of 1999–2015. Daily intensity is measured using the Simple Daily Intensity Index, and this method is adapted to measure hourly scale intensity. Kendall’s tau, a non-parametric correlation coefficient, is used for monotonic trend detection. Field significance and tests for spatial autocorrelation using Moran’s Index are used to determine the significance of group hypothesis tests. Results indicate that the hourly data is superior in trend detection when compared with daily data; more trends are detected with hourly scale data at both the 5% and 10% significance levels. Hourly records showed a significant increase in 6 of 12 months, while daily records showed a significant increase in 4 of 12 months at the 10% significance level. At both scales increasing trends were concentrated in spring and summer months, while no winter trends were detected. Volume was shown to be increasing in most months experiencing increased intensity, and is a probable driver of the intensity trends observed. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources)

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2086 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Watershed Response to Climate Change and Fire-Burns in the Upper Umatilla River Basin, USA

by Kimberly Yazzie and Heejun Chang

Climate 2017, 5(1), 7; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli5010007 - 16 Feb 2017

Cited by 6 | Viewed by 5830

Abstract

This study analyzed watershed response to climate change and forest fire impacts in the upper Umatilla River Basin (URB), Oregon, using the precipitation runoff modeling system. Ten global climate models using Coupled Intercomparison Project Phase 5 experiments with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 were used to simulate the effects of climate and fire-burns on runoff behavior throughout the 21st century. We observed the center timing (CT) of flow, seasonal flows, snow water equivalent (SWE) and basin recharge. In the upper URB, hydrologic regime shifts from a snow-rain-dominated to rain-dominated basin. Ensemble mean CT occurs 27 days earlier in RCP 4.5 and 33 days earlier in RCP 8.5, in comparison to historic conditions (1980s) by the end of the 21st century. After forest cover reduction in the 2080s, CT occurs 35 days earlier in RCP 4.5 and 29 days earlier in RCP 8.5. The difference in mean CT after fire-burns may be due to projected changes in the individual climate model. Winter flow is projected to decline after forest cover reduction in the 2080s by 85% and 72% in RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, in comparison to 98% change in ensemble mean winter flows in the 2080s before forest cover reduction. The ratio of ensemble mean snow water equivalent to precipitation substantially decreases by 81% and 91% in the 2050s and 2080s before forest cover reduction and a decrease of 90% in RCP 4.5 and 99% in RCP 8.5 in the 2080s after fire-burns. Mean basin recharge is 10% and 14% lower in the 2080s before fire-burns and after fire-burns, and it decreases by 13% in RCP 4.5 and decreases 22% in RCP 8.5 in the 2080s in comparison to historical conditions. Mixed results for recharge after forest cover reduction suggest that an increase may be due to the size of burned areas, decreased canopy interception and less evaporation occurring at the watershed surface, increasing the potential for infiltration. The effects of fire on the watershed system are strongly indicated by a significant increase in winter seasonal flows and a slight reduction in summer flows. Findings from this study may improve adaptive management of water resources, flood control and the effects of fire on a watershed system. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources)

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2333 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Predictability of Seasonal Streamflow in a Changing Climate in the Sierra Nevada

by Minxue He, Mitchel Russo and Michael Anderson

Climate 2016, 4(4), 57; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli4040057 - 25 Nov 2016

Cited by 11 | Viewed by 6433

Abstract

The goal of this work is to assess climate change and its impact on the predictability of seasonal (i.e., April–July) streamflow in major water supply watersheds in the Sierra Nevada. The specific objective is threefold: (1) to examine the hydroclimatic impact of climate change on precipitation and temperature at the watershed scale, as well as the variability and trends in the predictand (i.e., April–July streamflow runoff) and its operational predictors (including 1 April snow water equivalent, October–March precipitation and runoff, and April–June precipitation) in a changing climate; (2) to detect potential changes in the predictability of April–July streamflow runoff in response to climate change; and (3) to assess the relationship between April–July streamflow runoff and potential new predictors and the corresponding trend. Historical records (water year 1930–2015) of annual peak snow water equivalent, monthly full natural flow, monthly temperature and precipitation data from 12 major watersheds in the west side of the Sierra Nevada in California (which are of great water supply interest) are analyzed. The Mann-Kendall Trend-Free Pre-Whitening procedure is applied in trend analysis. The results indicate that no significant changes in both the predictand and predictors are detected. However, their variabilities tend to be increasing in general. Additionally, the predictability of the April–July runoff contributed from each predictor is generally increasing. The study further shows that standardized precipitation, runoff, and snow indices have higher predictability than their raw data counterparts. These findings are meaningful from both theoretical and practical perspectives, in terms of guiding the development of new forecasting models and enhancing the current operational forecasting model, respectively, for improved seasonal streamflow forecasting. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources)

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1556 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrological Processes of a Small Agricultural Watershed

by Sushant Mehan, Narayanan Kannan, Ram P. Neupane, Rachel McDaniel and Sandeep Kumar

Climate 2016, 4(4), 56; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli4040056 - 17 Nov 2016

Cited by 29 | Viewed by 7197

Abstract

Weather extremes and climate variability directly impact the hydrological cycle influencing agricultural productivity. The issues related to climate change are of prime concern for every nation as its implications are posing negative impacts on society. In this study, we used three climate change scenarios to simulate the impact on local hydrology of a small agricultural watershed. The three emission scenarios from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios, of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 analyzed in this study were A2 (high emission), A1B (medium emission), and B1 (low emission). A process based hydrologic model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was calibrated and validated for the Skunk Creek Watershed located in eastern South Dakota. The model performance coefficients revealed a strong correlation between simulated and observed stream flow at both monthly and daily time step. The Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency for monthly model performace was 0.87 for the calibration period and 0.76 for validation period. The future climate scenarios were built for the mid-21st century time period ranging from 2046 to 2065. The future climate data analysis showed an increase in temperatures between 2.2 °C to 3.3 °C and a decrease in precipitation from 1.8% to 4.5% expected under three different climate change scenarios. A sharp decline in stream flow (95.92%–96.32%), run-off (83.46%–87.00%), total water yield (90.67%–91.60%), soil water storage (89.99%–92.47%), and seasonal snow melt (37.64%–43.06%) are predicted to occur by the mid-21st century. In addition, an increase in evapotranspirative losses (2%–3%) is expected to occur within the watershed when compared with the baseline period. Overall, these results indicate that the watershed is highly susceptible to hydrological and agricultural drought due to limited water availability. These results are limited to the available climate projections, and future refinement in projected climatic change data, at a finer regional scale would provide greater clarity. Nevertheless, models like SWAT are excellent means to test best management practices to mitigate the projected dry conditions in small agricultural waterhseds. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources)

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5397 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Multiyear Rainfall and Temperature Trends in the Volta River Basin and their Potential Impact on Hydropower Generation in Ghana

by Amos T. Kabo-Bah, Chuks. J. Diji, Kaku Nokoe, Yacob Mulugetta, Daniel Obeng-Ofori and Komlavi Akpoti

Climate 2016, 4(4), 49; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli4040049 - 12 Oct 2016

Cited by 63 | Viewed by 14922

Abstract

The effects of temperature and rainfall changes on hydropower generation in Ghana from 1960–2011 were examined to understand country-wide trends of climate variability. Moreover, the discharge and the water level trends for the Akosombo reservoir from 1965–2014 were examined using the Mann-Kendall test statistic to assess localised changes. The annual temperature trend was positive while rainfall showed both negative and positive trends in different parts of the country. However, these trends were not statistically significant in the study regions in 1960 to 2011. Rainfall was not evenly distributed throughout the years, with the highest rainfall recorded between 1960 and 1970 and the lowest rainfalls between 2000 and 2011. The Mann-Kendall test shows an upward trend for the discharge of the Akosombo reservoir and a downward trend for the water level. However, the discharge irregularities of the reservoir do not necessarily affect the energy generated from the Akosombo plant, but rather the regular low flow of water into the reservoir affected power generation. This is the major concern for the operations of the Akosombo hydropower plant for energy generation in Ghana. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources)

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9728 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceArticle

Future Water Availability from Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya upper Indus Basin under Conflicting Climate Change Scenarios

by Shabeh ul Hasson

Climate 2016, 4(3), 40; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli4030040 - 26 Aug 2016

Cited by 45 | Viewed by 10264

Abstract

Future of the crucial Himalayan water supplies has generally been assessed under the anthropogenic warming, typically consistent amid observations and climate model projections. However, conflicting mid-to-late melt-season cooling within the upper Indus basin (UIB) suggests that the future of its melt-dominated hydrological regime and the subsequent water availability under changing climate has yet been understood only indistinctly. Here, the future water availability from the UIB is presented under both observed and projected—though likely but contrasting—climate change scenarios. Continuation of prevailing climatic changes suggests decreased and delayed glacier melt but increased and early snowmelt, leading to reduction in the overall water availability and profound changes in the overall seasonality of the hydrological regime. Hence, initial increases in the water availability due to enhanced glacier melt under typically projected warmer climates, and then abrupt decrease upon vanishing of the glaciers, as reported earlier, is only true given the UIB starts following uniformly the global warming signal. Such discordant future water availability findings caution the impact assessment communities to consider the relevance of likely (near-future) climate change scenarios—consistent to prevalent climatic change patterns—in order to adequately support the water resource planning in Pakistan. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources)

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3853 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Quantifying Uncertainties in Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Hydropower Production

by Ganiyu Titilope Oyerinde, Dominik Wisser, Fabien C.C. Hountondji, Ayo J. Odofin, Agnide E. Lawin, Abel Afouda and Bernd Diekkrüger

Climate 2016, 4(3), 34; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli4030034 - 24 Jun 2016

Cited by 33 | Viewed by 7735

Abstract

Climate change will have large impacts on water resources and its predictions are fraught with uncertainties in West Africa. With the current global drive for renewable energy due to climate change, there is a need for understanding the effects of hydro-climatic changes on water resources and hydropower generation. A hydrological model was used to model runoff inflow into the largest hydroelectric dam (Kainji) in the Niger Basin (West Africa) under present and future conditions. Inflow to the reservoir was simulated using hydro-climatic data from a set of dynamically downscaled 8 global climate models (GCM) with two emission scenarios from the CORDEX-Africa regional downscaling experiment, driven with CMIP5 data. Observed records of the Kainji Lake were used to develop a hydroelectricity production model to simulate future energy production for the reservoir. Results indicate an increase in inflow into the reservoir and concurrent increases in hydropower production for the majority of the GCM data under the two scenarios. This analysis helps planning hydropower schemes for sustainable hydropower production. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources)

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5875 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Hydro-Climatic Variability in the Karnali River Basin of Nepal Himalaya

by Kabi Raj Khatiwada, Jeeban Panthi, Madan Lall Shrestha and Santosh Nepal

Climate 2016, 4(2), 17; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli4020017 - 23 Mar 2016

Cited by 75 | Viewed by 16462 | Correction

Abstract

Global climate change has local implications. Focusing on datasets from the topographically-challenging Karnali river basin in Western Nepal, this research provides an overview of hydro-climatic parameters that have been observed during 1981–2012. The spatial and temporal variability of temperature and precipitation were analyzed in the basin considering the seven available climate stations and 20 precipitation stations distributed in the basin. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s method were used to study the trends in climate data. Results show that the average precipitation in the basin is heterogeneous, and more of the stations trend are decreasing. The precipitation shows decreasing trend by 4.91 mm/year, i.e., around 10% on average. Though the increasing trends were observed in both minimum and maximum temperature, maximum temperature trend is higher than the minimum temperature and the maximum temperature trend during the pre-monsoon season is significantly higher (0.08 °C/year). River discharge and precipitation observations were analyzed to understand the rainfall-runoff relationship. The peak discharge (August) is found to be a month late than the peak precipitation (July) over the basin. Although the annual precipitation in most of the stations shows a decreasing trend, there is constant river discharge during the period 1981–2010. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources)

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3986 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Assessing Climate Impacts on Hydropower Production: The Case of the Toce River Basin

by Giovanni Ravazzani, Francesco Dalla Valle, Ludovic Gaudard, Thomas Mendlik, Andreas Gobiet and Marco Mancini

Climate 2016, 4(2), 16; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli4020016 - 23 Mar 2016

Cited by 28 | Viewed by 5702

Abstract

The aim of the presented study is to assess the impacts of climate change on hydropower production of the Toce Alpine river basin in Italy. For the meteorological forcing of future scenarios, time series were generated by applying a quantile-based error-correction approach to downscale simulations from two regional climate models to point scale. Beside a general temperature increase, climate models simulate an increase of mean annual precipitation distributed over spring, autumn and winter, and a significant decrease in summer. A model of the hydropower system was driven by discharge time series for future scenarios, simulated with a spatially distributed hydrological model, with the simulation goal of defining the reservoirs management rule that maximizes the economic value of the hydropower production. The assessment of hydropower production for future climate till 2050 respect to current climate (2001–2010) showed an increase of production in autumn, winter and spring, and a reduction in June and July. Significant change in the reservoir management policy is expected due to anticipation of the date when the maximum volume of stored water has to be reached and an increase of the reservoir drawdown during August and September to prepare storage capacity for autumn inflows. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources)

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943 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Long-Term Trend Analysis of Precipitation and Air Temperature for Kentucky, United States

by Somsubhra Chattopadhyay and Dwayne R. Edwards

Climate 2016, 4(1), 10; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli4010010 - 03 Feb 2016

Cited by 76 | Viewed by 11861

Abstract

Variation in quantities such as precipitation and temperature is often assessed by detecting and characterizing trends in available meteorological data. The objective of this study was to determine the long-term trends in annual precipitation and mean annual air temperature for the state of Kentucky. Non-parametric statistical tests were applied to homogenized and (as needed) pre-whitened annual series of precipitation and mean air temperature during 1950–2010. Significant trends in annual precipitation were detected (both positive, averaging 4.1 mm/year) for only two of the 60 precipitation-homogenous weather stations (Calloway and Carlisle counties in rural western Kentucky). Only three of the 42 temperature-homogenous stations demonstrated trends (all positive, averaging 0.01 °C/year) in mean annual temperature: Calloway County, Allen County in southern-central Kentucky, and urbanized Jefferson County in northern-central Kentucky. In view of the locations of the stations demonstrating positive trends, similar work in adjacent states will be required to better understand the processes responsible for those trends and to properly place them in their larger context, if any. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources)

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Review

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Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceReview

Hydrological Climate Change Impact Assessment at Small and Large Scales: Key Messages from Recent Progress in Sweden

by Jonas Olsson, Berit Arheimer, Matthias Borris, Chantal Donnelly, Kean Foster, Grigory Nikulin, Magnus Persson, Anna-Maria Perttu, Cintia B. Uvo, Maria Viklander and Wei Yang

Climate 2016, 4(3), 39; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli4030039 - 24 Aug 2016

Cited by 47 | Viewed by 13797

Abstract

Hydrological climate change impact assessment is generally performed by following a sequence of steps from global and regional climate modelling, through data tailoring (bias-adjustment and downscaling) and hydrological modelling, to analysis and impact assessment. This “climate-hydrology-assessment chain” has been developed with a primary focus on applicability to a medium-sized rural basin, which has been and still is the main type of domain investigated in this context. However, impact assessment is to an increasing degree being performed at scales smaller or larger than the medium-sized rural basin. Small-scale assessment includes e.g., impacts on solute transport and urban hydrology and large-scale assessment includes e.g., climate teleconnections and continental modelling. In both cases, additional complexity is introduced in the process and additional demands are placed on all components involved, i.e., climate and hydrology models, tailoring methods, assessment principles, and tools. In this paper we provide an overview of recent progress with respect to small- and large-scale hydrological climate change impact assessment. In addition, we wish to highlight some key issues that emerged as a consequence of the scale and that need further attention from now on. While we mainly use examples from work performed in Europe for illustration, the progress generally reflects the overall state of the art and the issues considered are of a generic character. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources)

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