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Decadal Variability and Predictability of Climate

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A special issue of Climate (ISSN 2225-1154).

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (31 March 2018) | Viewed by 63008

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Dr. Jing-Jia Luo

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Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR), Level 9, 700 Collins Street, Docklands, Melbourne, VIC 3008, Australia
Interests: climate science (air-sea interactions; ocean dynamics); climate modelling; climate prediction and climate service

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Decadal (longer than seven years) variability and predictability of climate has been highlighted as a priority area for research over past decades. Special attentions have been paid to the mechanisms of: 1) decadal variability in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans; 2) the importance of ocean processes, ocean-atmosphere interactions, tropical-extratropical interactions, and inter-basin interactions in decadal variability; 3) ENSO-decadal variability interactions; 4) the importance of decadal variability in modulating global climate change; 5) external forcing of decadal variability; 6) decadal variation of ENSO and its predictability; and 7) decadal variability of mode waters, extremes, sea level rise, tropical cyclones, ice extent, glacier, soil moisture, radiative forcing, and so on. In addition, the socio-economic and environmental impacts of decadal variability and the prediction of decadal variability and climate change have also attracted many attentions. In this special issue, we aim to bring together theoretical, observational, and modelling studies and to review and advance our understanding and prediction of both internally-induced and externally-forced decadal variability with a special emphasis on, but not limited to, the interactions between different ocean basins and between ocean, atmosphere, ice, and land.

Dr. Jing-Jia Luo
Guest Editor

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Keywords

decadal variability
climate change
inter-basin interactions
ocean-atmosphere interactions
decadal predictability and prediction
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Atlantic multi-decadal variability
ENSO and decadal variability
decadal change of global warming rate

Published Papers (13 papers)

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Research

14 pages, 1220 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Patterns in Indices of Daily and Seasonal Rainfall Extremes: Southwest Florida Gulf Coastal Zone

by Margaret W. Gitau

Climate 2018, 6(4), 83; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6040083 - 25 Oct 2018

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 2746

Abstract

Extreme events have the most adverse impacts on society and infrastructure, and present the greatest challenges with respect to impacts. Information on the status and trends of these events is, thus, important for system design, management, and policy decision-making. In this study, variations in daily and seasonal rainfall extremes were explored with a focus on the southwest Florida Gulf coastal zone for the period 1950–2016. Rainfall occurring on very wet days accounted for about 50% of the seasonal rainfall in the area (regardless of the season), while about 25% of the seasonal rainfall came from extremely wet days except in the period between October and December for which this latter value was about 40%. No significant changes were seen in the maximum one-day rainfall at any of the stations regardless of the time scale. However, there was a significant increase in the number of wet days in the rainy season at Myakka River (p = 0.0062) and Naples (p = 0.0027) and during October–December at Myakka River (p = 0.0204). These two stations also experienced significant increases in the number of wet days in a year. Significant increases in the contribution to rainy season rainfall from very wet days (rainfall > 25.4 mm, 1 in) were seen at Arcadia (p = 0.0055). Regional results point to an increasingly wetter climate with increasing contributions from extreme events in some areas, both of which have implications for design and management decision making. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Decadal Variability and Predictability of Climate)

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23 pages, 7348 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Changes in the Intensity and Variability of Precipitation in the Central Region of Argentina between 1960 and 2012

by Antonio C. De la Casa, Gustavo G. Ovando and Olga B. Nasello

Climate 2018, 6(3), 66; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6030066 - 25 Jul 2018

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 3722

Abstract

This study analyzes the temporal variation of different rainfall features in the central region of Argentina between 1960 and 2012, and evaluates the dynamics of temporal trends by using the Mann–Kendall–Sneyers (MKS) and Tomé–Miranda (TM) procedures. Under different criteria and levels of significance, rainfall time series show homogeneous behavior in more than 80% of cases. Only 18 of the 42 annual cases analyzed reached a significant long-term trend (p < 0.10). Total annual rainfall (AR) showed a significant increase only in Laboulaye Aero (LB) and Villa Dolores Aero (VD), but this does not currently persist. A decrease in the annual frequency of rainy days (DPF) is more widespread in the region. Thus, the increase in mean annual rainfall intensity (INT) seems to be particularly associated with the decrease in annual frequency of events (DPF) in the central region of Argentina. However, the increase in INT currently persists only at the Córdoba Observatorio (BO), as INT stopped growing for LB, Río Cuarto Aero (RC), and VD in the mid-1990s. The variation coefficients of total annual rainfall (ARCV) and DPF (DPFCV) have increased in the region, but with the former restricted locally to the Pilar Observatorio (PI), RC, and VM, and the latter to BO and RC. Long-term changes of the pluvial regime in the central region of Argentina appear to be not only local and restricted to some properties of rainfall during the period, but also reveal a particular dynamic where the long-term trends of the evaluated properties have now changed sign or maintain a certain constancy at present. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Decadal Variability and Predictability of Climate)

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18 pages, 4626 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperArticle

Ocean Impacts on Australian Interannual to Decadal Precipitation Variability

by Zachary F. Johnson, Yoshimitsu Chikamoto, Jing-Jia Luo and Takashi Mochizuki

Climate 2018, 6(3), 61; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6030061 - 11 Jul 2018

Cited by 14 | Viewed by 5130

Abstract

In Australia, successful seasonal predictions of wet and dry conditions are achieved by utilizing the remote impact of sea surface temperature (SST) variability in tropical oceans, particularly the Pacific Ocean, on the seasonal timescale. Beyond seasonal timescales, however, it is still unclear which processes and oceans contribute to interannual-to-decadal wet/dry conditions in Australia. This research examines the interannual-to-decadal relationship between global SST anomalies (SSTAs) and Australian wet/dry variability by analyzing observational data and global climate model experiments conducted with the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC). A 10-member ensemble simulation suite for 1960–2015 (CESM) and 1950–2010 (MIROC) is conducted by assimilating the observed three-dimensional ocean temperature and salinity anomalies into fully coupled global climate models. In both observational analyses and ocean assimilation experiments, the most dominant annual mean precipitation variability shows a clear relationship with SSTAs in the tropical Pacific and the Atlantic. Our partial ocean assimilation experiment, in which the ocean component of the CESM and MIROC are assimilated by the observed ocean temperature and salinity anomalies in the equatorial Pacific only, shows that the tropical Pacific SST variability is the main driver of Australian precipitation variability on the interannual-to-decadal timescales. However, our additional partial ocean assimilation experiment, in which the climate models incorporate the observed anomalies solely in the Atlantic ocean, demonstrates that the Atlantic Ocean can also affect Australian precipitation variability on the interannual-to-decadal timescale through changes in tropical Pacific SSTAs and the modulation of the global Walker circulation. Our results suggest that about a half of Australian interannual-to-decadal precipitation variability originates from the Atlantic Ocean. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Decadal Variability and Predictability of Climate)

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36 pages, 5089 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperArticle

Multi-Decadal Trend and Decadal Variability of the Regional Sea Level over the Indian Ocean since the 1960s: Roles of Climate Modes and External Forcing

by Weiqing Han, Detlef Stammer, Gerald A. Meehl, Aixue Hu, Frank Sienz and Lei Zhang

Climate 2018, 6(2), 51; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6020051 - 08 Jun 2018

Cited by 32 | Viewed by 9400

Abstract

Previous studies suggest that anthropogenic warming has affected the multi-decadal trend patterns of sea level over the Indian Ocean (IO). This effect, however, has not been quantified. Using observational datasets combined with large ensemble experiments from two climate models, this paper assesses the effects of natural internal variability versus external forcing on the observed, multi-decadal trend pattern and the decadal sea level anomaly (SLA) of the IO since the 1960s. Because the global mean sea level rise (SLR), which results largely from external forcing, has been removed before the examination, the paper focuses on the regionally uneven distribution of trend and SLA. The impacts of climate modes are quantified using a Bayesian Dynamic Linear Model. For the regional trend pattern of 1958–2005, the effects of internal variability dominate external forcing. Over the Seychelles area where sea-level variations obtain the maximum, internal variability (external forcing) contributes 81% (19 ± 2.4%) of the observed trend. For decadal SLA, internal variability is the predominant cause, with a standard deviation (STD) ratio of externally forced/observed SLA being 18 ± 17% over Seychelles and 17 ± 11% near the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) area. Climate modes account for most observed SLA during boreal winter, with the total effects of decadal ENSO, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and monsoon accounting for 78–86% of the observed STD near the Seychelles region, ITF area, and coasts of Sumatra and the Bay of Bengal. During summer, climate modes explain 95% of observed STD near the ITF but only 58–67% in other regions. Decadal ENSO dominates the SLA in the south tropical IO for both seasons and near the coasts of Sumatra and the Bay during winter. Decadal IOD and monsoon, however, control the coastal SLA during summer. Remote and local winds over the IO are the main drivers for decadal SLA, while the Pacific influence via the ITF is strong mainly in the southeast basin. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Decadal Variability and Predictability of Climate)

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14 pages, 6406 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Influence of Decadal Climate Variability on Growing Degree Day, Precipitation, and Drought in Crop-Growing Seasons

by Theepakorn Jithitikulchai

Climate 2018, 6(2), 43; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6020043 - 18 May 2018

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 4499

Abstract

Knowledge on the impact of climate variability on the decadal timescale is important for policy makers and planners in order for them to make decisions in a range of sectors, including agriculture, water resources, energy, and infrastructure. This study estimates the effects of the ocean-related decadal climate variability (DCV) on growing degree day, precipitation, and drought in the crop-growing seasons of major crops in the United States. The empirical results illustrate that DCV phase combinations are associated with variations in growing degree day, precipitation, and drought across the country using county-level data from 1950 to 2015. There are spatially-differentiated effects on the climate of major production areas of corn, soybeans, and wheat. The annual oscillations in growing degree day, precipitation, and drought reach extreme severity in some DCV scenarios. The results would facilitate the adoption of coping mechanisms with the potential to develop climate risk resiliency for agricultural planning and policy. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Decadal Variability and Predictability of Climate)

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9 pages, 3340 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Feasibility of Predicting Vietnam’s Autumn Rainfall Regime Based on the Tree-Ring Record and Decadal Variability

by Yan Sun, S. -Y. Simon Wang, Rong Li, Brendan M. Buckley, Robert Gillies and Kyle G. Hansen

Climate 2018, 6(2), 42; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6020042 - 16 May 2018

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 3462

Abstract

We investigate the feasibility of developing decadal prediction models for autumn rainfall (

R_{A}

We investigate the feasibility of developing decadal prediction models for autumn rainfall (

R_{A}

) over Central Vietnam by utilizing a published tree-ring reconstruction of October–November (ON) rainfall derived from the earlywood width measurements from a type of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga sinensis). Autumn rainfall for this region accounts for a large percentage of the annual total, and is often the source of extreme flooding. Central Vietnam’s

R_{A}

is characterized by a pronounced decadal oscillation signal. We use the decadal mode of

R_{A}

along with its notable autocorrelation and significant cross-correlation with basin-wide Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability, to develop four discrete time-series models. The sparse autoregressive model, with Pacific SST as an external variable, accounts for most of the autoregressive

R_{A}

, while taking advantage of the predictability from the basin-wide Pacific climate oscillation. Using this model, the decadal prediction of

R_{A}

can be reasonably achieved with a 10-year-ahead forecasting skill score (SS) about 0.46. We therefore suggest, with this paper, that forecasting

R_{A}

for Central Vietnam for multiple years ahead is possible using a time-series model. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Decadal Variability and Predictability of Climate)

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10 pages, 6090 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperArticle

A First Regional-Scale Estimate of Climate-Driven Terrestrial Carbon Export in Boreal Catchments

by Nazzareno Diodato, Libera Esposito and Gianni Bellocchi

Climate 2018, 6(2), 22; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6020022 - 29 Mar 2018

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 3915

Abstract

Highly dynamic hydro-geomorphic processes are known to drive exports of carbon (C) from river basins, but are not yet fully understood. Within this study, we simulated total organic carbon (TOC) exports at the outlet of Lake Simojärvi in the Gulf of Bothnia (Finland) with a parsimonious hydrological model. With thorough consideration of the dependence of erosion and sediment transport processes on seasonal precipitation rates, a satisfactory agreement was obtained between modelling and experimental observations (1962–2005). This provided confidence in the capability of the parsimonious model to represent temporal and spatial export dynamics. In the period 1860–2014, TOC export at the outlet of Lake Simojärvi was estimated to be highest on average (~5.5 Mg km⁻²·year⁻¹) over 1974–2014 while the lowest TOC export (~2.5 Mg km⁻²·year⁻¹) was estimated in 1860–1918 (with high levels of interannual-to-multidecadal variation). Regional simulations indicate that TOC increased in recent decades (on average, 4–5 Mg km⁻²·year⁻¹ in 1974–2014 against ~3 Mg km⁻²·year⁻¹ in 1940–1973) in northern Scandinavia and Finland. Warming-induced variability of TOC (which depends on precipitation patterns) may have altered the rates of C exchanges in aquatic ecosystems over recent years. TOC exports may continue to increase in boreal catchments with increasing temperatures as represented by future projections. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Decadal Variability and Predictability of Climate)

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12 pages, 1833 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Different Behaviours of the Ross and Weddell Seas Surface Heat Fluxes in the Period 1972–2015

by Giannetta Fusco, Yuri Cotroneo and Giuseppe Aulicino

Climate 2018, 6(1), 17; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6010017 - 14 Mar 2018

Cited by 8 | Viewed by 4470

Abstract

Operational analyses and re-analyses, provided by ECMWF for the period 1972–2015, were used to investigate the behaviour of the surface heat fluxes between ocean and atmosphere, estimated via empirical formulae, over the Ross and Weddell Seas. The presence and thickness of sea ice cover, which strongly affects ocean-atmosphere interactions, was estimated through Special Sensor Microwave Imager and Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder brightness temperatures. Because of the lack of ice information before 1992, daily averaged ice and snow thickness obtained from the 1992–2012 dataset has been used as a ‘climatological year’ for the 1972–2015 period. The heat loss in the Ross Sea reached its maximum in 2008 (−98 W∙m⁻²) and its minimum (−58 W∙m⁻²) in 1980, while in the Weddell Sea, it ranged between −65 W∙m⁻² (1999) and −99 W∙m⁻² (2015). Results showed that the surface heat fluxes behaviour in the two seas moved from opposite to synchronous during the study period. The wavelet analysis was applied to evaluate if this result might be linked to the signature of global climate variability expressed by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Southern Annular Mode (SAM). The synchronous behaviour of the surface heat fluxes in the Ross and Weddell seas, observed since 2001, coincides with a change in the energy peak associated to the time scale of the SAM variability, which moved from 32 to 64 months during 1990s. This change generates a common energy peak for the SAM and ENSO with a lagged in phase relationship between the signals, possibly influencing the behaviour of the surface heat fluxes. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Decadal Variability and Predictability of Climate)

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10 pages, 396 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Shifting Hardiness Zones: Trends in Annual Minimum Temperature

by Nir Y. Krakauer

Climate 2018, 6(1), 15; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6010015 - 09 Mar 2018

Cited by 8 | Viewed by 5578

Abstract

Work published in 2012 revealed that annual minimum temperatures over the coterminous United States (USA) have increased faster than mean temperatures, causing a pronounced poleward shift in the positions of hardiness zones defined by the expected annual minimum temperature. Here, estimates of increases in annual minimum temperatures are updated and extended to other land areas where station temperature records are available. Annual minimum temperatures have increased faster than mean temperatures in seasonally cold regions globally, but have warmed at about the same rate as mean temperatures in tropical climates. The mean increase in annual minimum temperature across the available weather stations was 2.0 °C between 1970 and 2016 (or almost 0.5 °C per decade), as compared to an increase of 1.2 °C in mean temperature. Recent cold winters in regions such as Eastern North America did not clearly break with this trend and were within the range of variability seen in past decades. Overall, annual minimum temperatures appear to be increasing steadily, though with considerable inter-annual variability. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Decadal Variability and Predictability of Climate)

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20 pages, 4568 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Regions Subject to Rainfall Oscillation in the 5–10 Year Band

by Jean-Louis Pinault

Climate 2018, 6(1), 2; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6010002 - 05 Jan 2018

Cited by 15 | Viewed by 5508

Abstract

The decadal oscillation of rainfall in Europe that has been observed since the end of the 20th century is a phenomenon well known to climatologists. Consequences are considerable because the succession of wet or dry years produces floods or, inversely, droughts. Moreover, much research has tried to answer the question about the possible link between the frequency and the intensity of extra-tropical cyclones, which are particularly devastating, and global warming. This work aims at providing an exhaustive description of the rainfall oscillation in the 5–10 year band during one century on a planetary scale. It is shown that the rainfall oscillation results from baroclinic instabilities over the oceans. For that, a joint analysis of the amplitude and the phase of sea surface temperature anomalies and rainfall anomalies is performed, which discloses the mechanisms leading to the alternation of high and low atmospheric pressure systems. For a prospective purpose, some milestones are suggested on a possible link with very long-period Rossby waves in the oceans. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Decadal Variability and Predictability of Climate)

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10273 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Relation between Short-Term and Long-Term Variations of Precipitation

by Klemens Hocke

Climate 2017, 5(4), 96; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli5040096 - 14 Dec 2017

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 3541

Abstract

It is often stated that short-term precipitation of synoptical weather is related to trends or interannual variations of precipitation. We analyzed nine long-term series of daily precipitation values of the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN-D V2.0). Generally, the mean amplitude of short-term variations increases (decreases) if there is a positive (negative) interannual anomaly of precipitation, respectively. In all cases, the amplitude of the short-term variations (periods < 10 days) clearly correlates with the long-term variations (periods > 1.5 years) of precipitation. The correlation coefficient is between 0.7 and 0.95 at periods <8 days. For Kukuihaele (Hawaii), the correlation maximizes at a period of about 14 days. In the other cases, the maximum of the correlation is reached at periods <5 days. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Decadal Variability and Predictability of Climate)

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528 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Trend of Outbreak of Thermal Illness Patients Based on Temperature 2002–2013 in Korea

by Jungeun Kim, Kyoung Jun Song, Ki Jeong Hong and Young Sun Ro

Climate 2017, 5(4), 94; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli5040094 - 13 Dec 2017

Cited by 6 | Viewed by 3784

Abstract

Climate change can have serious impacts on human health, resulting in increased healthcare utilization. Many studies on the relationship between mortality and temperature exist, but few studies focus on heat related outbreaks. Our objective was to verify the relationship between ambient temperature and heat related illnesses during the summer months. This study analyzed the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS) database. Patients with an ICD-10 code T67 (Effects of Heat and Light) presenting between May and September were included. Generalized additive models (GAM) were used to determine the association between ambient temperature and heat related illnesses including differences by region and patient age. A total of 335,759 patients with heat related illnesses were identified from 2002 to 2013. The number of heat related illnesses increased from 14,994 in 2002 to 29,332 in 2013. For every 1 °C increase in the daily temperature above 29.5 °C, the number of patients with heat related illnesses also increased (RR 1.060; 95% CI, 1.059 to 1.061). In addition, a higher association between temperature and outbreaks of heat related to elderly patients (RR 1.084; 95% CI, 1.081 to 1.086) and rural patients (RR 1.229; 95% CI, 1.208 to 1.251) was identified. The association between the daily maximum temperature and outbreaks of heat related illness is identified. The number of patients with heat related illnesses increased over the years and was especially noted in elderly and rural patients. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Decadal Variability and Predictability of Climate)

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12471 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Investigation of the Spatio-Temporal Variations in Atmosphere Thickness Pattern of Iran and the Middle East with Special Focus on Precipitation in Iran

by Iman Rousta, Mehdi Doostkamian, Allah Morad Taherian, Esmaeil Haghighi, Hamid Reza Ghafarian Malamiri and Haraldur Ólafsson

Climate 2017, 5(4), 82; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli5040082 - 01 Nov 2017

Cited by 23 | Viewed by 6030

Abstract

In this study, Geopotential Height (between 500 and 1000 hPa) and precipitation data were obtained from the NCEP/NCAR and IRIMO (Iran Meteorological Organization) for 60 years (1950–2010), respectively. Descriptive features of Atmospheric Thickness (hereafter AT) were calculated and analyzed by using the Mann-Kendall method. The results showed that the maximum AT was recorded in summer because of the dominance of the dynamic, hot subtropical high pressure. Furthermore, upper latitudes experienced more variations in terms of AT. The trend of variations showed that AT has significantly increased in recent years. Further, Saudi Arabia and the Red Sea experienced a more measurable increase in AT. On the other hand, AT had a declining trend over northern parts of Iraq and Iran, but it failed to be statistically considerable. The trend of AT had numerous variations over western parts of Iran, northwestern parts of Iraq, central and eastern parts of Turkey, and a large area of Syria. AT analysis of Iran’s precipitations showed that patterns in the Sea Level Pressure were caused by East Mediterranean, Sudan, and Saudi Arabia low pressures and the high pressures that were located in Europe and Kazakhstan. In addition, in upper-air (500 Hpa), the patterns were influenced by high Mediterranean trough and blocking phenomenon that come from higher latitudes. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Decadal Variability and Predictability of Climate)

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