Research

Jump to: Review

17 pages, 3669 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Spatiotemporal Trends and Attribution of Drought across China from 1901–2100

by Yongxia Ding and Shouzhang Peng

Sustainability 2020, 12(2), 477; https://doi.org/10.3390/su12020477 - 08 Jan 2020

Cited by 86 | Viewed by 3663

Investigating long-term drought trends is of great importance in coping with the adverse effects of global warming. However, little attention has been focused on studying the detailed spatial variability and attribution of drought variation in China. In this study, we first generated a [...] Read more.

Investigating long-term drought trends is of great importance in coping with the adverse effects of global warming. However, little attention has been focused on studying the detailed spatial variability and attribution of drought variation in China. In this study, we first generated a 1 km resolution monthly climate dataset for the period 1901–2100 across China using the delta spatial downscaling method to assess the variability of the Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI). We then developed a simple approach to quantifying the contributions of water supply (precipitation) and demand (potential evapotranspiration, PET) on SPEI variability, according to the meaning of the differentiating SPEI equation. The results indicated that the delta framework could accurately downscale and correct low-spatial-resolution monthly temperatures and precipitation from the Climatic Research Unit and general circulation models (GCMs). Of the 27 GCMs analyzed, the BNU-ESM, CESM1-CAM5, and GFDL-ESM2M were found to be the most accurate in modeling future temperatures and precipitation. We also found that, compared with the past (1901–2017), the climate in the future (2018–2100) will tend toward significant droughts, although both periods showed a high spatial heterogeneity across China. Moreover, the proportion of areas with significantly decreasing SPEI trends was far greater than the proportion of those with increasing trends in most cases, especially for northwestern and northern China. Finally, the proposed approach to quantifying precipitation and PET contributions performed well according to logical evaluations. The percentage contributions of precipitation and PET on SPEI variability varied with study periods, representative concentration pathway scenarios, trend directions, and geographic spaces. In the past, PET contributions for significant downward trends and precipitation contributions for significantly upward trends accounted for 95% and 72%, while their future contributions were 57 ± 22%–149 ± 20% and 95 ± 27%–190 ± 58%, respectively. Overall, our results provide detailed insights for planning flexible adaptation and mitigation strategies to cope with the adverse effects of climate drought across China. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue High Impact Events and Climate Change)

► Show Figures

Figure 1

13 pages, 2557 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Projection of Forest Fire Danger due to Climate Change in the French Mediterranean Region

by Vassiliki Varela, Diamando Vlachogiannis, Athanasios Sfetsos, Stelios Karozis, Nadia Politi and Frédérique Giroud

Sustainability 2019, 11(16), 4284; https://doi.org/10.3390/su11164284 - 08 Aug 2019

Cited by 41 | Viewed by 5200

Abstract

Fire occurrence and behaviour in Mediterranean-type ecosystems strongly depend on the air temperature and wind conditions, the amount of fuel load and the drought conditions that drastically increase flammability, particularly during the summer period. In order to study the fire danger due to [...] Read more.

Fire occurrence and behaviour in Mediterranean-type ecosystems strongly depend on the air temperature and wind conditions, the amount of fuel load and the drought conditions that drastically increase flammability, particularly during the summer period. In order to study the fire danger due to climate change for these ecosystems, the meteorologically based Fire Weather Index (FWI) can be used. The Fire Weather Index (FWI) system, which is part of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS), has been validated and recognized worldwide as one of the most trusted and important indicators for meteorological fire danger mapping. A number of FWI system components (Fire Weather Index, Drought Code, Initial Spread Index and Fire Severity Rating) were estimated and analysed in the current study for the Mediterranean area of France. Daily raster-based data-sets for the fire seasons (1^st May–31^st October) of a historic and a future time period were created for the study area based on representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, outputs of CNRM-SMHI and MPI-SMHI climate models. GIS spatial analyses were applied on the series of the derived daily raster maps in order to provide a number of output maps for the study area. The results portray various levels of changes in fire danger, in the near future, according to the examined indices. Number of days with high and very high FWI values were found to be doubled compared to the historical period, in particular in areas of the Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur (PACA) region and Corsica. The areas with high Initial Spread Index and Seasonal Spread Index values increased as well, forming compact zones of high fire danger in the southern part of the study area, while the Drought Code index did not show remarkable changes. The current study on the evolution of spatial and temporal distribution of forest fire danger due to climate change can provide important knowledge to the decision support process for prevention and management policies of forest fires both at a national and EU level. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue High Impact Events and Climate Change)

► Show Figures

Figure 1

15 pages, 1495 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Identifying Policy Actions Supporting Weather-Related Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation in Finland

by Heikki Tuomenvirta, Hilppa Gregow, Atte Harjanne, Sanna Luhtala, Antti Mäkelä, Karoliina Pilli-Sihvola, Sirkku Juhola, Mikael Hildén, Pirjo Peltonen-Sainio, Ilkka T. Miettinen and Mikko Halonen

Sustainability 2019, 11(13), 3661; https://doi.org/10.3390/su11133661 - 03 Jul 2019

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 4317

Abstract

Climate change adaptation (CCA) policies require scientific input to focus on relevant risks and opportunities, to promote effective and efficient measures and ensure implementation. This calls for policy relevant research to formulate salient policy recommendations. This article examines how CCA research may contribute [...] Read more.

Climate change adaptation (CCA) policies require scientific input to focus on relevant risks and opportunities, to promote effective and efficient measures and ensure implementation. This calls for policy relevant research to formulate salient policy recommendations. This article examines how CCA research may contribute to policy recommendations in the light of idealized set of knowledge production attributes for policy development in Finland. Using general background information on the evolution of CCA research and a case study, we specifically examine how the set of attributes have been manifested in research serving CCA and discuss how they have affected the resulting policy recommendations. We conclude that research serving CCA can be improved by more explicit reflection on the attributes that pay attention to the context of application, the methods of teamwork and a variety of participating organizations, transdisciplinarity of the research, reflexivity based on the values and labour ethos of scientists and novel forms of extended peer review. Such attributes can provide a necessary, although not sufficient, condition for knowledge production that strives to bridge the gap between research and policy. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue High Impact Events and Climate Change)

► Show Figures

Figure 1

15 pages, 2635 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Reduced Carbon Dioxide Sink and Methane Source under Extreme Drought Condition in an Alpine Peatland

by Xiaoming Kang, Liang Yan, Lijuan Cui, Xiaodong Zhang, Yanbin Hao, Haidong Wu, Yuan Zhang, Wei Li, Kerou Zhang, Zhongqing Yan, Yong Li and Jinzhi Wang

Sustainability 2018, 10(11), 4285; https://doi.org/10.3390/su10114285 - 19 Nov 2018

Cited by 20 | Viewed by 3295

Abstract

Potential changes in both the intensity and frequency of extreme drought events are vital aspects of regional climate change that can alter the distribution and dynamics of water availability and subsequently affect carbon cycles at the ecosystem level. The effects of extreme drought [...] Read more.

Potential changes in both the intensity and frequency of extreme drought events are vital aspects of regional climate change that can alter the distribution and dynamics of water availability and subsequently affect carbon cycles at the ecosystem level. The effects of extreme drought events on the carbon budget of peatland in the Zoige plateau and its response mechanisms were studied using an in-field controlled experimental method. The results indicated that the peatland ecosystem of the Zoige plateau functioned as a carbon sink while under the control (CK) or extreme drought (D) treatment throughout the entire growing season. Maximum fluxes of methane (CH₄) emissions and the weakest carbon sink activity from this ecosystem were in the early growth stage, the most powerful carbon sink activity was during the peak growth stage, while the absorption sink activity of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and CH₄ was present during the senescence stage. Extreme drought reduced the gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (R_e) of the peatland ecosystem by 14.5% and 12.6%, respectively (p < 0.05) and the net ability to store carbon was reduced by 11.3%. Overall, the GPP was highly sensitive to extreme drought. Moreover, extreme drought significantly reduced the CH₄ fluxes of the ecosystem and even changed the peatland from a CH₄ emission source to a CH₄ sink. Subsequent to drought treatment, extreme drought was also shown to have a carry-over effect on the carbon budget of this ecosystem. Soil water content and soil temperature were the main driving factors of carbon budget change in the peatland of the Zoige plateau, but with the increase in soil depth, these driving forces were decreased. The findings indicated that frequent extreme drought events in the future might reduce the net carbon sink function of peatland areas, with an especially strong influence on CO₂. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue High Impact Events and Climate Change)

► Show Figures

Figure 1

16 pages, 5047 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceArticle

Reliability–Resiliency–Vulnerability Approach for Drought Analysis in South Korea Using 28 GCMs

by Jang Hyun Sung, Eun-Sung Chung and Shamsuddin Shahid

Sustainability 2018, 10(9), 3043; https://doi.org/10.3390/su10093043 - 27 Aug 2018

Cited by 34 | Viewed by 4805

Abstract

This study developed a Reliability–Resiliency–Vulnerability (R–R–V) approach that aggregates the frequency, duration, and severity of droughts estimated using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). This approach was used to analyze the characteristics of droughts for the current (1976–2005) and the future (2010–2099) climates. [...] Read more.

This study developed a Reliability–Resiliency–Vulnerability (R–R–V) approach that aggregates the frequency, duration, and severity of droughts estimated using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). This approach was used to analyze the characteristics of droughts for the current (1976–2005) and the future (2010–2099) climates. The future climate data obtained from 28 general circulation models (GCMs) of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) was divided into three general periods: Future 1: 2010–2039, Future 2: 2040–2069; and Future 3: 2070–2099. As a result, aggregation R–R–V representing water availability would increase during Future 1, and then gradually decrease until the end of the century. The frequencies of future drought events for Future 2 and Future 3 were similar to the current frequency, while the durations will be longer and the severity will be higher at most locations during Future 3. Thus, the mean of R–R–V over South Korea is expected to decrease, except for Future 1, and the spatial variability of R–R–V is expected to increase. In the end, the changes in the mean and variance of rainfall and temperature would lead to a decrease in the mean and increase in the spatial variation of sustainability in South Korea. This approach and its results can be used to establish a long-term drought strategy for regions where the risk of future drought is expected to increase. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue High Impact Events and Climate Change)

► Show Figures

Figure 1

20 pages, 12532 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Drought Assessment with the Community Land Model for 1951–2010 in East Asia

by Myoung-Jin Um, Mun Mo Kim, Yeonjoo Kim and Daeryong Park

Sustainability 2018, 10(6), 2100; https://doi.org/10.3390/su10062100 - 20 Jun 2018

Cited by 6 | Viewed by 4536

Abstract

Severe droughts have occurred in East Asia; however, observational hydroclimate data that covers the entire region is lacking. The objective of this study is to investigate drought assessment in East Asia. This study estimated three drought indices by generating hydroclimate variables using the [...] Read more.

Severe droughts have occurred in East Asia; however, observational hydroclimate data that covers the entire region is lacking. The objective of this study is to investigate drought assessment in East Asia. This study estimated three drought indices by generating hydroclimate variables using the Community Land Model (CLM). The results of the CLM were verified by comparison with Climatic Research Unit (CRU) data for precipitation and air temperature and the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) data for runoff. Spatial and temporal variations in three drought severity indices, including the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), the standardized runoff index (SRI), and the Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSMI), in East Asia were estimated using the CLM output and compared with the SPEI in the CRU. This study classified drought frequency into four classes depending on the drought severity with 5-deg gapped longitude and latitude for 1951–2010 in East Asia and found that moderately dry (D2) and severely dry (D3) drought frequency classes matched well between the CLM and CRU data. The SPEI in the CLM and CRU data showed very similar frequency magnitudes and an increasing temporal trend. The SRI and SSMI frequencies for CLM also showed an increasing temporal trend compared to the SPEI frequency trend. The results of this study show that CLM outputs are reliable for drought analysis in East Asia. Furthermore, this study suggests the possibility of CLM application to other regions to generate hydroclimate data that is otherwise insufficient. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue High Impact Events and Climate Change)

► Show Figures

Figure 1

Review

Jump to: Research

18 pages, 392 KiB

Open AccessReview

A Framework to Advance the Understanding of the Ecological Effects of Extreme Climate Events

by Carlos Sanz-Lazaro

Sustainability 2019, 11(21), 5954; https://doi.org/10.3390/su11215954 - 25 Oct 2019

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 2737

Abstract

Climate change is modifying disturbance regimes, affecting the severity and occurrence of extreme events. Current experiments investigating extreme events have a large diversity of experimental approaches and key aspects such as the interaction with other disturbances, the timing, and long-term effects are not [...] Read more.

Climate change is modifying disturbance regimes, affecting the severity and occurrence of extreme events. Current experiments investigating extreme events have a large diversity of experimental approaches and key aspects such as the interaction with other disturbances, the timing, and long-term effects are not usually incorporated in a standardized way. This lack of comparability among studies limits advances in this field of research. This study presents a framework that is comprised of two experimental approaches designed to test expected changes on disturbance regime due to climate change. These approaches test the effects of disturbances becoming more clustered and more extreme. They use common descriptor variables regardless of the type of disturbance and ecosystem. This framework is completed with a compilation of procedures that increase the realism of experiments in the aforementioned key aspects. The proposed framework favours comparability among studies and increases our understanding of extreme events. Examples to implement this framework are given using rocky shores as a case study. Far from being perfect, the purpose of this framework is to act as a starting point that triggers the comparability and refinement of these types of experiments needed to advance our understanding of the ecological effects of extreme events. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue High Impact Events and Climate Change)

► Show Figures

Figure 1

18 pages, 5821 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceReview

Extreme Weather Events in Agriculture: A Systematic Review

by Alessia Cogato, Franco Meggio, Massimiliano De Antoni Migliorati and Francesco Marinello

Sustainability 2019, 11(9), 2547; https://doi.org/10.3390/su11092547 - 02 May 2019

Cited by 98 | Viewed by 11371

Abstract

Despite the increase of publications focusing on the consequences of extreme weather events (EWE) for the agricultural sector, a specific review of EWE related to agriculture is missing. This work aimed at assessing the interrelation between EWE and agriculture through a systematic quantitative [...] Read more.

Despite the increase of publications focusing on the consequences of extreme weather events (EWE) for the agricultural sector, a specific review of EWE related to agriculture is missing. This work aimed at assessing the interrelation between EWE and agriculture through a systematic quantitative review of current scientific literature. The review analysed 19 major cropping systems (cereals, legumes, viticulture, horticulture and pastures) across five continents. Documents were extracted from the Scopus database and examined with a text mining tool to appraise the trend of publications across the years, the specific EWE-related issues examined and the research gaps addressed. The results highlighted that food security and economic losses due to the EWE represent a major interest of the scientific community. Implementation of remote sensing and imagery techniques for monitoring and detecting the effects of EWE is still underdeveloped. Large research gaps still lie in the areas concerning the effects of EWE on major cash crops (grapevine and tomato) and the agronomic dynamics of EWE in developing countries. Current knowledge on the physiological dynamics regulating the responses of main crops to EWE appears to be well established, while more research is urgently needed in the fields of mitigation measures and governance systems. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue High Impact Events and Climate Change)

► Show Figures

Figure 1

Journal Menu

Journal Browser

High Impact Events and Climate Change

Share This Special Issue

Special Issue Editors

Special Issue Information

Published Papers (8 papers)

Research

Review

Further Information

Guidelines

MDPI Initiatives

Follow MDPI