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Atmosphere
Special Issues
Prediction and Modeling of Extreme Weather Events
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Prediction and Modeling of Extreme Weather Events

A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Meteorology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 31 August 2024 | Viewed by 3401

Special Issue Editors

Dr. Marcio Cataldi

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Post-Graduate Program in Civil Engineering-Management, Production and Environment, Federal Fluminense University-UFF, Niterói, Rio de Janeiro 24210-240, Brazil
Interests: extreme events; atmospheric modeling; hydrological modeling; energy; climate change
Prof. Dr. Franciele Zanandrea

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Department of Agricultural Engineering and Environment, Federal Fluminense University-UFF, Niterói, Rio de Janeiro 24210-240, Brazil
Interests: hydrological modeling; hydrologic and water resource modeling and simulation

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Extreme events are currently becoming more frequent and more extreme in many regions of the planet. Unfortunately, these events are causing numerous losses of life and property, especially in places where more socioeconomically vulnerable people live, which has awakened interest in the issue of climate justice.

Currently, the countries that are the largest emitters of GHG are also the ones that develop atmospheric general circulation models, used both at the weather and climate scale. However, these models are often neither validated nor adapted to the atmospheric conditions of countries located in the equatorial and subtropical zones of the Southern Hemisphere, for example, countries that have become increasingly vulnerable to extreme events.

Thus, within the idea of climate justice, the proposal would be an edition focused on the application/validation of numerical modeling aimed at extreme events occurring in places whose population presents a high level of socioeconomic vulnerability.

The articles can be both about climatic extremes linked to the occurrence of prolonged droughts, intense precipitation volumes, heat waves, etc., and the prognosis of events on a more regional scale, such as floods, landslides, severe storms, cyclones, etc.

Dr. Marcio Cataldi
Prof. Dr. Franciele Zanandrea
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Atmosphere is an international peer-reviewed open access monthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2400 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • climate justice
  • extreme events
  • numerical modeling
  • socioenvironmental vulnerability

Published Papers (3 papers)

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Research

16 pages, 6539 KiB  
Article
Resonant Forcing by Solar Declination of Rossby Waves at the Tropopause and Implications in Extreme Events, Precipitation, and Heat Waves—Part 1: Theory
by Jean-Louis Pinault
Atmosphere 2024, 15(5), 608; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15050608 - 17 May 2024
Viewed by 365
Abstract
The purpose of this first article is to provide a physical basis for atmospheric Rossby waves at the tropopause to clarify their properties and improve our knowledge of their role in the genesis of extreme precipitation and heat waves. By analogy with the [...] Read more.
The purpose of this first article is to provide a physical basis for atmospheric Rossby waves at the tropopause to clarify their properties and improve our knowledge of their role in the genesis of extreme precipitation and heat waves. By analogy with the oceanic Rossby waves, the role played by the pycnocline in ocean Rossby waves is replaced here by the interface between the polar jet and the ascending air column at the meeting of the polar and Ferrel cell circulation or between the subtropical jet and the descending air column at the meeting of the Ferrel and Hadley cell circulation. In both cases, the Rossby waves are suitable for being resonantly forced in harmonic modes by tuning their natural period to the forcing period. Here, the forcing period is one year as a result of the variation in insolation due to solar declination. A search for cause-and-effect relationships is performed from the joint representation of the amplitude and phase of (1) the velocity of the cold or warm modulated airflows at 250 mb resulting from Rossby waves, (2) the geopotential height at 500 mb, and (3) the precipitation rate or ground air temperature. This is for the dominant harmonic mode whose period can be 1/16, 1/32, or 1/64 year, which reflects the intra-seasonal variations in the rising and falling air columns at the meeting of the polar, Ferrel, and Hadley cell circulation. Harmonics determine the duration of blocking. Two case studies referring to extreme cold and heat waves are presented. Dual cyclone–anticyclone systems seem to favor extreme events. They are formed by two joint vortices of opposite signs reversing over a period, concomitantly with the involved modulated airflows at the tropopause. A second article will be oriented toward (1) the examination of different case studies in order to ascertain the common characteristics of Rossby wave patterns leading to extreme events and (2) a map of the globe revealing future trends in the occurrence of extreme events. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Prediction and Modeling of Extreme Weather Events)
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22 pages, 5910 KiB  
Article
Simulating Heavy Rainfall Associated with Tropical Cyclones and Atmospheric Disturbances in Thailand Using the Coupled WRF-ROMS Model—Sensitivity Analysis of Microphysics and Cumulus Parameterization Schemes
by Kritanai Torsri, Apiwat Faikrua, Pattarapoom Peangta, Rati Sawangwattanaphaibun, Jakrapop Akaranee and Kanoksri Sarinnapakorn
Atmosphere 2023, 14(10), 1574; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14101574 - 17 Oct 2023
Viewed by 1330
Abstract
Predicting heavy rainfall events associated with Tropical Cyclones (TCs) and atmospheric disturbances in Thailand remains challenging. This study introduces a novel approach to enhance forecasting precision by utilizing the coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Regional Oceanic Model (ROMS), known as WRF-ROMS. [...] Read more.
Predicting heavy rainfall events associated with Tropical Cyclones (TCs) and atmospheric disturbances in Thailand remains challenging. This study introduces a novel approach to enhance forecasting precision by utilizing the coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Regional Oceanic Model (ROMS), known as WRF-ROMS. We aim to identify the optimal combination of microphysics (MP) and cumulus (CU) parameterization schemes. Three CU schemes, namely, Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ), Grell 3D Ensemble (G3), and Kain-Fritsch (KF), along with three MP schemes, namely, Eta (ETA), Purdue Lin (LIN), and WRF Single-moment 3-class (WSM3), are selected for the sensitivity analysis. Seven instances of heavy (35.1–90.0 mm) to violent (>90.1 mm) rainfall in Thailand, occurring in 2020 and associated with tropical storms and atmospheric disturbances, are simulated using all possible combinations of the chosen physics schemes. The simulated rain intensities are compared against observations from the National Hydroinformatics Data Center. Performance was assessed using the probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR), and critical success index (CSI) metrics. While the models performed well for light (0.1–10.0 mm) to moderate (10.1–35.0 mm) rainfall, forecasting heavy rainfall remained challenging. Certain parameter combinations showed promise, like BMJ and KF with LIN microphysics, but challenges persisted. Analyzing density distribution of daily rainfall, we found effective parameterizations for different sub-regions. Our findings emphasize the importance of tailored parameterizations for accurate rainfall prediction in Thailand. This customization can benefit water resource management, flood control, and disaster preparedness. Further research should expand datasets, focusing on significant heavy rainfall events and considering climate factors, for example, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) for extended-range forecasts, potentially contributing to sub-seasonal and seasonal (S2S) predictions. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Prediction and Modeling of Extreme Weather Events)
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41 pages, 10463 KiB  
Article
Evaluation of Extreme Hydroclimatic Trends in River Basins Located in the Northeast and South Regions of Brazil
by Priscila Esposte Coutinho and Marcio Cataldi
Atmosphere 2023, 14(9), 1388; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14091388 - 2 Sep 2023
Viewed by 901
Abstract
Brazil has a large availability of natural resources, and its economy was historically built around their exploitation. Changes in climate trends are already causing several environmental impacts, which affect the economic and social organization of the country. Impacts linked to the hydrological cycle [...] Read more.
Brazil has a large availability of natural resources, and its economy was historically built around their exploitation. Changes in climate trends are already causing several environmental impacts, which affect the economic and social organization of the country. Impacts linked to the hydrological cycle are particularly concerning since water resources are used for electricity production, representing approximately 65% of the Brazilian electricity matrix. This study, therefore, aims to evaluate the extreme hydroclimatic trends of river basins located in the Northeast and South regions of the country. For this purpose, we carried out a flow analysis from 2020 to 2100, considering the precipitation data from the BCC CSM1-1, CCSM4, MIROC5, and NorESM1-M models presented in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We used the SMAP rainfall-runoff model to obtain future flow projections for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. As a result, we observed a trend toward water loss and the intensification of extreme events, with an increase in variability in both scenarios. We also noted that these climate models have difficulty reproducing the natural variability of southern basins, as parameterization of small-scale atmospheric processes prevents them from correctly projecting the precipitation. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Prediction and Modeling of Extreme Weather Events)
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