Applying Integrated Exposure-Response Functions to PM2.5 Pollution in India
Abstract
:1. Introduction
1.1. Current GAINS Health Impact Assessment Methodology
1.2. All-Cause vs. Cause-Specific Mortality
1.3. Risk at High Levels of Pollution
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Baseline Mortality Rates
2.2. Assumptions in GAINS
2.2.1. Point Estimates of Relative Risk
2.2.2. Incremental Risk
2.2.3. Urban and Rural Shares of Pollution
2.3. Scenario Selection
2.4. Statistical Life Expectancy
2.5. Years of Life Lost
3. Results
3.1. National Health Impacts
3.2. Regional Health Impacts
3.3. Grid Comparison
3.4. Years of Life Lost
4. Discussion
4.1. Three Exposure-Response Models
4.2. Incremental Impacts
4.3. Statistical Life Expectancy
4.4. Years of Life Lost
4.5. Sensitivity Analysis
4.6. Trends in Urbanization and Population Growth
4.7. Limitations: Model Assumptions and External Validity
4.8. Policy Implications
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Cause of Death | Relative Risk (Central Estimate) | 95% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|
All-Cause | 1.006 | 1.002–1.100 |
Cardiovascular Disease (Ischemic Heart Disease and Stroke) | 1.017 | 1.011–1.024 |
Respiratory Disease (Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and Acute Lower Respiratory Infection) | 1.006 | 0.097–1.016 |
Lung Cancer | 1.014 | 1.006–1.023 |
Age Group | Cause of Premature Mortality | Mortality Estimate | Total Deaths | Population |
---|---|---|---|---|
15–59 | Ischemic Heart Disease | 672,000 | 3,092,700 | 720,694,000 (391,440,200 *) |
Stroke | 180,200 | |||
Acute Lower Respiratory Illness | 214,400 | |||
Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease | 44,900 | |||
Lung Cancer | 20,600 | |||
60–100 | Ischemic Heart Disease | 826,000 | 4,678,400 | 90,312,849 |
Stroke | 646,400 | |||
Acute Lower Respiratory Illness | 870,300 | |||
Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease | 220,000 | |||
Lung Cancer | 31,500 |
Cause of Premature Mortality | Age-Adjusted Share of Annual Mortality Rate (%) |
---|---|
Ischemic Heart Disease | 21.0 |
Acute Lower Respiratory Illness | 9.1 |
Stroke | 7.3 |
Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease | 2.1 |
Lung Cancer | 0.7 |
Exposure-Response Function | Average National Loss in SLE (Months) | 95% Confidence Interval (Months) |
---|---|---|
Log-Linear, All-Cause | 53.7 | 46.3–61.1 |
Log-Linear, Cause-Specific | 49.4 | 42.7–56.1 |
Power Function, Cause-Specific | 32.5 | 29.7–35.2 |
Region | Population Age 30–100 | YOLL (Power Function, Cause-Specific Mortality) | YOLL (Log-Linear, All-Cause Mortality) |
---|---|---|---|
Andaman & Nicobar | 100,330 | 71,041 | 75,405 |
Andhra Pradesh | 31,334,161 | 76,806,481 | 105,513,079 |
Arunachal Pradesh | 626,257 | 852,835 | 1,168,634 |
Assam | 10,700,667 | 29,603,288 | 45,577,660 |
Bihar | 33,518,253 | 105,402,006 | 177,643,919 |
Chandigarh | 188,466 | 593,341 | 1,052,555 |
Chhattisgarh | 8,681,291 | 24,396,711 | 35,680,365 |
Dadra & N. Haveli | 48,125 | 100,420 | 118,675 |
Daman & Diu | 48,744 | 85,837 | 94,496 |
Delhi | 4,988,542 | 17,486,999 | 43,833,733 |
Goa | 528,426 | 962,794 | 1,061,004 |
Gujarat | 20,791,047 | 43,259,945 | 54,757,350 |
Haryana | 9,389,899 | 28,457,447 | 56,689,670 |
Himachal Pradesh | 2,604,428 | 6,119,326 | 7,806,830 |
Jammu & Kashmir | 4,047,044 | 9,127,280 | 12,470,991 |
Jharkhand | 11,598,975 | 38,033,918 | 72,210,222 |
Karnataka | 21,664,583 | 43,394,208 | 50,991,253 |
Kerala | 13,238,535 | 28,926,694 | 36,050,459 |
Madhya Pradesh | 24,900,682 | 58,026,813 | 74,456,342 |
Maharashtra | 38,349,724 | 89,336,917 | 118,150,353 |
Manipur | 954,847 | 2,538,910 | 4,224,297 |
Meghalaya | 1,176,235 | 3,702,158 | 5,955,767 |
Mizoram | 359,130 | 877,077 | 1,168,562 |
Nagaland | 717,811 | 1,330,132 | 1,721,418 |
Orissa | 15,167,417 | 47,199,759 | 79,501,011 |
Pondicherry | 55,121 | 90,030 | 103,332 |
Punjab | 10,172,018 | 31,863,412 | 60,150,281 |
Rajasthan | 23,317,953 | 45,789,791 | 69,256,961 |
Sikkim | 241,827 | 356,728 | 435,056 |
Tamil Nadu | 25,184,943 | 49,909,735 | 60,974,345 |
Tripura | 1,314,249 | 4,179,375 | 6,652,071 |
Uttar Pradesh | 68,524,470 | 225,900,339 | 450,382,887 |
Uttarakhand | 3,574,632 | 9,192,348 | 13,715,040 |
West Bengal | 32,806,548 | 114,273,583 | 233,985,679 |
National Total | 420,915,379 | 1,106,384,265 | 1,883,629,702 |
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Limaye, V.S.; Schöpp, W.; Amann, M. Applying Integrated Exposure-Response Functions to PM2.5 Pollution in India. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2019, 16, 60. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16010060
Limaye VS, Schöpp W, Amann M. Applying Integrated Exposure-Response Functions to PM2.5 Pollution in India. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2019; 16(1):60. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16010060
Chicago/Turabian StyleLimaye, Vijay S., Wolfgang Schöpp, and Markus Amann. 2019. "Applying Integrated Exposure-Response Functions to PM2.5 Pollution in India" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 16, no. 1: 60. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16010060