Application of the ARIMA Model to Predict Under-Reporting of New Cases of Hansen’s Disease during the COVID-19 Pandemic in a Municipality of the Amazon Region
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Data Source
2.3. Exploratory Analysis
- Annual detection coefficient of new cases per 100,000 inhabitants, which assesses the magnitude of the disease and estimates the risk of the occurrence of new cases;
- Annual detection coefficient of new cases in people aged 0–14 years per 100,000 people, which measures the strength of recent transmission;
- Proportion of cases with grade II physical disability among the new cases detected in the year, which estimates the capacity for the early detection and the hidden endemic;
- Proportion of cured cases among new cases in the cohort years, which assesses the quality of attendance and treatment effectiveness.
2.4. Predictive Model
3. Results
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Years | Gen.Det | <15 Years | Cure | Grade II | % PB | % MB | % F | % M |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2001 | 139.18 | 18.56 | 50.00 | 2.20 | 62% | 38% | 38% | 62% |
2002 | 150.80 | 11.23 | 77.68 | 6.13 | 56% | 44% | 40% | 60% |
2003 | 138.81 | 15.31 | 75.18 | 3.07 | 66% | 34% | 48% | 52% |
2004 | 101.26 | 8.37 | 83.87 | 2.46 | 63% | 37% | 39% | 61% |
2005 | 102.80 | 9.02 | 87.88 | 4.88 | 63% | 37% | 46% | 54% |
2006 | 97.33 | 7.07 | 94.29 | 2.95 | 56% | 44% | 39% | 61% |
2007 | 109.87 | 7.73 | 90.34 | 8.26 | 58% | 42% | 49% | 51% |
2008 | 115.75 | 6.02 | 91.59 | 2.48 | 58% | 42% | 42% | 58% |
2009 | 98.07 | 7.12 | 96.58 | 6.28 | 51% | 49% | 38% | 62% |
2010 | 77.08 | 5.15 | 94.69 | 5.58 | 46% | 54% | 38% | 62% |
2011 | 57.79 | 4.15 | 83.62 | 4.91 | 48% | 52% | 39% | 61% |
2012 | 66.92 | 3.22 | 91.21 | 5.98 | 42% | 58% | 37% | 63% |
2013 | 48.86 | 4.30 | 96.55 | 7.59 | 49% | 51% | 48% | 52% |
2014 | 59.15 | 4.94 | 94.05 | 9.09 | 38% | 62% | 37% | 63% |
2015 | 59.40 | 5.91 | 89.80 | 8.80 | 23% | 77% | 38% | 62% |
2016 | 241.20 | 18.02 | 81.11 | 8.70 | 7% | 93% | 53% | 47% |
2017 | 189.34 | 15.82 | 77.30 | 9.84 | 3% | 97% | 50% | 50% |
2018 | 270.68 | 19.19 | 87.45 | 6.70 | 1% | 99% | 55% | 45% |
2019 | 236.35 | 19.06 | 89.23 | 6.06 | 2% | 98% | 53% | 47% |
2020 | 128.31 | 8.49 | 82.40 | 7.06 | 3% | 97% | 49% | 51% |
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da Cunha, V.P.; Botelho, G.M.; de Oliveira, A.H.M.; Monteiro, L.D.; de Barros Franco, D.G.; da Costa Silva, R. Application of the ARIMA Model to Predict Under-Reporting of New Cases of Hansen’s Disease during the COVID-19 Pandemic in a Municipality of the Amazon Region. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2022, 19, 415. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19010415
da Cunha VP, Botelho GM, de Oliveira AHM, Monteiro LD, de Barros Franco DG, da Costa Silva R. Application of the ARIMA Model to Predict Under-Reporting of New Cases of Hansen’s Disease during the COVID-19 Pandemic in a Municipality of the Amazon Region. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2022; 19(1):415. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19010415
Chicago/Turabian Styleda Cunha, Valéria Perim, Glenda Michele Botelho, Ary Henrique Morais de Oliveira, Lorena Dias Monteiro, David Gabriel de Barros Franco, and Rafael da Costa Silva. 2022. "Application of the ARIMA Model to Predict Under-Reporting of New Cases of Hansen’s Disease during the COVID-19 Pandemic in a Municipality of the Amazon Region" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no. 1: 415. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19010415