Grain Production Space Reconstruction and Its Influencing Factors in the Loess Plateau
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Material and Methods
2.1. Analysis Framework
2.2. Study Area
2.3. Data Sources
2.4. GAEZ Model
2.5. Landscape Pattern Index
2.6. Gravity Center Model
2.7. Spatial Econometric Regression Model
3. Results
3.1. Quantity Reconstruction of Grain Production Space
3.2. Quality Reconstruction of Grain Production Space
3.3. Pattern Reconstruction of Grain Production Space
3.4. Driving Factors for Grain Production Space Reconstruction
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Data Type | Key Indicators | Data Source | Temporal Attribute |
---|---|---|---|
Land use data | Grain production space Urban-rural development space Ecological service space | Chinese Academy of Sciences Resource and Environmental Science Data Center | 1980; 2000; 2018 |
Meteorological data | Precipitation Mean maximum temperature Mean minimum temperature Wind speed Relative humidity Rainfall day Solar radiation | China Meteorological Administration | Monthly; 1980–2018 |
Topographic data | DEM | U.S. Space Shuttle Radar Topography Mission | 2008 |
River data | River density | National Basic Geographic Information System | 2017 |
Transportation network | Highway mileage Railway mileage | Atlas of China and Atlas of China Transportation published by Sinomap press | 1981; 2019 |
Socioeconomic data | Total population Gross domestic product | China Statistical Yearbook (The missing statistics were inferred from the GM (1,1) model) | 1980; 2018 |
Time | Quantity/km2 | Proportion of Land System |
---|---|---|
1980 | 204,331 | 32.70% |
2000 | 206,262 | 33.01% |
2018 | 195,175 | 31.24% |
Stage | Reconstruction Pathway | Difference from the Average Quality in Initial Year (kg/hm2) |
---|---|---|
1980–2000 | Grain for Green | 16.61 |
Urban Expansion | −14.16 | |
Deforestation and Reclamation | −39.59 | |
Land Consolidation | 0.03 | |
2000–2018 | Grain for Green | 298.61 |
Urban Expansion | −62.30 | |
Deforestation and Reclamation | −155.07 | |
Land Consolidation | 21.59 |
Statistical Tests | Grain for Green | Urban Expansion | Deforestation and Reclamation | Land Consolidation |
---|---|---|---|---|
Moran’s I | 0.6241 *** | 0.3051 *** | 0.6062 *** | 0.4542 *** |
White test | 0.091 * | 0.000 *** | 0.223 | 0.008 *** |
Lagrange Multiplier (lag) | 182.375 *** | 30.23 *** | 175.957 *** | 129.322 *** |
Robust LM (lag) | 16.462 *** | 1.434 | 22.989 *** | 27.328 *** |
Lagrange Multiplier (error) | 168.935 *** | 43.76 *** | 153.276 *** | 105.439 *** |
Robust LM (error) | 3.022 * | 14.963 *** | 0.308 | 3.444 * |
Driving Factors | Grain for Green | Urban Expansion | Deforestation and Reclamation | Land Consolidation |
---|---|---|---|---|
Average altitude | −0.039 | 0.001 | −0.020 | 0.002 |
Average slope | 9.649 *** | −1.633 *** | 6.742 *** | −0.868 *** |
River density | 6.684 | −8.526 | −91.759 | 0.629 |
Average temperature change | −12.481 | 1.766 | −7.083 | −2.901 |
Average precipitation change | 0.262 ** | −0.063 ** | 0.157 | −0.013 |
Total population change | −0.232 | 0.055 | 0.285 | 0.016 |
GDP change | 0.008 | 0.034 *** | −0.016 | −0.009 |
Highway mileage change | 0.486 *** | 0.067 *** | 0.445 *** | 0.024 ** |
Railway mileage change | 0.358 | 0.188 *** | 0.302 | 0.060 ** |
W-Y | 0.686 *** | 0.701 *** | 0.727 *** | |
Lambda | 0.439 *** | |||
R2 | 0.650 | 0.395 | 0.628 | 0.496 |
LogL | −2131.41 | −1550.65 | −2110.84 | −1424.08 |
AIC | 4284.82 | 3121.32 | 4243.69 | 2870.16 |
SC | 4326.68 | 3159.37 | 4285.54 | 2912.02 |
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Qin, Z.; Liu, X.; Lu, X.; Li, M.; Li, F. Grain Production Space Reconstruction and Its Influencing Factors in the Loess Plateau. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2022, 19, 5876. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19105876
Qin Z, Liu X, Lu X, Li M, Li F. Grain Production Space Reconstruction and Its Influencing Factors in the Loess Plateau. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2022; 19(10):5876. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19105876
Chicago/Turabian StyleQin, Zhangxuan, Xiaolin Liu, Xiaoyan Lu, Mengfei Li, and Fei Li. 2022. "Grain Production Space Reconstruction and Its Influencing Factors in the Loess Plateau" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no. 10: 5876. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19105876