Remaining Useful Life Estimation for Underground Cable Systems Based on Historical Health Index
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Health Index Monitoring System
2.1. Data Collection
2.2. Operating Factor
2.3. Health Index Calculation
3. Remaining Useful Life Estimation
3.1. Health Index Curve Using Normal Distribution
3.2. Aging Curve Using Weibull Distribution
3.3. System Age Prediction
4. Results
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Main Group | Detail |
---|---|
technical information | route name, model type, conductor size, installation date, manufacturing date, manufacturer, installation company, system voltage, current ampacity |
operating information | service age, load level, number of failures, number of repairs, network configuration, route length, number of joints, laying environment |
inspection and test results | visual inspection, PD inspection, IRT inspection, grounding resistance measurement, sheath current measurement |
Considering Item | Criteria | ||
---|---|---|---|
Normal | Satisfactory | Risk | |
service age (yrs.) | <20 | 20–30 | >30 |
load level (%) | <60 | 60–80 | >80 |
Number of failures (times) | 0 | 1–3 | >3 |
Number of repairs (times) | <3 | 3–6 | >6 |
network configuration | network | loop | redial |
route length (km) | <1 | 1–3 | >3 |
number of joints | <10 | 10–30 | >30 |
laying environment | no | road, building | vibration |
Testing Method | Output Value | Criteria | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Good | Satisfactory | Bad | ||
PD inspection | PD pattern | no PD/corona | surface | internal |
amplitude (internal PD), (pC) | <50 | 50–300 | >300 | |
amplitude (surface PD), (nC) | <0.5 | 0.5–2 | >2 | |
trending of amplitude | stable | slight | significant | |
IRT inspection | ΔT phase-ambient (°C) | <10 | 10–15 | >15 |
ΔT phase-phase (°C) | <5 | 5–10 | >10 | |
sheath current | increment of sheath current (%) | <5 | 5–10 | >10 |
grounding resistance | grounding resistance (Ω) | <10 | 10–25 | 25 |
visual inspection | cable jacket | normal | repaired | cracked |
cable supporting structure | normal | stained | broken | |
cable shield grounding | normal | loose | broken | |
splice condition | normal | - | bloated | |
termination condition | normal | dirty | bloated | |
manhole gate | normal | stained | lost | |
manhole wall | normal | small crack | broken | |
manhole floor | normal | small crack | broken | |
manhole cleaning | clean | dirty | flooded | |
manhole ground connection | normal | loose | broken | |
duct bank water ingress | no water | some leakage | high pressure | |
duct bank general condition | normal | small crack | broken | |
number of available ducts | many | a few | unavailable |
System Name | Conductor Size (mm2) | Length (m) | Number of Joints | Laying Environment | Load Percentage | Year in Service |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EF01 | 800 | 2194 | 36 | road, building | 67 | 20 |
EF02 | 800 | 3712 | 39 | road, building | 49 | 27 |
EF03 | 800 | 2446 | 30 | road, building | 34 | 37 |
EF04 | 800 | 2150 | 30 | road, building | 24 | 42 |
EF05 | 400 | 2011 | 39 | road, building | 65 | 29 |
EF06 | 400 | 2057 | 18 | vibration | 32 | 35 |
EF07 | 400 | 1523 | 18 | road, building | 37 | 39 |
EF08 | 800 | 3150 | 27 | vibration | 29 | 39 |
EF09 | 800 | 7942 | 81 | vibration | 37 | 31 |
EF10 | 400 | 1439 | 12 | vibration | 63 | 32 |
EF11 | 800 | 5315 | 60 | vibration | 47 | 29 |
EF12 | 800 | 1208 | 9 | vibration | 63 | 35 |
EF13 | 300 | 1853 | 18 | vibration | 62 | 30 |
System Name | Start Year | End-of-Life Year | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
%HIS | OF | %OHI | %HIS | OF | %OHI | |
EF01 | 98.58 | 0.89 | 87.56 | 59.28 | 0.78 | 46.11 |
EF02 | 99.23 | 0.90 | 89.43 | 60.30 | 0.82 | 49.32 |
EF03 | 98.85 | 0.92 | 90.61 | 61.73 | 0.80 | 49.34 |
EF04 | 99.04 | 0.92 | 90.79 | 58.55 | 0.80 | 46.98 |
EF05 | 99.23 | 0.92 | 90.96 | 59.13 | 0.80 | 47.27 |
EF06 | 99.23 | 0.93 | 92.49 | 56.22 | 0.83 | 46.68 |
EF07 | 98.65 | 0.93 | 91.95 | 56.49 | 0.82 | 46.20 |
EF08 | 99.04 | 0.92 | 90.79 | 59.71 | 0.76 | 45.52 |
EF09 | 98.08 | 0.90 | 88.39 | 59.09 | 0.80 | 47.24 |
EF10 | 99.04 | 0.92 | 91.40 | 58.46 | 0.80 | 46.74 |
EF11 | 98.08 | 0.89 | 87.48 | 53.43 | 0.81 | 43.04 |
EF12 | 100 | 0.93 | 92.90 | 56.02 | 0.79 | 44.44 |
EF13 | 99.04 | 0.91 | 90.48 | 60.01 | 0.81 | 48.34 |
Recorded Year | %OHI of Retired Underground Cable Systems | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EF01 | EF02 | EF03 | EF04 | EF05 | EF06 | EF07 | EF08 | EF09 | EF10 | EF11 | EF12 | EF13 | |
0 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
1 | 87.56 | 89.43 | 90.61 | 90.79 | 90.96 | 92.49 | 91.95 | 90.79 | 88.39 | 91.40 | 87.48 | 92.90 | 90.48 |
3 | 85.05 | 88.91 | 90.61 | 90.43 | 90.43 | 91.95 | 90.56 | 90.43 | 88.04 | 91.04 | 87.14 | 92.54 | 90.13 |
5 | 84.25 | 86.53 | 88.89 | 88.16 | 89.95 | 90.21 | 90.39 | 90.43 | 87.35 | 91.04 | 87.14 | 92.54 | 89.31 |
7 | 83.11 | 83.69 | 87.12 | 87.82 | 87.82 | 89.49 | 89.31 | 88.67 | 85.77 | 87.31 | 86.45 | 86.23 | 78.97 |
9 | 83.11 | 83.07 | 87.12 | 87.12 | 87.12 | 87.51 | 87.77 | 85.14 | 82.15 | 85.48 | 84.62 | 85.42 | 79.76 |
11 | 77.85 | 81.22 | 86.30 | 87.12 | 86.25 | 86.81 | 87.72 | 85.14 | 80.44 | 82.15 | 82.15 | 83.01 | 80.78 |
13 | 74.87 | 78.11 | 85.14 | 86.25 | 83.69 | 85.13 | 86.65 | 83.63 | 75.53 | 80.45 | 80.44 | 82.16 | 79.49 |
15 | 74.87 | 78.07 | 85.14 | 83.17 | 80.23 | 81.60 | 86.94 | 82.00 | 72.26 | 78.23 | 77.38 | 79.04 | 78.14 |
17 | 63.78 | 76.63 | 82.63 | 83.17 | 79.43 | 79.83 | 83.12 | 79.21 | 71.01 | 78.23 | 77.38 | 75.57 | 74.17 |
19 | 59.87 | 67.11 | 77.65 | 80.90 | 76.24 | 79.43 | 82.31 | 76.84 | 71.01 | 76.95 | 76.10 | 74.78 | 74.24 |
20 | 46.11 | 68.03 | 74.95 | 80.27 | 72.10 | 75.22 | 77.19 | 73.32 | 66.25 | 71.06 | 68.46 | 72.91 | 70.83 |
27 | 49.32 | 70.50 | 77.20 | 53.31 | 64.47 | 70.99 | 67.95 | 56.81 | 62.95 | 50.91 | 63.31 | 57.24 | |
29 | 70.50 | 76.44 | 47.27 | 61.96 | 70.99 | 67.95 | 51.48 | 60.06 | 43.04 | 58.59 | 50.69 | ||
30 | 66.49 | 76.44 | 61.96 | 70.99 | 67.11 | 51.48 | 56.17 | 58.59 | 48.34 | ||||
31 | 64.09 | 72.24 | 55.85 | 64.54 | 63.84 | 47.24 | 51.29 | 52.19 | |||||
32 | 61.22 | 72.24 | 55.85 | 64.54 | 63.84 | 46.74 | 52.19 | ||||||
35 | 51.57 | 67.95 | 46.68 | 56.66 | 58.23 | 44.44 | |||||||
37 | 49.34 | 62.41 | 51.43 | 53.06 | |||||||||
39 | 55.85 | 46.20 | 45.52 | ||||||||||
42 | 46.98 | ||||||||||||
1st yr. OF | 0.89 | 0.90 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.93 | 0.93 | 0.92 | 0.90 | 0.92 | 0.89 | 0.93 | 0.91 |
end yr. OF | 0.78 | 0.82 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.83 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.81 | 0.79 | 0.81 |
Actual Age | %OHIavg | Apparent Age | %Error (Age Difference) | Actual Age | %OHIavg | Apparent Age | %Error (Age Difference) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 90.40 | 8.71 | 770.612 | 22 | 69.61 | 21.59 | 1.872 |
2 | 90.13 | 8.84 | 341.967 | 23 | 67.98 | 22.81 | 0.838 |
3 | 89.79 | 9.00 | 200.076 | 24 | 66.30 | 24.08 | 0.335 |
4 | 89.23 | 9.28 | 131.914 | 25 | 64.93 | 25.14 | 0.552 |
5 | 88.94 | 9.42 | 88.474 | 26 | 63.38 | 26.35 | 1.363 |
6 | 87.63 | 10.09 | 68.221 | 27 | 60.85 | 28.37 | 5.079 |
7 | 86.29 | 10.80 | 54.322 | 28 | 60.31 | 28.81 | 2.877 |
8 | 86.12 | 10.90 | 36.214 | 29 | 58.03 | 30.67 | 5.767 |
9 | 85.03 | 11.49 | 27.708 | 30 | 57.18 | 31.38 | 4.591 |
10 | 83.95 | 12.11 | 21.074 | 31 | 54.26 | 33.82 | 9.097 |
11 | 83.61 | 12.30 | 11.833 (max error) | 32 | 53.69 | 34.30 | 7.198 |
12 | 82.62 | 12.88 | 7.327 | 33 | 52.54 | 35.27 | 6.893 |
13 | 81.66 | 13.46 | 3.510 | 34 | 52.25 | 35.52 | 4.476 |
14 | 80.95 | 13.89 | 0.805 | 35 | 50.28 | 37.22 | 6.344 |
15 | 79.70 | 14.66 | 2.236 | 36 | 49.38 | 38.00 | 5.556 |
16 | 78.19 | 15.63 | 2.330 | 37 | 48.88 | 38.43 | 3.871 |
17 | 77.24 | 16.25 | 4.426 | 38 | 48.42 | 38.83 | 2.190 |
18 | 75.47 | 17.43 | 3.156 | 39 | 47.39 | 39.73 | 1.868 |
19 | 74.88 | 17.84 | 6.123 | 40 | 47.21 | 39.89 | 0.286 (min error) |
20 | 71.26 | 20.38 | 1.918 | 41 | 47.03 | 40.04 | 2.334 |
21 | 70.51 | 20.93 | 0.346 | 42 | 46.71 | 40.33 | 3.985 |
average error | 3.79% |
Feeder | Latest %OHI | Actual Age | Expected EoL | Apparent Age | RUL |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
F01 | 87.82 | 8 | 40 | 9.99 | 30.01 |
F02 | 80.44 | 12 | 40 | 14.20 | 25.80 |
F03 | 75.57 | 17 | 40 | 17.37 | 22.63 |
F04 | 79.21 | 17 | 40 | 14.97 | 25.03 |
F05 | 71.06 | 21 | 40 | 20.53 | 19.47 |
F06 | 72.10 | 22 | 40 | 19.78 | 20.22 |
F07 | 70.96 | 25 | 40 | 20.60 | 19.40 |
F08 | 67.07 | 25 | 40 | 23.49 | 16.51 |
F09 | 60.97 | 33 | 40 | 28.28 | 11.72 |
F10 | 53.06 | 36 | 40 | 34.84 | 5.16 |
%OHI | Condition | Recommendation | Goals |
---|---|---|---|
100–75 | good | normal maintenance | minimal maintenance |
75–50 | satisfactory | increase maintenance period, repair minor defections | defects localization, maintain system condition, prolong the RUL |
<50 | bad (EoL) | urgent action required | fully replacement if no possibility to extend the RUL |
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Somsak, T.; Suwanasri, T.; Suwanasri, C. Remaining Useful Life Estimation for Underground Cable Systems Based on Historical Health Index. Energies 2022, 15, 9447. https://doi.org/10.3390/en15249447
Somsak T, Suwanasri T, Suwanasri C. Remaining Useful Life Estimation for Underground Cable Systems Based on Historical Health Index. Energies. 2022; 15(24):9447. https://doi.org/10.3390/en15249447
Chicago/Turabian StyleSomsak, Tanachai, Thanapong Suwanasri, and Cattareeya Suwanasri. 2022. "Remaining Useful Life Estimation for Underground Cable Systems Based on Historical Health Index" Energies 15, no. 24: 9447. https://doi.org/10.3390/en15249447