Price Forecasting of Electricity Markets in the Presence of a High Penetration of Wind Power Generators
Abstract
:1. Introduction
- Electricity price forecasting in a system with high penetration of wind power generators;
- Considering the effect of wind speed on hourly electricity price;
- Proposing a hybrid forecasting method including WT, Bivariate ARIMA and RBFN.
2. Proposed Electricity Market Prices Forecasting Method
2.1. Wavelet Transform
2.2. Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFN)
2.3. Bivariate ARIMA-Wavelet and RBFN
3. Prediction Accuracy
4. Numerical Study
5. Conclusions
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
AR | Autoregressive |
ARIMA | Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average |
ARMA | Autoregressive moving average |
BARIMA | Bivariate Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average |
CWT | Continuous Wavelet transform |
DWT | Discrete Wavelet transform |
FWT | Fast Wavelet transform |
IWT | Integrated Wavelet transform |
GARCH | Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic |
NN | Neural Network |
MA | Moving average |
PSO | Particle swarm optimization |
RBFN | Radial Basis function neural network |
WT | Wavelet transform |
W-ARIMA | Wavelet transform with ARIMA |
W-ARIMA-RBFN | Wavelet transform with ARIMA and RBFN |
W-BARIMA | Wavelet transform with BARIMA |
W-BARIMA-RBFN | Wavelet transform with BARIMA and RBFN |
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Region | Capacity (MW) | Average Wind Speed (Knot) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
February | May | August | November | |||
Galicia | 3238 | 0.172 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 6 |
Navarra | 976 | 0.052 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Asturias | 414 | 0.022 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 8 |
Aragon | 1751 | 0.093 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Castilla y Leon | 4540 | 0.241 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
Castilla la Mancha | 3761 | 0.199 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
C. Valenciana | 1174 | 0.062 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Andalucia | 2993 | 0.159 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
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Share and Cite
Talari, S.; Shafie-khah, M.; Osório, G.J.; Wang, F.; Heidari, A.; Catalão, J.P.S. Price Forecasting of Electricity Markets in the Presence of a High Penetration of Wind Power Generators. Sustainability 2017, 9, 2065. https://doi.org/10.3390/su9112065
Talari S, Shafie-khah M, Osório GJ, Wang F, Heidari A, Catalão JPS. Price Forecasting of Electricity Markets in the Presence of a High Penetration of Wind Power Generators. Sustainability. 2017; 9(11):2065. https://doi.org/10.3390/su9112065
Chicago/Turabian StyleTalari, Saber, Miadreza Shafie-khah, Gerardo J. Osório, Fei Wang, Alireza Heidari, and João P. S. Catalão. 2017. "Price Forecasting of Electricity Markets in the Presence of a High Penetration of Wind Power Generators" Sustainability 9, no. 11: 2065. https://doi.org/10.3390/su9112065