Past and Projected Weather Pattern Persistence with Associated Multi-Hazards in the British Isles
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Methods and Data
2.1. Lamb Weather Types (LWTs)
- Flow direction is given by tan−1(W/S) and is calculated on an eight-point compass with 45° per sector. If W is positive, add 180°. Thus, the W-type occurs between 247.5° and 292.5° (Equations (1) and (2));
- Lamb pure directional weather types (e.g., N, S, or E-types) correspond to an essentially straight flow, when |Z| is less than F (Equation (6));
- Lamb’s pure cyclonic (C) and anticyclonic (A) types are identified when |Z| is greater than 2F, respectively with Z > 0 and Z < 0 (Equations (3) and (6));
- Lamb’s hybrid types (e.g., AE and CSW) are characterised by a flow partially anticyclonic/cyclonic, with |Z| lying between F and 2F (Equations (3) and (6));
- An unclassified (U) type is obtained when F and |Z| are less than 6, with the choice of 6 depending on grid spacing, meaning that if using a grid resolution finer than 5° by 10° latitude-longitude it needs to be tuned (Equations (3) and (6)).
2.2. Data
2.3. Persistence and Trend Analyses
2.4. Indices of Winter Fluvial Flooding-Wind Hazards and Summer UHI Intensity
3. Results
3.1. Persistence of Weather Patterns (MME)
3.2. Persistence of Weather Patterns (AOGCMs)
3.3. Frequency of Weather Patterns (MMEM)
3.4. Application to Future Multi-Hazards
4. Discussion and Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
References
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LWT | Description |
---|---|
Anticyclonic (A) | Anticyclones centred over, near, or extending over the British Isles. |
Cyclonic (C) | Depressions passing frequently or stagnating over the British Isles. The central isobar of the depression should extend over the mainland of Britain or Ireland. |
Westerly (W) | High pressure to the south and low pressure to the north, giving a sequence of depressions travelling eastward across the Atlantic. This is the main, progressive zonal type. |
North-westerly (NW) | Azores anticyclone displaced northeast or north towards the British Isles. Depressions forming near Iceland and travelling south-east into the North Sea. |
Easterly (E) | Anticyclones over Scandinavia extending towards Iceland across the Norwegian Sea. Depressions generally to the south of the region over south-west Europe and the western Atlantic. |
Northerly (N) | High pressure to the west or northwest of Britain extending from Greenland southwards, possibly as far as the Azores. Depressions travel southward from the Norwegian Sea. |
Southerly (S) | High pressure over central and northern Europe. Depressions blocked to the west or travelling north or north-eastwards off western coasts. |
Unclassified (U) | Weather pattern weak or chaotic. |
Model Name | Research Institute | Lat-Lon Resolution | Ensemble Member |
---|---|---|---|
HadGEM2-ES | Met Office, United Kingdom | 1.25° × 1.875° | r1i1p1 |
MPI-ESM-LR | Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany | 1.9° × 1.9° | r1i1p1 |
MRI-CGCM3 | Meteorological Research Institute, Japan | 1.1° × 1.1° | r1i1p1 |
CNRM-CM5 | National Centre for Meteorological Research, France | 1.4° × 1.4° | r1i1p1 |
CanESM2 | Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis, Canada | 2.8° × 2.8° | r1i1p1 |
MIROC5 | Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, Japan | 1.4° × 1.4° | r1i1p1 |
CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 | Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Australia | 1.9° × 1.9° | r10i1p1 |
IPSL-CM5A-LR | Institute Pierre-Simon Laplace, France | 1.9° × 3.75° | r1i1p1 |
CCSM4 | National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA | 0.94° × 1.25° | r6i1p1 |
GFDL-CM3 | Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA | 2° × 2.5° | r1i1p1 |
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De Luca, P.; Harpham, C.; Wilby, R.L.; Hillier, J.K.; Franzke, C.L.E.; Leckebusch, G.C. Past and Projected Weather Pattern Persistence with Associated Multi-Hazards in the British Isles. Atmosphere 2019, 10, 577. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10100577
De Luca P, Harpham C, Wilby RL, Hillier JK, Franzke CLE, Leckebusch GC. Past and Projected Weather Pattern Persistence with Associated Multi-Hazards in the British Isles. Atmosphere. 2019; 10(10):577. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10100577
Chicago/Turabian StyleDe Luca, Paolo, Colin Harpham, Robert L. Wilby, John K. Hillier, Christian L. E. Franzke, and Gregor C. Leckebusch. 2019. "Past and Projected Weather Pattern Persistence with Associated Multi-Hazards in the British Isles" Atmosphere 10, no. 10: 577. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10100577