A Quantitative Benefit–Risk Analysis of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 Vaccine among People under 60 in Italy
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Methods
2.1. Parameters of the Simulation
2.2. Updated Values of the Parameters
2.3. Ethics Committee Approval
3. Results
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Original Estimates | Updated Estimates | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Parameter | Estimate (95%CI) | Ref. | Estimate (95%CI) | Ref. |
Vaccine Efficacy | 72.30% (63.10–79.30%) | [3] | ||
COVID-19 death rate (20–29) | 1.37 (0.94–1.94) | [11,12] | ||
COVID-19 death rate (30–49) | 10.20 (9.40–11.10) | [11,12] | ||
COVID-19 death rate (50–59) | 55.70 (53.20–58.10) | [11,12] | ||
CVST incidence rate (20–29) | 0.64 (0.29–1.42) | [4] | ||
CVST incidence rate (30–49) | 1.81 (1.29–2.32) | [4] | ||
CVST incidence rate (50–59) | 1.00 (0.62–1.61) | [4] | ||
DIC incidence rate (20–29) | 0.60 (0.34–1.06) | [4] | ||
DIC incidence rate (30–49) | 1.08 (0.26–1.90) | [4] | ||
DIC incidence rate (50–59) | 3.07 (2.50–3.77) | [4] | ||
TEE incidence rate (20–29) | 40.14 (33.75–47.46) | [4] | ||
TEE incidence rate (30–49) | 85.08 (79.40–91.12) | [4] | ||
TEE incidence rate (50–59) | 200.73 (189.54–212.56) | [4] | ||
RR CVST in vaccine users (20–29) | 21.80 (0.28–121.30) | [4] | 44.92 (18.05–92.55) | [4,13,14] |
RR CVST in vaccine users (30–49) | 3.67 (1.90–6.40) | [4] | 7.98 (5.56–11.11) | [4,13,14] |
RR CVST in vaccine users (50–59) | 1.40 (0.20–5.10) | [4] | 8.33 (4.31–14.56) | [4,13,14] |
RR DIC in vaccine users (20–29) | 23.30 (0.30–129.40) | [4] | 6.84 (0.17–38.1) | [4,13,14] |
RR DIC in vaccine users (30–49) | 2.02 (0.54–5.16) | [4] | 4.14 (2.07–7.42) | [4,13,14] |
RR DIC in vaccine users (50–59) | 0.23 (0.01–1.27) | [4] | 0.68 (0.14–1.98) | [4,13,14] |
RR TEE in vaccine users (20–29) | 3.82 (1.91–6.84) | [4] | ||
RR TEE in vaccine users (30–49) | 1.30 (1.03–1.62) | [4] | ||
RR TEE in vaccine users (50–59) | 0.41 (0.29–0.56) | [4] | ||
DIC fatality rate | 0.57 (0.18–0.90) | [4] | 0.53 (0.26–0.79) | [4,13,14] |
CVST fatality rate | 0.33 (0.13–0.59) | [4] | 0.28 (0.16–0.42) | [4,13,14] |
TEE fatality rate | 0.22 (0.17–0.29) | [4] |
COVID-19 Deaths Prevented per Excess Death for Embolic and Thrombotic Events | COVID-19 Deaths Prevented per Excess Death for Disseminated Intravascular Coagulation and Cerebral Venous Sinus Thrombosis | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Based on Original Estimates | Based on Original Estimates | Based on Updated Estimates | |||
Age | B-R Ratio (95% UI) | Age | B-R Ratio (95% UI) | Age | B-R Ratio (95% UI) |
20–29 | 0.70 (0.27–2.11) | 20–29 | 0.93 (0.06–14.3) | 18–24 | 1.48 (0.33–5.54) |
30–49 | 22.9 (10.1–186.4) | 30–49 | 52.2 (16.6–179.1) | 25–49 | 22.7 (10.9–44.7) |
50–59 | 1577.1 (1176.9–2121.5) | 50–59 | 3506.7 (166.0–54,427.9) | 50–59 | 305 (109.7–851.9) |
30% under-Reporting | 50% under-Reporting | 80% under-Reporting | |
---|---|---|---|
Age | B-R Ratio (95% UI) | B-R Ratio (95% UI) | B-R Ratio (95% UI) |
18–24 | 0.49 (0.19–1.46) | 0.34 (0.13–1.04) | 0.14 (0.05–0.42) |
25–49 | 16.1 (7.10–131.6) | 11.4 (5.03–98.1) | 4.59 (2.03–36.5) |
50–59 | 1104.4 (823.2–1483.4) | 788.9 (588.7–1058.7) | 315.6 (235.7–422.6) |
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Palladino, R.; Ceriotti, D.; De Ambrosi, D.; De Vito, M.; Farsoni, M.; Seminara, G.; Barone-Adesi, F. A Quantitative Benefit–Risk Analysis of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 Vaccine among People under 60 in Italy. Vaccines 2021, 9, 618. https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines9060618
Palladino R, Ceriotti D, De Ambrosi D, De Vito M, Farsoni M, Seminara G, Barone-Adesi F. A Quantitative Benefit–Risk Analysis of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 Vaccine among People under 60 in Italy. Vaccines. 2021; 9(6):618. https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines9060618
Chicago/Turabian StylePalladino, Raffaele, Daniele Ceriotti, Damiano De Ambrosi, Marta De Vito, Marco Farsoni, Giuseppina Seminara, and Francesco Barone-Adesi. 2021. "A Quantitative Benefit–Risk Analysis of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 Vaccine among People under 60 in Italy" Vaccines 9, no. 6: 618. https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines9060618