Future Changes in Built Environment Risk to Coastal Flooding, Permanent Inundation and Coastal Erosion Hazards
Abstract
:1. Introduction
- To compare the performance of static and dynamic models for assessing coastal flooding exposure to relative sea-level rise (RSLR). Static models extrapolate a fixed water-surface elevation in space to identify land of lower elevation with potential for coastal flooding—the effects of RSLR are assessed via linear addition of RSLR increments to that water surface. Static models are a relative simplification. Dynamic models use detailed hydrodynamic models to simulate the overland flow of water in a physically realistic way—RSLR scenarios are simulated separately to account for the dynamic effects of RSLR. Our comparison of static and dynamic models adds to a body of literature from several cases studies assessing the implications of coastal-flood modelling method on coastal-flood hazard assessments [29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36].
- To compare the impacts of incremental RSLR on the gradual transition of exposed land area, number and replacement value of buildings and building flood depths from three coastal hazards drivers: coastal flooding during extreme storm-tides, permanent inundation and erosion. This is important because different hazards have different implications for future RSLR adaptation yet are commonly treated in isolation and to our knowledge these three hazards have not been compared together elsewhere. Whereas frequent nuisance or rare but extreme coastal flooding can be tolerated by some communities at present-day MSL [25,46,47], RSLR will increase the frequency of presently large but rare coastal flooding events. Regular coastal flooding or permanent inundation of built land is likely to cause adaptive action [48]. Likewise, coastal erosion removes the land surface, forcing a permanent land-use change [13,49]. Therefore, it may be possible to incrementally adapt to one hazard, but earlier transformational adaptation may be required for another hazard, with RSLR. Overlaying information from multiple hazards resolved in both space and time (here using RSLR as a surrogate for time) can show which hazards will have more impact, where and when.
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Location
2.2. Hazard-Event and Climate-Change Scenarios
2.3. Coastal Flood Modelling and Mapping
2.3.1. Permanent Inundation
2.3.2. Coastal Flooding
2.3.3. Coastal Flood and Permanent Inundation Modelling
- Dynamic model—a hydrodynamic model individually run for each scenario in Table 2.
- Static inclined—static GIS-based mapping using the spatially-varying water surface at the shoreline obtained from the hydrodynamic model run using present-day MSL (0 m RSLR) and with the increments of RSLR in Table 2 subsequently added to the spatially-varying water surface.
- Static planar—static GIS-based mapping using a planar water surface representing the sea level measured at a sea-level recorder within the harbor and with the increments of RSLR in Table 2 subsequently added to the planar water surface.
2.4. Coastal Erosion Assessment and Mapping
2.5. Impact Modelling and Mapping
3. Results
3.1. Coastal Flooding and Inundation Exposure in Tauranga Harbour
3.2. Comparing Dynamic, Static-Inclined and Static-Planar Models for Coastal-Flood Modelling
3.3. Comparison of Coastal Flooding and Erosion
3.4. Impact Thresholds
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Timeframe in Years | RSLR Scenario (m) | Erosion Scenario |
---|---|---|
Present-day (2020) | 0.0 | Emedium, Ehigh |
2080 | 0.4 | Emedium |
0.6 | Emedium, Ehigh | |
2130 | 0.8 | Emedium |
1.25 | Emedium, Ehigh | |
1.6 | Ehigh |
Coastal Flooding/Inundation Scenarios | Sea-Level Rise Scenarios (m) |
---|---|
MHWS (permanent inundation) | 0, 0.1, 0.2, …, 1.0, 1.15, 1.5 |
1% AEP storm-tide (coastal flooding) | 0, 0.1, 0.2, …, 1.0, 1.15, 1.5 |
20% AEP storm-tide (coastal flooding) | =1% AEP + 0.14 m + RSLR scenarios |
RSLR | NZ RCP2.6 M (Median) | NZ RCP4.5 M (Median) | NZ RCP8.5 M (Median) | NZ H+ |
---|---|---|---|---|
0 | 2020 | 2020 | 2020 | 2020 |
0.1 | 2040 | 2038 | 2037 | 2033 |
0.14 | 2048 | 2046 | 2043 | 2038 |
0.2 | 2062 | 2057 | 2051 | 2044 |
0.3 | 2082 | 2073 | 2063 | 2054 |
0.4 | 2104 | 2089 | 2074 | 2062 |
0.5 | 2126 | 2105 | 2083 | 2070 |
0.6 | 2148 | 2121 | 2092 | 2077 |
0.7 | 2170 | 2136 | 2100 | 2084 |
0.8 | 2192 | 2150 | 2107 | 2091 |
0.9 | 2215 | 2165 | 2115 | 2097 |
1.0 | 2238 | 2178 | 2123 | 2104 |
1.1 | 2261 | 2192 | 2131 | 2111 |
1.2 | 2285 | 2205 | 2140 | 2117 |
1.3 | 2309 | 2218 | 2148 | 2123 |
1.4 | 2334 | 2231 | 2153 | 2129 |
1.5 | 2359 | 2244 | 2159 | 2135 |
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Stephens, S.A.; Paulik, R.; Reeve, G.; Wadhwa, S.; Popovich, B.; Shand, T.; Haughey, R. Future Changes in Built Environment Risk to Coastal Flooding, Permanent Inundation and Coastal Erosion Hazards. J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2021, 9, 1011. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse9091011
Stephens SA, Paulik R, Reeve G, Wadhwa S, Popovich B, Shand T, Haughey R. Future Changes in Built Environment Risk to Coastal Flooding, Permanent Inundation and Coastal Erosion Hazards. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering. 2021; 9(9):1011. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse9091011
Chicago/Turabian StyleStephens, Scott A., Ryan Paulik, Glen Reeve, Sanjay Wadhwa, Ben Popovich, Tom Shand, and Rebecca Haughey. 2021. "Future Changes in Built Environment Risk to Coastal Flooding, Permanent Inundation and Coastal Erosion Hazards" Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 9, no. 9: 1011. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse9091011