Predicting the Suitable Geographical Distribution of Sinadoxa Corydalifolia under Different Climate Change Scenarios in the Three-River Region Using the MaxEnt Model
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Data
2.2.1. Presence Records of Sinadoxa Corydalifolia
2.2.2. Environmental Variables and Processing
2.3. MaxEnt Model
3. Results
3.1. Model Validation
3.2. Predicted Current Potentially Suitable Distribution
3.3. Predicted Future Suitable Distribution
4. Discussion
4.1. Uncertainty of the Results
4.2. The Relationship between the Distribution and Environmental Factors
4.3. Change in the Spatial Distribution under Climate Change
4.4. Implications
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Code | Variables | Unit |
---|---|---|
Bio2 | Mean diurnal air temperature range (mean of monthly (maximum air temperature–minimum air temperature)) | °C * 10 |
Bio3 | Isothermality | Dimensionless |
Bio4 | Air temperature seasonality | Dimensionless |
Bio8 | Mean air temperature of the wettest quarter | °C * 10 |
Bio9 | Mean air temperature of the driest quarter | °C * 10 |
Bio13 | Precipitation of the wettest month | mm/month |
Bio14 | Precipitation of the driest month | mm/month |
Bio15 | Precipitation seasonality (coefficient of variation) | Dimensionless |
Bio19 | Precipitation of the coldest quarter | mm/quarter |
Elevation | Elevation | m |
Slope | Slope | % |
Aspect | Aspect | Degree |
Variable | Percent Contribution (%) |
---|---|
bio_04 | 34.4 |
bio_09 | 27.6 |
bio_02 | 19.4 |
aspect | 7.9 |
bio_14 | 4.6 |
bio_13 | 3 |
bio_15 | 1.2 |
bio_19 | 0.9 |
slope | 0.4 |
bio_03 | 0.3 |
bio_08 | 0.2 |
dem | 0.1 |
Scenarios | Generally Suitable | Moderately Suitable | Highly Suitable | Perfectly Suitable | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
current | area (km2) | 1409 | 972 | 726 | 3107 |
Percentage of area (%) | 0.26 | 0.18 | 0.13 | 0.57 | |
40sRCP26 | area (km2) | 2505 | 1595 | 2071 | 6171 |
Percentage of area (%) | 0.46 | 0.29 | 0.38 | 1.12 | |
40sRCP45 | area (km2) | 2378 | 1538 | 2101 | 6017 |
Percentage of area (%) | 0.43 | 0.28 | 0.38 | 1.10 | |
40sRCP60 | area (km2) | 1173 | 867 | 465 | 2505 |
Percentage of area (%) | 0. 21 | 0.16 | 0.08 | 0.46 | |
40sRCP80 | area (km2) | 1331 | 1378 | 1529 | 4238 |
Percentage of area (%) | 0.24 | 0.25 | 0.28 | 0.77 | |
60sRCP26 | area (km2) | 7656 | 5511 | 5132 | 18,299 |
Percentage of area (%) | 1.39 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 3.33 | |
60sRCP45 | area (km2) | 4942 | 3259 | 2153 | 10,354 |
Percentage of area (%) | 0.90 | 0.59 | 0.39 | 1.89 | |
60sRCP60 | area (km2) | 6066 | 3607 | 2304 | 11,977 |
Percentage of area (%) | 1.10 | 0.66 | 0.42 | 2.18 | |
60sRCP80 | area (km2) | 3284 | 2300 | 1955 | 7539 |
Percentage of area (%) | 0.60 | 0.42 | 0.36 | 1.37 |
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Huang, X.; Ma, L.; Chen, C.; Zhou, H.; Yao, B.; Ma, Z. Predicting the Suitable Geographical Distribution of Sinadoxa Corydalifolia under Different Climate Change Scenarios in the Three-River Region Using the MaxEnt Model. Plants 2020, 9, 1015. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants9081015
Huang X, Ma L, Chen C, Zhou H, Yao B, Ma Z. Predicting the Suitable Geographical Distribution of Sinadoxa Corydalifolia under Different Climate Change Scenarios in the Three-River Region Using the MaxEnt Model. Plants. 2020; 9(8):1015. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants9081015
Chicago/Turabian StyleHuang, Xiaotao, Li Ma, Chunbo Chen, Huakun Zhou, Buqing Yao, and Zhen Ma. 2020. "Predicting the Suitable Geographical Distribution of Sinadoxa Corydalifolia under Different Climate Change Scenarios in the Three-River Region Using the MaxEnt Model" Plants 9, no. 8: 1015. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants9081015