Lake Volume Data Analyses: A Deep Look into the Shrinking and Expansion Patterns of Lakes Azuei and Enriquillo, Hispaniola
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Data Acquisition and Observational Volume Time Series
2.2. Missing Data Imputation
2.2.1. Alternative Observational ∆V Datasets and the Characteristics of Sudden Changes
2.2.2. Evenly Spaced Time Series Construction
2.3. Time Series Analysis
3. Results
3.1. Monthly Imputed Volume and Volume Change Time Series
3.2. Periodicity Detection: Wavelet Transform
3.3. Change Point Detection: Pettitt Test
3.4. Trend Test: Mann-Kendall Test and Linear Regression Model
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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NRMSE | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Imputation Method | Lake Azuei | Lake Enriquillo | ||||
1996–2000 | 2000–2001 | 2001–2014 | 1996–2000 | 2000–2001 | 2001–2014 | |
Linear Interpolation | 0.272 | 0.380 | 0.020 | 0.108 | 0.056 | 0.018 |
spline Interpolation | 0.412 | 0.694 | 0.027 | 0.178 | 0.120 | 0.029 |
Stineman Interpolation | 0.269 | 0.375 | 0.019 | 0.094 | 0.048 | 0.016 |
Kalman Smoothing using Structural Model | 0.282 | 5.865 | 0.068 | 0.105 | 0.206 | 0.089 |
Kalman Smoothing using ARIMA State Space Representation | 0.295 | 6.135 | 0.070 | 0.110 | 0.215 | 0.093 |
Simple Moving Average | 0.327 | 0.475 | 0.031 | 0.191 | 0.137 | 0.034 |
Linear Weighted Moving Average | 0.306 | 0.434 | 0.027 | 0.171 | 0.121 | 0.029 |
Exponential Weighted Moving Average | 0.295 | 0.438 | 0.026 | 0.158 | 0.121 | 0.027 |
Random Value Sample | 1.478 | 1.809 | 1.442 | 1.723 | 1.735 | 1.536 |
Seasonally Decomposition by Linear Interpolation | 0.271 | 0.381 | 0.020 | 0.111 | 0.055 | 0.018 |
Seasonally Decomposition by Random | 1.599 | 1.633 | 1.405 | 1.470 | 1.818 | 1.579 |
Seasonally Decomposition by Weighted Moving Average | 0.297 | 0.429 | 0.026 | 0.156 | 0.122 | 0.027 |
Seasonally Split by Linear Interpolation | 0.272 | 0.379 | 0.020 | 0.110 | 0.056 | 0.018 |
Seasonally Split by Random | 1.739 | 1.698 | 1.426 | 1.659 | 1.733 | 1.399 |
Seasonally Split by Weighted Moving Average | 0.293 | 0.433 | 0.025 | 0.158 | 0.127 | 0.027 |
Lake | Series | No. Points | Min | 1st Qu | Median | Mean | 3rd Qu | Max | SD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Enriquillo | 32-day dataset | 112 | −0.0415 | −0.0072 | 0.0084 | 0.0221 | 0.0320 | 0.3437 | 0.0509 |
Monthly imputed | 216 | −0.0483 | −0.0073 | 0.0009 | 0.0109 | 0.0165 | 0.1943 | 0.0362 | |
Azuei | 32-day dataset | 165 | −0.0197 | −0.0014 | 0.0032 | 0.0029 | 0.0061 | 0.0435 | 0.0083 |
Monthly imputed | 216 | −0.0183 | −0.0017 | 0.0007 | 0.0019 | 0.0044 | 0.0377 | 0.0070 |
Sub-Period before Shift | Sub-Period after Shift | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Series | Z Statistic | p-Value | Z Statistic | p-Value | ||
Lake Enriquillo | 0.013 | 0.848 | N | −0.100 | 0.122 | N |
Lake Azuei | 0.013 | 0.840 | N | −0.082 | 0.211 | N |
Lake Enriquillo | Lake Azuei | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Series | t Statistic | p-Value | t Statistic | p-Value | ||
Trend | −0.423 | 0.673 | N | −0.524 | 0.601 | N |
Change Point | 2.596 | 0.010 | * | 0.631 | 0.043 | * |
6-month periodicity | 0.413 | 0.680 | N | 3.610 | 0.0004 | *** |
Annual periodicity | 4.787 | 3.62 × 10−6 | *** | 2.742 | 0.0067 | ** |
NO | Year | Month | Name | Type | Distance to Watershed (km) | Monthly Rainfall at Jimani Station |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1979 | Jul | CLAUDETTE | Tropical Storm | 18.8 | 123.4 |
2 | 1979 | Sep | DAVID | Category 1 Hurricane | 51.0 | 170.7 |
3 | 1998 | Sep | GEORGES | Category 3 Hurricane | 28.2 | 230 |
4 | 2005 | Oct | ALPHA | Tropical Storm | 0.0 | 257.4 |
5 | 2007 | Oct | NOEL | Tropical Storm | 48.8 | 225.8 |
6 | 2008 | Aug | FAYE | Tropical Storm | 3.7 | 214.4 |
7 | 2008 | Aug | GUSTAV | Tropical Storm | 71.5 | 214.4 |
8 | 2012 | Aug | ISAAC | Tropical Storm | 53.1 | 115.6 |
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Moknatian, M.; Piasecki, M. Lake Volume Data Analyses: A Deep Look into the Shrinking and Expansion Patterns of Lakes Azuei and Enriquillo, Hispaniola. Hydrology 2020, 7, 1. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology7010001
Moknatian M, Piasecki M. Lake Volume Data Analyses: A Deep Look into the Shrinking and Expansion Patterns of Lakes Azuei and Enriquillo, Hispaniola. Hydrology. 2020; 7(1):1. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology7010001
Chicago/Turabian StyleMoknatian, Mahrokh, and Michael Piasecki. 2020. "Lake Volume Data Analyses: A Deep Look into the Shrinking and Expansion Patterns of Lakes Azuei and Enriquillo, Hispaniola" Hydrology 7, no. 1: 1. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology7010001