**6. Conclusions**

The discussed issue in the article concerns the problem of forecasting vehicle occupation in public transport. The analysed issue is particularly important due to the growing problems of congestion and the negative impact of road transport in cities. The methodology presented in the paper and the obtained results can significantly contribute to the development of solutions and systems for a better managemen<sup>t</sup> as well as a cost and energy consumption optimisation in the public transport system. Current and forecasted information related to bus occupancy, when used correctly in the travel information system, such as ATIS, may have a positive impact on the development of urban mobility patterns by encouraging the use of public transport. In this way, it is possible to support the implementation of a sustainable development postulate in the context of transport.

The transportation system, especially public transport, is an artificial, complex, dynamic and uncertain system. These features influence the internal transport process, which is why proper managemen<sup>t</sup> is challenging to implement. Therefore, it seems appropriate to use discrete Markov processes to determine the expected occupancy level of vehicles at subsequent departures from a given stop on the line. The presented calculation shows that the thesis is correct and creates an incentive for more in-depth investigations.

**Author Contributions:** conceptualization, P.W. and D.K.; methodology, P.W. and D.K.; formal analysis, P.W.; investigation, A.S.; resources, J.H.A.; data curation, D.K.; writing—original draft preparation D.K.; writing—review and editing, P.W., D.K., A.S. and J.H.A.; supervision, D.K.

**Funding:** This research received no external funding.

**Conflicts of Interest:** The authors declare no conflict of interest.
