*3.4. Yield Predictions*

The results of the regression analysis and Pearson's correlation test showed that the precipitation in March was the most effective factor for the dryland winter wheat yield of the region (Table 9). The prediction results indicated that the yield would noticeably reduce to 1176, 984, and 890 kg ha−<sup>1</sup> in the periods 2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099, respectively (Table 10). The reduction percentage

in the above-mentioned periods is predicted to be −22, −34, and −41%, respectively. These reductions in the yield are consistent with the reductions in the mean precipitation in March during the three prospective periods (Figure 4). The reduction in the yield in the periods 2040–2069 and 2070–2099 will be more severe than that of the period 2010–2039, which is in line with a more severe reduction in the precipitation in March than in the former periods.

**Table 9.** Regression and correlation results of the yield and precipitation data.


**\*:** significant at *p* < 0.05 where Y is dryland winter wheat yield; X is the precipitation in March; and the constant numbers are Y-intercepts.

**Table 10.** Results of the dryland winter wheat yield predictions for the periods 2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099.


**Figure 4.** Relationship between the yield reduction and rcp2.6-induced precipitation of March in the three future periods.
