**The Nexus of Weather Extremes to Agriculture Production Indexes and the Future Risk in Ghana**

#### **Abdul-Aziz Ibn Musah \*, Jianguo Du, Thomas Bilaliib Udimal and Mohammed Abubakari Sadick**

School of Management, Jiangsu University, 301 Xuefu Road, Zhenjiang 212013, Jiangsu, China; jgdu2005@163.com (J.D.); tbudimal2007@yahoo.com (T.B.U.); oluzerpublications@yahoo.com (M.A.S.) **\*** Correspondence: dooziizu@gmail.com; Tel.: +86-18605242822

Received: 18 September 2018; Accepted: 25 October 2018; Published: 31 October 2018

**Abstract:** The agricultural industry employs a large workforce in Ghana and remains the primary source of food security and income. The consequences of extreme weather in this sector can be catastrophic. A consistent picture of meteorological risk and adaptation patterns can lead to useful information, which can help local farmers make informed decisions to advance their livelihoods. We modelled historical data using extreme value theory and structural equation modelling. Subsequently, we studied extreme weather variability and its relationship to composite indicators of agricultural production and the long-term trend of weather risk. Minimum and maximum annual temperatures have negligible heterogeneity in their trends, while the annual maximum rainfall is homogenous in trend. Severe rainfall affects cereals and cocoa production, resulting in reduced yields. Cereals and cocoa grow well when there is even distribution of rainfall. The return levels for the next 20–100 years are gradually increasing with the long-term prediction of extreme weather. Also, heavy rains affect cereals and cocoa production negatively. All indicators of agriculture had a positive relationship with maximum extreme weather.

**Keywords:** extreme weather; agriculture production; return level; extreme value theory; weather; risk
