**1. Introduction**

Climate change has emerged as one of the development challenges of the 21st century [1,2]. There is high confidence and agreemen<sup>t</sup> among the global scientific community that climate change poses a serious threat to current and future sustainable development. According to the forecasts, climate change-induced impacts will continue to a ffect people, even if anthropogenic greenhouse gasses emissions stop today [3]. Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where smallholder farmers dominate agriculture [4], is one of the global hotspots for climate change-induced impacts [5]. In SSA, agriculture directly employs about 175 million people who cultivate degraded lands where there is no reliable supply of water for irrigation [6]. These smallholder farmers in SSA are among the most vulnerable groups to climate change and variability-induced impacts due to dependency on RF, limited use of irrigation, and weak adaptive capacity. Furthermore, limited human and material capacity, poor infrastructure, fragile environments, political instability, and marginalization contributed to the vulnerability in this region [7–10]. The case is not di fferent in Ethiopia where smallholder farmers, who produce 90% of the total agricultural yield and own 95% of the total cultivated land [11], su ffer from di fferent climate change induced-impacts. Most of these subsistent farmers practice rain-fed

traditional farming, use little modern agricultural inputs, and have little surplus to sell in local markets. They are not resilient enough to cope with climate change-induced recurrent shocks and long-term impacts [12–14]. Although climate change-induced impacts have been recurrent in Ethiopia and in the study area, little is known about the factors that a ffect the likelihood of exposure to such impacts in Ethiopia and SSA. Thus, by using mixed research strategy, this study presents the types and determinants of climate change induced-impacts on smallholder rural farmers in drought-prone lowland context.

Climate change induced-impacts refers to effects on natural and human systems due to gradual changes in climate, variations in weather and climatic elements from the average, and that of the impacts of climatic extremes. As IPCC report, climate change-induced impacts refer to impacts on human lives, livelihoods, culture, economies, ecosystems, and material resources due to hazardous climatic events over a period of time [3]. Climate change-induced impacts also include consequences and outcomes of the direct impacts including droughts, hunger, famine, loss of life and property, and sea level rise which can be potential or residual (ibid). The former includes impacts that occur due to a projected change in climate without adaptation. The latter refers to the impacts with adaptation [15]. Therefore, in this research, climate change-induced impacts include the immediate effects as well as outcomes and consequences of the immediate effects on human and natural systems. As global warming increases the likelihood of experiencing severe, persistent, and irreversible impacts on natural and human systems will be stronger [3,16]. Greenhouse gas emissions have adverse effects on biodiversity, ecosystem services, and economic development, which are causing risks for livelihoods and human security [17,18]. The 4th IPCC report argues that ... *by 2020, between 75 million and 250 million people are projected to be exposed to increased water stress due to climate change*[15] (p13). Agricultural crop yield in some African countries could be reduced by 50% by 2020 and this can endanger the existence of many smallholder rural farmers.

Climate change-induced impacts have hampered poverty reduction and sustainable development in the Global South [5,19,20]. This is because most climate-related impacts a ffect the poor, who are struggling to come out of poverty [21]. Furthermore, livelihood strategies and housing conditions of the poor are more vulnerable to climate change and variability-induced impacts [22,23]. The poor usually have houses made of mud, bamboo, straw, and other inexpensive materials that are the most vulnerable to extreme weather events. The poor also cannot buy climate insurance against climate-related risks. Besides the direct impacts on agriculture-related livelihoods, climate change is also indirectly a ffecting the health and well-being of the poor through its e ffect on human and livestock health [24,25]. For example, because of increasing surface temperature, malaria is expected to migrate to higher altitudes and cause further health problems, which a ffect the poor's income and productivity. According to the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates, global warming causes about 150,000 deaths per year [26]. RF and temperature variability also result in pests and diseases incidents that a ffect the quantity and the quality of the crop yield [27]. Besides impacts, social strains caused by increased resource scarcity may lead to greater conflict [5,28], with the poor again being the most likely victims.

Erratic RF and higher temperatures characterize the drought-prone lowlands of Sidama. The area is part of the Great East African Rift Valley (GEARV). Climate change-induced impacts such as drought, crop failure, livestock loss, flooding, and water-borne and related diseases (such as diarrhea and malaria) have been recurrent in this area. The problem worsened in 2016 despite various adaptive strategies of the households, communities, and other actors, including the government. This needed a large-scale emergency relief for about 100,000 people, which is highest in recent documented drought history of the area. Despite a few research works on climate change-induced impacts on smallholder farmers, there is a gap in the literature about factors that control the likelihood of exposure to the impacts. Therefore, the main goal of this study is to identify factors that determine the likelihood of exposure to climate-induced impacts on smallholder rural farmers. Identifying such determinants

is important for policy-makers, practitioners, and smallholder farmers to identify leverage points to manage the imminent impacts of climate change in the country and beyond.

#### **2. Climate Change-Induced Impacts in Ethiopia**

While agriculture is the backbone of Ethiopia's economy, it is RF dependent and dominated by smallholder subsistent farmers. About 80% of the Ethiopian population lives in rural areas making drought-prone agriculture as the primary means of livelihood. This figure is much higher than the SSA average, which stood at 63% in the year 2014 [11,29]. Furthermore, agriculture constitutes 40% of the GDP, supports 80% of the total employment, and is a source of 90% of the export in Ethiopia [11,30,31]. Nonetheless, climate change-induced impacts are challenging the roles of agriculture for the overall growth of the country [12]. In the 20th century alone, twelve extreme droughts happened in Ethiopia that hampered the economic development of the country. The drought incidents claimed the lives of hundreds of thousands and affected the livelihoods of over 50 million people [32]. Drought incidents have been increasing in recent decades in the country. Eight major droughts had occurred in the last three decades in Ethiopia: 1984/85 1987/88 1991 1994 1997 2002/03 2010/11, and in 2015/16 [32,33].

Previous studies revealed that climate change and variability had exerted significant impacts on agriculture and the overall economic growth in Ethiopia [32,34,35]. Specifically, climate change-induced impacts have hampered the country's economic growth and effort to move out of poverty. For instance, it was reported that from 1991–2010, the growth estimates were reduced by 2–9% because of climate change-induced impacts [30]. Under the worst-case scenarios, the economic impacts of climate change may reduce Ethiopia's GDP by up to 8% [36]. On the other hand, another study on climate change impact on agriculture and related sectors revealed a 10% GDP drop from the target [37]. The same study revealed a widening income inequality that could reach up to 20% due to the effect of climate change. In general, with higher vulnerability, and lesser resilience to climate change-induced impacts, the country is projected to experience a 6% decline in total agricultural output in the coming years [38].

Besides the impacts on the national economy, climate change-induced impacts have been affecting health and livelihood status of smallholder farmers in Ethiopia. Some of these impacts include climate-related epidemics, crop failure, flooding, livestock mortality, shortage of water and pasture, migration, and food aid dependency [2,39,40]. Unsustainable adaptation strategies of the farmers, such as selling assets and charcoal production, have resulted in the degradation of assets, environment degradation, and biodiversity losses. Climate change-induced food and water shortages affect the health, educational, and economic status of the households [8]. For instance, during drought events, children are forced to drop out of the school to participate in such household activities as collecting water and fuel-wood from long distances. Malaria affects labor availability at the household level and increases the health expenses of the family.

## **3. Data and Methods**
