Rainfall Decreases (Drought)

Inadequate rainfall leads to greater drought frequency and intensity, while increased evaporation increases the chance of complete crop failure [96,97]. Drought is the most widespread and damaging of all environmental stresses [35,98]. In South and Southeast Asia, including some states of India, severe drought affects rain-fed rice and yield, with losses as high as 40% and the total area affected measuring 23 million hectares, amounting to \$800 million [99]. Bangladesh experienced severe drought in different years and locations in the districts of the northwestern border [100]. Erratic rainfall and drought reduce crop production by 30% and 40%, respectively [84]. *Boro* rice production will decrease due to rainfall in winter [92]. This study noted that, with 5-mm and 10-mm rainfall reductions in the future, *boro* rice will decrease by a maximum of 16.6% and 24.2%, respectively, in the winter. Drought caused 25% to 30% crop reduction in the northwestern part of Bangladesh based on from 2008 [101]. Due to the high rainfall variability and dryness, the northwestern region is the most drought-prone area in Bangladesh [102,103]. Rajshahi, Chapai-Nawabganj, Naogaon, Natore, Bogra, Joypurhat, Dinajpur and Kustia districts are drought prone areas in Bangladesh because of their moisture-retention capacity and infiltration rate characteristics [104].

According to the previous projection of drought, we assume that, if rainfall decreases and drought occur in the future, the overall rice production will decrease by approximately 20% of the sample farmers in northwestern districts of Bangladesh. By using log-normal distribution, we project the poverty rate due to income reduction by yield loss because of drought.

Table 13 shows the results of the poverty rate (Figure 13) after income changes due to assumed yield losses of overall rice by drought in the northwestern region in Bangladesh, while the Dinajpur (10.175% poverty increase), Rajshahi (5.670% poverty increase) and Naogaon (11.245% poverty increase) districts are most vulnerable to poverty. Dependency on agriculture with high variability of annual rainfall has made the northwestern regions highly susceptible to droughts and high poverty rates, compared to other parts of the country. Conservation of water could play an important role in reducing the impact of drought and alleviating poverty in this area [103].


**Table 13.** Poverty rate in drought-prone districts on rainfall decrease.

BG = Bogra, CN = Chapai-Nawabganj, DI = Dinajpur, KU = Kustia, NG = Naogaon NT = Natore, RJ = Rajshahi and JT = Joypurhatr.

**Figure 13.** Changing poverty rates caused by drought in northwestern regions.
