*Appendix A.1 Analysis of Pakistan's Agricultural Trade*

Despite being an agricultural economy, Pakistan has not only been exporting some agricultural commodities, but it has also been importing significant quantities of some other agricultural commodities. A country's dependence (or independence) on foreign-produced commodities can be gauged by the self-sufficiency ratio (SSR = Production/(Production + Net import) based on data from Reference [39]). Pakistan's average SSR over the period 1990–2013 is shown in Figure A1.

We can observe two extremes in the SSR for Pakistan, that is, on the one hand, Pakistan has been producing almost double the amount of rice it needed for domestic consumption (SSR = 187%), implying that Pakistan exported 47% of its domestically produced rice to other countries over this period. On the other hand, Pakistan's SSR in palm oil (used as edible oil) and tea—the two largest traditional food imports of Pakistan—has been almost zero, indicating that Pakistan has been entirely dependent on other countries for its domestic needs of palm oil and tea. The less than 100% SSR values of other cereals (84%), oilseed crops (89%), wheat (96%) and cotton (96%) show that Pakistan has been importing some amounts of these commodities over the years. The rest of the commodities show relatively high (close to or more than 100%) SSR over the period.

In value terms, Pakistan's exports have been dominated by rice, which—with an average yearly export of 1645 million US\$- accounted for over 64% of the total export value of these commodities during 2003–2016 (Figure A2, yellow columns). Fruits (251 million US\$), cotton (148 million US\$), vegetables (135 million US\$) and sugar (108 million US\$) have been other major commodities recording sizable export for Pakistan during this period. The five commodities mentioned above were responsible for about 90% share in the total export value of the studied commodities.

**Figure A1.** Average self-sufficiency ratios (SSR) of agricultural commodities for Pakistan, 1990–2013. Source: Authors' calculations based on data from Reference [39].

In terms of import value, palm oil takes the lead with an average value of 1434 million US\$ (about 37% share) among these agricultural commodities during 2003–2016. Cotton (627 million US\$), oilseed crops (544 million US\$), vegetables (438 million US\$) and tea (293 million US\$) also have significant shares in the total import value of the agricultural commodities by Pakistan during the same period. Notice that cotton, vegetables and sugar have substantial shares in both total import and total export values suggesting that over the years the production of these crops in Pakistan have experienced significant ups and downs such that during some years Pakistan exported these crops while it imported the same crops during other years.

Additionally, some quality requirements have also impacted the changing trade situation of some corps, especially in the case of cotton, where Pakistan had to import high-quality cotton from other countries to produce exportable textile goods. It is also noteworthy that although Pakistan's domestic tea production is negligible (there is some domestic production; however, this is close to zero as compared to the total net-import) (Figure A1), the value share of tea import in total imports of the agricultural commodities has been around 8% (Figure A2).

Our future projections under business as usual (BAU) scenarios show that Pakistan will continue to export vast quantities of rice to other countries by 2030, such that its rice exports will increase by 3.3 times from the 2016 level. The exports of sugar and cattle will also increase considerably in percentage terms. However, the corresponding absolute changes will be quite small, bearing little effect on VW exports from Pakistan. At the same time, the exports of some agricultural commodities will be reduced. Notably, both cotton and fruits have relatively high exports in 2016, while their respective exports will drop by 86% and 48% by 2030. In terms of export partners, China will gain increased importance as the export destination, especially for the export of rice, fruits, vegetables and livestock products.

Pakistan's imports of palm oil, tea and cotton will increase considerably by 192%, 31% and 363% during 2016–2030. Palm oil and tea are the most significant traditional agricultural imports by Pakistan. However, our projections show that under the BAU scenario, Pakistan will turn from a net exporter of cotton to a net importer during the coming decade. In 2030, Pakistan's import sources will remain almost the same as they were in 2016.

**Figure A2.** Average trade value of agricultural commodities, 2003–2016. Source: Authors' calculations based on data from Reference [40].
