*Article* **Modelling Runo**ff **and Sediment Loads in a Developing Coastal Watershed of the US-Mexico Border**

**Napoleon Gudino-Elizondo 1,2,3,\*, Trent W. Biggs 2, Ronald L. Bingner 4, Eddy J. Langendoen 4, Thomas Kretzschmar 3, Encarnación V. Taguas 5, Kristine T. Taniguchi-Quan 6, Douglas Liden <sup>7</sup> and Yongping Yuan <sup>8</sup>**


Received: 22 January 2019; Accepted: 22 April 2019; Published: 16 May 2019

**Abstract:** Urbanization can increase sheet, rill, gully, and channel erosion. We quantified the sediment budget of the Los Laureles Canyon watershed (LLCW), which is a mixed rural-urbanizing catchment in Northwestern Mexico, using the AnnAGNPS model and field measurements of channel geometry. The model was calibrated with five years of observed runoff and sediment loads and used to evaluate sediment reduction under a mitigation scenario involving paving roads in hotspots of erosion. Calibrated runoff and sediment load had a mean-percent-bias of 28.4 and − 8.1, and root-mean-square errors of 85% and 41% of the mean, respectively. Suspended sediment concentration (SSC) collected at different locations during one storm-event correlated with modeled SSC at those locations, which suggests that the model represented spatial variation in sediment production. Simulated gully erosion represents 16%–37% of hillslope sediment production, and 50% of the hillslope sediment load is produced by only 23% of the watershed area. The model identifies priority locations for sediment control measures, and can be used to identify tradeoffs between sediment control and runoff production. Paving roads in priority areas would reduce total sediment yield by 30%, but may increase peak discharge moderately (1.6%–21%) at the outlet.

**Keywords:** soil erosion; rainfall-runoff; sediment yield; AnnAGNPS model; urbanization; scenario analysis
