**Qing Li 1,\* and Steven Y. Liang 1,2**


Received: 22 May 2018; Accepted: 8 June 2018; Published: 12 June 2018

**Abstract:** The ability to accurately track the degradation trajectories of rotating machinery components is arguably one of the challenging problems in prognostics and health managemen<sup>t</sup> (PHM). In this paper, an intelligent prediction approach based on asymmetric penalty sparse decomposition (APSD) algorithm combined with wavelet neural network (WNN) and autoregressive moving average-recursive least squares algorithm (ARMA-RLS) is proposed for degradation prognostics of rotating machinery, taking the accelerated life test of rolling bearings as an example. Specifically, the health indicators time series (e.g., peak-to-peak value and Kurtosis) is firstly decomposed into low frequency component (LFC) and high frequency component (HFC) using the APSD algorithm; meanwhile, the resulting non-convex regularization problem can be efficiently solved using the majorization-minimization (MM) method. In particular, the HFC part corresponds to the stable change around the zero line of health indicators which most extensively occurs; in contrast, the LFC part is essentially related to the evolutionary trend of health indicators. Furthermore, the nonparametric-based method, i.e., WNN, and parametric-based method, i.e., ARMA-RLS, are respectively introduced to predict the LFC and HFC that focus on abrupt degradation regions (e.g., last 100 points). Lastly, the final predicted data could be correspondingly obtained by integrating the predicted LFC and predicted HFC. The proposed methodology is tested using degradation health indicator time series from four rolling bearings. The proposed approach performed favorably when compared to some state-of-the-art benchmarks such as WNN and largest Lyapunov (LLyap) methods.

**Keywords:** degradation trajectories prognostic; asymmetric penalty sparse decomposition (APSD); rolling bearings; wavelet neural network (WNN); recursive least squares (RLS); health indicators
