3.4.2. +25% Overnight Fuel Cost

At a 25% increase in overnight diesel and coal cost, all systems have large Li-ion BESS installation sizes (Figure 18) preferring RE-favored generation due to prohibitive diesel costs. Figure 19 also shows minimal uncertainty in optimum storage sizes, confirming that RE-favored generation is favored. Generation costs have increased (Figure 20) especially in MVC systems, wherein diesel is used for energy generation, which in turn powers the MVC plant. This is less efficient that MED and MSF, which use the fuel directly.

**Figure 17.** Distribution of optimum LCOE and LCOW on Camasusu Island (**top**) and Lubang Island (**bottom**) at −25% overnight fuel price. There is minimal uncertainty for these metrics.

**Figure 18.** Distribution of optimum sizes of energy components on Camasusu Island (**top**) and Lubang Island (**bottom**) at +25% overnight fuel price.

**Figure 19.** Distribution of optimum sizes of water storage and desalination unit on Camasusu Island (**top**) and Lubang Island (**bottom**) at +25% overnight fuel price. There is minimal uncertainty in optimum sizes in all systems on both islands.

**Figure 20.** Distribution of optimum LCOE and LCOW for Camasusu Island (**top**) and Lubang Island (**bottom**) at +25% overnight fuel price. There is minimal uncertainty for these metrics.
