**Modeling Major Rural Land-Use Changes Using the GIS-Based Cellular Automata Metronamica Model: The Case of Andalusia (Southern Spain)**

**Rafael M. Navarro Cerrillo 1, Guillermo Palacios Rodríguez 1,\*, Inmaculada Clavero Rumbao 1, Miguel Ángel Lara 1, Francisco Javier Bonet <sup>2</sup> and Francisco-Javier Mesas-Carrascosa <sup>3</sup>**


Received: 19 June 2020; Accepted: 17 July 2020; Published: 20 July 2020

**Abstract:** The effective and efficient planning of rural land-use changes and their impact on the environment is critical for land-use managers. Many land-use growth models have been proposed for forecasting growth patterns in the last few years. In this work; a cellular automata (CA)-based land-use model (Metronamica) was tested to simulate (1999–2007) and predict (2007–2035) land-use dynamics and land-use changes in Andalucía (Spain). The model was calibrated using temporal changes in land-use covers and was evaluated by the Kappa index. GIS-based maps were generated to study major rural land-use changes (agriculture and forests). The change matrix for 1999–2007 showed an overall area change of 674971 ha. The dominant land uses in 2007 were shrubs (30.7%), woody crops on dry land (17.3%), and herbaceous crops on dry land (12.7%). The comparison between the reference and the simulated land-use maps of 2007 showed a Kappa index of 0.91. The land-cover map for the projected PRELUDE scenarios provided the land-cover characteristics of 2035 in Andalusia; developed within the Metronamica model scenarios (Great Escape; Evolved Society; Clustered Network; Lettuce Surprise U; and Big Crisis). The greatest differences were found between Great Escape and Clustered Network and Lettuce Surprise U. The observed trend (1999–2007–2035) showed the greatest similarity with the Big Crisis scenario. Land-use projections facilitate the understanding of the future dynamics of land-use change in rural areas; and hence the development of more appropriate plans and policies

**Keywords:** future scenarios; prelude; dynamic of land use; Spatial Decision Support System, CORINE Land Cover

## **1. Introduction**

Continuous land-use changes, both urban and rural, are caused mainly by anthropogenic activities [1]. The use of tools, such as models of land-use change, supports the analysis of the causes and consequences of such changes in order to understand the functioning of the land-use system and to support land-use planning and policy [2]. Over the past century, changes in demographic development, urbanization, and industrialization have constantly induced land use and land cover (LULC) changes in many regions around the world, producing new biophysical and socio-economic conditions [3]. Therefore, LULC changes are associated with socioeconomic factors, changes in industrial development,

agricultural production conversion [4,5], immigration [6,7], protected area status [8], and climate change [9]. As a result of these drivers, the current land-use patterns are a consequence of a historical series of previous and incremental land-use changes, which makes the present land-use pattern highly path-dependent [10]. Many researchers have focused on understanding the factors that lead to these transitions [11,12]. However, more research is needed to explain land-use changes at different spatial and temporal scales [13].

Policy and decision makers demand land-use change scenarios to enable them to develop sustainable strategies that anticipate future trends [14]. Over recent decades, abundant research has been conducted on the spatial modeling of land use, based on the improved accessibility of spatial information, increased computational capacities, and the demand for more accurate planning tools for decision support [15–18]. Several spatially explicit approaches for modeling land use have been proposed [19,20]. Among them, cellular automata (CA) models are have been frequently used for modeling land-use change due to their ability to simulate dynamic spatial processes [21,22], creating complex patterns [23]. CA models include integrated CA models such as the Research Institute for Knowledge Systems (RIKS) model [24], fuzzy CA model [25], artificial neural networks CA model [26], and multi-CA model [27]. More recently, CA land-use models have been generalized to support land-use planning and policy analysis [22,28] as well as to predict future changes and the impacts of economic, development, and climate-change scenarios [29].

The CA models of land-use dynamics are generated by a set of cell states, neighborhoods, and transition rules and time [30]. The cell state can be made to represent any attribute of the rural or urban environment (e.g., land use, population density, land cover, terrain factors, or road networks) [22,31] and has been used in many land-use change studies oriented to policy and land-use decision support [14,32,33]. Metronamica is a spatial decision support system (SDSS), based on the constrained cellular automata (CCA) model [24,34], increasingly used to assist the simulation of the spatial implications of future land-use scenarios. This approach is very useful in long-term planning decisions. Metronamica has been used by public administrations and researchers for the simulation of rural areas dynamics, including agricultural and forest uses, under different change scenarios [35–39]. The susceptibility cartography obtained from this analysis is a useful tool in natural and rural planning.

Andalucía is the second largest region in Spain and has a population of over 8.5 million inhabitants. During the last two decades, it has experienced rapid economic growth, focused on urban development, tourism, and agriculture. In this context, planning of the rural environment faces many challenges in the balancing of current and future land use with sustainability and limiting environmental problems. In this study, Metronamica [34] was applied to model future trends of land-use changes in Andalusia for the period 2010–2035. There were three specific objectives: (i) to describe the major rural land-use changes at a regional scale between 1999 and 2007, (ii) to test the Metronamica land-use model, and (iii) to simulate future land-use patterns in the Prospective Environmental Analysis of Land Use Development in Europe (PRELUDE) scenarios. This study tests the applicability of this model at a regional scale regarding its ability to generate realistic results about land-use changes and to support policy makers.

#### **2. Materials and Methods**

#### *2.1. Study Area*

Andalusia is in the south of the Iberian Peninsula, in south-western Europe and extends over 87,600 km<sup>2</sup> (Figure 1). It includes three major mountain ranges running in an east to west direction, Sierra Morena and the Baetic System, consisting of the Subbaetic and Penibaetic Mountains, separated by the Intrabaetic Basin, while Lower Andalusia is in the Baetic Depression of the valley of the river Guadalquivir. A Mediterranean climate, with two rainfall peaks in spring and autumn and a dry season during summer, is the most frequent. The average annual precipitation is in the range of 300 to 2000 mm, and the mean annual temperature is 17◦C, with maximum temperatures averaging above

36◦C in summer. Topographic variations mean the climate ranges from arid (including the driest zone of the European Mediterranean) to humid. The dominant rural land uses are extensive and intensive agriculture, including non-irrigated and irrigated crops, olive orchards, and greenhouse horticulture. During the second half of the 20th century and more recent decades, progressive land abandonment has led to a significant increase in extensive rangeland and wood landscapes (e.g., shrubs and forests). Most of the natural vegetation is Mediterranean forests, mainly evergreen trees, such as Holm and cork oaks and pines, with large areas covered by Mediterranean shrub land. According to the data released by the National Statistics Institute of Spain, in Andalusia the population increased by approximately 750,000 inhabitants during the period 1999–2007, mainly due to the concentration of the rural population in some areas.

**Figure 1.** Distribution of the most representative rural land uses in Andalusia region (Southern Spain) in 2007.
