*Article* **Modeling and Forecasting End-Use Energy Consumption for Residential Buildings in Kuwait Using a Bottom-Up Approach**

**Turki Alajmi <sup>1</sup> and Patrick Phelan 2,\***


Received: 29 February 2020; Accepted: 14 April 2020; Published: 17 April 2020

**Abstract:** To meet the rapid-growing demand for electricity in Kuwait, utility planners need to be informed on the energy consumption to implement energy efficiency measures to manage sustainable load growth and avoid the high costs of increasing generation capacities. The first step of forecasting the future energy profile is to establish a baseline for Kuwait (i.e., a business-as-usual reference scenario where no energy efficiency incentives were given and the adoption of energy efficient equipment is purely market-driven). This paper presents an investigation of creating a baseline end-use energy profile until 2040 for the residential sector in Kuwait by using a bottom-up approach. The forecast consists of mainly two steps: (1) Forecasting the quantity of the residential energy-consuming equipment in the entire sector until 2040 where this paper used a stock-and-flow model that accounted for the income level, electrification, and urbanization rate to predict the quantify of the equipment over the years until 2040, and (2) calculate the unit energy consumption (*UEC*) for all equipment types using a variety of methods including EnergyPlus simulation models for cooling equipment. By combining the unit energy consumption and quantity of the equipment over the years, this paper established a baseline energy use profile for different end-use equipment for Kuwait until 2040. The results showed that the air conditioning loads accounted for 67% of residential electrical consumption and 72% of residential peak demand in Kuwait. The highest energy consuming appliances were refrigerators and freezers. Additionally, the air conditioning loads are expected to rise in the future, with an average annual growth rate of 2.9%, whereas the lighting and water heating loads are expected to rise at a much lower rate.

**Keywords:** energymodeling; bottom-upmodels; building archetype simulation; unit energy consumption; end-use forecasting; diffusion rate
