*7.1. Baseline Scenario (BLS)*

Table 10 shows the evolution in terms of AAGR of the stock by vehicle category in the BLS in the period 2010–2035 and its comparison with the corresponding historical AAGR in the period 1990–2010.

**Table 10.** Evolution of the Mexican vehicle fleet structure in the BLS and its comparison with the historical evolution.


 Source: [25].

Figure 2 shows results of the Mexican vehicle fleet projection in the BLS, which triples by year 2035, reaching 67.3 million vehicles (MVEH): Light trucks go from 6.8 MVEH in 2010 to 18.3 MVEH, compact cars go from 5.5 to 17.4 MVEH, SUVs go from 1.9 to 11.9 MVEH, subcompacts go from 4.1 to 9.9 MVEH, and luxury cars go from 1.9 to 9.8 MVEH. Passenger buses increase from 0.2 to 2.6 MVEH, and heavy trucks go from 0.3 to 3.6 MVEH.

**Figure 2.** Evolution of the Mexican vehicle fleet in the BLS.

Energy consumption (see Figure 3) continues with the predominance of gasoline and diesel, which represent 65% and 27%, respectively, of total energy consumption in this sector, and the energy requirements total 5879 PJ in 2035, representing a 253% increase when compared to 2010.

**Figure 3.** Energy consumption by energy carrier in the BLS.

GHG emissions (see Figure 4) will reach a total 415.1 MtCO2e by 2035, an increase of 259% compared to 2010, of which 63% and 28% come from gasoline and diesel, respectively.

**Figure 4.** GHG emissions by energy carrier in the BLS.
