*Article* **Evolution of Virtual Water Transfers in China's Provincial Grids and Its Driving Analysis**

#### **Yiyi Zhang, Shengren Hou, Jiefeng Liu \*, Hanbo Zheng, Jiaqi Wang and Chaohai Zhang**

Guangxi Key Laboratory of Power System Optimization and Energy Technology, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004, Guangxi, China; yiyizhang@gxu.edu.cn (Y.Z.); 15670131688@163.com (S.H.); hanbozheng@163.com (H.Z.); wangjiaqijiaqi@gmail.com (J.W.); zch852@126.com (C.Z.) **\*** Correspondence: liujiefeng2018@gxu.edu.cn; Tel.: +86-199-6812-0257

Received: 19 November 2019; Accepted: 16 December 2019; Published: 9 January 2020

**Abstract:** In China, electricity transmission has increased rapidly over the past decades, and a large amount of virtual water is delivered from power generation provinces to load hubs. Understanding the evolution of the virtual water network embodied in electricity transmission is vital for mitigating water scarcity. However, previous studies mainly calculated the virtual water transferred in short periods in low-spatial resolution and failed to reveal driving forces of the evolution of virtual water. To solve this problem, we investigated the historical evolution of the virtual water network and virtual scarce water network embodied in interprovincial electricity transmission between 2005 and 2014. The driving forces of the evolution of virtual (scarce) water networks were analyzed at both national level and provincial level. The results show that the overall virtual water transmission and virtual scarce water transmission increased by five times, and the direction was mainly from southwest and northwest provinces to eastern provinces. Sichuan, Yunnan, and Guizhou played an increasingly important role in virtual water exporting, and northwestern provinces had dominated the virtual scarce water exporting in the decade. At the national level, the increase of virtual water is mainly driven by the change of power generation mix and power transmission. At the provincial level, the increase of virtual water transmission in the largest virtual water exporter (Sichuan) is driven by the power generation mix and the power transmission, between 2005 and 2010, and 2010 and 2014, respectively. Considering the expanding of electricity transmission, the development of hydropower in the southwestern provinces and other renewable energies (solar and wind) in the northeastern provinces would overall mitigate the water scarcity in China.

**Keywords:** virtual water network; inter-provincial electricity transmission; structural decomposition analysis; electricity-water nexus
