*Article* **Evaluating the E** ff**ectiveness of Climate Change Adaptations in the World's Largest Mangrove Ecosystem**

#### **Pramod K. Singh 1,\*, Konstantinos Papageorgiou 2, Harpalsinh Chudasama 1 and Elpiniki I. Papageorgiou 3**


Received: 22 September 2019; Accepted: 20 November 2019; Published: 25 November 2019

**Abstract:** The Sundarbans is the world's largest coastal river delta and the largest uninterrupted mangrove ecosystem. A complex socio-ecological setting, coupled with disproportionately high climate-change exposure and severe ecological and social vulnerabilities, has turned it into a climate hotspot requiring well-designed adaptation interventions. We have used the fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM)-based approach to elicit and integrate stakeholders' perceptions regarding current climate forcing, consequent impacts, and e fficacy of the existing adaptation measures. We have also undertaken climate modelling to ascertain long-term future trends of climate forcing. FCM-based simulations reveal that while existing adaptation practices provide resilience to an extent, they are grossly inadequate in the context of providing future resilience. Even well-planned adaptations may not be entirely transformative in such a fragile ecosystem. It was through FCM-based simulations that we realised that a coastal river delta in a developing nation merits special attention for climate-resilient adaptation planning and execution. Measures that are likely to enhance adaptive capabilities of the local communities include those involving gender-responsive and adaptive governance, human resource capacity building, commitments of global communities for adaptation financing, education and awareness programmes, and embedding indigenous and local knowledge into decision making.

**Keywords:** climate change adaptation; transformative adaptation; limits to adaptation; adaptation barrier; fuzzy cognitive maps; resilience; sustainability; vulnerability; Sundarbans
