**3. Results**

#### *3.1. Projections of Climate Change in the Study Area*

Climate vulnerability refers to a system's susceptibility to change as a consequence of variation in climatic parameters. We assessed climate vulnerability, with the help of climate modelling, for key climatic parameters including temperature, precipitation, and accumulated precipitation on consecutive rainy days in the study area (Table 2).


**Table 2.** Annual mean temperature and precipitation profile of the study area.

\* Reference climate (CRUTS32: 1981–2010); \*\* E-Mean: Ensemble mean-ESM2M of all five models (CRUTS32, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and NorESM1-M) are taken into consideration to avoid extreme variations in the result.

Projections for the 2050s (2041–2070) and the 2080s (2071–2100) with regard to RCPs 2.6 and 8.5 show a rise from the reference climate (1981–2010) in terms of annual mean temperature, annual mean precipitation, and accumulated precipitation on consecutive rainy days in the region. According to the results, there is a definite rise in temperature. The projected increase is 1.1 to 2.4 ◦C in the 2050s and 1.1 to 4.0 ◦C in the 2080s as relevant to the RCPs 2.6 and 8.5, in that order. The quantum of precipitation evinces a rise as well. The projected increase is 88 to 128 mm in the 2050s and 128 to 168 mm in the 2080s pertinent to the RCPs 2.6 and 8.5, in that order. There is a rise in accumulated precipitation on consecutive rainy days exceeding 30 mm. The projected increase is 210 to 257 mm in the 2050s and 254 to 258 mm in the 2080s relevant to the RCPs 2.6 and 8.5, in that order. Continuous precipitation on consecutive rainy days exceeding 30 mm is considered a heavy precipitation incident and is likely to cause flooding.

#### *3.2. Climate-Related Impacts as Perceived by the Communities*

Community observations relevant to climate change mirror historical trends and projections regarding climate change in the context of climatic parameters mentioned in the previous section. The communities perceived that manifestations of climate variability and change, along with extreme climatic events, have impacted land and water resources, fisheries, agriculture and fodder, forests, human health, and livestock productivity. All this has caused an inexorable decline in the livelihoods and financial reserves of the communities. The groundwater level has plummeted in the region owing to the increased precipitation variability. It has reduced the productivity of agriculture and horticulture crops predominantly. The resultant seawater intrusion has degraded the quality of several freshwater bodies adversely impacting their aquaculture. Rising sea-levels, not to mention cyclones and storm surges, are responsible for saline water ingress causing underground freshwater aquifers and surface water reserves to pollute. Seawater intrusion has also led to soil salinity. Seawater intrusion, coupled with rising temperatures and consequent higher evaporation rates, causes increased salt concentration in surface water bodies. Seawater intrusion is a prominent issue in the region as it primarily impacts agriculture and fish production. It has forced many families to flee from places where they have been old residents. Degrading water quality has adversely a ffected the productivity of aquaculture, pisciculture, agriculture, and horticulture, all of which are critical to community livelihood. The communities a ffirm a greater extent of the negative impact on fisheries and agriculture stimulated by rising temperatures, precipitation variability, and climatic extremes. These variabilities and changes in climate have caused pest invasion incidences to rise, leading to considerable loss of agricultural produce. Rising temperatures have led to increasing occurrences of disease within the fish population, depressing fish production thereby. Increasing temperatures, precipitation variability, and increasing water and soil salinity are also responsible for lowering fodder availability, which in turn, has diminished livestock health and productivity. The communities also perceived declining water quality as being responsible for the diminished availability of drinking water, leading to sanitation-related problems causing the deterioration of human health. The proliferation of mosquitoes, owing to increased temperatures, has fomented malarial outbreak in the region. Owing to rising temperatures, rainfall variability, and anthropogenic interference, mangrove forests have degraded, ruining the fragile ecosystem of the Sundarbans and its unique biodiversity. This ultimately causes soil erosion, loss of infrastructure, and overall environmental degradation. Impacts on agriculture, fishery, and livestock production act as significant contributors to declining incomes and increasing the economic poverty of the communities. This not only a ffects the quality of life of the stakeholders but also decreases opportunities for education for their children.

#### *3.3. Climate Change Adaptations in the Area*

The community also informed about several adaptation practices implemented in the study area in order to curtail the impacts of climate change. WWF-India implements the Climate Adaptation Programme. The state governmen<sup>t</sup> has facilitated the construction of earthen embankments and

dykes along the coasts in order to check seawater intrusion. These embankments have been built to reduce the impact of tidal surges while reducing soil erosion to some extent. Several sections along embankments and dykes have been stabilised by mangrove plantations in order to check seawater intrusion, soil erosion, loss of critical infrastructure, and reduce environmental degradation. The state governmen<sup>t</sup> has also facilitated the digging of hand pumps and tube wells to ensure freshwater access. Furthermore, healthcare facilities are being provided and vaccination drives conducted in order to improve human and livestock health. The Sundarbans Development Board, in partnership with the state government, has initiated several a fforestation measures in order to restore the green cover of the region and to conserve the fragile ecosystem of the Sundarbans. The Greening India Programme—implemented by the Tagore Society for Rural Development (TSRD)—engages local communities for mangrove plantation drives through social forestry in a bid to protect the islands from natural calamities. Alongside a fforestation activities, TSRD has also implemented a Disaster Management Programme. TSRD has taken the initiative to spread awareness about the importance of maintaining the soil's natural fertility by promoting organic fertilisers and vermicompost. TSRD has been imparting training to communities regarding alternative livelihood options including handicrafts, poultry, duckery, and goatery.

Adaptation measures involving intensifying sustainable agriculture and aquaculture practices such as crop diversification, the introduction of salt-tolerant crops, and traditional techniques of agriculture and fishery are meant to improve soil fertility and production from agriculture and fisheries. Pest control measures have been undertaken to combat pest invasion while increasing agricultural production in the long term. Diversification of livelihoods is another coping strategy adopted by communities. Since traditional natural resource-based livelihoods are unable to sustain the existing population in the Sundarbans of late, many community members are engaged with the tourism sector providing various services to tourists.

The communities acknowledged that earthen embankments and dykes along with mangrove plantations had reduced seawater intrusion, soil erosion, loss of critical infrastructure, and environmental degradation to a certain extent. Planting fruit-bearing and medicinal trees along the coastline have also helped increase the incomes of some households. Such measures have reduced soil erosion and helped improve water and land resources; it has also increased agriculture and fish production and, consequently, fodder availability. Better managemen<sup>t</sup> of water resources in the form of rainwater harvesting, pond construction, and farm bunding has also helped to increase the availability of freshwater and productivity of agriculture and fisheries while hand pumps and tube wells have helped to reduce the drudgery of women. A combination of improved agricultural inputs with the introduction of climate-resilient agricultural and piscicultural practices coupled with the re-introduction of indigenous salt-tolerant rice varieties and fish species have helped communities diversify their livelihoods while coping with increased water and soil salinity. However, the communities perceived that these adaptation practices were relatively meagre in relation to curbing the current risks involved in climate change. They also believed, notwithstanding the current adaptation practices, the risk from future impacts of climate change cannot be denied. They expressed a requirement for more concerted efforts towards developing climate resilience.

Figure 1 illustrates the condensed social cognitive map showing the perception of communities regarding climate-related impacts and adaptations.

#### *3.4. FCM-Based Simulations*

The baseline simulates a situation through the existing FCM model in which both 'climate variability and change' and 'climatic extremes' are activated. It illustrates an increase in sea-level rise, seawater intrusion, pest invasion, environmental degradation, loss of infrastructure, and economic poverty. It also suggests a reduction in soil fertility, water resources, agriculture, livestock productivity, and the health and quality of life (Table 3).

After having conducted simulations of all the different scenarios (scenarios 1 to 5, as discussed in Section 2.3), we tabulated the outcome and compared the deviation of each concept against the steady-state of the baseline, as shown in Table 3. Exploring the dynamic change of concepts' values between the baseline steady-state and scenario outcomes enabled a quantitative interpretation of the impact of the key concepts on the system.

The first scenario highlights the effects of 'dykes and embankments'. This scenario does not give relief from sea-level rise while the loss of infrastructure, seawater intrusion, pest invasion, environmental degradation, and economic poverty continue to increase. The second scenario highlights the effects of 'water resource management'. This scenario does not show much deviation from the baseline; it illustrates a substantial increase in sea-level rise, seawater intrusion, pest invasion, environmental degradation, loss of infrastructure, and economic poverty. It also shows a considerable decrease in soil fertility, water resources, agriculture productivity, livestock productivity, and the health and quality of life. The third scenario highlights the effects of 'sustainable agriculture and aquaculture practices'. This scenario also does not show much deviation from the baseline. What it indicates is an increase in sea-level rise, seawater intrusion, pest invasion, environmental degradation, and loss of infrastructure. It also displays a decrease in water resources, health, and quality of life and, consequently, an increase in economic poverty. The fourth scenario highlights the effects of 'strengthening local institutions'. This scenario is unlikely to decrease sea-level rise, seawater intrusion, pest invasion, environmental degradation, and loss of infrastructure. However, water resources, agriculture productivity, and livestock productivity are likely to increase, leading to reduced economic poverty. This scenario also shows an increase in water resource management, sustainable agriculture and aquaculture practices, healthcare facilities, and credits and subsidies because a vibrant local institution is likely to implement interventions in all these areas.

All the concepts deployed for the previous scenarios have been clamped together in the fifth scenario. This integrative scenario displays a marginal reduction in climate change impacts compared to the baseline. However, seawater intrusion, pest invasion, environmental degradation, and economic poverty show a continuous rise. On the other hand, water resources, agriculture production, and livestock productivity show an increase leading to a decrease in the economic poverty. This scenario also indicates an increase in water resource management, sustainable agriculture and aquaculture practices, healthcare facilities, and credits and subsidies (see Table 3 and Figure S1).

Overall, the results of the FCM-based scenario analysis illustrate that the possibilities of climate risk in the region cannot be ruled out in the future even after having implemented all the adaptations. This signifies limits to the ongoing adaptations, meaning the existing adaptations in the area are inadequate in the context of providing resilience to the community against climate stressors.



Note: IV stands for initial value; Concepts shown in Blue are climate stressors, concepts shown in Black are climate-related impacts, and concepts shown in Red are climate change adaptations in the area as perceived by the communities.
