2.4.3. Long Term Energy Probabilities

Based on forest biomass predictions, the energy (*ETEtOH*, GJ) contained in the ethanol produced can be calculated as:

$$E\_{\rm EOH}^T = 1.097(Q\_{\rm timber}^T + Q\_{\rm residue}^T)(P\_{\rm imber}^{\rm harm}a\_{\rm hard}^{\rm nr}\beta\_{\rm hard}^{\rm nr} \cdot HHV\_{\rm hard} + P\_{\rm imber}^{\rm soft}a\_{\rm soft}^{\rm nr}\beta\_{\rm soft}^{\rm nr} \cdot HHV\_{\rm soft}) \tag{9}$$

where *βerhard* represent the energy ratio of ethanol from hardwood and *βerso f t* is the one for softwood. *HHVhard* (MJ/kg) is higher heat value for hardwood and *HHVsoft* (MJ/kg) is the one for softwood.

For Michigan's case, the long term energy probabilities can be calculated as:

$$E\_{EtOH}^{T,MI} = Q\_{t\text{mber}}^{T} \left( 0.85 a\_{\text{hard}}^{\text{mr}} \beta\_{\text{hard}}^{\text{cr}} HHV\_{\text{hard}} + 0.28 a\_{\text{soft}}^{\text{mr}} \beta\_{\text{soft}}^{\text{cr}} HHV\_{\text{soft}} \right) \tag{10}$$
