**Initial Provincial Water Rights Dynamic Projection Pursuit Allocation Based on the Most Stringent Water Resources Management: A Case Study of Taihu Basin, China**

### **Min Ge 1,2,\*, Feng-Ping Wu 3 and Min You 3**


Academic Editors: Helena Margarida Ramos and Davide Viaggi Received: 24 August 2016; Accepted: 3 January 2017; Published: 10 January 2017

**Abstract:** Clarification of initial water rights is the basis and prerequisite for a water rights trade-off market and also an effective solution to the problem of water scarcity and water conflicts. According to the new requirements for the most stringent water resources managemen<sup>t</sup> in China, an initial provincial water rights allocation model is proposed. Firstly, based on analysis of multiple principles for initial provincial water rights allocation including total water use, water use efficiency, water quality of water function zones, regional coordination and sharing, an index system of initial provincial water rights allocation is designed. Secondly, according to dynamic projection pursuit technique, an initial provincial water rights allocation model with the total water use control is set up. Moreover, the self-adaptive chaotic optimization algorithm is applied to tackle the model. Finally, a case study of Taihu Basin is adopted. Considering the multiple scenarios of three different water frequencies (50%, 75% and 90%) and planning year 2030, the empirical results show Jiangsu Province always obtains the most initial water rights. When the developing situation of provinces are given more consideration, Shanghai should acquire more initial water rights than Zhejiang Province; but when the dynamic increment evolving trend of provinces is taken more into account, Shanghai should obtain less initial water rights than Zhejiang Province. The case about Taihu Lake further verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed model and provides a multiple-scenarios decision making support for entitling the initial water rights with the most stringent water resources managemen<sup>t</sup> constrains in Taihu Basin.

**Keywords:** most stringent water resources management; initial provincial water rights; dynamic projection pursuit
