**5. Conclusions**

Under the new background of the most stringent water resources managemen<sup>t</sup> in China, an effective and reasonable allocation of initial provincial water rights following the benchmark of the three red lines is the basis and prerequisite for a water rights trade-off market. It is an effective solution to the problem of water scarcity and a significant approach for achieving harmony between economic and social development and available water resources in China. The dynamic projection pursuit allocation method proposed to obtain the multiple scenarios of solutions for initial provincial water rights has met the requirements of controlling the total water use, improving water use efficiency, and controlling pollution of water function zones. Furthermore, it absorbed the idea of coordinated and sharable development. The empirical research of Taihu Basin further verified the feasibility and effectiveness of the model in this paper. The empirical results shown under the different water frequencies of 50% 75% and 90%, for the planning year 2030, where the developing situation of provinces is given more consideration, Jiangsu Province obtains the most initial water rights, followed by Shanghai City and Zhejiang Province. If we are more concerned about the dynamic increment evolving trend of provinces, Jiangsu Province will acquire the most quantity of initial provincial water rights, but Zhejiang Province should obtain more than Shanghai City. Further research can focus on improving the index system of initial provincial water rights allocation to satisfy the requirements of the most stringent water resources managemen<sup>t</sup> better.

**Acknowledgments:** The authors would like to thank the financial support provided by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 71301063; Grant No. 41271537), sponsorship provided by "Jiangsu Overseas Research and Training Program for University Prominent Young and Middle-aged Teachers and Presidents" (2014) and "333" high-caliber talents cultivation project of Jiangsu Province (No. (2013)III-2110).

**Author Contributions:** Min Ge designed the research and drafted the manuscript; Feng-Ping Wu conducted the model simulation, reviewed, commented on, and revised the manuscript; Min You collected the data. All authors have read and approved the final manuscript.

**Conflicts of Interest:** The authors declare no conflict of interest.
