3.1.2. Pluvial Flooding

More intense storms in the magnitude of 20–40% greater intensity are expected to occur more commonly by the turn of the next century [28]. This element is captured in the increased flood extents illustrated in Figure 8. In general, these show that under climate change and for very rare events, the depth and severity of flooding will increase more significantly than will the extents of flooding, due to the constraints imposed by the urban terrain.

**Figure 8.** Pluvial flood extents increasing over time with the predicted impacts of climate change.

In the Ashton area, the likelihood of property flooding as a result of combining a high tide with a severe storm is estimated to be roughly four times more probable than at present by the 2050s and over ten times more probable by the 2080s under the climate change conditions assessed here.
