2.2.2. Cumulative Moving Average

Observation of the fleet data suggested a relatively regular pattern of vehicle activity during a typical week. A simple cumulative moving average (CMA) was, therefore, calculated to represent the probability of each vehicle's availability during each half-hour period. Each row of the training dataset was processed to determine the vehicle (*v*), day (*d*), half-hour period (*hh*) and availability (*av*). The corresponding probability (CMA) was then updated using Equation (3). This resulted in 336 probabilities for each vehicle: 48 for each of the 7 days of the week.

$$\text{CMA}\_{\text{ll}}(v, d, lhh) = \frac{\text{CMA}\_{n-1}(v, d, lhh) \* (n-1) + a\_{\text{U}}}{n} \tag{3}$$

A vehicle was predicted to be available, i.e., *av* = 1, for a given half-hour period if the associated CMA was greater than 0.5.
