*2.3. Transient-State Forecast Error*

The estimated load forecast may change as a result of a sudden natural occurrences, such as tsunami, typhoons, or holidays. Such changes are temporary and may not occur often. Thus, the day-ahead predictive parameters may not reflect these sudden changes. Hence, the predictive model forecast may deviate from the expected forecast. The predictive model captures only steady-state parameters when the load is modeled to fit historical data. The steady-state predictive model ignores transient forecast errors. Such a phenomenon significantly reduces the accuracy of the load forecast.
