**Valerio Lombardo \*, Stefano Corradini, Massimo Musacchio, Malvina Silvestri and Jacopo Taddeucci**

Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, 00143 Roma, Italy; stefano.corradini@ingv.it (S.C.); massimo.musacchio@ingv.it (M.M.); malvina.silvestri@ingv.it (M.S.); jacopo.taddeucci@ingv.it (J.T.) **\*** Correspondence: valerio.lombardo@ingv.it; Tel.: +39-06-51860-508

Received: 30 January 2019; Accepted: 12 March 2019; Published: 19 March 2019

**Abstract:** The high temporal resolution of the Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI) instrument aboard Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) provides the opportunity to investigate eruptive processes and discriminate different styles of volcanic activity. To this goal, a new detection method based on the wavelet transform of SEVIRI infrared data is proposed. A statistical analysis is performed on wavelet smoothed data derived from SEVIRI Mid-Infrared( MIR) radiances collected from 2011 to 2017 on Mt Etna (Italy) volcano. Time-series analysis of the kurtosis of the radiance distribution allows for reliable hot-spot detection and precise timing of the start and end of eruptive events. Combined kurtosis and gradient trends allow for discrimination of the different activity styles of the volcano, from effusive lava flow, through Strombolian explosions, to paroxysmal fountaining. The same data also allow for the prediction, at the onset of an eruption, of what will be its dominant eruptive style at later stages. The results obtained have been validated against ground-based and literature data.

**Keywords:** volcanic eruption interpretation; eruption forecasting; MSG SEVIRI; wavelet; remote sensing; thermal measurements; lava fountain; lava flow; Mt.Etna; eruptive style
