*4.3. E*ff*ects of ZEV Promotion on Air Pollution*

As shown in Figure 7, most emission reductions are expected from the LDV4W sector because ZEVs' dissemination is mostly expected in this sector. In general, emissions slightly reduce for all pollutants. In the Sunset case, emission reduction rates of NH3, NOx, PM2.5, SOx, and VOC are expected to be 3.7% (254 tonnes), 0.5% (1488 tonnes), 1.2% (155 tonnes), 1.5% (2 tonnes), and 0.9% (462 tonnes) respectively in 2040. In the NoSunset case, the NH3 emission reduction rate is expected to be relatively higher due to the increase in ZEVs' share in the LDV4W sector—the LDV4W sector has high NH3 emissions. On the other hand, emissions from the bus sector rise for all pollutants compared to REF with an increase in its service demand (Figure 5c). Estimates of PM2.5 emission reduction are smaller than autonomously reduced emissions over time without any policy (the REF case).

According to CPFDM, the government has set a target of reducing NOx, PM2.5, SOx, and VOC emissions in the transportation sector by 65%, 36%, 71%, and 44% of the emissions in 2024 respectively below those in 2016. In case of NH3, there is no reduction target for the transportation sector. To compare the simulation results, the emission reduction target in the transportation sector is divided into emissions targets for the road transportation sector and the non-road transportation sector according to their proportion in base year 2016. As the simulation results are represented in a 5-year step, projected emissions are linearly interpolated.

Table 6 gives a comparison of the simulation results for emission reduction targets for the road transportation sector. The SOx emission reduction target can be seen to be intended for the non-road transportation sectors considering the SOx emissions portion in road transportation (0.6%). The simulation results show that NOx, PM2.5, and VOC emission reduction targets can be achieved as much as 4.0%, 11.5%, and 4.8% respectively in the Sunset case. According to a report released by the National Assembly Budget Office [10], the ZEV subsidy policy does not have a significant impact on reducing PM2.5. PM2.5 emission reductions by the ZEV subsidy policy accounted for only 3% of the overall emission reductions by PM2.5 mitigation measures for the road transportation sector, whereas 76% of the overall budget for them was spent on the ZEVs subsidy in 2018 according to the report.

**Figure 7.** Emission reductions compared to emissions in REF (each scenario minus REF). Note: The values above the bars represent the percentage of emission reductions compared to REF.



<sup>1</sup> The base year is 2016.; <sup>2</sup> In CPFDM, the NH3 emission reduction target was not set for the transportation sector.

Figure 8 illustrates expected emission reductions by province. The pattern of emission reductions is similar to expected ZEVs' dissemination (Figure 6b). For example, the Seoul metropolitan area has the highest transportation activities, showing the biggest emission reductions in all the scenarios. In the Sunset scenario, the emission reductions expected in 2040 are 130 tonnes of NH3 (51% of national emission reductions); 711 tonnes of NOx (48%); 68 tonnes of PM2.5 (44%); 1 tonne of SOx (50% );

and 244 tonnes of VOC (53%). Chungnam and Chungbuk, which provide the highest subsidy for BEVs in LDV4W, show the second and third-largest emission reductions, following the Seoul metropolitan area. The expected emission reductions in these two provinces are 40 tonnes of NH3 (16%), 238 tonnes of NOx (16%), 32 tonnes of PM2.5 (21%), 0.3 tonnes of SOx (15%), and 57 tonnes of VOC (12%) in the Sunset case.

**Figure 8.** Emission reductions compared to REF in 2040.
