*Communication* **A Poisson Autoregressive Model to Understand COVID-19 Contagion Dynamics**

#### **Arianna Agosto and Paolo Giudici \***

Department of Economics and Management, University of Pavia, 27100 Pavia, Italy; arianna.agosto@unipv.it **\*** paolo.giudici@unipv.it

Received: 9 June 2020; Accepted: 11 July 2020; Published: 16 July 2020

**Abstract:** We present a statistical model which can be employed to understand the contagion dynamics of the COVID-19, which can heavily impact health, economics and finance. The model is a Poisson autoregression of the daily new observed cases, and can reveal whether contagion has a trend, and where is each country on that trend. Model results are exemplified from some observed series.

**Keywords:** poisson autoregressive models; contagion; predictive monitoring
