*3.3. Changes in Potential Distribution Area under Climate Change*

The effects of climate change on the potential distribution of *E. japonica* were visually analyzed by using both emission scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) and modeling methods (GARP and Maxent). Overall, both algorithms predicted that the spatial extent of the area of climate suitable for this species will increase under the RCP 2.6 scenario (Figure 5A–D). This increase was predicted to mainly occur in southern Shaanxi, Jiangsu, central Henan, central Anhui, and Yunnan in both 2050 and 2070. In the meantime, both algorithms predicted that some patches in southern Yunnan are likely to lose climatic suitability by 2050 (Figure 5A,B), while by 2070, both algorithms predicted that some additional patches of climatic suitability would continue to be lost; Maxent predicted losses in Yunnan and central Sichuan (Figure 5C) and GARP in Yunnan, Hainan, and Taiwan (Figure 5D). Under the RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenario, both algorithms predicted that climatic suitability for *E. japonica* would increase by 2050 (Figure 5E,F) but would decrease by 2070 (Figure 5G,H). In 2050, the areas of increase were

predicted to be located at the same provinces as with RCP 2.6. However, Maxent predicted that losses in suitable habitat area for *E. japonica* would occur in southern Yunnan and southern Guangdong, while GARP predicted that the losses would occur in southern Yunnan, Hainan, Taiwan, Guangdong, and Guangxi. In 2070, Maxent predicted that the area of suitable habitat would increase mainly in Shaanxi, Henan, and Sichuan, and the area would decrease mainly in Yunnan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and northern Hubei (Figure 5G). Meanwhile, GARP predicted that the area of suitable habitat would increase mainly in Shaanxi, Sichuan, and Hubei, and habitat loss would mainly occur in Yunnan, north Jiangsu, and southern Taiwan (Figure 5H).

**Figure 5.** Changes in distribution area for *Euscaphis japonica* under climate change scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 by Maxent (**A**,**C**,**E**,**G**) and GARP (**B**,**D**,**F**,**H**). A, B, scenarios for RCP2.6-2050; C, D, scenarios for RCP2.6-2070; E, F, scenarios for RCP8.5-2050; G, H, scenarios for RCP8.5-2070. -1 Sichuan; -2 Yunnan; -3 Shanxi; -4 Chongqing; -5 Guizhou; -6 Guangxi; -7 Hainan; -8 Guangdong; -<sup>9</sup> Hunan; ➉ Hubei; -<sup>11</sup> Henan; -<sup>12</sup> Anhui; -<sup>13</sup> Jiangxi; -<sup>14</sup> Jiangsu; -<sup>15</sup> Shanghai; -<sup>16</sup> Zhejiang; -<sup>17</sup> Fujian; -<sup>18</sup> Taiwan. Only the provinces where *E. japonica* is predicted to occur are shown.
