**Keliang Zhang, Lanping Sun and Jun Tao \***

Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Crop Genetics and Physiology, College of Horticulture and Plant Protection, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225009, China; zhangkeliang@yzu.edu.cn (K.Z.); sunlanlanping@foxmail.com (L.S.)

**\*** Correspondence: taojun@yzu.edu.cn; Tel.: +86-0514-8799-7219

Received: 23 March 2020; Accepted: 1 May 2020; Published: 8 May 2020

**Abstract:** Analyzing the effects of climate change on forest ecosystems and individual species is of great significance for incorporating management responses to conservation policy development. *Euscaphis japonica* (Staphyleaceae), a small tree or deciduous shrub, is distributed among the open forests or mountainous valleys of Vietnam, Korea, Japan, and southern China. Meanwhile, it is also used as a medicinal and ornamental plant. Nonetheless, the extents of *E. japonica* forest have gradually shrunk as a result of deforestation, together with the regional influence of climate change. The present study employed two methods for modeling species distribution, Maxent and Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP), to model the potential distribution of this species and the effects of climate change on it. Our results suggest that both models performed favorably, but GARP outperformed Maxent for all performance metrics. The temperate and subtropical regions of eastern China where the species had been recorded was very suitable for *E. japonica* growth. Temperature and precipitation were two primary environmental factors affecting the distribution of *E. japonica*. Under climate change scenarios, the range of suitable habitats for *E. japonica* will expand geographically toward the north. Our findings may be used in several ways such as identifying currently undocumented locations of *E. japonica*, sites where it may occur in the future, or potential locations where the species could be introduced and so contribute to the conservation and management of this species.

**Keywords:** climate change; *Euscaphis japonica*; forest management; GARP; Maxent; potential suitable habitat
