*3.3. Current and Future Habitat Projection*

The probability maps for the current habitat distribution show greater potential for both species in the northern and western areas (Figure 4). Likewise, the south-west appears to be the area most suitable for *Eucalyptus grandis*, while for *E. dunnii* the probability of occurrence is greater in the west of the country. In terms of area, *E. grandis* is the species with the highest potential for occurrence values of these indices

The prediction of the future occurrence of both species is shown in Figures 5 and 6. For *E. dunnii*, a drastic reduction in the species' habitat is predicted for the year 2050, with respect to the current situation, whereas for the year 2070 the reduction is less conspicuous. In both cases, the restriction of the occurrence of *E. dunnii* is greater in the scenarios in which greenhouse gases increase (RCP 8.5 vs. 2.6). This reduction would reach almost 100% with respect to the first of the mentioned scenarios (RCP 2.6), for all the studied regions. These tendencies are shown in Table 4 and Figure S1. A reduction of over 95% in the area of occurrence, even for the scenario of lowest temperature, was predicted by the models CA and WD for 2050. This reduction is almost total for the scenarios with higher greenhouse gas concentrations. The predictions for *E. grandis* show that the probability of occurrence will remain virtually constant for all the evaluated scenarios. On the other hand, the probability of occurrence for the two-time series does not show great changes for any of the four possible scenarios of temperature increment. These tendencies are shown in Table 4 and Figure S1.

**Figure 4.** Current probability of occurrence of *Eucalyptus dunnii* (**A**) and *E. grandis* (**B**) in Uruguay. The potential distribution was mapped in both cases with the average ensemble model.

**Figure 5.** Future probability of occurrence of *E. dunnii* obtained with the ensemble model global circulation CCSM4, in the scenarios RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, for the years 2050 and 2070.

**Figure 6.** Future probability of occurrence of *E. grandis* obtained with the ensemble global model circulation CCSM4, in the scenarios RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, for the years 2050 and 2070.


**Table 4.** Future projection for the total area (ha) and prediction (%) of *Eucalyptus dunni* (**A**) and *E. grandis* (**B**) for different scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5), applying Global Circulation Model CCSM4.
