**5. Conclusions**

Climate change will probably affect the spatial distribution of forest tree species worldwide and many research groups are currently working to adapt GCMs to local contexts. Anyway, the uncertainty is still wide. Many factors are involved with physical and anthropogenic processes on one hand and all the possible adaptive processes of forest systems to deal with climate change scenarios on the other, which are only partially known in a long-term period. With this study, an initial framework of the possible consequences of climate change phenomenon in Italian forest was proposed under the Fifth Assessment Report projections, trying to understand the different dynamics between different variables and not merely describing the potential expected species geographical shift. While any model can be built with any data coming from different sources, a real uncertainty assessment is fundamental to support useful and effective SFM strategies. Dealing with uncertainties and working with self-updating procedures seems to be the main path to address climate change effects properly, mitigating the negative effects and maintaining the delivery of ecosystems services from forests. Anyway, only monitoring networks and species-specific analysis will be able to certify or confute this tendency. Such new data will be fundamental to test current SDM and adjust projections properly. Additional results may be then provided using the new climate change pathways provided by the new IPCC projection in the Sixth Assessment Report.

**Author Contributions:** Conceptualization, M.M. (Maurizio Marchi), M.P. and G.C.; methodology, M.P., M.M. (Maurizio Marchi), and I.B; software, M.P., M.A., G.F. and M.M. (Marco Moriondo); validation, M.P., M.M. (Maurizio Marchi), M.B. and M.M. (Marco Moriondo); formal analysis, M.P. and M.M. (Maurizio Marchi); investigation, M.P., I.B. and M.M.; data curation, M.P., M.A., G.F. and M.M. (Marco Moriondo); writing—original

draft preparation, M.P., M.A. and M.M. (Maurizio Marchi); writing—review and editing, M.M. (Marco Moriondo), M.B., G.F. and G.C.; supervision, M.B. and G.C.; project administration, I.B, M.B. and G.C.; funding acquisition, M.M. (Maurizio Marchi), I.B. and G.C. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

**Funding:** This study was partially supported by the PhD grant provided by the University of Florence to Matteo Pecchi. The MDPI Article Processing Charge fee was fully covered by Maurizio Marchi using the voucher he obtained from *forests* journal as one of the four best reviewers selected by the journal with the "2019 Outstanding Reviewer Award".

**Acknowledgments:** The authors wish to thank Luca Fibbi and Fabio Maselli from CNR-Institute of BioEconomy (IBE) in Florence for the RCM data they provided for this study.

**Conflicts of Interest:** The authors declare no conflict of interest.

**Availability of Data and Materials:** The INFC2005 data are available from https://www.sian.it/inventarioforestale/ jsp/objectives.jsp while climate scenarios are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.
