3.2.3. LGM Projection Models Adding the *Q. pubescens* Distribution

The analysis of single variable contribution showed that temperature seasonality, mean temperature of wettest quarter and precipitation of driest month were the main factors influencing the model performance for *P. mugo*/*uncinata* and *P. sylvestris.* We found that the accumulated contribution of these three variables was 80% and 92% for *P. mugo*/*uncinata* and *P. sylvestris,* respectively. Instead, the potential distribution of *Q. pubescens* was the main layer influencing the model performance of *P. nigra* with a contribution of ca. 70% versus 30% and barely 8% of influence in *P. sylvestris* and *P. mugo*/*uncinata* model, respectively. The MESS analysis and the potential distributions of *P. mugo*/*uncinata, P. nigra* and *P. sylvestris* were not affected by the presence of the variable *Q. pubescens'* potential distribution. In fact, both the trend of MESS results and of the potential distributions of the three *Pinus* were similar to those obtained from the previous first models.

Maxent models for *P. mugo*/*uncinata, P. nigra* and *P. sylvestris* showed an AUC of 0.958 ± 0.028, 0.912 ± 0.079 and 0.845 ± 0.066, respectively. AUCdiff mean and standard deviation's values for all the Maxent models were <0.1.

### **4. Discussion**
