*Article* **Remote Sensing of Mangroves and Estuarine Communities in Central Queensland, Australia**

**Debbie Chamberlain 1,2,\*, Stuart Phinn 2 and Hugh Possingham 1,3**


Received: 21 November 2019; Accepted: 3 January 2020; Published: 6 January 2020

**Abstract:** Great Barrier Reef catchments are under pressure from the effects of climate change, landscape modifications, and hydrology alterations. With the use of remote sensing datasets covering large areas, conventional methods of change detection can expose broad transitions, whereas workflows that excerpt data for time-series trends divulge more subtle transformations of land cover modification. Here, we combine both these approaches to investigate change and trends in a large estuarine region of Central Queensland, Australia, that encompasses a national park and is adjacent to the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage site. Nine information classes were compiled in a maximum likelihood post classification change analysis in 2004–2017. Mangroves decreased (1146 hectares), as was the case with estuarine wetland (1495 hectares), and saltmarsh grass (1546 hectares). The overall classification accuracies and Kappa coefficient for 2004, 2006, 2009, 2013, 2015, and 2017 land cover maps were 85%, 88%, 88%, 89%, 81%, and 92%, respectively. The cumulative area of open forest, estuarine wetland, and saltmarsh grass (1628 hectares) was converted to pasture in a thematic change analysis showing the "from–to" change. We generated linear regression relationships to examine trends in pixel values across the time series. Our findings from a trend analysis showed a decreasing trend (*p* value range = 0.001–0.099) in the vegetation extent of open forest, fringing mangroves, estuarine wetlands, saltmarsh grass, and grazing areas, but this was inconsistent across the study site. Similar to reports from tropical regions elsewhere, saltmarsh grass is poorly represented in the national park. A severe tropical cyclone preceding the capture of the 2017 Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) image was likely the main driver for reduced areas of shoreline and stream vegetation. Our research contributes to the body of knowledge on coastal ecosystem dynamics to enable planning to achieve more effective conservation outcomes.

**Keywords:** Landsat; estuary; protected area; land use; land cover; change detection; time series; Great Barrier Reef
