**Sustainable Residential Building Considerations for Rural Areas: A Case Study**

#### **Lawrence Fulton \* , Bradley Beauvais, Matthew Brooks, Scott Kruse and Kimberly Lee**

Health Administration, Texas State University, San Marcos, TX 78666, USA; bmb230@txstate.edu (B.B.); mbrooks@txstate.edu (M.B.); scottkruse@txstate.edu (S.K.); Kim.lee@txstate.edu (K.L.)

**\*** Correspondence: lf25@txstate.edu

Received: 4 April 2020; Accepted: 12 May 2020; Published: 15 May 2020

**Abstract:** Intelligent use of rural residential land and sustainable construction is inexorably linked to cost; however, options exist that are eco-friendly and have a positive return on investment. In 2011, a research residence was built to evaluate various land-use and sustainable components. This Texas house has subsequently been used for both residential and research purposes. The purpose of this case study was to evaluate break-even construction considerations, to assess environmental impacts, and to evaluate qualitatively efficacy of sustainable options incorporated in the research residence. Some of the specific components discussed are home site placement (directional positioning); materiel acquisition (transportation); wood product minimization; rainwater harvesting; wastewater management; grid-tied solar array power; electric car charging via a solar array; geothermal heating and cooling; insulation selection; windows, fixtures, and appliance selection; and on-demand electric water heaters for guest areas. This study seeks to identify the impact of proper land use and sustainable techniques on the environment and return-on-investment in rural areas. Break-even and 15-year Net Present Value (NPV) analysis at 3% and 5% cost of capital were used to evaluate traditional construction, partially sustainable construction, and fully sustainable construction options for the case study house, which was built sustainably. The additional cost of sustainable construction is estimated at \$54,329. At 3%, the analysis suggests a 15-year NPV of \$334,355 (traditional) versus \$250,339 million (sustainable) for a difference of \$84K. At 5% cost of capital, that difference falls to \$63K. The total estimated annual difference in carbon emissions is 4.326 million g/CO2e for this research residence. The results indicate that good choices for quick return-on-investment in rural construction would be the use of engineered lumber, Icynene foam, and Energy Star windows and doors. Medium-term options include photovoltaic systems (PVS) capable of powering the home and an electric car. Sustainable construction options should positively affect the environment and the pocketbook. Regulations and code should require adoption of short-range, break-even sustainable solutions in residential construction.

**Keywords:** rural residential construction; rainwater harvesting; solar; spray foam; finger-jointed studs

#### **1. Introduction**

Sustainable rural land use requires environmentally sound residential construction [1]. Residential (and commercial) construction options affect the water supply [2], water demand [3,4], electricity demand [5–8], the use of land lumber and other materials [9,10], as well as the entire ecosystem [11]. Improper use of land can accelerate global warming [12,13], have impacts on human health (particularly in regards to disease) [14], lead to eutrophication/acidification of water [15,16], and cause smog formation in urban areas [17,18]. Perhaps unsurprisingly, land-use impacts are most affected by the use of wood products [19]. Sustainable construction begins with planning.

#### *1.1. Planning and Transportation Considerations*

When planning for sustainable residential construction, site placement is important to consider predominant winds and facing for solar capture [20,21]. Pre-planning of construction should include a significant sustainability analysis, and techniques such as simulation are helpful to this process [22,23]. Also important is minimizing the transportation costs (a construction waste), which include consciously purchasing materials that are located closer to the construction site [24]. Waste produced during the construction should be minimized and recycled where possible, and a construction waste management plan should include subcontractor incentives [25]. Since lumber waste is the largest contributor to detrimental land-use effects [19], the use of engineered lumber (as well as other resources) are possible solutions [26,27]. The planning for waste management must begin in the design cycle [28].

#### *1.2. Global Warming Potential*

Another consideration in pre-planning of residential construction is reducing the impacts on Global Warming Potential (GWP) balanced by a tight residential envelope to reduce requirements for heating and cooling energy. As an example, Icynene foam insulation currently has the lowest possible GWP of 1.0 [29] and provides a tight house envelope, which is a winning combination. Fenestration considerations (e.g., the installation of Energy Star windows and doors) are important to maintain the building envelope according to human and environmental considerations [30]. A residence's thermal mass is vital to achieve reductions in energy demand [31].

#### *1.3. Electricity*

Energy demands of residences must be considered prior to construction as well. Photovoltaic systems (PVS), wind energy, and nuclear-power grid energy reduce the carbon footprint of the residence when compared to traditional fossil fuel and sequestration plants. The difference is estimated to be from 78 to 110 gCO2eq kWh−1 to 3.5 to 12 gCO2eq kWh−1 [32]. The use of solar water heaters or tankless electric water heaters powered by a PVS are two of many options that may reduce both cost and kWh demand [33]. Further, electric cars charged by PVS that are sized properly for residential and transportation demands may reduce environmental impacts, as will the proper choice of Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) [9,34].

Some new residential construction has attempted to reduce the demand for grid electricity and slow global warming by Net-Zero (or even Net-Positive) construction, which involves the design of facilities that either consume no net energy (demand less than supply) or that produce more energy than consumption [35,36]. Net-Zero construction may even power user transportation, further reducing the impact of the built environment [37,38]. Net-Zero homes coupled with proper water management and residential construction techniques may mitigate many of the environmental effects associated with residential construction [9].

#### *1.4. Water and Wastewater*

Water life-cycle considerations are vital when constructing houses in rural areas, particularly in rule-of-capture states that allow for exploitation of common-use groundwater [39]. The source of water should be responsibly considered (e.g., well water, rainwater harvesting, or municipal water connections, assuming they exist). Well contamination in rural communities is a significant consideration [40–42], and municipal water connections may be unavailable. Rainwater harvesting is then an option, which reduces the overall supply requirements for each gallon demanded when compared to groundwater and which has other beneficial properties including softness [43–45]. Environmentally responsible use of any water source must consider the use of low-flow fixtures. Use of these fixtures resulted in a 22% reduction in average annual household usage from 1999 to 2016 [46]. Further, xeriscaping reduces water requirements, can contribute to the success of construction projects, and should be part of best practices in arid and semiarid regions particularly [47]. Part of the water

life cycle requires disposal of black water. In rural areas, no municipal sewage system may exist, so the options are aerobic or anaerobic sewer systems. While aerobic systems break down waste more quickly than anaerobic systems, they are more expensive from both acquisition and maintenance perspectives [48].

#### *1.5. Purpose and Research Questions*

This case study analyzes best-practice construction design for both the environment and the consumer based on a rural residence designed in 2011 for research purposes. This residence was the highest-rated house ever certified by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) at the time it was built [37]. NAHB sets standards for rating construction based on energy efficiency, water conservation, resource conservation, indoor environmental quality, site design, and homeowner education [49]. The actual standards are available here: [50]. Both construction successes and failures are analyzed with commentary from both the environmental and consumer perspective.

The primary research question addresses which sustainable construction options in this case study would also achieve breakeven (and when) if built today, as well as how sustainable these interventions are in terms of environmental impact. A secondary component of the study investigates the Net Present Value (NPV) of two different construction options that were available for building the research residence: traditional and sustainable. The time horizon investigated was 15 years. Comparing these three building decisions helps inform the value of green construction. Further, qualitative assessments of the sustainable interventions are provided.

#### *1.6. Significance*

The study's significance is that it investigates which sustainable options may result in a reasonable break-even period and whether planning of proper land use and application of sustainable construction may produce a return-on-investment while minimizing environmental effects. While this case study is not generalizable, the equations provided to compare both cost and environmental considerations may be applied to any other case, making the study useful. Further, the experiential component of the study spans nearly a decade of lived experience. No literature exists from a researcher in this area who has lived the results of the sustainable experimentation, which makes this study unique. The study's significance is that

The study is also significant to increasing use of renewable sources in Texas. The use of solar or wind power solutions becomes increasingly relevant to rural Texans [51], and the state had over 28,871 MW of installed wind capacity at the end of 2019 [52]. Figure 1 shows that, in many areas of rural Texas (identified in Figure 2), the average wind speed would support wind turbine construction. Figure 3 illustrates the solar production potential by state

**Figure 1.** Choropleth map of wind speed by county in Texas.

**Figure 2.** Choropleth of state solar production potential.

**Figure 3.** Distribution of Population Intensity in Texas.

#### *1.7. Generalizability*

" " " " While this is a case study, the majority of Texas is actually rural (Census Bureau data, [53]), so the techniques discussed are widely applicable within the state (see Figure 3, mapped in R Statistical Software [54] using the software library "choroplethr" [55]). Further, there is evidence that both new housing as well as renovations and modifications are needed in the rural areas of Texas [56], so this case study is made more important in that it provides some best-practice considerations. The rural areas in Texas often face enormous electrical transmission and distribution rates, sometimes twice the state average [57].

The study proceeds as follows. First, a discussion of Net Present Value (NPV) and break-even analysis is explicated in Section 2. Following this section, Section 3 evaluates the elements of construction included in the sustainable house, which is the subject of the study. After a discussion of these elements, analysis of various constructions based on the study residence are evaluated in terms of both break-even timing and NPV. Finally, ideas and insights are provided in the discussion and conclusion, Sections 4 and 5, respectively.

#### **2. Materials and Methods**

In this case study, we evaluated deterministically the environmental impacts, life-cycle costs, and efficacy of multiple sustainable building innovations for rural residences versus more traditional construction. The rural research residence informing this study is an approximately 4800 square foot home (446 square meters) and located in a semiarid environment in Texas. The options used in this construction are compared directly against more traditional options for both cost and environmental effects.

The study evaluates home site placement; materials transportation; reclaimed wood framing; spray-foam insulation; window, fixture, and appliance selection; material recycling; rainwater harvesting design and engineering; aerobic septic system; xeriscaping; grid-tied solar arrays; electric car charging and use; on-demand water heaters; geothermal heating and cooling; and electrical back-up system options. The home has supported between 2 and 3 full-time, middle-aged residents (one adult worker) with seasonal demand of up to 20 individuals during holidays over the last 9 years. The residence was occupied shortly after its construction and has been in constant use.

#### *2.1. Break-Even Analysis*

Specific methods used include deterministic break-even analysis for each element evaluated (if one exists) based on acquisition costs of the sustainable option versus one or more other options. Break-even analysis evaluates monetary outflows of residential construction options (as well as any returns) and evaluates at what point (if ever) total costs of both options intersect [58]. The break-even point is determined using Equation (1). The break-even point is then when total costs of one option equal total costs of another option. In this equation, *FC* stands for fixed costs, *VC* represents variable costs (e.g., maintenance and operations), and the index set represents the option number and time index. There are some semi-variable costs (e.g., step functions for item replacements) involved in the construction analysis, and these are included in the variable costs.

$$FC\_{1t} + VC\_{1t} - FC\_{2t} - VC\_{2t} = 0\tag{1}$$

#### *2.2. Net Present Value*

As part of the analysis, this case study evaluated three different construction possibilities for the original research residence and their associated profitability using net present value (NPV). Two of the three construction options are at opposite ends of the spectrum (traditional versus sustainable), while the third uses many of the sustainable elements with a positive NPV. NPV is calculated according to Equation (2), where *i* is the index for the option selected, *R<sup>t</sup>* is the net cash inflow and outflows at time *t*, *A* is the accumulation rate (1 + return rate), and *n* is the number of time periods evaluated [59]. The time period used for NPV analysis is 15 years.

$$NPV\_j = \sum\_{t=1}^{n} \frac{R\_t}{A^t} \tag{2}$$

#### *2.3. Construction Components Evaluated*/*Data Sources*

The case study involves a single structure built in one specific way; however, it also evaluates breakeven and NPV had it been built in alternative ways to provide useful comparisons for the reader. Table 1 provides the category, the items evaluated, the data sources, and the cradle-to-grave cost estimates with comments for those items. Some elements discussed in the case study are not included in the breakeven and NPV analysis, however. These elements (such as site placement) may have an effect in either direction, but the size and directionality are unknown.


**Table 1.** Construction categories and components evaluated (inflation at 3% per year).

*Abbreviations: Heating Ventilation Air Conditioning (HVAC), Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle (ICEV), Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV), Greenhouse Gases (GHG), Photovoltaic System (PVS).*

In the subsequent sections, the study explicates the acquisition and operations and maintenance (O&M) costs for each of these categories. Data for each of the areas evaluated from breakeven were acquired from peer-reviewed literature where possible and from construction firms where there were no data (e.g., engineered lumber versus traditional studs). Data ranges were sought, and the midpoints of these ranges were used for deterministic calculations.

#### *2.4. Environmental and Qualitative Analysis*

When relevant, an analysis of the environmental advantages of sustainable construction versus other options is provided. Relevant research from the literature is extracted to estimate carbon emissions, water quality, etc., similar to Fulton et al. (2020) [9]. Part of the sustainable construction assessment was a qualitative assessment involving elements of the triple bottom line (TBL) [60]. The experience of the research team and home resident augment the data-driven analysis.

#### *2.5. Data and Software*

Data for the deterministic breakeven and return on investment (ROI) portions of this case study were garnered from previous research as well as data sources appropriate to the residence itself. All analyses were conducted in Microsoft Office Excel 2016 and R Statistical Software [54].

#### **3. Results**

#### *3.1. Initial Considerations*

#### 3.1.1. Construction Planning, Permitting, and Analyses

The land was two years prior to construction, as the design process required significant planning, permitting, and modeling. Aside from the typical surveying, permits for operating an on-site sewer facility and (later) driveway placement were required [61]. At the time, the maximum grid-tied PVS array permitted by the utility company was 10 kW, so a waiver was required based on analysis of user consumption. Utility pole transformer size was analyzed and found acceptable without resizing. Further, the utility company regulated the grid-tied interconnection of the backup propane generation system [62]. As an example of analysis conducted prior to building, the sizing of the rainwater harvesting system was estimated through simulation [43]. Construction waste management and recycling required significant preplanning, and the well placement for the geothermal HVAC had to be mapped and approved. The processes described here required approximately six months of lead time, which is a consideration should quicker construction be required. Construction planning, permitting, and analyses are not part of the break-even or NPV analyses.

#### 3.1.2. Site Placement

The rural residence in the study was designed from the ground up to be sustainable, and the design considerations included geographical placement. The home site was selected to be north-facing to maximize solar capture (west-, south-, and east-facing panels) and to leverage predominant local winds (south to north) [20]. Further, the site selected minimized tree removal, reducing cost and effect on the environment. Qualitatively, the placement was a success in this construction, as the solar capture is as expected (discussed later), and the cost as well as the environmental impact of excess tree removal was avoided. Figure 4 is the Google Maps satellite image of the house with various sustainable callouts that are referenced later [63]. Site placement is not per se evaluated in the break-even and NPV analyses.

**Figure 4.** The residence as constructed.

### 3.1.3. Material Location/Transportation

One of the major sustainability considerations in residential construction is the transportation of materials [64]. As part of the rural residence design, only local materials (those within 50 miles) were selected. For example, local limestone was selected for the exterior. Reducing transportation requirements reduces emissions. One study found a 215% decrease in the amount of energy used in building and a 453% decrease in the impact of transportation when local building supplies were used [65]. The reduction in environmental impact is measurable and significant. Estimating the savings in construction for use of these materials is difficult and omitted from this case study.

#### 3.1.4. Waste Collection and Recycling

During construction, bins for waste were used to recycle materials as appropriate (Figure 4). Metals, plastic, and glass were recycled, congruent with previous research [64]. Doing so allowed for reclaimed wood to be fabricated into engineered lumber and for used paper and metal to be used in other capacities. While this has little to no bearing on cost (perhaps 2.5% back to the builder [66]), it does have an effect on the environment. In terms of Global Warming Potential, recycling has the

greatest impact versus incineration or landfill options [67]. This is the last element that is not included in the break-even and NPV analyses.

#### *3.2. Engineered Lumber*/*Finger-Jointed Studs*

Reclaimed wood (specifically finger-jointed studs) were used in the residential construction (see Figure 4). These studs are also straighter and result in less wood wasted. They neither split nor twist like traditional studs [68]. Further, they have a strong vertical load capability, with evidence that many species (including pine) have better structural properties when finger-jointed, although that evidence is mixed [69].

#### 3.2.1. Environmental Considerations

A 20" diameter tree with 42 feet length of usable wood produces about 260 board feet. The Idaho Forest Products Commission estimated that a typical 2000 square foot house would use 102 trees of that size [70]. Assuming linearity, the rural residence, a 4800 square foot home (446 square meters, would have been estimated to require approximately 245 trees. Assuming an offset of even 25% of the wood requirements results in a reduction of about 61 trees. See Table 2. For this deterministic study, the estimate of trees saved would be between 24.5 and 98 given the size of the house.

**Table 2.** Estimate of trees saved by using engineered lumber (finger-jointed studs) in this case study.


#### 3.2.2. Acquisition and 15-Year Operations and Maintenance (O&M) Costs

The cost of finger-jointed studs may be more expensive than regular studs. For example, the retail cost of a 2 × 4 × 104 5/8" (0.6 × 1.2 × 2.7 meters) regular pine stud versus the same size finger-jointed stud is listed at \$3.62 [71] versus \$5.59 [72], respectively. This is a 54.4% cost increase for materials (much less than estimated by [69] for pine), which might be offset by lower labor costs due to engineered lumber's straightness.

The cost differential is not atypical, as many engineered lumber products have upcharges between 1.5 and 2 times the cost of traditional lumber [69,72]. One site estimates the total cost of traditional framing between \$4 and \$10 per square foot for labor and \$3 and \$6 per square foot for materials [73]. With a 30% reduction in labor costs for engineered lumber, low material costs for standard lumber, and 54.4% higher costs in engineered lumber, there are several ways in which finger-jointed studs might actually save money. Table 3 illustrates those combinations (2020 dollars).

Using the average estimate of \$7 for labor and \$4 for materials (traditional construction) and 30% reductions in labor (\$4.90) with 54.4% increases in materials (\$6.18, nontraditional construction) results in comparative estimates of \$52,800 (traditional stud construction) and \$53,184 (engineered lumber), underlined in Table 3. The total difference in cost is estimated to be nominal, but the environmental impact is not, as it saves old-growth trees [26]. O&M costs are considered nominal for the 15-year NPV analysis.


**Table 3.** Regular lumber versus finger-jointed studs cost per square foot of construction and total.

#### *3.3. Residential Envelope*

Residential spray-foam insulation (Figure 4) provides a thermal barrier with exceedingly low conductivity (0.021 W/mK in one study [74]). Icynene spray foam has reasonable hygrothermal properties and is resistant to moisture migration; however, mechanical extraction and humidity controls may need to be installed (as in the case study) because of the tight environmental seal of the house and the requirement to exchange air. The practical relevance of the tight seal around the rural residence is that, during the heat of the summer in this semiarid region (in excess of 100 ◦F, 38 ◦C), the observed temperature in the attic spaces does not exceed 80 ◦F/26.7 ◦C with the house thermometer set to 76 ◦F/24.4 ◦C.

#### 3.3.1. Environmental Considerations

From an environmental perspective, water-blown Icynene spray-foam insulation has a reduced carbon footprint from better HVAC usage [9]. Still, other forms of insulation have better characteristics for insulation, although not necessarily cost profile [75]. In retrospect, alternative materials would probably be used for the case study residence if built now.

#### 3.3.2. Acquisition Costs and 15-Year O&M

The 2020 cost for open-cell spray-foam insulation is about \$0.35 to \$0.55 per board foot [76], which is lower than the cost estimated by Kalhor and Ememinejad [77] (\$0.80 to \$1.30) but nearly identical to the cost found on the manufacturer's website [78] (\$0.40 to \$0.60). To account for regional variation, the information from [76] is used for Icynene foam cost estimates. A 3.5" depth of spray converts to \$1.23 to \$1.93 per square foot or \$13.24 to \$20.77 per square meter. Fiberglass batt insulation runs \$0.64 to \$1.19 per square foot or \$6.89 to \$12.81 per square meter [76]. Assuming average costs of \$1.58 per square foot (spray-foam) and \$0.915 (fiberglass) with 8000 square feet of attic and walls to be insulated (estimated from case study house) results in cost estimates of \$12,640 and \$7320, respectively [79], but the second estimate is not complete.

Spray foam works as an air barrier, vapor barrier, water-resistant barrier, and insulation. There is no need for attic vents, test ductwork, or air-seal attics. When evaluated in this manner, it is actually 10–15% less expensive than traditional construction [79]. Adding 12.5% (the average between 10%-and 15%) to the \$12,640 estimate for spray-foam construction results in an estimate of \$14,420 for insulation, vapor barrier, vents, test duct work, etc. For the break-even analysis, then, the final values used were \$12,460 for the installation of Icynene and \$14,420 for use of fiberglass.

#### 3.3.3. Qualitative Assessment

Spray foam makes the attic space usable in hot weather. While this may be a minor point, it is an important consideration for homeowners considering building options.

#### *3.4. Low Solar Heat Gain Coe*ffi*cient (SHGC) and U-Factor Windows (Energy Star)*

Solar Heat Gain Coefficient (SHGC) is defined as the fraction of incident solar radiation admitted through a window. In warm climates, windows should have solar heat gain coefficients (SHGC) less than 0.25 [80]. Further, the U factor, a factor that expresses the insulative value of windows, should be 0.4 or lower. Low-emissivity windows and doors with SHGC of 0.23 and U-Factor of 0.3 were used throughout the case study house.

#### 3.4.1. Environmental Considerations

The selection of Energy Star windows and doors resulted in a smaller sizing for the PVS system, as the demand for heating and cooling is 17% to 31% less [81]. There is no achievable carbon output reduction by use of these windows on a house that is already 100% reliant on PVS (except for gray energy). (For a traditional grid-powered residence, that savings might be between 246 and 6205 lbs. of CO<sup>2</sup> [81].)

#### 3.4.2. Acquisition and 15-Year O&M Costs

Low-emissivity windows are 10% to 15% more expensive than standard windows [82], although one study indicated that the cost was about \$50 more per window [83]. The typical cost range in 2020 dollars is \$385 to \$785, with an average of \$585 [84]. The Department of Energy estimates savings of \$125 to \$465 dollars a year from replacing windows with new windows that have higher Energy Star ratings [81], which is lower than estimated in [83]. Assuming average cost for Energy Star windows (\$585), 15% less expensive traditional windows (\$508.70), and a total of 25 windows (based on the case study house construction) results in acquisition costs of \$14,625 (Energy Star) versus \$12,717.50 (non-Energy Star). Exterior door costs vary greatly depending on type and nature. For the case study facility, one Energy Star double door and single door were installed at a cost of \$2000. Assuming a 15% premium (as in the case of the windows), standard doors would be estimated at \$1739.13. The total cost for Energy Star versus standard windows and doors is then \$16,625 and \$14,457, respectively (not including any applicable tax credits if available). No O&M costs are estimated during the 15-year window used for NPV analysis.

#### *3.5. Rainwater Harvesting*

The decision to install a rainwater harvesting system (RWH) versus a well or city water is one that is entirely dependent on the environment, the availability of municipal water, the homeowner's wishes, and regulations. In this case study, no city water sources were available. After a cost analysis, it was estimated that the cost for a well and the cost for a rainwater harvesting system (at the time of build) would be nearly identical largely due to well-depth requirements (1200').

Figure 5 depicts the RWH as currently installed in the rural residence. The system works as follows. Rainwater falls on the roof and is captured by gutters. The guttered water flows to the cistern where ~100 gallons or so is flushed out through a pipe with a ball float to eject the debris on the roof. Once the ball float seals the flushing tube, the water continues into French drain and basket filters and then into a cistern. Parallel on-demand pumps push water towards the house where it is processed through a sediment filter, charcoal regeneration system, and ultraviolet light, which is an effective method for inactivating pathogens through irradiation [85].

Quality considerations for water are significant. Using rainfall for potable house needs requires proper roof selection (ceramic or metal as examples), flushing (first flush), gross filtering (e.g., French drain and basket filters), storage (food-grade butyl rubber), pumping, cleansing (e.g., sediment filter and charcoal regeneration), purifying (ultraviolet purification as one example), and disposal of gray water (aerobic septic system). Baseline quality construction requirements are found in [86].

**Figure 5.** Rainwater harvesting system as designed.

Design of an RWH capable of meeting the needs of an entire household required simulation modeling, so that the distribution of the minimum in the cistern (order statistic) would be strictly greater than zero over all supply and demand considerations and all simulation runs. Details of the simulation are available from [43,45]. The final system selected included 4000 square feet of capture space and a 40,000-gallon cistern.

#### 3.5.1. Environmental Considerations

Rainwater harvesting was selected for both sustainability and quality considerations; however, RWH is not always the least expensive option even given life-cycle costs [9]. From a sustainability perspective, RWH requires far less water for the same aquifer demand. Specifically, runoff, absorption/adsorption, and evaporation/transpiration reduce aquifer resupply by at least 30% [87]. On the other hand, RWH systems capture 75% to 90% of rainwater, depending on design and rainfall [86]. The amount of water pulled from the aquifer to supply one gallon is therefore at least 3.333 gallons, whereas well RWH systems capturing only 75% of the available rainfall require 1.333 gallons. The net savings to the aquifer is 2 gallons of water per 1 gallon demanded. Further, the water quality exceeds local and state requirements at the residence and should at similarly constructed residences when the RWH is constructed properly due to minimization of non-point source pollutants. The life-cycle impact for RWH has shown to be better than municipal water as well [88]. RWH also reduces carbon emissions, as water-related energy uses are significant (e.g., 19% of electricity use in California during the year 2001, [89]).

#### 3.5.2. Acquisition, Operations, and Maintenance (O&M) Costs

Acquisition costs for the rainwater harvesting system (guttering, PVC piping, Pioneer 40K gallon cistern with butyl rubber liner and accessories) cost approximately \$25,500 in 2020 [90]. Current well drilling prices in Texas are about \$30 to \$55 per foot [91]. On this property, a 600' drilling depth is required. At the average \$42.50 per foot, the drilling cost alone would run \$25,500 in 2020.

' drilling depth is Cost to maintain an RWH is reasonable. Ultraviolet tubes (replaced annually for typical use) as well as sediment filters and other system requirements cost approximately \$328 per year [92]. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, wells should also be inspected annually [93] at a cost of \$300 to \$500 [94]. The 15-year total costs are then \$31,500 (well) versus \$30,420 (RWH). When inflated by 3%, the costs are \$33,563 (well) and \$32,111 (RWH).

#### 3.5.3. Qualitative Assessment

RWH is one of the best features both environmentally and practically. The water purification process results in high-quality, soft water, which is better for water-based appliances like coffee pots and dishwashers. There is additional work required that the consumer must understand (filter replacement, gutter cleaning, etc.).

#### *3.6. Water Fixtures*

Selection of appliances and fixtures is important for a sustainable house reliant on 100% rainwater. Toilets, shower heads, and other water fixtures were low flow/high pressure, as the rural residence was only plumbed for rainwater harvesting.

#### 3.6.1. Envrionmental Considerations

Mayer et al. [95] estimate that toilets use 29% of indoor water consumption, while water used for showering/bathing, dishwashing, and laundry consume about 36%, 14%, and 21%, respectively. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) shows that high-pressure, low-flow shower heads reduce flow from 2.5 gallons per minute to 2.0 gallons per minute, a 20% reduction [96]. In semiarid regions (such as the location for the case study), the use of low-flow fixtures is vital.

#### 3.6.2. Acquisition and 15-Year O&M Costs

Costs for low-flow fixtures are comparable to standard fixtures, depending on brand. Further, Texas law requires the use of low-flow fixtures in new construction [97], so there are no cost acquisition differences measured among possible construction options. While dual-flush toilets are not required by Texas law, they were installed for additional water savings and at no additional cost. Break-even analysis did not include an analysis of low-flow fixtures, as they are required by law and are approximately equivalent in cost.

#### 3.6.3. Qualitative Assessment

Most of the low-flow appliances work as well or better than traditional fixtures. Selection of dual-flush toilets, however, must be done after consumer research. Dual-flush should not mean "flush twice." These fixtures have underperformed due to improper selection.

#### *3.7. Aerobic Septic*

#### 3.7.1. Environmental Considerations

Cradle-to-grave water management requires that black water be treated responsibly and sustainably. In this area, aerobic septic systems are required by regulation. The residence construction included a Jet Biologically Accelerated Treatment (BAT) plant (also termed Biologically Accelerated Wastewater Treatment, BAWT, plant). BAT plants work by treating wastewater physically and biologically in a pre-treatment compartment. Water then flows through the treatment compartment where it is aerated, mixed, and treated by a host of biological organisms (a biomass). The mixture then flows to a settlement compartment where particulate matter settles, returning to the treatment compartment, leaving only odorless and clear liquid (gray water produced by the biomass), which is discharged through sprinkler heads [98]. Figure 4 shows the encased BAT system installed at the rural residence. Aerobic systems break down waste far quicker than anaerobic, due to the nature of the bacteria. The benefits to the environment include that: (1) pumps for transporting water to wastewater treatment plants are not necessary (and the associated energy costs); (2) treated water returned to the environment is cleaner; and (3) electricity for processing water (in this case) is largely, if not entirely, generated by the sun.

#### 3.7.2. Acquisition and O&M Costs

There is a cost penalty for installing such a system at this rural residence. Installing an anerobic system averages \$3500, whereas an aerobic system costs about \$10,500 [99]. Maintaining the aerobic septic system is about \$200 annually [100], which is somewhat more than anaerobic systems [101]. To account for this differential, anaerobic costs were estimated at \$180 per year (a 10% discount). The 15-year acquisition and O&M costs for aerobic versus anaerobic systems was then estimated (after 3% inflation for O&M costs) at \$7531 (anaerobic) and \$14,128 (aerobic).

#### *3.8. Tankless Water Heaters*

One of the current additions to this research residence has been the inclusion of an on-demand electric water heater for a guest room, guest kitchen, and guest bathroom. Tankless electric water heaters require less space than tanked versions and do not constantly use energy to keep water warm. Natural gas options were not available for the case study, and electric heaters powered by PVS were as effective as solar water heaters aside from gray energy considerations.

#### 3.8.1. Environmental Considerations

Because any installation would be powered via PVS in the case study residence, there would be only the potential gray energy costs. If operated off of a coal-based grid, tankless electric water heaters would reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over a tanked system (although a heat pump water heater is even more effective in reducing emissions) [102]. The carbon footprint of tankless electric water heaters is much lower than that of systems with tanks, as it is in operation only when demanded. Tankless water heaters may be 99% efficient [103].

#### 3.8.2. Acquisition and 15-Year O&M Costs

The acquisition cost of an electric tankless heater is largely dependent on size, capability, and brand and may be larger than traditional tank versions; however, the acquisition cost for the installed unit was identical to the tank unit in this case study. Tankless units may also last 1.5 to 2 times as long as tank water heaters (20 years) and save 8% to 34% on water, depending on water demand; however, demand flow for multiple simultaneous operations must be evaluated prior to selection of a device [104].

Comparing the life cycle of a 50-gallon electric water heater with that of a tankless one requires some up-front assumptions. One study indicated that the life-cycle savings over traditional electric storage systems is \$3719 Australian dollars (about \$2500 US dollars) [105]. However, that study does not consider the possibility that all electrical power needed is generated by solar power.

The acquisition and installation costs for 2 × 50-gallon tank water heaters during initial construction was nearly \$3000 in the case study residence. Under coal-based grid power, the yearly costs are \$494 per tank or just under \$1000 for both systems; however, the case study residence relies on solar and thus avoids these costs. For tankless electric water heaters powered by PVS, the installation and acquisition costs are \$3000 for two units (high end) with zero annual costs and zero carbon emissions (other than solar gray power as discussed in the limitations).

The initial tanked systems installed were electric Marathon heaters with a lifetime warranty [106]. While there are likely labor costs associated with this warranty, we assume that they are nominal. Thus, operating and maintenance costs for standard water heaters are estimated at \$494 per tank per year for traditional construction with grid power, while the operation costs for tankless water heaters recharged solely by PVS are \$0. With identical acquisition costs and (assuming) zero maintenance costs due to warranties, the 15-year total costs are estimated at \$22,914 (traditional construction with standard tanked water heaters) versus \$3000 (tankless with 100% PVS). An assumption is that both systems will not require replacement during the 15-year horizon.

#### *3.9. Solar Arrays*

In a sustainable home located in semiarid regions, solar arrays are an obvious solution for producing energy requirements. This rural residence initially had installed a 7.25 kWh system (32 × 225 watt panels) with a Sunny Boy inverter (\$33,600 in 2011) and then subsequently added another 9.585 kWh system (27 × 355 watt panels, \$31,317 in 2018) with a Solar Edge inverter after home expansion and capitalization of the original solar power system.

#### 3.9.1. Environmental Considerations

From installation date until 31 January 2020, the initial 7.25 kWh system has produced 90.579 MWh of power in 35,212 hours of operation for 2.57 kWh per hour, saving 153,984 pounds of CO<sup>2</sup> emissions. The 9.585 kWh system has produced 25.86 MWh in about 18,240 hours since installation, saving 40,038.49 pounds of CO<sup>2</sup> emissions and resulting in only 1.4 kWh per hour. (The low result is due to installation in January and a month wait to replace the initial inverter (faulty) in January to February 2018).

The carbon dioxide avoidance by leveraging solar is significant over time. The footprint of solar is 6 g CO2e/kWh, while coal CCS is 109 g and bioenergy is 98 g. Wind power produces less emissions (4 g each); however, the rural residence location is a low-production wind area [32]. For 3500 kWh per month (or 42 MWh per year), the total annual difference in carbon emissions is 4.326 million g/CO2e.

#### 3.9.2. Acquisition and 15-Year O&M Costs

The initial cost of both systems was approximately \$64.917. After 30% federal tax credits, the total cost was approximately \$44,441.90. Initial break-even analysis is based on both acquisition cost and energy cost as if both systems were installed on the expanded house. During the six months of April through September, the residence produced or banked more power than consumed. From October through March, the residence consumed more power than produced. During this month, the residents consumed 1699 kWh and produced only 1226 kWh. There is, however, no delivery or cost of power charge, because during the previous months, the residents produced more than consumed. The total consumption estimate is then about 2925 kWh for a 4800 square foot house in a cool month. When averaged over a single year, total consumption is approximately 3500 kWh per month. This equates to between about 1167 and 1750 kWh per person or 0.73 kWh per square foot.

A non-solar house consuming 3500 kWh per month under traditional utility billing at \$0.07 per kWh (cost at locality) with a \$14.77 customer charge (utility company determined) results in an annual estimated cost of \$3117.24 (\$259.77 × 12). The same consumption with 100% solar runs at \$33 grid-tied fee × 12 months = \$396. Total costs over 15 years with 3% inflation per annum are then \$62,834 (grid electricity) versus \$54,480 (PVS).

#### 3.9.3. Qualitative Assessment

The PVS arrays are one of the best investments of the residence. There have been no uncovered maintenance costs; the systems are reliable. Coupled with the RWH system, the residence benefits from nearly all weather, gathering water from preciptiation and harvesting the sun during even partially overcast days.

#### *3.10. Electric Car Charging*

#### 3.10.1. Environmental Considerations

Electricity generated from PVS was used to charge an electric Nissan Leaf in the case study house. Additional panels were acquired directly for this purpose during the construction. Research suggests that battery electric vehicles (BEVs) may have higher GHG emissions than internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV) if powered by a grid (at least in China) [107]. Given this research, the only sure way that carbon savings are achieved is charging them through renewable sources.

#### 3.10.2. Acquisition Costs, 15-Year O&M Costs, and Residual

Assuming equivalent acquisition costs for a BEV and ICEV (~\$30,000 after tax credits), \$2400 annual gasoline and maintenance costs for the ICEV, \$1200 annual maintenance for the BEV, identical replacement costs at year 7.5 (~\$36,000 after tax credits), and residual values of 22% versus 7% for ICEV and BEV, respectively, results in total costs of \$107,770 (ICEV) and \$92,288 (BEV). (ICEVs retain about 45% of their value over 4 years, while BEVs retain barely more than 25% on average [6], so using geometric decay over 7.5 years results in about 22% and 7% residual value). This estimate includes 3% inflation for maintenance and gasoline.

#### 3.10.3. Qualitative Assessment

Unfortunately, early Nissan Leaf vehicles suffered from battery issues [108]. The owner divested after 3 years partially due to these issues. Improvements in the batteries of these vehicles as well as extended range models makes this vehicle an attractive option for minimizing gasoline and maintenance costs.

#### *3.11. Geothermal Heating and Cooling*

#### 3.11.1. Environmental Considerations

As part of the construction, the rural residence was equipped with a closed-loop, geothermal system (see Figure 4). Vertical, closed-loop geothermal units are heat exchangers that leverage the fact that the temperature 200' below the Earth remains relatively constant. Geothermal systems may save between 25% and 75% on energy demands [109].

#### 3.11.2. Acquisition and O&M Costs

The cost of the system including wells, unit, and ducting (complete) was \$26,500. The tax credit was 30% or \$7950, and so the end cost to the resident was \$18,550. ClimateMaster (the brand installed) estimates a \$1000 savings in electrical costs per year over an electric heat pump (\$3135 versus \$4169) [32]; however, PVS-powered systems have no directly attributable costs except for gray power. The system was replaced with a 5-ton, 18-seer American Standard Platinum heat pump unit in 2018 at a cost of \$16,255, over \$10,000 less expensive. (The reason for this replacement is discussed shortly). Assuming equal maintenance costs of \$600 per year, 3% inflation of O&M costs, the 15-year total cost for geothermal powered by PVS is \$30,644, whereas the cost for a heat pump and associated O&M is \$112,383 (grid-power).

#### 3.11.3. Qualitative Assessment

The system operated with limited success for seven years, as the heat exchange and unit were unable to keep up with greater than 100 ◦F (38 ◦C) temperatures in its South Texas location, despite multiple attempts to improve the system (including adding an additional 200' well for heat exchange). This system was the most disappointing, as evidence even post-installation suggested that such a system would be effective in all climates [110]. That was not the experience in this single case study.

#### *3.12. Generator or Other Backup System*

The residents sought an eco-friendly solar power storage solution (e.g., Tesla Powerwall or the Chinese BYD B-box 10). All options were expensive (between \$80 to \$110 per kWh storage per year for 10 years) with decay rates that generate lithium ion battery disposal concerns after 10 years for most products [111]. Since the storage technology is still developing, a 22-kW propane-powered back-up generator, a device sufficient to empower the entire house (Figure 4), was installed. In well or rainwater harvesting systems that leverage pumps, back-up power is necessary to retain water during electrical outages. Propane is a green fuel that, when burned, has nominal effects on the environment [112]. The 1000-gallon propane tank and generator are sufficient to maintain full power to house for about 14 days under reasonable utilization conditions. The cost for this generator, automatic transfer switch, propane tank, underground installation, and connections was \$19,668.00. (A large portion of expense

involved burying the propane tank in rocky terrain.) While included in the discussion, this item is not part of break-even or NPV analysis.

#### *3.13. Break-Even and NPV Analysis*

Sustainable construction can generate a breakeven for the pocketbook and for the environment. Figure 6 illustrates the cost comparisons of the sustainable construction techniques discussed in this paper. Costs are inflated 3% per annum and reflect the previously detailed acquisition and O&M costs. The first matrix in this figure is traditional construction without environmentally intelligent land use. The second reflects the rural residence as designed, and the third matrix reflects sustainable construction without geothermal for the particular locality and residence.

Looking at Figure 6, the break-even year for 2020 construction would be by 2026. The additional cost of sustainable construction is estimated at \$54,329, which is much lower than might be expected due to the tax credits associated with solar and geothermal. A 15-year NPV analysis is provided at 3% and 5% cost of capital. At 3%, the analysis suggests a 15-year NPV of \$334,355 (traditional) versus \$250,339 million (sustainable), for a difference of \$84K. At 5% cost of capital, that difference falls to \$63K due to opportunity costs of committing capital up front.

#### *3.14. Ongoing Sustainable Improvements*

All add-on construction to the rural residence included mini-split HVAC systems (both in-wall and in-roof systems). These systems have more upfront costs but are much more energy efficient, as they do not lose energy through ductwork. Further, they are now inconspicuous and highly effective [113]. Also, these systems allow for better compartmentalization of conditioned air, as they do not rely on a set number of zones. See Figure 4 for pictures of in-roof and in-wall systems installed in the residence. In new construction, these systems should be considered due to their efficiency and elimination of ductwork and other requirements.

Another new construction consideration is the use of wireless multigang light switches. These fixtures can minimize wiring requirements by using a single drop instead of multiple drops. With the advent of 5G, it might be possible to eliminate CAT6 wiring during residential construction in the future as well.



**Figure 6.** Color-coded break-even and NPV analysis.

#### **4. Discussion**

#### *4.1. Break-Even and NPV Analyses*

For this case study, the break-even analysis and ROI suggest that sustainable land use and construction efforts can benefit the environment and the bottom line, which is congruent with other research [114]. The initial up-front costs may be quickly offset by savings depending on construction options, but there are upfront costs that must be considered as found in previous research [115]. In the case study here, only seven years were required for breakeven, which is earlier than empirical simulation might have suggested [9], possibly due to synergistic effects of multiple interventions applied simultaneously. This timeframe might be reduced by selecting subsets of options such as energy efficient HVAC versus geothermal HVAC, as in the hybrid ROI option investigated. Aside from the economic considerations, the environmental responsibility issues are clear. Avoiding carbon emissions is responsible construction.

In the break-even analysis, there were several construction options that resulted in near-zero break-even time, including the use of engineered lumber, Icynene foam, and Energy Star doors and windows. Other options such as 100% PVS and the purchase of an electric car saw delayed break-even points. Some sustainable efforts never saw any breakeven, including the aerobic septic system. Geothermal proved ineffective and expensive based on residents' desires and requirements, which runs counter to other evidence suggesting its utility in office buildings in another semiarid climate (Madrid), which does not have quite the same temperature spread as the location in Texas [116].

The additional cost of sustainable construction for the research residence in this case is estimated at \$54,329, and the 15-year NPV analysis showed \$84K and \$63K savings at 3% and 5% cost of capital for sustainable construction, respectively. There may be a positive return on investment for intelligent land use, transportation, and construction. Tax incentives and education are still necessary to encourage smart decisions and incentivize individuals [117]. These findings help inform construction decisions for businesses and for individuals in this region.

#### *4.2. Environmental Findings*

Perhaps more importantly, there is a significant environmental offset for this type of construction. Based on reasonable assumptions, the construction of this house saved between 25 and 90 trees due to the use of reclaimed wood [9]. The carbon dioxide avoidance by leveraging solar is significant, although there is a break-even consideration based on economic and environmental trade-offs congruent with other research [118]. The total estimated annual difference in carbon emissions was 4.326 million g/CO2e for this research residence. Environmental effects of burning gasoline in a vehicle were reduced to near zero by powering a BEV via PVS, and associated savings were achieved as in other research [6].

Further, the total water offset per demanded gallon is 2 gallons of water per 1 gallon demanded. A traditional residence consuming 10,000 gallons would require 33,333 gallons of rainfall to supply the ground water sources, whereas a rainwater system would require only 13,333 gallons. In semiarid regions, that difference is important for sustainability and aquifer preservation [43,45]. This rural residence illustrates that smart land use and sustainable construction save resources.

Aside from the sustainable options discussed in this case study, there are many, many more that might be considered, particularly with engineered performance improvement of materials. One example of this is the use of spent coffee grounds to improve thermal insulation [119]. Another example is the use of a prototype hybrid steel and wood purlins for roof construction rather than pure steel [120]. Materials improvements are likely to reduce environmental impacts of residential construction.

#### *4.3. Policy Implications*

There are also policy requirements for sustainable construction. That policy push towards sustainable construction is evolving to a universal mandate with penalties for failure to comply. The prime example is in California, where a new law passed a solar mandate where all new homes

built after 1 January 2020 must be equipped with a solar electric system. That system must be sized that it will offset 100% of the home's electricity usage. This mandate is one aspect of the California Energy Commission's initiative to have 50% of the entire State of California's energy production be from a clean energy source by 2030 [121]. Continuing with the California mandates on sustainability mandates, California passed another law recently signed by Gov. Brown that imposes water usage requirements. The law states that all California residents will be restricted to 55 gallons/day water usage by 2022 and is reduced to 50 gallons/day by 2030 [122]. While both initiatives discuss the mandates, neither has shown the penalty for failure to comply or even specifics on implementation. What is clear is that the mandates on both electric and water usage are the wave of the future and appear to be only the start in California, with certainty that other states will adopt similar measures. A proactive approach leveraging the analysis presented here and elsewhere will help both builders and buyers.

#### *4.4. Limitations*

This is a single case study of a single rural residence, where some efforts were successful (e.g., solar power arrays and rainwater harvesting) and some were not (e.g., geothermal). The results for this single case study in a semiarid region are not generalizable to other regions. Further, land-use regulations vary from location to location, so what is achievable at this research location may be prohibited elsewhere. The case study is also limited in that complete cradle-to-grave life-cycle costs and impacts are not available for all components and that, as a case study, only one alternative technology was priced and investigated. For every category of construction, there are many available sustainable products. Where possible, we have documented environmental considerations; however, these are not the universe of effects.

Another major limitation of this study is that it does not include complete transaction costs (see [123–125]. Where possible, these are documented; however, they are nontrivial to estimate. Any final analysis should seek to improve these cost estimates.

#### **5. Conclusions**

#### *5.1. Key Findings*

This case study illustrates that proper rural residential construction and resource use can provide value to the consumer and reduce the impact of the built environment. There is a positive NPV obtainable for many eco-friendly construction options. A reasonable break-even expectation for sustainable construction options based on these construction requirements in this geographical area would be six years without geothermal HVAC, and the cost for the breakeven is \$54,329. The NPV suggested that the sustainable option was still the better choice at 3% and 5% cost of capital. Leveraging what works for both the environment and the consumer in a particular region requires dedication and focus of the residential construction industry.

Most important are the environmental offsets. By using sustainable building practices for new houses and renovations which are required in rural areas of Texas [56], carbon offsets and water conservation may be achieved, reducing the impact of the built environment on our planet. The savings for this single research property alone is estimated at 4.326 million g/CO2e annually. The effect of such sustainable building construction in rural communities may slow climate change.

#### *5.2. Future Research*

As a research residence, the design elements are not static. One element of future research includes adding lithium ion battery (LIB) backups for the PVS to achieve total grid separation. Understanding the feasibility, life-cycle costs, and environmental break-even of this effort would inform future engineering considerations, as evidence suggests LIB production has some carbon tail [126]. As part of future research, the team plans on evaluating the reduction of CAT6 Ethernet cables by adopting a true wireless solution and the reduction of electrical wire by using dual-gang wireless light switches and requiring only one wired component.

Aside from the residence interventions, future research will include a metanalysis of rural residential construction literature. Discovering best practices from multiple reports is important for generalizability beyond this case study. Sustainable construction options should positively affect the environment and the pocketbook.

**Author Contributions:** Conceptualization, L.F.; methodology, L.F., B.B.; validation, S.K., K.L.; formal analysis, L.F., B.B.; writing, L.F., B.B., M.B., K.L, S.K. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

**Funding:** This research received no external funding.

**Conflicts of Interest:** The authors declare no conflict of interest.

#### **References**


© 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

*Article*

### **Transformations in the Agricultural and Scenic Landscapes in the Northwest of the Region of Murcia (Spain): Moving towards Long Awaited (Un)Sustainability**

### **Ramón García-Marín \* , Cayetano Espejo-Marín, Rubén Giménez-García and Víctor Ruiz-Álvarez**

Department of Geography, University of Murcia, 30001 Murcia, Spain; cespejo@um.es (C.E.-M.); ruben.gimenez@um.es (R.G.-G.); victor.ruiz1@um.es (V.R.-Á.)

**\*** Correspondence: ramongm@um.es

Received: 3 July 2020; Accepted: 3 September 2020; Published: 4 September 2020

**Abstract:** Since the middle of the 20th century, irrigation in the southeast of Spain has displayed significant productive growth based on the intensive use of the scarce water resources in the area and the contribution of river flows from the hydrographic basin of the Tagus River to the hydrographic basin of the Segura River. Despite high levels of efficiency in the water use from the new irrigation systems, the water deficit has only intensified in recent years. The most dynamically irrigated areas (Campo de Cartagena, Valle del Guadalentín, Vega Alta del Segura and the southern coast of the Region of Murcia), were faced with a complex and trying future, resulting in numerous companies (agribusinesses) relocating to lease and acquire land in the northwest of Murcia to develop their intensive crops. The general objective of this article lies in the analysis of widespread landscape dynamics, and of agricultural dynamics in particular, in the rural environment of the northwest Region of Murcia (Spain). For this, an exhaustive analysis of the land cover and use transformations is carried out for the periods of time 1990–2000–2012–2018. The data studied come from the Corine Land Cover (CLC) project, carried out by the European Environment Agency (EEA). These spatial data are treated with geographical information systems (GISs) and represented by statistical and cartographic analyses and cross-tabulation matrices that indicate the dynamics of changes, loss and land gain. As the main result, we find that the areas occupied by new intensive irrigation on old rainfed farmland in the northwest Region of Murcia have increased in the last 30 years. Traditional irrigation is disappearing, and the environmental consequences (overexploitation of aquifers and decreased flows from natural sources), among others, are dire.

**Keywords:** rural landscape; intensive agriculture; landscape transformation; socioeconomic and environmental impacts

#### **1. Introduction**

Agriculture is the sector that consumes the most water and at the same time is the most affected by the scarcity of water in many places; it represents 70.0% of the world's freshwater withdrawals and more than 90.0% of its consumption [1,2]. Agriculture is responsible for just over 80.0% of the hydrological footprint in Spain [3]. According to United Nations forecasts, by 2030, freshwater resources will decrease by 40.0% [4]. This fact, together with the increase in the world population, could generate a global water crisis. In this way, policies must be directed towards the sustainability of agricultural activities and the reduction in water consumption by crops [5].

The southeast of the Iberian Peninsula is undoubtedly the climatic region in Spain where avant-garde agriculture is most significant [6–8]. Throughout the second half of the 20th century, and particularly over the last three decades, innovation and new technologies have made overcoming the disadvantages of the climate possible. Scarce and irregular rainfall have led to a shortage of its own water resources. Today, those who follow new agricultural production systems, whether in greenhouses or in the open air, with high-frequency localised irrigation, crave water brought in from considerable distances (The Tajo–Segura Aqueduct), but not rain in situ, which stains the fruit, favours pests or causes damage in greenhouses. Thus, from this perspective, the scarcity of rain becomes an advantage for this new agriculture [9]. However, the water deficit has intensified in recent years, as irrigated areas continue to increase [10].

The scarcity of water resources has predominantly been defined as an emergency situation in the Spanish Southeast, a climatic region with semiarid characteristics which is in agreement with an overall traditional approach to water policies. It is also true that more or less at the same time as the WFD (Water Framework Directive) was published, a new, albeit limited in scope, trend started emerging. This new approach integrates the scarcity of water resources into planning policies and incorporates risk assessment as one possible scenario. The context within which this new approach developed was no longer characterised only by the traditional water policy paradigm reflected in the LPHN (National Hydrological Plan Law) (Ley 10/2001, de 5 de julio), the most emblematic infrastructure of which was the so-called "Ebro water transfer" [11,12]. During the late 1990s, a regionalist paradigm—characterised by the political use of water resources by different regional governments (Region of Murcia, among other Autonomous Communities), and a new water culture paradigm, which aimed to change traditional policies—also emerged [13,14], facilitating a change in the general direction of water policy [15], as represented by the publication of the AGUA (Actions for the Management and Use of Water) programme in 2004 [16–18]. Without abandoning the traditional objective—the generation of new resources, the programme stresses the importance of water treatment, reuse and the construction of large desalinisation plants, instead of large hydraulic infrastructures that promote inter-regional conflict. Despite the different policies and actions, the demands for water resources exceed the supply generated [19].

New irrigation methods, carried out primarily in localised irrigation, position southeast peninsular Spain among the areas with the highest agricultural income in Europe [10], although the aforementioned cultivation procedures have had a major impact on the economy and the landscape [20].

This avant-garde agriculture, which includes horticultural and fruit production, has radiated from the coastline to inland areas [8]. Procedures of this nature, with the notable participation of agricultural transformation societies (agribusinesses), have caused radical changes in the rural landscape, agricultural structures and farming systems of the affected areas, with the spread of advanced techniques and the introduction of new species and varieties [20–22].

A noteworthy aspect to mention is the unfavourable environmental impact of avant-garde agriculture. In the areas analysed, one of the impacts with the greatest repercussions may be the deterioration of groundwater due to the overexploitation of aquifers [23], but the damage caused to the soil by the fertigation system is also notable [24,25]. A solution to the problem of the elimination of waste materials, especially plastics, due to their nonbiodegradable nature is needed [26].

Current water policy and how this unfolds into the concentration of water rights in the southeast of Spain is a particular manifestation of what Harvey [27] calls accumulation by dispossession. His thesis is driven by two observations: (i) first, the chronic tendency within capitalism to produce crises of overaccumulation (to absorb surplus, capital pre-existing but hither to untapped markets are targeted, or new markets created); (ii) second, because capital continuously seeks to expand, and it needs territory. In agreement with Harvey, the neoliberal compulsion to privatize, liberalize, and deregulate shows that a new round of "enclosures of the commons" is a clear objective of policies [28].

According to Ahlers [29], "water management involves not only an understanding of its quantity and quality, but of the complex relationship between the social, economic, and political context with its

biophysical materiality". Water scarcity may be induced by biophysical changes in the hydrological cycle [30] but is also a consequence of the historic and contemporary social relations and transformation in the struggle for control over water [31,32]. Human activity and nature form a process of negotiation, shaping landscapes which are dynamic and continuously contested because the process is constituted by, and simultaneously constitutes, the political economy of access and control over resources [33].

On the other hand, and according to Subra [34], we can consider some local conflicts as a global geopolitical conflicts. In many cases, local conflicts are the effect of ecological discourse, which constantly connects the local and the global levels (*think globally*, *act locally*). Of course, the dimensions of the territory concerned, or its scale, plays an important role. However, a geopolitical conflict occurring in a small territory could effectively be classified as external or international geopolitics in the most striking sense of the term, as is the case of the numerous conflicts generated in southeastern Spain due to the scarcity of water resources, the increase in the irrigated area and the constant demand for water resources from other hydrographic basins with an international character (Tajo river basin) [35–37]. In these cases, the economic value of a small territory could make it an international issue. The intensity of geopolitical rivalries over a territory therefore has little to do with its surface area, except in cases where the small size of the territory is used as an argument to justify a geopolitical strategy. In the case study that concerns us, the excellent quality of groundwater attracts international companies to expand their irrigated lands, since their traditional irrigated areas are under enormous ecological and sociopolitical pressure [38–40]. Land use changes towards intensive uses constitute one of the dimensions of global change linking the local, regional and global levels. Although the loss of natural ecosystems has been the main concern, the disappearance of traditional agrosystems and cultural landscapes as a consequence of urban sprawl, growth of infrastructures and intensive irrigation is receiving increasing attention [41]. However, to tackle these losses of ecosystem services, work must be done locally. In this sense, and according to Alcon et al. [42], to increase the acceptability of a more ecological policy would imply translating to the farmers good and simple information to reduce the gap between the real and perceived cost of the specific agricultural measures that should be established in each case.

The regional economic development model cannot be understood without taking into account irrigated agriculture and its binding relationship with water availability [43]. In this mainly semiarid territory, the need to guarantee efficiency in agricultural water uses has been a constant that has led to the progressive modernisation of irrigation systems [44]. However, the total demand for water in the Segura River Basin has increased to exceed the limits of existing natural resources, leading to a structural water deficit with an unsustainable trend [45].

The most apparent territorial consequence of the agricultural development discourse in the Region of Murcia is summed up by the rapid expansion of the surface area conditioned to establish irrigated crops [46,47]. New reconditioning for irrigation has been carried out in territories where low-intensity rainfed agriculture was practised or remained uncultivated, so that the new use requires important reconditioning for plains and foothills, creating an artificial topography according to its requirements. New intensive farming landscapes quickly replace traditional farming landscapes [48]. This is the case for the lands dedicated to open-air crops in sectors of the northwest of Murcia, which are particularly mobile.

That said, in the northwest of the Region of Murcia, not everything is reduced to physiognomic modifications, because they manifest new and varied socioeconomic dynamics. First of all, the new irrigated areas have very tough competition regarding traditional orchards, whose smallholding structures have not been able to compete with the new highly technical farms [49]. Gradually, the presence of large agricultural production and marketing companies, mainly Spanish capital, have established themselves. It could be thought, in principle, that these new agricultural economies contribute significantly to the growth in income and jobs, as has happened in other nearby coastal and pre-coastal areas. However, this has not been the case. The labour needs were initially met with native workers, but soon they were gradually replaced by contingents of immigrants (mainly

from the Maghreb and Ibero-America) residing in nearby cities such as Lorca, Totana, Fuente Álamo, or Cartagena who come by bus and return at the end of their working day [50]. Additionally, companies do not pay high taxes for the exploited farms, since for the most part the occupied lands continue to be registered as rainfed farms in the land register records.

#### *1.1. Objective*

The general objective of this study is to reveal the transformation of the landscape in the northwest Region of Murcia over the last three decades (1990–2018), especially as a consequence of the installation and increase in intensive irrigated crops. This study focuses, in essence, on analyzing the recent evolution of coverage and land use in the northwest of the Region of Murcia during the indicated period, the transitions and spatial dynamics between the coverage and land use, and the evolution of temporary irrigation crops.

#### *1.2. Justification and Interest in the Investigation*

It is clear that in this territory, as well as a continued growth of new irrigated areas, there has also been a disappearance of traditional orchards. In this sense, there is a recognition and a growing social demand regarding the need to conserve these traditional irrigation systems for their productive, environmental and cultural values [51–53].

Recently (March 2018), representatives of the four main original irrigation zones in the Segura river expressed their discontent to the then Minister of Agriculture for the creation of new intensively exploited farms that monopolise water resources in an opaque way<sup>1</sup> . This situation can collapse large areas of social irrigation, where family farms are abandoning agricultural activity.

The controversy generated in the northwest region about the disappearance and/or decrease in the river flows from their sources and springs also justifies the proposed investigation [23]. This dynamic is creating numerous conflicts with the farmers and the inhabitants of towns in the northwest of Murcia, who refuse to be "the emergency solution" of predatory regional socioeconomic development with its underground water resources [54,55]. Many examples of these protests come from ARECA (The Association of Irrigators of Caravaca)<sup>2</sup> . In a recently published article in "El Noroeste al Día" (Collaborative Portal of Northwest Murcia and the River Mula Counties (Murcia Region))<sup>3</sup> , this association expresses the following:

"The extraction of groundwater and the unstoppable illegal or uncontrolled transformation of rainfed to irrigated land, can destroy the sources and springs of the northwest. The overexploitation of the water reserves of the northwest of Murcia is already very evident, the consequence is the gradual decrease in the river flows in all its water sources, which have lost around 60.0% compared to the river flows existing in the early 1990s".

Furthermore, on 18 April 2018, in the regional newspaper La Verdad the following news was published: The farmers will create a Council for the Defense of the northwest of Murcia, whose objective will be to "safeguard the natural heritage"<sup>4</sup> . ARECA denounces that the illegal transformation of rainfed land to intensive irrigation "has been especially high since 1990. All in all, we could be talking about estimates of more than 2000 hectares, without any type of control".

We cannot forget that according to numerous models, the consequences of climate change could aggravate the deficit of available water resources. The effects of climate change are increasingly evident throughout the world, with regions experiencing water shortages presenting the greatest vulnerability.

<sup>1</sup> Summary of the manifesto in Diario la Crónica Independiente (22 March 2018). Available at: http://lacronicaindependiente. com/2018/03/segura-transparente-exige-a-la-ministra-de-agricultura-que-ponga-por-fin-orden-en-la-cuenca/.

<sup>2</sup> Caravaca: municipality of the Region of Murcia located in the Northwest region.

<sup>3</sup> Available at: https://www.elnoroestealdia.com/index.php?option=com\_content&task=view&id=31309&Itemid=253.

<sup>4</sup> Diario (Newspaper) La Verdad (18 April 2018): http://soydecaravaca.laverdad.es/actualidad/denuncian-transformacion-2000-20180418010843-ntvo.html.

The Mediterranean area is expected to be highly vulnerable given its unbalanced distribution between the availability of water resources and the existing demands [56–61]. In this context, the notable increase in irrigated areas in recent decades leads to an increase in the existing water deficit and numerous problems regarding the overexploitation of aquifers [61].

In short, it seems opportune that during the current hydrological planning cycle (2015–2021)<sup>5</sup> , efforts are increased to reverse these trends of expansion of the surfaces of new irrigated areas, forcing a reduction in the quantitative and qualitative pressures on bodies of water, and surface and underground water. The new post-2020 CAP (Common Agricultural Policy) should help meet the agricultural and environmental challenges in the short and medium term, to which irrigation must adapt.

#### **2. Materials and Methods**

According to Stake [62], there are two main ways to approach an investigation: one oriented to measurements and the other to experience<sup>6</sup> , both of which enrich the understanding of the reality analysed. Furthermore, as claimed by Salkind [63], the analysis of data should provide a broad picture of the phenomenon that is interesting to explain, without forgetting that understanding the descriptive nature of an event is as important as understanding the phenomenon itself—for this reason it is not possible to evaluate or appreciate the progress that has been made without understanding the context in which such events took place.

The progress made in recent years by the GIS—geographical information system—together with the opening of geolocated databases, has motivated the development of projects that seek to investigate changes in coverage and land use [64]. The detail and reliability achieved by spatial data, generated through satellite images, make it possible to carry out analyses of territorial and landscape dynamics with a very high degree of precision [65]. The availability of temporary series offered by the main territorial data sources facilitates the comparison of changes in the coverage and land uses experienced in a specific territory [66].

Among the different sources that disseminate geo-referenced spatial information, this study draws on territorial data provided by the European Environment Agency (EEA), in its Corine Land Cover (CLC) project. The reasons for the use of this remote information source are the homogenisation of coverage and the breadth and updating of the space–time series provided.

To analyse the different territorial changes, the project compares the evolution of land cover between different time periods (1990–2000–2012–2018). For this, the spatial information (in vector format) obtained from the CLC project was processed using GIS software (ArcGIS 10.3 and Qgis 3.6.2) (Figure 1). The initial step consisted of filtering the data from the CLC project and thus adapting it to the analysed study area. Once the spatial information corresponding to the study area was obtained, the representation of the data was transformed, going from a vector format (polygons that represent the coverage and land use) to a raster (a board of pixels that acquire a value depending on the coverage or land use that they symbolize). When this geoprocess was executed, the spatial delimitation the study area (in this case the northwest Region of Murcia) was available, fragmented into a mesh of regular cells of a pre-established size (10 × 10 m, 100 m<sup>2</sup> ).

Later, the 25 classes of land uses initially existing in CLC were grouped into six types in the reclassification process: (1) Artificial, (2) Permanent irrigation, (3) Temporary irrigation, (4) Other agricultural uses, (5) Forest and (6) Bodies of Water. In order to carry out a deep analysis, agricultural uses were divided into three different categories. Category 2 includes permanently irrigated land. Category 3 (temporary irrigation) includes vineyards, fruit trees, rice fields and olive groves. Finally,

<sup>5</sup> Royal Decree 1/2016 of January 8 (BOE of 19 January 2016), which approved the revision of numerous Hydrological Plans of different river basins, including the river basin zone of the Segura river. More information at: http://www.chsegura.es/chs/ planificacionydma/planificacion15-21/.

<sup>6</sup> Most commonly reported as quantitative and qualitative.

Category 4 (other agricultural products) covers rainfed agricultural land, grassland and heterogeneous agricultural areas.

**Figure 1.** Methodology for the treatment of spatial data (flow diagram). Source: Authors.

Finally, the evolution of the data (rasterized and reclassified) between the different time periods studied was obtained by contrasting them with the Semi-Automatic Classification Plugin (SCP) tool [67].

The information obtained from this process was expressed through the use of cross-tabulation matrices or transition matrices, a method proposed by Pontius et al. [68] to analyse maps of land use among two temporary periods in order to detect the most significant changes between the different land uses (Table 1).

The matrix represents the ground cover during the first period (Time 1) in rows, and those of the second period (Time 2) in columns. Pij represents the proportion of land use that changes from category i to category j. Pjj, on the diagonal, indicates the persistence ratio of category j, while the other cells indicate a transition from category i to a different category j. Furthermore, the losses are expressed as the difference of category i between Time 1 and Time 2. The gains are expressed as the difference of category j between Time 1 and Time 2.


**Table 1.** Cross-tabulation matrix.

The described methodology is configured as a powerful instrument of analysis that allows us to understand the spatial transformation experienced between two specific moments in time, and to undertake effective territorial planning policies.

The proposed methodology would help in any other area with similar problems to effectively understand the changes in land use that have occurred, and thus try to make the best possible decisions to achieve a most sustainable development.

#### **3. Study Area**

The study area has an area of 2378 km<sup>2</sup> . A series of geographic circumstances are decisive in explaining the outstanding diversity of the territorial landscape mosaic in the northwest Region of Murcia, its singularities and its ecological coherence. Undoubtedly, water is, along with large landforms (Figure 2), a defining and identifying element of the landscapes of the territory being studied. Forest landscapes show a greater stability. This is the result of special biogeographic conditions, defined by the location of the territory in an area of climatic transition between the Mediterranean and continental environments, which is combined with great complexity and orographic and lithological diversity. It is pertinent to highlight the ecological value of these forest areas, with vegetation adapted to the particular conditions of the territory. These mountainous lands constitute a fundamental part of the local identity and are highly valued by the resident population.

The area studied presents a very abrupt, steep relief in the area of the headwaters of the main rivers, with the presence of mountain systems that, in the extreme north and northwest, exceed 1500 m in altitude. The average altitude is high, standing at 1050 m above sea level.

The rivers and streams or existing torrents are not only channels of an important natural resource such as water, but they also constitute rich ecosystems with very diverse values: ecological, landscape, cultural, etc. These are mostly sporadic water courses, which bridge steep slopes and transport water after heavy rains. These river landscapes are shaped as intermountain corridors that facilitate the connection between different mountain areas or between these areas and the nearby plains. While maintaining an outstanding natural character, they host a greater number of interventions of anthropic origin.

It is necessary to highlight a recent process, but of clear importance to the landscape: the pressure of agricultural use on land occupied by natural vegetation. The ploughing of nonagricultural lands for plant crops constitutes a transformation that breaks with the dynamics of reduction in the ploughed area that has been seen in recent decades, due to the low profitability of rainfed crops (Figure 3). In fact, in areas not affected by the development of intensive irrigated agriculture, the most frequent have been processes of abandonment of the less productive terraces that have come to be colonised by natural plant formations.

**Figure 2.** Study area. The northwest Region of Murcia: altimetry, hydrographic network, municipal and provincial limits. Source: Authors.

**Figure 3.** Surface of almond cultivation in rainfed land (Archivel, Caravaca de la Cruz). An old semiabandoned farmhouse can be seen and, in the background, the Sierra de Mojantes (1615 masl). Source: Authors.

The study area has a large number of springs and seeps of water. The springs constitute fundamental enclaves in the configuration of the landscapes. They reveal the natural drainage points of the aquifers, frequently support wetlands and aquatic ecosystems, and have historically linked numerous settlements that have emerged under their protection, providing basic services such as a water supply to the population. In general, the quality of its water is excellent and the overexploitation of its aquifers has been scarce until a few years ago, unlike what happened with the coastal and pre-coastal hydrogeological units in the Region of Murcia, which are highly overexploited. This low overexploitation is due to the fact that the pressure and intensity of agricultural activities has been less than in other regional areas. Nevertheless, in recent years a clear increase in the irrigated area has been taking place (Figures 4 and 5), which causes a significant negative impact on the aquifers of this territory [69]. The protected natural lands (Site of Community Importance (SCI) and Special Protection Area for wild birds (SPA) (Figure 6) are of great importance in this territory, occupying a total of 691.0 km<sup>2</sup> (29.0% of the territory).

**Figure 4.** Surface of newly irrigated land (grapes) on the foothills of the Sierra del Gavilán, declared as a Site of Community Interest (LIC) (Archivel, Caravaca de la Cruz). The roads have been conditioned for the entry and exit of heavy load vehicles. Source: Authors.

**Figure 5.** Old agricultural area of a traditional vegetable plot conditioned for the intensive cultivation of lettuce and broccoli. Archivel, Caravaca de la Cruz. Source: Authors.

**Figure 6.** Spatial distribution of protected natural lands. (LIC: Sites of Community Interest, and ZEPA: Area of Special Protection for Birds). Source: Authors.

#### **4. Results**

#### *4.1. Recent Evolution of the Coverage and Land Use in the Northwest of the Region of Murcia (1990–2018)*

Regarding land use, three main types can be distinguished: natural, agricultural and urban-industrial. The main use is natural (forest), representing around 56.7% of the total area. It is made up of wooded, shrubby and subshrub formations. Agricultural use constitutes around 28.5% of the territory and can be found in the valley areas and in the alluvial fans and glacis of quaternary origin. The proportion of land dedicated to rainfed and irrigated crops is similar, although in recent years, as already mentioned, there has been a notable increase in irrigated areas. Currently, fruit trees (cherry, peach and apricot trees) are the main irrigated crop, as cereals and almonds are on rainfed land. Urban and industrial areas only represent 5.0%.

Firstly, the temporal evolution of land use distribution (Table 2) is presented with the aim of evaluating the transformations that have taken place and in which period they have been most intense. Between 1990 and 2000, the changes are insignificant. The most important changes took place between 2000 and 2012, coinciding with a decade of great economic expansion until the economic crisis started in 2008. During this time period, the most notable increases are shown in the categories of permanent and temporary irrigation, with the increase in the permanent irrigation area that doubles its surface being especially significant. One of the causes of this spectacular growth lies in the transfer of agricultural enterprises from the pre-coastal valleys to the interior lands of the Region of Murcia, taking advantage of the greater availability of water resources in this territory. Between 2012 and 2018, there is a transfer of surface area from permanent to temporary irrigation, which in turn is occupied by fruit trees.

The effects generated by the urban expansion of the pre-existing settlements, the projection of new residential and industrial complexes and, above all, the proliferation of large areas of intensive cultivation, has led to a soil mutation that must be analysed. It is important to highlight that the artificial surface is very small in this territory, in comparison with the nearby municipalities of the Mediterranean coast. In 1990, the northwest of Murcia had just over 10.0 km<sup>2</sup> of artificial soil. Three quarters of this small area was concentrated in the municipalities of Cehegín and Caravaca de la Cruz (Table 3).


**Table 2.** Temporal evolution of land use distribution (Corine Land Cover (CLC) 1990, 2000, 2012 and 2018).

Source: Corine Land Cover.

**Table 3.** Distribution of coverage and land use by municipalities (1990).


Source: Corine Land Cover.

The meager spatial dimension of the coverage made up of urban fabric contrasts with the development of agricultural and forest use. This discrepancy shows the marked rural character of the analysed land. In 1990 more than half of the regional land was occupied by forest mass, reaching 67.5% in the Moratalla municipality, 58.2% in Cehegín, and 52.5% in Calasparra (Figure 7).

In 1990, cultivated land occupied 44.4% (1056.5 km<sup>2</sup> ) of the total area. Among the different agricultural typologies, rainfed agriculture stands out (included in the category "other agriculture"), with a total of 886.8 km<sup>2</sup> . This type of cultivation represents 83.9% of all agricultural land and is most clearly developed in Caravaca de la Cruz, a municipality in which, at the end of the last century, occupied half of the local area (429.5 km<sup>2</sup> ).

The mutation of techniques and contributions in plantations meant that, between 1990 and 2018, the permanently irrigated cultivation area went from 24.4 to 59.6 km<sup>2</sup> , and the temporary irrigated area from 145.3 to 237.9 km<sup>2</sup> . This development occurred thanks to the occupation of land traditionally cultivated by rainfed plantations. Most of the rainfed land losses are located in the municipality of Bullas, which went from having almost fifty square kilometres occupied by this type of agriculture in 1990, to less than 10.0 km<sup>2</sup> in 2018 (a decrease of almost 80.0%) (Table 4).

**Figure 7.** Land use, 1990. Source: Corine Land Cover.


Forest 378.9 657.0 101.9 178.9 21.6 **1338.1**

**Total 857.4 953.1 184.6 300.8 82.0 2378.0** Source: Corine Land Cover.

Bodies of Water 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.7 0.0 **2.4**

**Table 4.** Distribution of coverage and land use by municipalities (2018).

On the other hand, temporary irrigation shows the greatest increase. Within this category, fruit trees represented the majority of the surface, with a total of 211.3 km<sup>2</sup> in 2018. These are distributed homogeneously in all the municipalities, although they have a greater presence in Bullas, Cehegín and Moratalla. Yet, rice fields make up an area of 8.1 km<sup>2</sup> , most of which is located in the municipality of Calasparra, which has one of the three protected designations of origin (PDO) for rice fields in Spain—the PDO Calasparra rice. Vineyards occupy an area of 9.3 km<sup>2</sup> , 84.9% of which are located in the municipalities of Bullas and Cehegín, and which are part of the PDO Bullas. Finally, olive groves have an area of 9.1 km<sup>2</sup> , with the municipality of Moratalla encompassing a larger area. Between the years 1950 and 1990, the area occupied by olive groves in the Region of Murcia was reduced considerably (−25.0%), but this decline had its lowest incidence in the municipality of Moratalla [70].

Bullas is the municipality with the greatest development of temporarily irrigated plantations, as it represents an increase of 321.4%. Calasparra provides an increase in the temporarily irrigated area of 180.3%, thanks to the presence of the Río Segura river and its traditional rice production (Figure 8). Cehegín also shows a notable increase in the temporary irrigated area (44.1%). Moratalla and Caravaca hardly increase their temporary irrigated area. The climatic and orographic conditions play a fundamental role in this distribution, since due to the higher average altitude, the municipalities of Moratalla and Caravaca are more vulnerable to the risk of frost.

Artificial land doubled its surface, forming the typology that experienced the second greatest increase in relative terms (91.3%). This fact explain, to a large extent, the development in the region of the marble limestone industry, with a dual purpose: extraction, and cutting and preparing the pieces for use by the construction sector [71].

−

The municipalities most affected by urban development are Calasparra (241.0%) and Caravaca de la Cruz (112.1%). However, one should not disregard the high burden of the artificial surface reached in Cehegín (6.5 km<sup>2</sup> ). Nevertheless, the Spanish real estate boom, between 1997 and 2007, had little impact in this territory, unlike what happened in the municipalities of the Mediterranean coast and the areas adjacent to the most dynamic cities (Murcia, Cartagena or Lorca).

The area occupied by forest cover and bodies of water has hardly changed. Reforestation, especially in Calasparra and Bullas, has contributed to a slight increase of 2.3% in the surface of this category. For its part, the aforementioned increase in exploitation to which water resources are subjected, together with long periods of low water and the moment in which satellite images are taken, by which spatial data are estimated, determines the slight decrease in the surface occupied by bodies of water (Figure 9).

**Figure 8.** Coverage and land uses 2018. Fuente: Corine Land Cover.

FIGURE 9 **Figure 9.** Evolution of the surface occupied by coverage and land use (1990–2018). Source: Corine Land Cover.

FIGURE 12

#### *4.2. Transitions and Spatial Dynamics between Coverage and Land Use*

In this section we contrast the changes that have occurred through a comparison by time pairs. Thanks to the analysis of the cross-tabulation matrix (Table 5), the spatial transitions that have occurred between the different territorial uses are examined: artificial (1), permanently irrigated agriculture (2), temporarily irrigated agriculture (3), other agricultural uses (4), forestry (5) and bodies of water (6). The figures reveal the total area gained and lost by each coverage, obtaining values that are represented cartographically.



Over the period which was analysed, the urbanised area which occupied 11.6 km<sup>2</sup> only lost 2.0 km<sup>2</sup> . In total, 50.9% of the captured artificial surface came from rainfed crops; 30.2% was forest mass; the remaining 18.9% was irrigated agricultural land (regardless of the frequency of water contributions).

Most of the spatial area acquired by forest cover (90.8%) belonged to rainfed plantations (100.4 km<sup>2</sup> ), both constituting the only categories that have yielded land in favour of the slight expansion of bodies of water (0.3 km<sup>2</sup> ). This water coverage continued to be stable, persisting with 88.0% (2.2 km<sup>2</sup> ) of the surface declared in the first year examined (1990).

The entire cultivated area has increased by 295.0 km<sup>2</sup> , and more than half is divided between temporarily irrigated land (142.5 km<sup>2</sup> ) and other crops (105.6 km<sup>2</sup> ). As previously mentioned, it is worth noting the incredible development of crops with temporary irrigation in the municipality of Bullas (322.1%), and permanently irrigated crops in Caravaca de la Cruz (117.5%). Within the category of temporary irrigation, fruit trees represent the majority of this increase, since between 1990 and 2018 there has been an increase of 91.9 km<sup>2</sup> . Calasparra (+358.2%) and Bullas (+314.7%) are the municipalities that show the greatest change. Regarding permanent irrigation, although there has been an increase in all municipalities, it should be noted that the municipality of Caravaca has the majority of this expansion; in this district or municipality there has been a spectacular growth in the surface of horticultural crops (lettuce, broccoli, chard, etc.), with very high water needs and the consequent overexploitation of aquifers.

The meteorological conditions marked by the altitude at which the western area of Moratalla is located, together with the large amount of surface that has some type of Site of Community Importance, SCI, and Special Area of Conservation, SAC, to determine the low presence of intensive crops, an aspect for which the use of traditional rainfed agriculture still prevails and there has been no significant transformations (Figure 10). In fact, the municipality of Moratalla, despite being the largest municipality, is the one that has lost the least area of rainfed crops. In this municipality, rural landscapes are a fundamental tourist resource [72]. In its territorial area, the cultivation of aromatic plants, such as lavendin or lavender, has boomed in recent years. These crops are part of the productive reconversion towards agroecology that is emerging in the northwest Region, which is constituted as a viable

alternative to sustainable management in the use of water for irrigation, in a context of a semiarid climate [73].

**Figure 10.** Gains from cultivated areas as a function of agricultural use (1990–2018). Source: Authors.

The notable expansion achieved by plantations with water needs derives from the change in the land exploitation system, with the transformation of 124.6 km<sup>2</sup> from rainfed land to temporary irrigation and 41.6 km<sup>2</sup> from rainfed land to permanent irrigated crop. The sum of these exchanges between agricultural areas causes the rainfed cultivation area to acquire the greatest spatial decline observed (272.6 km<sup>2</sup> ). This decline is especially noticeable to the south and east of the region (Figure 11).

**Figure 11.** Loss of cultivated area as a function of agricultural use (1990–2018). Source: Authors.

The corresponding graphic represents the total balance of profit and loss and reveals the true development of each one of the analysed categories (Figure 12). In this sense, we can see the huge decline experienced by the category labelled as the rest of agriculture (167.0 km<sup>2</sup> ). This collapse contrasts with the important gains made by the irrigation crop, especially when staggered (92.6 km<sup>2</sup> ).

*Land* **2020**, *9*, 314

FIGURE 9

FIGURE 12 **Figure 12.** Spatial dynamics of land cover and use according to categories (1990–2018). Source: Authors.

Finally, it is worth noting the significant increase in the area occupied by forest mass (29.7 km<sup>2</sup> ), the contained evolution of the artificial area (9.6 km<sup>2</sup> ) and the negligible spatial decline of the bodies of water (0.1 km<sup>2</sup> ).

#### *4.3. Evolution of Temporary Irrigation Crops*

Among the three agricultural categories studied, it is interesting to analyse the evolution experienced, during the last three decades, by the different temporary irrigation crops because it is the category that has experienced the most notable change. In spite of conforming an agricultural typology that lacks the need to maintain a permanent water supply, the water demands requested for the correct development of the production of each of the crops in this category are different. In this sense, the amount of water required to plant fruit trees, rice or vineyards differs from that required for olive trees, which is the type of crop that requires the least amount of water.

The fruit tree is the most widespread type of temporarily irrigated crop in all municipalities. In 2018, this tree category occupies about 88.8% of all the agricultural area temporarily irrigated (211.3 km<sup>2</sup> ). The development of this crop makes up, throughout the observed time series, practically all of the increase in ephemeral irrigated land (Table 6). Fruit trees are the temporarily irrigated crop that consume the most water and therefore their notable increase in the last three decades leads to an increase in the overexploitation of aquifers.

A third of the fruit trees planted in the study area at the beginning of the last decade of the last century are located in Cehegín. Although the representation exercised by this crop in this municipality loses weight over the years, the town with the largest area of fruit of the treated area (55.9 km<sup>2</sup> ) was found in 2018. Among the different municipalities where this crop is present, Bullas has experienced the most remarkable spatial expansion, with an increase of more than 33.9 km<sup>2</sup> (320.6%) between 1990 and 2018. One of the facts that contrasts the agricultural data of the two periods taken is the specialization that registers, at the beginning of the series, some municipalities in the production of one or two concrete cultures, and the multiproductive diverisfication that is appraised at the present time. Thus, practically all the temporarily irrigated crops in Caravaca and Bullas (1990) corresponds to fruit trees (Figure 13).


**Table 6.** Evolution of temporary irrigation crops (1990–2018).

Source: Corine Land Cover.

**Figure 13.** Spatial distribution of temporary irrigation crops (1990). Source: Authors.

Of the crops studied, rice is the one with the greatest need for water, so its territorial opening is very limited and is also limited to the plains of the Segura river only. In this context, rice practically occupies the same area. Thus, the availability and presence of the continuous course of water of the Segura river means that Calasparra and Moratalla constitute the only municipalities with this type of production. However, the production dynamics experienced during the last years by both localities demonstrates the setback that the culture of this food has undergone in Moratalla, and the development acquired in the regional rice municipality par excellence (Calasparra). The impulse noticed in Calasparra has not been sufficient, and the regional surface planted of rice has decreased more than 21.0% in the last decades. Something similar happened with the olive trees, a product that was initially taken care of almost exclusively in Moratalla and, in spite of expanding to the rest of localities (except Bullas), its presence decreased by 15.1% (Figure 14).

**Figure 14.** Spatial distribution of temporary irrigation crops (2018). Source: Authors.

Finally, the crop that occupies the smallest area in 1990 (vineyard) almost doubles its extension in 2018, spreading to all municipalities except Calasparra. The present production of vine has been diversified, with varieties oriented as much to the consumption of wine as of table grape. Regarding the fruit trees, the Cehegín host in 1990 had 88.0% of its soil covered by vineyards. The area occupied by this crop in this town increased to over 5.2 km<sup>2</sup> (2018). In spite of this, the representation that supposes the surface of this culture in Cehegín decreased until being placed slightly above 50.0% of the total sowed space.

#### **5. Discussion**

The spatial dimension of sustainability is generating increasing interest from both scientific and social perspectives. The northwest of the region has experienced, over the last three decades, an unprecedented process of territorial transformation [74]. The abundant underground water resources and the large extension of undeveloped rural land (in terms of economic profitability) has served as an element of attraction for a large number of agricultural and real estate companies [75]. The presence of companies dedicated to various sectors has generated fierce competition for the control and exploitation of a land used, historically, in the traditional cultivation of orchards and rainfed land [49]. The strength of intensive agriculture has displaced the traditional use of land.

The leasing of land by large agro-export companies encouraged the use of agricultural land, with the insatiable water exploitation of the area. This fact caused a change of scenery, with the indiscriminate spread of crops irrigated permanently and temporarily.

According to [76] the imbalance between the resources and the demand has been caused by the expansion of irrigated areas, the emergence of illegal new irrigated lands and pumping wells, the increase in energy cost and the bad management of water use rights by the public water administration. In addition, climate change and frequent droughts in this semiarid region aggravate the situation. As a consequence, many aquifers are being overexploited [77]. In this sense, the fulfilment of the "good ecological status" objectives set by the Water Framework Directive, with a deadline of 2027, will be a difficult task for water managers.

The increase in new irrigated land is not exclusive to inland areas near the coast [78,79]. Additionally, in practically all cases, farmers, experts and managers are trying to adopt measures to reduce environmental and social impacts, minimizing the loss of agricultural productivity, of course.

The general objective in the analysed cases is to create an integrated and integral management system of the aquifers. Integral management means that both supply and demand management are considered, including the socioeconomic and environmental perspectives. The concept of integrated management implies that the process must involve the majority of economic and social agents affected [80–82].

In the Region of Murcia, [83] developed a new irrigated lands dynamic model, that includes five sectors: Irrigated Lands, Profitability, Available Space, Water Resources and Pollution. The dynamic model simulates the environmental effects regarding water consumption with reference to aquifer levels, natural outflows through springs, piezometric levels and aquifer water salinity. The exploration of scenarios shows that current policies based on the increase in water resources do not eliminate the water deficit problem because the feedback loops of the system lead to a further increase in irrigated land and continuation of the water deficit. In the Southeast of Spain, the increase in irrigated areas does not seem to have an end.

Returning to our concrete case study, mountainous rural communities have traditionally managed their land extensively, resulting in land uses that provide important ecosystem services for both rural and urban areas. According to [84], land use intensification results in economic development but is not enough to prevent population loss, and has a negative impact on both the water supply and on aesthetic services (landscape). The authors conclude that more proactive management policies are needed to mitigate a loss in ecosystem services. They propose a simulation model that may facilitate the choice of land use planning policies, contributing therefore to a more integrative and sustainable management of rural communities.

#### **6. Conclusions**

Obviously, the areas occupied by new intensive irrigation on old rainfed farmland in the northwest Region of Murcia have increased in the last 30 years. In the Region of Murcia, there is a traditional ambition (a desire which coincides with the title of this article) for the continuous increase in irrigated areas. However, the success of the new installed fruit and vegetable model is not without contradictions and tensions that are expressed as negative environmental- and social-outsourced needs. In its industrial development, it tends to move towards the reduction in natural biodiversity, dislodging and eliminating forms of life not directly linked to productivity. Its expansionary trend have also led to an unlimited use of basic natural resources such as soil and water, generating social, environmental and political problems. The continuous growth of the water needs of the agro-industrial model, despite improvements in the efficiency of water use, is generating temporary deficits not noticed by traditional farmers until a few years ago.

The development of management tools that can harmonize the exploitation of water resources with the sustainability of the reserves is the objective that the administration and agricultural entrepreneurs must agree on.

Given this conflictive situation, it is necessary to propose strategies for the progressive reduction in these new irrigated areas with little social and environmental commitment. In this sense, we propose a series of criteria to identify where a strategy in irrigation reduction is necessary:


<sup>7</sup> The WEI index (Water Exploitation Index) is used as an indicator of the pressure that water extraction exerts on available water resources, and allows identification of the areas most likely to suffer water stress. This indicator is calculated as the quotient between the average annual freshwater withdrawal and the long-term average of the available resource. A result above 20.0% indicates the presence of water stress, and greater than 40.0% a strong competition for water with difficulty in maintaining associated ecosystems.


Finally, we believe that there is an urgent need to update the land registry of agricultural areas in order to carry out a fiscal adjustment of the lands transformed from rainfed land to irrigated and new farms that have emerged in recent years.

**Author Contributions:** Conceptualization, R.G.-M. and C.E.-M.; methodology, R.G.-M., R.G.-G., V.R.-Á.; formal analysis, R.G.-M., C.E.-M., R.G.-G. and V.R.-Á.; investigation, R.G.-M., C.E.-M., R.G.-G. and V.R.-Á.; data curation, R.G.-M., R.G.-G., V.R.-Á.; writing—original draft preparation, R.G.-M., C.E.-M., R.G.-G. and V.R.-Á.; writing—review and editing, R.G.-M., C.E.-M., R.G.-G. and V.R.-Á.; supervision, R.G.-M. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

**Funding:** This research received no external funding.

**Acknowledgments:** Authors want to thank anonymous reviewers for their suggestions, which have helped to significantly improve the manuscript.

**Conflicts of Interest:** The authors declare no conflict of interest.

#### **References**


© 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

*Commentary*

## **Sustainable Population Growth in Low-Density Areas in a New Technological Era: Prospective Thinking on How to Support Planning Policies Using Complex Spatial Models**

### **Eduardo Gomes 1,2,3**


Received: 12 June 2020; Accepted: 7 July 2020; Published: 8 July 2020

**Abstract:** Urban development is the result of the interaction between anthropogenic and environmental dimensions. From the perspective of its density, it ranges from high-density populated areas, associated with large cities that concentrate the main economic and social thrust of societies, to low-density populated areas (e.g., rural areas, small–medium-sized cities). Against the backdrop of the new technological and environmental era, this commentary offers insights on how to support spatial planning policies for sustainable urban growth in low-density areas. We propose the integration of technological drivers such as Internet networks, telecommuting, distance-learning education, the use of electric cars, etc. into the complex spatial models to project and thus to identify the best locations for urban development in low-density areas. This understanding can help to mitigate the disparities between high- and low-density populated areas, and to reduce the inequality among regions as promoted in the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development Goals.

**Keywords:** low-density populated areas; sustainable urban growth; technological era; complex spatial models; land-use planning

#### **1. Introduction**

Human settlements—i.e., locations where people live, work and/or study—are the result of an interrelated set of dimensions [1]. To recognise the uncertainties surrounding future human settlements, different approaches have been used. Among these approaches, we find that complexity science and geography can contribute to a better understanding of where people will live in the future by providing answers to unpredictable changes and describing how local interactions between individuals in the system shall lead to emerging patterns over time [2–4].

Complexity science, which has been around for roughly seventy years, has been steadily advancing in the past few decades. It integrates interdisciplinary subjects, such as fractals— describing and analysing irregularities [5]; self-organising systems—learning the interactions inside the system, leading to the spontaneous emergence of an intelligible spatial structure without exterior coordination, where there is no hierarchy of command and control, and neither internal or external agents to monitor the process [6]; chaos theory—studying the stability of procedures in response to changes in scale [7]; and cybernetic systems—investigating process regulation as a complex system in an accelerated socio-technological evolution [8].

Complexity science and geography have come together to describe, understand, and explain connexions among space-time patterns at multiple scales, linking interactions to nonlinear processes [9]. Hence, they have helped to describe and understand system dynamics, to predict future human behaviour, and they have the advantage of being simple approaches that can incorporate complex analysis. Every stage incorporates complex analysis, involving dynamics, relationships, emergence, and unpredictability. Finding further possibilities for coupling complexity science and geography is one of the most significant challenges that spatial planning needs to face in the future [10]. This engagement has increasingly sparked interest and new knowledge has been established to explore interconnected relationships, unpredictability, and multi-dimension, multi-scale, multi-time, and non-linear thinking [11].

In the past few years, the use of computer simulations employing this two-pronged theoretical approach has been increasing due to its low cost, high speed, and easy reproducibility [12]. Currently, there are plenty of studies indirectly forecasting the growth of human settlements by projecting urban areas, particularly in high-density populated areas contexts, by using complex spatial models, e.g., Fuglsang et al. [13], and Clarke et al. [14]. Nevertheless, in a technological and environmental era, where people can increasingly decide where to live and work [15], and to face to one of the most significant challenges from the spatial planning perspective, the territorial population imbalance between low and high-density areas, there is a lack of the critical thinking needed to study low-density populated areas, identifying different drivers to promote the sustainable urban growth in these areas. Therefore, this commentary casts a light on how using complex spatial models can be effectively applied in land-use planning by promoting new territorial strategies to mitigate the imbalance between high- and low-density populated areas, as support to predict future urban areas growth in low-density populated areas, and to find the most suitable areas. (Figure 1).

**Figure 1.** Coupled analysis: low-density populated areas, modelling sustainable urban growth, and land-use planning strategies.

#### **2. Population Dynamics**

By 2050, around 70% of the world's population is expected to live in urban areas [16]. Historically, this growth has been associated with urbanisation processes linked to the socio-economic development of the countries [17]. Currently, North America is the region where the most people live in urban areas (82%), followed by Latin America and the Caribbean (80%), and Europe (73%). By country, China has the most prominent urban population (758 million), followed by India (410 million), and the United States of America (263 million). By metropolitan region, Tokyo is the world's largest one with 38 million inhabitants, followed by Shanghai (34 million), and Jakarta (with almost 32 million inhabitants) [16]. Urban population worldwide has overgrown since 1950, from 746 million to 3.9 billion in 2014, and by 2050, it is expected to reach 6.3 billion, where approximately 90% of this growth is expected to occur in Africa and Asia.

Population growth in urban areas throughout history, in different places and stages, has fluctuated both in terms of core and ring. Theoretically, the different stages occur based on four major cycles [18]:


These four stages have been identified in different urban areas around the world as a result of a complex interaction between anthropogenic and environmental drivers [19,20], and they have been recognised with different dynamics, morphologies, densities, and spatial locations. For instance, the urbanisation process has been associated with contiguous urban growth around cities, and along highways and roads, connecting suburbs in different forms [21] such as enlarged cities, metapolis, city-regions, and periurban regions. Likewise, from the perspective of morphology, some characteristics have been recognised, such as monocentric (distributed over extensive areas), dispersed (scattered cities), linear (with linear forms of agglomeration), and polycentric urban regions (multiple cities connected) [22]. The urban growth in some of these urban forms leads, frequently, to the emergence of urban sprawl [23], which is defined as a low-density dispersed development outside the compact urban area and beyond the edge of service and employment [24]. Batty [25] defined it in three interconnected concepts of spatial dynamics: the decline of central or core cities; the emergence of edge cities; and the rapid suburbanisation of the peripheries of cities. On the other hand, Torrens [26] refers to it as low-density growing areas along the fringes of metropolitan areas, characterised by their compactness and dispersion. These areas are often identified as the urban expansion into suburban areas and characterised by unplanned [27], uneven growth [28], contiguous suburban growth [29], mixed uses [30], scattered and leapfrog development [26], strip or linear development [31], poly-nucleated nodal development, and both as a state, and a process [32]. Behind these morphological and dynamic changes, different drivers have been identified as the main reasons, such as policy interference and social organisation changes, industrialisation, infrastructure, and a cultural, technological, and/or socioeconomic boost [33].

The urban growth process has implications for land-use sustainability, both from the socioeconomic and environmental perspective [34–36], and they can be both negative and positive. Among the many impacts, the negative ones may be the undesirable effects on public health and quality of life [37], urban pollution increase [38], greater dependence on cars [39], spatial fragmentation [40], and loss of farmlands [41]. The positive ones may be the sense of community between inhabitants [42], more living space [41], decreasing crime rates [39], and the fact that fragmented urban growth has been perceived as an economic expansion [28].

Contrary to the urbanisation–suburbanisation process, exurbanisation represents the mobility of people from large urban areas into rural areas [43]. Exurbanisation as a concept was introduced by Spectorsky [44] and is defined as the ring of wealthy rural communities inhabited by urban professionals, where urban and rural activities are interconnected, and the relocation of residential areas, services, industries, logistic centres, and high-tech zones is the result of a trend towards de-concentration [45]. It represents the area outside the contiguously built-up areas of large cities, outside metropolitan regions, where rural areas are interwoven with small-medium sized cities, and people live by maintaining their urban income [43].

These processes have been led to land-use and land-cover changes and they have been triggered by driving forces. The concept of driving force become well-known in landscape ecology during the 1990s, which was defined as the processes responsible for the landscape changes [46]. Therefore, it can be categorised into the three following stages:


Many drivers influence land-use transitions, and they are the result of land supply and demand, affecting its patterns, structures, and functions. Some studies have contributed to describe the effects on landscape change [33], and its complex interaction processes [46]. There are plenty of driving forces that may be responsible for those transitions. Table 1 reviews some of these key drivers, from global to local scale.


**Table 1.** Global, national, and local driving forces.

Worldwide, landscape has been experienced significant land-use changes. They have been encouraged by different drivers such as political reasons, cultural history, land reforms, and enhanced technological, as well as diverse institutional and economic drivers [33]. The population growth and the need for cropland, grassland, and forest have led to a high level of land-use and land-cover changes. At the same time, spatial patterns of urban development have registered significant changes over the last decades, especially from the fringes of large cities, which have registered high levels of land-use changes from natural and semi-natural areas into artificial land, mostly to residential and tourist settlements, industrial, and commercial surfaces.

Therefore, the understanding of different urban development processes is relevant. The study of sustainable urban growth in exurbanisation processes can encompass multiple disciplines [55] and may be a central key for land-use management to mitigate the disequilibrium between low- and high-density populated areas, by promoting the sustainable urban growth in low-density populated areas. Some of these disciplines may be those related to complexity science and spatial planning to define better policy priorities and endorse inclusive and equitable development [56,57].

#### **3. Complex Spatial Models**

In the interpretation of urban and population dynamics, different models and methods have been used in the scientific literature. Some of them, such as the classical geographic models have in common the study of interaction, diffusion, migration, and location, identifying the who, what, why, and where. They have been applied in urban economics and social physics, e.g. Von Thünen's model, Weber's model, Walter Christaller's central place formulation, Alonso's model, the gravity model of spatial interaction, Hagerstrand's model, and Tobler's law. The majority of them share the principles of complexity science, which are useful to describe how local interactions between individuals in a system can lead to emerging patterns over time [2].

In the 17th century, René Descartes argued that 'nothing comes out of nothing', and this quote describes very simply how complexity science can be understood. Nevertheless, there is not a single definition for complexity science and there is no consensus about it [58]. This is partially since complex system theory itself was only properly recognised in the 1990s [59]. However, it is agreed that complexity science corresponds to a system where a set of entities, processes, and agents interact over an extensive network with no central control [60]. Local interactions between agents and the environment can result in unexpected and unpredictable behaviour at the global level in a new bottom-up approach [61]. These local or global interactions may lead to positive and negative responses that can influence the state of the system [62].

Self-organisation, nonlinearity, and order and chaos were the fields that gave rise to complexity science. In self-organisation, the interactions inside the system lead to the spontaneous emergence of an intelligible spatial structure without exterior coordination, where there is no hierarchy of command and control, neither internal nor external agents that monitor the process [6]. In nonlinearity there is a continuous and discontinuous change, and, the cause–effect relation is disproportional [63]. Lastly, order and chaos is related to unpredictable behaviour in a system in which agents interact randomly with other agents, rather than being planned or controlled [9].

The complex systems evolution often comprises disconnected time-scales. The disconnection or transition is the consequence of an aggregation of techniques of changes, since collective behaviours and relations, and physical, economic, or social configurations cause irreversible changes in a system. Four stages of stability transition have been identified:


These multi-stages provide a straightforward interpretation of what will occur throughout a transition process. The conceptual theory proposes a cyclic pattern, a stabilisation stage, and what could be the predevelopment stage for the next development stage.

Complex systems consider that connexions and interdependencies are challenging to describe, predict, and manage [64], and they are the result of collective behaviour. Complex systems are more than the sum of individual actions [58], and for a system to be called complex, its components have to be self-organised, and it has to be less dependent on environmental actions [65], exploring dynamic systems in a broad and multi-disciplinary context.

Complex systems studies are increasingly used in natural and social sciences and provide a powerful tool with which to capture evidence about the world [66]. More recently complexity science has been studied in policy and evaluation, more specifically in the understanding of collective decision-making [67]. This interconnection has been supported by modelling techniques, in which they have been used to solve complex problems, integrating empirical data, entities, and relations among objects. Models can reproduce experimentally-observed real systems (real world) and can be divided into space and time. In addition, they represent an abstraction of the world and they can be described into three different types:


(iii) the hybrid model, which represents a combination of both deterministic and stochastic models. They are used in analysis, optimisation, synthesis, gaining, and in the comparison of alternative systems.

Complex model simulations can help to explain and predict geographic phenomena [69], and they have been used from a new perspective of spatial simulation modelling, to incorporate an accurate representation of geographic space [70–72]. They have been integrated an object-based and spatially-explicit approach linked to complex systems dynamics [73], allowing better understanding of the spatiotemporal phenomena by modelling human behaviour [74].

Complex spatial modelling represents an advance of geographic information science that has contributed to an efficient reflection on new space perceptions [75,76]. Predicting and assessing future land-use trajectories enables identification of their causes and consequences [77], involving a multidisciplinary evaluation [78], and integrating a broad range of biophysical, demographic, and socioeconomic drivers [79,80]. Currently, there is a variety of complex spatial models based on different empirical techniques, such as equation-based models, system models, evolutionary models, genetic algorithms, cellular automata (CA), artificial neural networks (ANN), and agent-based models (ABM). These last three, have been among the most used in modelling land-use and land-cover changes. CA is defined by cell space, timestep, cell states, cell neighbourhood, and transition rules [81]; ANN are based on a machine learning system and inspired by human brain neurons structure [82]; and ABM enable the reproduction of human actions such as cognition, communication, and learning [83].

These models have been used to simulate land-use dynamics, identifying driving forces for those changes [84], and capturing the behaviour of individuals, integrating simple rules but incorporating complex behaviours. Table 2 shows some examples that combine CA, ANN, and ABM in the study of land-use cover changes.


**Table 2.** Land-use models based on CA, ANN, and ABM.

Combining different geographic models allows us to manipulate and create relationships between spatial data, and to integrate deterministic and stochastic predictive analysis to establish artificial relationships between different spatial data [92]. As a result, these models can create spatial knowledge that can subsequently be used as a support for spatial decision-making [93,94].

#### **4. Land-Use Planning**

Through the complex spatial models' outcomes, land-use planning can support better-planning practices [95]. It helps us to identify alternatives for land use and adopt the best land-use options, allocating land uses to meet the environmental, social, and economic needs of the population while preserving future resources [96]. It incorporates socioeconomic trends and physical and geographic elements. Land-use planning is a public policy that describes and regulates the use of land to support local development goals and creates legal and administrative instruments that support the plan to define land allocation, zoning, and density of construction. Land-use planning also comprises the anticipation of the need for changes as well as responses to that need, employing strategies to deal with territorial elements, e.g. transport, commercial, industrial, residential, and economic growth, and mitigating and adapting to climate change, as well as protecting people from natural disasters. These strategies must be selected taking into account their efficiency, guarantee equity, safeguard important requisites such as food security, employment, and recognise the current needs of the population, while still preserving resources for future generations [97].

The best principles for land-use planning are those that both decision-makers and stakeholders/ population can debate, identifying the highest consensus on the goals of a specific territory, as well as those that incorporate the largest development vision (larger scale) for the locality (local scale). At a larger scale, land-use planning, in many cases, establishes priorities by balancing the competing demands for land from sectors such as the economy, tourism, housing and public amenities, road network, industries, as well as wildlife preservation. At the local scale, land-use planning should capture local stakeholder knowledge and contributions, as well as local actions [98]. From the perspective of the mitigation of population distribution imbalance, in a region or country, spatial planning measures can be taken at larger and/ or local scale and should encourage sustainable urban development in low-density populated areas.

#### **5. How to Support Planning Policies to Mitigate the Territorial Imbalance between Low- and High-Density Areas in a New Technological Era?**

While new planning standards such as territorial cohesion or the reduction of inequality within and among countries (as promoted in the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development Goals) have been encouraged, the increasing socioeconomic distance between rural or small–medium sized cities and large cities has been one of the significant planning challenges [99]. It was found that the lack of effective spatial planning has resulted in uncoordinated strategies and has led to a territorial population imbalance in some regions of the world. Therefore, the study of exurbanisation processes may be useful to identify alternative spatial scenarios; propose and point out guidelines to mitigate urban growth pressure in large cities; and create incentives for people to live in rural areas or small–medium sized cities.

The principle of people's migration from large cities to low-density populated areas related to technological advances has already been discussed by several authors in the past. In the 1990s, Frances Cairncross published a book anticipating "The Death of Distance", in which Cairncross argued that with technological advances we will see a migration of people from urban to rural areas. However, more than 20 years have passed, and this transformation has not yet occurred. In 2012 Enrico Moretti, opposing the idea of Cairncross, argued in his book entitled "The New Geography of Jobs" that the death of distance is a myth. In 2018, this idea was corroborated by Joe Cortright in his article entitled "IoT: The Irrelevance of Thingies", in which Cortright defended that "people and social interaction, not technology, is the key to the future of cities". Partly, we think that the opinion of these both authors is valid (from the premise that large cities will continue to grow), however, we think that with the most recent technological advances, particularly related with the advances on the Internet (e.g. 5G), and with more powerful computers, that new settlements in low-density areas can emerge due to these new advances. In an article recently published by Michael Batty (May 2020), entitled "The Coronavirus Crisis: What Will the Post-Pandemic City Look Like?", Batty argues that the "low-density urban sprawl

and new communities far from the central city" can be a new reality in the near future [15]. This subject is even more relevant when we are at the beginning of the third decade of the 21st century and are facing new global pressures, such as socioeconomic, climatic, and health challenges. In an era when the divide between high-density populated areas and low-density populated areas has been increasing, new approaches to study this phenomenon are needed. They can encompass new technological drivers such as good Internet access, which is directly connected with telecommuting and distance-learning education (behind the migration from large cities to rural or small-medium sized cities) by integrating it in the complex spatial models approaches, and thus promoting better land-use strategies. Therefore, a concept derived from exurbanisation is proposed. Based on the most recent technological era, where the notion of physical location is changing, the concept of 'cyber-exurbanisation' is proposed. It combines the terminology of 'cyber' or 'cyberspace'—i.e., a non-physical space where people can remotely access a network of information technology—and 'exurbanisation', which represents the migration of people from large urban areas to rural and/or small–medium sized cities. Based on this new opportunity, complex spatial models may play an important role by identifying in a region or country, outside large cities, how, why, when, and where people can live in the future.

Throughout human history, different stages in terms of innovation, technology, culture, and socioeconomic transformations have developed worldwide. The first stage recognised was the industrial revolution, when human labour started to be replaced by machines; the second stage was related to mass production using electric power; the third was associated with informatisation based on computers and the Internet; and the fourth has been linked to artificial intelligence, cyber-physical systems, and the Internet of Things [100]. Additionally, and more recently, some authors have mentioned sustainability as the new revolution that has emerged in the past few years [101]. Sustainability has been studied by the scientific community from different perspectives, such as pollution in cities [102], traffic jams [103], overcrowded cities [104], and food security [34]. In this new era of environmental concerns and technological advances, new lifestyles and new job opportunities have emerged. This era has created new opportunities—one of the most relevant opportunities for people working in a growing number of jobs is the possibility of deciding where they want to live. Therefore, different challenges, opportunities, strengths, and weaknesses are being faced in urban living.

From the socio-economic and technological perspective, there are plenty of drivers that may be responsible for migration movements from large cities to rural areas, or small–medium sized cities, such as housing prices, industry 4.0, telecommuting, distance-learning education, Internet, electric cars, aerial vehicles, and digital medicine, health, and therapeutics. They have all been recognised as drivers to interpret these future human settlements.

Currently, one of the most critical topics related to large cities worldwide is the supply/demand imbalance in the housing market. As a result, housing prices have soared [105]. In 2019, Hong Kong, San Francisco, New York City, Zurich, Paris, and London were ranked as the most expensive cities to buy or rent a home [106]. In some of these cities, middle-class families have lost the power to live inside their boundaries since their disposable income has not followed the same growing trend. This situation has been forcing many people to migrate out of these large cities over the past few years [107] and can contribute as one of the main push factors that encourage people to move from large cities to a 'cyberspace' located in a rural area and/or a small–medium sized city.

With the paradigm of industry 4.0, introduced in the early 2010s [108], new challenges are being faced worldwide. One of them is related to digital and technological employees that have been allowed to work and study remotely [109], and thus they are free to decide where to live [110]. A new technological generation of staff using the capability of the cyberspace has been developing in the past few years. Some technological advances in Internet connection, such as new fibre-optic technology [111] and 5G Internet [112], have increased Internet speed and coverage worldwide. Companies such as Google, Facebook, Airbus, Boeing, and SoftBank, have been working in projects targeted at spreading the Internet to the most remote populated areas worldwide employing satellites, drones, balloons, and airships. Consequently, these technological signs of progress have led us to believe that physical

distances will be blurred in the near future, allowing people to access the Internet for personal or work purposes in the most remote areas in the world.

Equally as fast have been the recent developments in mobility, particularly in the market of electric cars to transport people, and in the market of aerial vehicles (e.g., drones) to transport goods. These advances have contributed and will further contribute to reducing environmental impacts by cutting CO2 emissions; lower economic costs by decreasing maintenance and production costs [113]; and increase the mobility of people, goods, and products [114]. Additionally, some other drivers, which do not depend on a person's location, will contribute to reducing the isolation of areas outside large cities, such as digital medicine, health, and therapeutics (allowing practitioners to increase the early identification of diseases) [115]. Therefore, these mentioned drivers can directly or indirectly play a relevant role in the emergence of new inhabitants in rural and small–medium sized cities (out of large cities) in the near future, and they may later shape the new forms of human settlements.

Then, we argue that, apart from the widely used socioeconomic, political, and environmental explanatory variables in the complex spatial models' analysis, we need to integrate these new technological drivers in these analyses. This is even more evident when we are facing, particularly in recent years, increasingly improved technological development. This will allow the projection of a sustainable population growth in low-density areas and in that way, it will allow the demonstration of better alternatives for urban growth and thus better anticipation, interpretation, assessment, and mitigatation of the impacts of the spatial location of future human settlements.

This understanding may be helpful to some governments worldwide, in which they set out to mitigate the imbalanced population distribution in a region or a country; to strengthen territorial equity and territorial cohesion; promote decentralisation of state functions; and to promote a polycentric urban system by increasing the number of cities with supranational polarisation [116]. Thus, anticipation of a better sustainable urban growth in low-density areas can contribute to the creation of better land-use planning strategies; contribute to land-use sustainability [117], and the promotion of territorial cohesion in a country or region.

#### **6. Conclusions**

Planning strategies are focused on opportunities, organisational strengths, and framing processes. These strategies support decision-makers by enabling them to use skills that will lead to better decisions about future actions [118]. With the help of complex spatial models, it is possible to anticipate and understand future land-use dynamics, and to create land-use strategies accordingly [53,119]. In the past two decades, the majority of studies that deal with urban and population growth prediction, complex spatial models, and spatial planning, have analysed urbanisation and suburbanisation processes in large cities [68]. However, these analyses still lack the combination of these three dimensions for the study of exurbanisation processes in low-density populated areas.

Large cities are expected to keep on growing worldwide. However, a 'cyber-exurbanisation' process can contribute to the mitigation the population imbalance between large cities, with high-density populated areas, and rural areas and small–medium sized cities, with low-density populated areas. The future development and advance of some technological drivers and the desire of some people to live in a place with natural amenities and idealised lifestyles can promote new locations where people wish to live, creating new forms and new human settlements.

Urban population growth is the result of a complex process and represents the consequence of interactions in space and time between environmental and human dimensions [120]. Complex spatial models can provide an epistemological approach to enable us to better recognise it. Furthermore, it can help planners in the decision-making process to clarify unpredictable conditions, to identify, in time and space, plausible future images, and ensure a better quality of the living environment [121], identifying the valuation of different land-use options and socioeconomic settings. Thus, coupling complex spatial models, by creating spatial scenarios of future growth of human settlements, with

land-use planning policies can better indicate alternatives for future population spatial allocation, and thus mitigate the population imbalance between low- and high-density populated areas.

This commentary can be valuable to create sustainable development strategies for understanding future land-use uncertainties. Moreover, it endeavours to examine directions for future scientific research, and we believe it will further help researchers and decision-makers to better interpret future human settlements based on the new era of technological and environmentally sustainable dimensions.

**Funding:** This work was developed within the Lithuanian National Ecosystem Services Assessment and Mapping (LINESAM), which has received funding from European Social Fund project LINESAM no. 09.3.3-LMTK-712-01-0104 under a grant agreement with the Research Council of Lithuania (LMTLT).

**Conflicts of Interest:** The author declares no conflicts of interest.

#### **References**


environments: The role of black crusts formed on historical constructions. *J. Clean. Prod.* **2020**, *43*, 118594. [CrossRef]


© 2020 by the author. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

*Article*

### **Rururban Partnerships: Urban Accessibility and Its Influence on the Stabilization of the Population in Rural Territories (Extremadura, Spain)**

### **José Luis Gurría Gascón and Ana Nieto Masot \***

Department of Art and Territorial Sciences, University of Extremadura, 10071 Cáceres, Spain; jlgurria@unex.es **\*** Correspondence: ananieto@unex.es

Received: 22 June 2020; Accepted: 28 July 2020; Published: 30 July 2020

**Abstract:** The process of population concentration in cities is a worldwide phenomenon—not yet finished—which has led to a widespread rural exodus and abandonment of rural areas. In Spain it occurred very abruptly from 1960, leaving numerous population centers abandoned in the northern half of the country. It is the so-called "empty Spain". This problem has recently transcended from the local to the European level and has become part of all political agendas such as "the fight against the demographic challenge", which the European Commission will finance in the next programming period 2021–2027. However, retaining the population in rural areas is a very complex problem that is difficult to solve. The aim of this article is to show that a polycentric system of towns, well distributed throughout the territory—as happens in Extremadura—has sufficient capacity to stabilize the population in the rural environment and is a viable and global alternative to the demographic challenge through the rururban partnerships and the integrated territorial investments. This article studies, as an empirical reality and demonstration effect, the autonomous community of Extremadura, an inland region bordering Portugal, in the southwest of the Iberian Peninsula, which has no abandoned nucleus and still maintains 50% of its population in rural areas, compared to a national average of less than 20%.

**Keywords:** accessibility; GIS; partnerships; population; rural territory; territorial planning

#### **1. Introduction**

The current process of urban concentration and rural depopulation is due to a territorial organization and a settlement that do not adjust anymore to the current socioeconomic characteristics. In this sense, it could be affirmed that the abandonment of rural areas, especially smaller towns, is a spontaneous adaptation to the thoughtful socioeconomic and technological changes that have occurred especially in recent decades, as well as a logical response from the population to the current demands for quality of life and social well-being. This has led the rural population to concentrate in urban centers and in some regional capitals. This was stated in the Europe 2000 document [1], which already indicated that "European society has therefore become largely an urban society" and that "the urban area becomes a magnet for growth in the region".

Since 1960, Spain has been facing a serious problem of widespread rural depopulation in the northern half of the country, where there are many totally abandoned population centers. As indicated in the Spanish urban agenda [2], "depopulation is fundamentally a territorial problem and one of lack of strategic vision and supra-local development".

Rural depopulation is not just a problem in Spain or in the Mediterranean, it is a burning issue in most EU countries, which is why all the European institutions are currently planning "the fight against the demographic challenge", basically oriented towards aging and rural depopulation. Hernández Luque [3], in relation to the reform of the CAP for the period 2021–2027, expresses this concern for the future by stating that "the urgency of problems such as depopulation, aging—or limited access to basic services requires innovative responses and greater synergies".

Spain is institutionally addressing the challenge of rural depopulation, which is currently on the political agendas of all administrations. Thus, among the measures of territorial order proposed by the Senate to face the demographic challenge [4], it is indicated that it is necessary to adopt "measures that promote the concept of 'functional region', by fostering 'regional centrality'". Later, the National Commissioner for the Demographic Challenge [5] makes a clear reference to this issue by indicating that "... also the headwaters, the intermediate cities or the small provincial capitals are basic to achieve the dynamization of the spaces in demographic risk...".

References to cities and the major role they should play in stabilizing the rural population are increasingly frequent in all institutions. Cities have become the essence and fundamental axes of development, the nodes that structure the entire territory into a system of urban or functional areas, delimited according to the size and accessibility of each city.

This project seeks to demonstrate, that a polycentric system of cities, as the one of the case of study, Extremadura, is capable of decentralizing socioeconomic development, correcting territorial differences and stabilizing the rural population. This is indicated in the territorial agenda of the European Union 2020 [6] when it points out that "a polycentric and balanced territorial development of the European Union is a key element for achieving territorial cohesion". In opposition to the depopulation of the "emptied Spain", which mainly characterizes the northern half of the Spanish country, the population of Extremadura has been highly stabilized until the recent economic crisis, even in municipalities with less than 1000 inhabitants. Thus, Extremadura is one of the few autonomous communities in Spain that does not have any abandoned municipality. These characteristics could probably be extended to the southern half of Spain and to a large part of the rest of the Mediterranean countries of the EU.

The development of telecommunications and the competitiveness imposed by globalization have forced to the cities and their functional areas to organize themselves in networks and to become more complementary, generating synergies and much broader and more competitive economic spaces. The European spatial development perspective (ESDP, art. 183) [7] considers these urban networks as diversified development strategies, especially regarding the creation of networks of smaller towns in less densely settled and economically weaker regions or border areas (art. 75, 76 and 99), as the only opportunity to overcome development difficulties. It is about generating greater joint synergies for a more harmonious and balanced territorial development.

Copus [8], in relation to these networks and rural development, points to the option of rural–urban relationships more cooperative, sustainable and with ecological production and consumption chains within their own rural hinterlands.

Since the beginning of the last decade of the 20th century, the EU has implemented rural development programs, with the aim of diversifying activities and stabilizing the rural population. Although these programs have contributed to the diversification of rural incomes and the maintenance of the population, the he most optimal results have been achieved in territories where urban networks have promoted the diversification of activities and employment for their rural environment, as well as the provision of facilities and services. This is essential for the quality of life and well-being that today's society demands. Ultimately, integrated rururban development must be key to stabilizing the rural population.

Accordingly, the network of urban initiatives (RIU) [9], which prepared the work for the integrated sustainable urban development strategies (ISUDS), states that "in synthesis, sustainable urban development should be progressively channeled towards functional urban areas and polycentric urban systems and towards renewed forms of rural–urban cooperation". Subsequently, the Spanish urban agenda [2], "it pursues to connect the urban and rural environments" and "promote maximum interconnection between rural and urban areas", proposing a territorial model that takes into account, together with "metropolitan areas, new centralities and functional urban areas where new relationships are generated territorial and agglomeration economies and flows between various municipalities".

This study proposes a topic that has been widely discussed since the 1990s and that has intensified in the last decade, both at the research level and at the political level: a polycentric urban system of small and medium-sized cities which provide employment and services to their rural areas of influence and, because of this, have contributed to the stability of the rural population. Therefore, it starts from a very consolidated approach and, in principle, it could seem evident and not original. However, in spite of that, it is still to be implemented and developed in EU policies and in most European countries. This is due, largely, to the lack of experiences of success and good practices of rururban development and therefore, to the distrust in the success of a possible financing. As Artmann et al. [10] indicate, "rural–urban partnerships are sometimes regarded as a concept with lacking content, because it is difficult to prove the effectiveness or rural–urban partnerships with hard facts".

It is our intention to provide with this work, a case study, the autonomous community of Extremadura, an inland region on the border with Portugal in southwest Spain, which is a reference of good practices and rural experiences for both the EU Rural programs and the OECD [11,12] and with a territorial organization of small and medium-sized cities, well distributed over most of the territory, which provide facilities and services, but above all diversified activities, employment and multisectoral income not only to their inhabitants, but also to those in their rural environment and which have contributed to the stabilization of the population in their functional rural areas.

The ESPON Strategy [13] ensures that "making Europe open and polycentric is the most convenient territorial strategy supporting the competitiveness, social cohesion and sustainability goals. The efficiency and quality of the European territory lies in networking cities of all sizes, from local to global level [ . . . ]. The roadmap to make Europe smart, inclusive and sustainable, requires the European territory to become more open and polycentric".

For this purpose, it would be desirable to develop integrated rurban policies and investments and to strengthen the main town of the county in peripheral areas. Although these are recommendations from the European institutions, there is no specific funding or instruments for their implementation. This is stated in the opinion of the European committee of the regions [14] on in "the improvement of the implementation of the territorial agenda of the European Union 2020" (2015/C 195/05), which points out the importance of relations between cities and their areas of influence and calls for a "policy approach" that promotes the creation of functional regions. In addition, the Directorate-General for regional and urban policy of EU in its "Opinion on integrated sustainable urban development for the period 2014–2020" [15]) expressed the possibility of having integrated management tools for this as the integrated territorial investments (ITI), community led local development (CLLD), etc.

For the moment, EU policies continue to consider rural development programs and urban development programs separately.

That is why we intend to continue insisting on the need to articulate and promote a polycentric system of cities with integrated territorial investments, with the certainty that the desired effects will be achieved, as has happened in Extremadura, even without any specific funding.

Throughout this study, first it reviewed the recommendations of the EU and the other European institutions with reference to this issue. Second, the methodology used is described, through the selection of the main small cities in Extremadura and the classification of its rural municipalities according to the distance to these small cities. In addition, third, the relationship between urban accessibility and the demographic dynamics of all population centers will be analyzed, with the idea that less accessibility corresponds to more regressive demographic dynamics and greater depopulation. Subsequently, proposals for spatial planning will be offered and conclusions will be drawn.

#### **2. European Policy of Urban and Rural Integration**

In this second section, a review is sought of EU policies in relation to polycentrism, partnerships and rurban integration, an approach that is increasingly explicit in the documentation emanating from the various national and European administrations.

The EU, with a certain delay and sectoral approaches, has been articulating policies and instruments to face, separately, the agrarian problems initially and the urban problems later. This was confirmed at the time by the General Director for regional policy, Dirk Ahner [16], when he said "However, the methods used under LEADER and URBAN were confined to rural and urban environments, but without any real interaction between them". Since then, despite the proliferation of institutional documents, very little progress has been made in urban functional integration policies. This is despite the fact that since the end of the 1990s, scientific and political recommendations for integration between the city and the countryside will follow, especially by the European Commission (EC) and the European Parliament. However, according to Copus [8] "It finds that the evidence of significant benefits for rural areas, from either 'growth pole' policies or more recent 'rural–urban cooperation' initiatives, is scant". Along with the European EDORA Project (European development opportunities for rural areas) [17], also the ROBUST project (Rural–Urban Europe) can be mentioned [18] or the ESPON strategy [13], with which policies in favor of integration between urban and rural areas have been studied and recommended. Furthermore, there are OECD studies [19], as well as others carried out by entities such as the Committee on Regional Development (REGI) of the European Parliament, the European committee of the regions (CoR) or Ministers responsible for spatial planning (CEMAT) in their successive informal meetings [6,14,20]. However, there is still no decisive European policy in this regard, possibly because evidence and experiences are lacking.

The agrarian measures were soon reflected in the common agricultural policy (CAP) in view of the problems of the sector. Nonetheless, already in the Single European Act [21] economic and social cohesion was proposed and the environment and rural development began to be discussed, albeit in a very vague manner, this materializing in a communication from the Commission to the Council and Parliament (1988) about "The future of the rural world" [22]. In 1991, the rural development programs (RDPs) were created through the LEADER Approach [23] and later, in 1996, the PRODER program [24] in the Spanish territory.

The "Agenda 2000: For a stronger and wider Union" [25], edited in 1999, modified the CAP and made a specific reference to rural development as "Second Pillar of the CAP". Although the common agricultural policy has been maintained even with modifications, it has tended to further enhance rural development and, since the late 1990s, to greater urban–rural integration, highlighting the essential role that the city should play in its rural environment in all organizations and forums.

As for urban policy, this is even more recent, starting specifically in the Europe 2000 Communication [1]. In this communication, it is pointed out that a more harmonious urban system is necessary, with the impulse of small and medium-sized cities, in order for them to carry out a role of intermediation and bridge between the metropolises and the most depopulated areas, in a clear reference to rural areas. For the first time, there is an indication regarding the integration between the city and the rural environment.

All the above are references that gradually crystallize, first with the Corfu European Council (1994) [26] and then, with the Europe 2000+ Communication [27], where the need for a "systematic strengthening of rural cities" and "the preservation of balance and equity between rural and urban areas" is mentioned. It is done with greater emphasis in the Cork Declaration (1996) [28], about Rural Europe—Perspectives for the Future, in which a determined bet is already made to "reinforce the role of small towns as integral parts of rural areas and key development factors". Given that this objective is stated in point 3, on Diversification, it seems that the city looms as support for diversification of economic and social activity for their rural hinterland, this being an aspect that will take shape at the end of the decade. In the 2nd European Conference on rural development of Salzburg (Austria, 2003) [29], the same theme will continue to be emphasized, indicating in the preamble of its Declaration that "convinced [ . . . ] a balanced relationship between the countryside and urban areas". However, they are not only mentioned in documents and actions referring to rural areas, but also in the European territorial planning policy, with the design of the ESDP (1999) [7]. In it, the necessary association between the city and the countryside and an endogenous, diversified and efficient development of rural

spaces is specified. Furthermore, the ESDP has marked a clear trend towards integration between urban and rural areas, trying to "overcome the outdated dualism between city and countryside" (Art. 65:21) and later insisting that it should be "a re-evaluation of the relationship between city and countryside as a functional, spatial entity with diverse relationships and interdependencies" (Art. 92:25–26). The strategy even sentences that "the future of many rural areas is becoming increasingly related to the development of urban settlements in rural areas" and raises a "polycentric urban system where the small and medium-sized towns and their inter-dependencies form important hubs and links, especially for rural regions". Moreover, it indicates that "the towns in the countryside, therefore, require particular attention in the preparation of integrated rural development strategies" (Art. 93:26) sharing the responsibility for their mutual development. Hildebrand expressed himself in similar terms [30].

In the opinion of the European committee of the regions (CoR) about the European spatial development perspective (ESDP) [31], four areas of action are proposed. One of these areas deals with the intention of creates the partnership between urban and rural areas and the role of the second ones. Moreover, CoR establishes that "a polycentric urban system where the small and medium-sized towns and their inter-dependencies form important hubs and links, especially for rural regions" (C93) and emphasizing that "in rural problem regions only these towns are capable of offering infrastructure and services for economic activities in the region and easing access to the bigger labor markets".

The proposals for integration between the city and the countryside are becoming increasingly explicit and assiduous in all the documentation issued by the EU.

The socioeconomic development of rural territories necessarily involves the generation and diversification of employment and income unrelated to the agrarian sector and in relation to its neighboring cities. In this sense, the Agenda 2000 [25] and the 2nd European Conference on rural development of Salzburg [29] stipulate that it is necessary to "recognize that the development of rural areas can no longer be based on agriculture alone, and that diversification both within and beyond the agricultural sector is indispensable".

In 2004, in the proposal for a council regulation laying down general provisions on the European regional development fund, the European social fund and the cohesion Fund [32], it is stated that "in view of the importance of the urban dimension and the contribution of towns and cities, particularly medium-sized ones, to regional development, greater account should be taken . . . ". Furthermore, it is specified that "the assistance shall, appropriately, support urban regeneration particularly as part of regional development and the renewal of rural areas, etc., through economic diversification" (Art. 3.3:25), taking a further step towards the economic endowment and financing of this urban–rural territorial policy, which at this time has not yet been achieved. It also insists on the "reinforcement of links between urban and rural areas" (Art. 9.4:12).

The reflections and recommendations that are established by European Commission in the Third report on economic and social cohesion: A new partnership for cohesion convergence competitiveness cooperation are deeper and more extensive [33]. Thus, in this report, the development of rural areas is directly linked to proximity to their cities "whereas a number of rural areas are suffering from inadequate economic links with neighboring small and medium-sized towns and their economies are often weakening as a result [ . . . ] while rural areas where there are no towns of any size are experiencing falling population and a decline in the availability of basic services". Moreover, this same report establishes three types of rural areas according to the extent of their integration into the rest of the economy and their links with large centers of activity:


and in decline, as well as they tend to have an aging population, poor infrastructure endowment, a low level of basic services, low income per head and a poorly qualified work force. Furthermore, these areas are not usually well integrated into the global economy, so there is a need to develop links with towns even if they are relatively far away.

In Leipzig (2007) [34], in The Territorial Agenda of EU, it is stated that "city regions are thereby surrounded by urban centers and rurally characterized areas and rural areas are surrounded by regional centers and small and medium-sized towns. This is what we call urban–rural partnership", which is a concept that the OECD later endorses and promotes [19], linking this whole approach with transport networks, mobility and accessibility, as well as with new forms of territorial governance between cities and their functional rural areas.

In response to the previous Leipzig Conference, the EU (2008–2009) launches the "Green Paper on Territorial Cohesion, the way ahead" [35], in which it points out that "small and medium-sized towns are more important than their size may suggest, providing infrastructure and services that are key to avoiding rural depopulation and urban drift". At the same time, it is emphasized that "regions and cities are the territorial platform where policies get connected and gain added value".

In the territorial agenda 2020 (Gödöll˝o, 2011) [6] it is pointed out that "we acknowledge the diverse links that urban and rural territories throughout Europe can have with each other, ranging from peri-urban to peripheral rural regions. Urban–rural interdependence should be recognized through integrated governance and planning based on broad partnership [ . . . ]. In rural areas, small and medium-sized towns play a crucial role; therefore, it is important to improve the accessibility of urban centers from related rural territories to ensure the necessary availability of job opportunities and services of general interest". Likewise, it is also recognized in this Agenda [6] that "rural, peripheral and sparsely populated territories may need to enhance their accessibility, foster entrepreneurship and build strong local capacities [ . . . ]. Special attention may need to be paid to underdeveloped peripheral rural and sparsely populated areas where disadvantaged social groups often suffer from segregation. Territories facing severe depopulation should have long-term solutions to maintain their economic activity by enhancing job creation, attractive living conditions and public services for inhabitants and businesses".

In the Informal Meeting of EU Ministers Responsible for Territorial Cohesion and Urban Matters Letonia with the Riga Declaration (2015) [36], it is stated that:

"2. Small and medium-sized urban areas (SMUAS) fulfil important economic and social functions being centers for jobs, public and private services, nodes of local transport, etc. 3. SMUAS are, therefore, essential to avoid rural depopulation and urban drift, promoting more balanced overall regional development. Yet they also contribute to development of metropolitan areas being connected in a polycentric network".

The opinion of the European committee of the regions [14] recognizes that "the effective functioning of small and medium-sized towns and the diversification of rural economies are essential steps towards fully implementing the territorial agenda" asserting that "they play an active role in ensuring well-being and prosperity to the inhabitants of surrounding rural areas because they are centers for employment, services, local transport hubs and guide growing transport demand. They therefore play a role in limiting depopulation of urban and rural areas".

In the CORK 2.0 Declaration "A better life in rural areas" (2016, 5) [37], the European Union recognizes that "EU support should strengthen rural–urban linkages and align the sustainable development of both rural and urban areas".

In the Pact of Amsterdam [38], the report urban agenda for the EU is drafted and indicates that "a growing number of urban challenges are of a local nature, but require a wider territorial solution (including urban–rural linkage) and cooperation within functional urban areas [ . . . ] urban authorities therefore need to cooperate within their functional areas and with their surrounding regions, connecting and reinforcing territorial and urban policies".

Finally, in the Opinion of the European committee of the regions (127th Plenary Session, 2018) [20] it is requested that "the integrated territorial investments (ITI) approach should be more fully exploited beyond urban areas, where it is most frequently used now, and implemented more widely in rural and functional areas", although a multilevel governance framework is lacking.

In Spain, as in most European countries, these recommendations and agreements have not been taken into account, despite the fact that the competent Ministries have included it in different documents, as in the cited Spanish urban agenda [2], but with little result.

In the case of Extremadura (study area of this work), the role of the city in rural development is only mentioned in the Territorial Study of Extremadura II [39], where it is stipulated that "the balance and viability of rural areas is basically conditioned by the dynamism of medium-sized cities that must constitute an authentic interrelated urban framework that allows the integration of these rural areas with the neuralgic nodes of the urban system and with the main areas of activity and development of the autonomous community ".

More specifically, the Government of Extremadura pronounces itself, through the Ministry of the Environment and Countryside, Agrarian Policies and Territory [40], that mentions the Coworking and Networking Rural–urban initiatives "with the purpose of advancing a territorial strategic vision on the consideration of rural–urban spaces as a single geographic space and applying solutions adapted to the needs of both on the same vision on them".

All are proposals and initiatives that, however, have not had sufficient instruments or applicability for optimal development. In any case, practically from the beginning of the autonomic phase (early 1980s) the regional government of Extremadura undertook a process of decentralization of administrative, facilities, services and productive and social infrastructures towards the main cities. This has contributed to their empowerment as county seats, their development and that of their rural environments, relying on the improvement of road infrastructure and a balanced territorial distribution of cities. With this, it has been possible to stop the emigration bleeding and stabilize the rural population to a great extent [41].

Subsequently, in Law 11/2018, of 21 December, on "Territorial planning and sustainable urban planning of Extremadura" (BOE, 35, 9 February 2019) [42], it is indicated that "finding the balance between rural and urban has been the center of the policies for the regional government of Extremadura since its constitution". Undoubtedly, an important effort has been made in the decentralization of facilities and services to the main cities, although there are still extensive peripheral areas, very isolated and inaccessible, without county seats in some cases and, in others, with poorly developed towns in backward environments with regressive demographic dynamics. In any case, as in the rest of Spain, a decided urban–rural comprehensive development policy is lacking, which has sought to articulate in the Territorial Strategy for the Demographic Challenge and Territorial Balance in Extremadura, already proposed in the CES Report [41].

#### **3. Materials and Methods**

As discussed in the introduction, cities are the axes of economic and social life, but increasingly rapid changes, especially technological ones, have caused disparate transformations in the urban system and rururban relations. Thus, Copus [8] study about "functional region failure" and new theoretical trends, some still incipient, which do not have the corresponding support, either practical or applied in European policies and programs. While in agreement with Copus [8], it must be borne in mind that in regions such as Extremadura and in other areas and countries of Southern Europe, traditionally agrarian and more backward, a traditional urban system still prevails with a set of small and medium-sized cities poorly hierarchized and disorganized in permanent competition and, therefore, quite isolated. However, these areas structure their respective territories or functional areas, although not the regional space as they are not organized through cooperation or complementary networks. In any case, they have formed a very stable, rigid and unalterable structure for decades, without the ability to adapt to the changes and transformations that are taking place on a global

scale. As Pillet [43] states, the Spanish urban system, although it was reorganized, presents a poor hierarchization, is unbalanced and has serious difficulties for territorial structuring.

From this perspective, it is difficult for cities to radiate development to their rural areas, but they make them participants in their own development, as they need the labor reserve of this rural environment. Thus, the urban areas collaborate and cooperate with their respective functional areas with a diversified offer of employment unrelated to the agricultural sector and with the generation of a system of complementary multi sectoral incomes that allow a decent standard of living for the rural population. Consequently, rural population is also endowed with proximity facilities and services, stabilizing its population and promoting new rural dynamics.

In Extremadura, cities and their functional areas form a well distributed (although not organized) inherited polycentric system throughout most of the territory. This has allowed the stabilization of their population from 1980 or 1990 to 2012, at which time the crisis reached its greatest impact and reversed the previous trend.

In this and other Spanish regions, since the 80s of the last century, a set of interactions was generated between cities and their rural environments that are not normalized or organized, nor do they depend on specific policies or financing, so they are spontaneous and depend on personal decisions. As Berdegué and Meynard state [44], "functional territories are [ . . . ] social constructions, that is, spaces that emerge and acquire identity from the life and concrete activity of social actors over time".

This urban system articulates functional areas that are not very dynamic, but very open. In some cases, the rural population decided to migrate to the cities and, in other cases, it was integrated into urban development through increasing mobility, highly changing and inherent in modern-day society. As Velázquez and Estebaranz say [45], "it is possible to speak of a relocation of the rural population, since the most isolated rural areas are emptying out while a concentration of this population is taking place in those closest to the urban centers".

The general hypothesis of this study (see Figure 1) is based on the fact that the rural stability of Extremadura is mainly due to a territorial organization formed by a polycentric system of cities well distributed in most of the regional territory that provide facilities and services and, above all, diversified activities, employment and multi sectoral incomes not only to its inhabitants, but also to those of their rural environments, contributing to the stabilization of their rural functional areas. It is referred to in the graph as urban accessibility and demographic dynamism.

This more generic hypothesis contains two other more specific ones, according to its content: urban system and accessibility.

(a) The first hypothesis is based on the consideration that Extremadura has a system of cities well distributed throughout the territory, forming a polycentric urban system. To respond to this hypothesis, the main cities of the region have been selected, those with more than 10,000 inhabitants, which according to the criteria of the National statistics institute (INE) are the nuclei considered to be urban in Spain. However, in addition, resorting to the evolution of the population, they are the only nuclei that present a positive demographic trend throughout the 20th century until very recently. They are located in the most developed areas with population densities around the national averages. All the municipalities below this threshold, on the other hand, have a negative evolution.

**Figure 1.** Methodology and hypothesis. Source: the authors.

Although population volume is often used to establish urban rank and hierarchy, since population size is an important variable, it cannot be an exclusive or definitive criterion, due to the diversity of the territorial structures of the Spanish population. As Precedo indicates [46] "a Galician settlement with a thousand inhabitants can achieve the same organizing function as an Andalusian town with more than 10,000 inhabitants". Other authors have resorted to market share, trade as the most characteristic activity, administrative services, public transport concessions, etc., and, in the Report on Large Cities in Spain (2001), the use of various criteria or variables together with that referring to the population is recommended.

In the case of Extremadura, Sánchez Zabala [47] applied a multivariate analysis and Arenal-Clave, in the System of Cities of Extremadura [48], initially classifies urban settlements according to their population, but also in relation to a synthetic index of functionality, which is determined by public and private services and wholesale commercial distribution. The results of these studies could have been used, but the time that has passed leads us to adopt the decision to consider the commercial areas together with the population variable, since they are a very distinctive urban indicator. Only cities with a definite urban rank are able to articulate the system of commercial areas that, in short, come to be functional areas.

For this, it has been decided to use the main cities in the region according to the Socioeconomic Atlas of Extremadura 2019 [49], from the Institute of Statistics of Extremadura. This document dedicates his fourth volume to the commercial areas in the region with enough territorial precision. They are 12 small cities than 10,000 inhabitants, and according to SNI (Statistic National Institute) criteria are considered as urban. Furthermore, they are the only municipalities that show a positive demographic trend throughout the 20th century until very recently. These are located in the most developed areas and with population densities around the national averages. Municipalities below this threshold, on the contrary, have a negative evolution. In Extremadura, there are only two cities that have little more than 10,000 inhabitants (Olivenza and Villafranca de los Barros) and that are not the head of commercial areas according to the Socioeconomic Atlas of Extremadura 2019 [49]. This is because Olivenza is located a few kilometers from the main city of Extremadura, Badajoz and other small cities

as Villafranca de los Barros, Almendralejo and Zafra. Therefore, Olivenza is strangled and have not been able to develop its own commercial area. Moreover, so it has not been added as small cities of this analysis. In the opposite case, Trujillo appears which has less than 10,000 inhabitants, but has an extensive traditional commercial area due to its geographic location. Moreover, therefore, in this case, Trujillo has been added to this analysis as a small city.

(b) In the second specific hypothesis (Figure 1), which concerns accessibility, it is assumed that urban areas are articulated according to distance and the transport system and accessibility, with an influence that is degraded according to the time and resources invested in travel.

To test the hypothesis, that is, that the urban areas are articulated according to distance and the transport system, with an influence that is degrading according to time and the resources invested in travel, that is, depending on accessibility, the national road map (from the Ministry of transport, mobility and urban agenda) and the road map of the regional government have been used. It seems reasonable that this road network is that maintains the weight of current mobility and rururban interactions. With the twelve urban centers, the minimum travel times in minutes (impedance) have been obtained from each of the remaining 376 municipalities in the region to the closest city among the twelve ones selected following methodologies already used in previous work [50].

It was determined to calculate the time taken from the rural municipalities (less than 10,000 inhabitants) to the 12 small cities. For that, it was necessary to transform the polygonal layer of the municipalities, without taking into account those disseminated, to a dot layer that represent the centroids to calculate, later, their distance to the closest urban center (using the vertices generated). It is necessary to note that the study of accessibility is based on graph theory (these are a collection of nodes) [51,52]. The nodes correspond to the centroids of the population centers, which are connected by edges that are all communication paths. Thus, it is possible to know which node is attached to each edge to calculate the travel time between both nodes. Considering this, the minimum travel time of each population rural center to the nearest point of the urban ones are calculated in this paper. For this, it is necessary to know the hierarchy of the network and rely on impedance since it is a fundamental element in the study of accessibility [53]. The impedance is obtained in minutes and it is the minimum time for a vehicle (in this case, a car) from a population rural center to the nearest urban center. It is then obtained with network analyst tools from a GIS (closest facility). Subsequently, the IDW (inverse distance weight) method was used to capture the minimum travel time on a map, which allows interpolating cell values by combining a set of points to determine the inverse distance of these values [50,54,55].

Then, three ranges of municipalities have been established: those closest to the small cities (with a travel time of less than 15 min), those located between 15 and 30 min and the most remote and peripheral (with more than 30 min of displacement). Other studies and even the department for regional and urban regional and urban policy (DG REGIO), which is based on OECD studies, reach up to 60 min and Reig the alt. [56] reduces it for Spain to 45 min, since at the national level, if it is reduced further, most of the population would be in a situation of inaccessibility.

When descending to a regional scale, the territorial organization is very diverse, in such a way that in this region the influence of small cities or simple county seats is very small, sometimes barely exceeding 15 min, which is why we have estimated 30 min as the maximum limit for rururban interrelations. On the other hand, this region does not have the highway system that exists in other Spanish or European regions and, although it has an acceptable road system (average of 95 km/h), the 60 min journey time (even the 45 one) seems to us to be very excessive, especially for some health and education services. In any case, it will be possible to verify if the decision is correct or not when comparing the demographic variables between the ranges of municipalities and when ascertaining the volume of population within this radius.

Finally, in the discussion section, it is intended to insert a proposal to integrate most the regional population in the maximum environment of 30 min of travel.

#### **4. Results**

#### *4.1. Urban Polycentrism in Rural Areas*

The initial result has been the twelve cities that appear in Figure 2. This model basically coincides, although with small variations, with the results obtained by Sánchez Zabala [47] and its multivariate analysis and by Arenal-Clave [48], who used other criteria, as mentioned. This demonstrates the strength of the urban system, its territorial roots and its temporary stability. These are small and medium-sized cities in which the service sector prevails, highlighting commercial activity and transport, which fits into the schemes proposed by different authors for quite some time for other areas of Spain. Estébanez and Martín Lou [57] state that "commercial and service connections between centers are what determine a system of central places, especially in regions with a dominant agrarian economy". Precedo [46] indicates that "there is a relationship between economic development and the tertiary level of cities [ . . . ] especially in small cities".

Despite the elapsed time, according to previous references, the characterization of small cities in the region has remained practically unchanged. The main cities, coincide with the largest populations and with the most developed and extensive functional areas, are also a temporal constant. This network, which is identical in all the studies mentioned since 1990 despite applying different criteria and techniques, is formed by the two provincial capitals (Badajoz and Cáceres), which would occupy the highest rank (coincide with the range of population between 60,000 and 150,000 inhabitants); the autonomous capital (Mérida) and Plasencia, in a second rank (range from 40,000 to 60,000 inhabitants); and the rest, in a third rank: Coria and Navalmoral, which flank Plasencia, forming the northern axis; Trujillo, as a subarea of Cáceres; in the central axis of Las Vegas del Guadiana, Montijo, Don Benito and Villanueva de la Serena; and, further south, Almendralejo and Zafra (range from 10,000 to 40,000 inhabitants).

In the map, the two essential factors to explain the location of the small cities and their consequent development are represented; these are the topography and the system of the elementary main roads (national main roads only).

In this sense, it should be noted that all the small cities (except Cáceres and Trujillo) are located in the sedimentary basins, which are historically the most productive especially because of their irrigation in the middle of the last century. They are the irrigated areas in the north of the region (in the tributaries of the right bank of the Tagus River) and in the center (in the plains of the Guadiana River) that extend south through the sedimentary basin of Tierra de Barros. At the same time as they were irrigated, their productions were linked to agribusiness, achieving the highest levels of development and population density in the region, which led to a more progressive demographic dynamic and the stabilization of the rural population in their respective areas of influence.

In a traditionally agrarian region like Extremadura, the population has tended to be concentrated in the most productive agrarian areas. This is also verified by Arenal-Clave [48], which indicates that "the organization and arrangement of the constituent elements of the urban system are totally related to the spatial organization of the agrarian productive base".

**Figure 2.** Relief, main roads and 12 small cities of Extremadura. Source: the authors, based on the National Geographic Institute (NGI) and Atlas of Extremadura 2019.

The second factor to explain this location is the transport system, especially the A-66 main road (Sevilla-Gijón), which crosses the region in a north–south direction and the A-5 main road (Madrid-Lisbon), with a northeast direction, due to its importance in communications, in the generation of activities and employment and in the structuring of the regional territory. All the small cities of the network in the region are located around the two mentioned main roads, except Coria and Don Benito-Villanueva de La Serena, although they are connected to them through two other regional main roads (EX-A1 and EX-A2). Thus, a polycentric urban system is generated, although with a very central extension in the region made up of two transversal axes along the two large sedimentary basins (Tagus River and Guadiana River—Tierra de Barros) and a north–south longitudinal axis that crosses them and communicates them. Along with these more developed areas, there are quite isolated and inaccessible peripheral areas, both due to the distance to the main cities and due to deficiencies in the transport system, with population densities of less than 10 inhabitants per km<sup>2</sup> . These are the most backward rural areas with the lowest socioeconomic development and with the most regressive demographic behavior, which shows that, in fact, there is a clear correlation between the distance to the closest cities, urban accessibility and socioeconomic development, what is supported by the European Commission in the ESDP [7]. These are areas in which an agrarian economy persists with adverse factors such as those derived from the relief (mountainous areas of the Central System, to the north; Montes de Toledo, to the east; and Sierra Morena, to the south; or riparian areas because of the deep recess of the Tagus River and its entire dense subsidiary river network). In other cases, these are historical factors, as the case of the Spanish-Portuguese border (to the west), which has acted as an impassable and rigid barrier and repelled infrastructure and investment on both sides.

#### *4.2. Urban Accessibility and Stabilization of the Rural Population*

Urban influence is gradually degrading until it disappears with distance and travel times for reasons of efficiency and cost. The different areas of influence are spontaneously delimited and conform naturally depending on the urban range and accessibility of each small city. To verify it and as previously mentioned, three ranges were established, with all the municipalities in the region, delimited according to the travel time to the closest city among the twelve selected (less than 15 min, from 15 to 30 and more than 30). The objective is to obtain databases and detect to what extent small cities are influencing the stability of the population in rural areas, which is only possible through the diversification of activities, employment and income, and ultimately, through the decentralization of territorial development (Figure 3).

**Figure 3.** Accessibility to urban network of Extremadura. Source: the authors.

The population of the 12 cities with the highest urban rank does not reach 50%, so it can be deduced that the other half lives in nuclei with less than 10,000 inhabitants, being then Extremadura the Spanish region with the largest rural population in the country. Later, although it has been mentioned that these are small rural cities and there are no large urban concentrations, it must be considered that 66% of the Extremadura population lives less than 15 min of travel to one of these 12 small cities and 87% less than 30 min. Therefore, there is a less population that is distributed over a very peripheral fringe that is very isolated and inaccessible. In addition, other adverse factors for their development, almost exclusively agrarian, should be analyzed in these areas, such as the mountainous reliefs of the north, east and south of the region, in addition to the rigid and limiting border with Portugal to the west. These are the most depressed areas of Extremadura and with persistent emigration and regressive demographic dynamics, so they do not exceed 10 inhabitants/km<sup>2</sup> .

Regarding the evolution of the population (Table 1), it is verified that the small cities have experienced a growth of 84.5% from 1950 to the present. The rural areas have registered losses directly proportional to the distance, in such a way that the municipalities located in the perimeter of the 15-min journey to the small cities show a decrease of close to 28%. While, in the range up to 30 min, the losses already exceed 50% of its population (double that in the municipalities closest to the small cities).

Finally, in the most remote municipalities (with travel times greater than 30 min), the losses exceed 60%. Therefore, the existing correlation between urban accessibility and population evolution is evident, or, in other words, the influence of small cities in stabilizing the population or slowing down the processes of rural depopulation.


**Table 1.** Evolution of the population (1950 = 100).

Source: the authors based on the National Statistics Institute (2020).

Without a doubt, the size of the municipalities is also another factor of depopulation, due to the limitations of the smaller towns, since they do not have the most essential facilities and services or even more employment than that generated in the agricultural sector with permanent and declining labor surpluses, especially in smallholder areas. However, in Extremadura, even municipalities with less than a thousand inhabitants have remained stabilized between 1990 and 2010, although it has had a slight regressive trend due to the effect of quite negative natural growth.

In this case, the distance variable is more defining than the one referring to the size of the population centers, since the small municipalities of irrigated land and those closest to the small cities, which have an acceptable dynamism, contrast those found in the peripheral and mountainous areas and that are at serious risk of depopulation. As Copus [8] indicates, a "complex mix of socioeconomic processes, some sensitive to spatial proximity, others 'liberated' by transport and IT improvements, now driven by 'organized proximity" is developing.

As seen in Figure 4 and Table 2, the degradation of the values with distance remains constant throughout the period studied. This is proof that the city system, already consolidated in the middle of the last century, was already exerting its influence, although much more limited to the closest and most accessible municipalities.

**Figure 4.** Evolution of the absolute population. Source: the authors, based on National Statistics Institute (2020).

First, the intense losses in all rural areas between 1960 and 1981 can be seen, a period in which the municipalities of the two most peripheral fringes lost more than 40% of their population due to the rural exodus. These losses began to diminish in 1981 in all rural areas, but largely after 1991, especially in areas closer to small cities. However, the stability described is considered "regressive" due to the effects of increasingly negative natural growth and not so much due to emigration, as will be seen below.

The rural municipalities with greater accessibility to the cities separated from the rest very early, in 1960, since their proximity allowed their population to move to the cities through public transport. The towns on the other two most distant fringes presented a superimposed trend until 1970, from which time the road network, public transport and the availability of own vehicles were improved. In short, the accessibility to the small cities was improved and the population of the municipalities a little further away (with movements between 15 and 30 min) began to move to the cities, distancing themselves from the more distant towns and stabilizing their population. There are no great differences between the municipalities of the two most peripheral fringes, but there is a decoupling that was increasing imperceptibly, but constantly.

It is necessary to take into account the strong degradation of values after 15 min of travel, since cities are small with a limited urban range and have a limited influence beyond the distance from which a significant gap between some municipalities and others is appreciated. In addition, it is necessary to point out the intense differences between the demographic behavior in the small cities and that already observed in the rural municipalities closest to them. This is a consequence not so much of current factors, but of emigration from the fifties to the eighties of the century past, whose negative effects reach to the present and are still projected into the future.

Regarding the distribution of the regional population of the four ranges of municipalities (the small cities and their three areas of influence) (Table 2), it should be noted that, in 1950, only 20% of the population lived in the small cities, which would reach up to 40% considering the municipalities within 15 min compared to 26% of the population that was distributed in the most peripheral areas.


**Table 2.** Proportion of the population according to the accessibility of the municipalities.

Source: the authors based on the National Statistics Institute (2020).

Currently, almost 50% of the population lives in the small cities and only 13% live in the most inaccessible areas, whose proportion of the population has been cut in half. For their part, the municipalities within 15 min have kept their population very stable, with a loss of only one percentage point, despite the emigration they have suffered. Something similar occurs with the towns located on the border from 15 to 30 min, which register moderate losses, although they already reach seven percentage points.

Thus, the evolution of the absolute population is nothing more than a synthesis of the vital events that demographic dynamics gathers, so that the variables of Gross Birth Rate, Gross Mortality Rate, Vegetative Growth Rate and Migratory Balance Rate also maintain a degradation proportional to distance and accessibility, as can be seen in the following table. As Oliveira states [58], "there is positive growth spillovers from urban to rural regions in terms of population. These effects are decreasing with distance".

The degradation based on accessibility is especially evident in the natural growth variable, as reflected in Table 3 and Figure 5. Natural growth is a synthesis variable in which only the small cities still have a slightly positive balance close to zero increase. Thus, the differences between the rest of the municipalities are very sharp and constant and with a very negative trend throughout the entire period. Currently, the values range from −3.9 per thousand (municipalities closest to the small cities) to −9.5 per thousand (for the most remote municipalities).


**Table 3.** Urban accessibility and demographic dynamics.

Source: the authors based on the National Statistics Institute (2020).

The most distant municipalities started the 1980s with negative values. Then, in the early 1990s, towns with 15 to 30 min of travel had negative natural growth. Later, towards the end of the century, the municipalities closest to the small cities were the ones that reached the negative balances. Thus, there was a slight slowdown in the decreasing trend around the 2006–2010 period due to slight immigration, which was much more noticeable in the case of the small cities. In the last two five-year periods, the drop has been very intense, even in the small cities, since they have also registered negative migratory balances, as will be seen below.

**Figure 5.** Evolution of the natural growth rate. Source: the authors, based on National Statistics Institute (2020).

The variable of migration balances (Figure 6) is more complex in all cases, due to its more unstable and changing nature, although a series of behavior guidelines can be specified.

Throughout the series, five-year periods with a predominance of emigration and others of immigration alternate, but most of the time, maintaining degradation in one sense or another depending on the accessibility to the small cities. In any case, it should be borne in mind that this variable owes its complexity to a greater dependence on external and, above all, economic factors.

The series begins in the second half of the eighties with negative values in all cases. This period coincides with the entry of Spain into the EU on 1 January 1986. At this time, significant resources from the ERDF Funds entered into infrastructure and were accompanied by Spanish government policies in construction and housing to deal with the Unemployment pockets that the late industrial reconversion was generating after the unstable period of transition from dictatorship to democracy. Simultaneously, works were undertaken for the Universal Expo in Seville and for the Olympics in Barcelona (1992), so in that five-year period, a significant offer of construction employment emerged, causing massive emigration from rural areas, but even from cities as well.

The following five-year period (1991–1995) was characterized by a generalized economic recession and by the stoppage of activity in the construction sector. For this reason, a large part of the previous emigrants returned to their rural hometowns, so that in this period, important immigration movements predominated, although not to the same extent as in the previous period. In the small cities, emigration remained and with more intensity because of the lack of housing and the departure of a certain young population towards the closest towns.

**Figure 6.** Evolution of the migration balance rate. Source: the authors, based on National Statistics Institute (2020).

1996–2010 was a long period of economic development and a strong attraction for foreign immigration, which was concentrated in the cities and which finally reached all rural areas, to a greater or lesser extent, in the five-year period 2006–2010.

In the current decade, there has been a general emigration to all population centers due to the consequences of the economic crisis that has caused the return of a large part of foreign immigrants to their countries of origin. If there have been slightly negative data in the first half of the decade, in the second they have reached important values. Job losses in cities have also been important for their respective areas of influence. For this reason, emigration has intensified until reaching the second maximum of the entire period. Throughout the series, the degradation of the values according to distance and accessibility has maintained, with the only exception of the small cities during the five-year period 1991–1995.

The small cities have been able to limit the losses due to emigration only in the closest towns. However, they have not been able to mitigate the losses due to negative natural growth, since it is due to long-range structural factors, such as aging and high mortality, on one hand, and the drop in fertility and birth rate, on the other. The effects of emigration are very noticeable also in other five variables, with which the population structure could be synthesized: the average age, the active population, the young population, the senile population and, above all, thedependency index (Table 4).


**Table 4.** Relationship between urban accessibility and demographic dynamics.

Source: the authors based on the National Statistics Institute (2020).

The average age of the population ranges from 41 years in the small cities to 50 years in municipalities located more than 30 min away. This is due to the continuous decrease in birth rates and the youth population group, which is 15.5% in the small cities, while in towns that are more distant it is already below 10%. This is mainly a consequence of low fertility rates and the lack of women of childbearing age due to the persistent effects of emigration. The senile population, on the other hand, is higher than the young population group in all cases, even in the small cities, where it reaches almost 17%. This senile population almost doubles in the most remote municipalities. Consequently, the labor force is progressively decreasing from 70% to 60%.

The dependency index, which ranges between values of 50% and more than 70%, indicates that there are more than 70 passive people for every 100 active people in the most remote towns because of the extremely high aging that they suffer. It is evident, therefore, that the demographic dynamics are very regressive, with little capacity for regeneration, especially in the smaller municipalities and far from the small cities.

#### **5. Discussion and Conclusions**

According to the data presented, the influence of the small cities on the development of their functional areas (almost exclusively rural) to which they offer facilities and services and, above all, diversification of activities, employment and income, is very evident, favoring the stability of the rural population. Extremadura, with a polycentric system of well-distributed small and medium cities in most of the regional territory, has managed to maintain half of its population in rural areas, with the highest percentage of all the autonomous communities in Spain. In addition, a certain stability of the rural population has been fostered in the region, although this is a "regressive" stability with a slightly negative trend since 1980. This is mainly due to a negative natural growth that is already beginning to affect even cities due to the progressive and intense aging and the drastic drop in fertility and birth rates. These characteristics are very widespread (higher in rural areas) due to the effects of emigration from 1950 to 1980, which dragged between 40% and 60% of the population from rural areas.

It is also very clear that urban influence in rural areas is degrading with distance, consequently with urban accessibility, which depends on the range and size of each city, as well as on infrastructure and the transport system.

The polycentric urban system in Extremadura is made up of a group of twelve small cities whose influence in their rural areas does not exceed, sometimes, the first border of the 15-min journey and gradually degrades until it loses almost all influence beyond 30 min. It should be borne in mind that these are small cities with little labor supply except for the cities that form the basic structure and with a greater urban range, in which case their influence does extend even beyond 30 min. In any case, within the maximum radius of 30 min of travel 87% of the total regional population settles. Cities have undoubtedly slowed down the process of rural depopulation, but they have not been able to stop the structural effects of emigration in previous decades or the drop in fertility rates. Furthermore, there is no doubt that Extremadura, a border inland region with the highest percentage of rural population in Spain, maintains a demographic dynamism superior to other regions with the same characteristics, especially with respect to the northern half regions of the Spanish country that have

numerous abandoned rural centers and a very regressive demographic dynamism. These are the so-called "empty Spain" and are very depopulated. This depopulation is the result of a settlement of widely scattered small municipalities and without cities or county seats capable of retaining the population in rural areas. In fact, as Reig et al. state [56], "58% of rural municipalities can be classified as accessible, since the travel time of their inhabitants to access the services offered by cities is less than 45 min. 70% of the population of rural municipalities live in them". It could be considered that it is a large volume of population, but it is not comparable to that registered in Extremadura and less than 30 min (87%).

In any case, there are extensive peripheral areas in Extremadura that are very distant from the small cities and very inaccessible. These have a very regressive socioeconomic (basically agrarian) and demographic development, in such a way that most of their municipalities do not even reach 10 inhabitants per km<sup>2</sup> . Thus, as EU indicates in The Territorial Agenda 2020 [6], "in rural areas small and medium-sized towns play a crucial role; therefore it is important to improve the accessibility of urban centers from related rural territories to ensure the necessary availability of job opportunities and services of general interest".

The proposal made in this article involves integrating rural areas into regional dynamics, for which it would be necessary to decentralize development through territorial planning. This, without a doubt, must be based on the impulse of the traditional county seats, which have gradually lost their traditional functionality in the context of economic backwardness and emigration. In the 1990s, the regional government of Extremadura carried out the second administrative decentralization towards the main cities, but some small cities and county seats (mainly on the periphery) were relegated, so a third decentralization would must be carried out towards these towns, as well as its corresponding functional areas.

According to CES [41], for peripheral rural municipalities, geographic characteristics and territorial planning are key, since the low accessibility or the absence of more populated nearby municipalities are the phenomena that hinder their integration into a dynamic of rural development.

In Figure 7, it can be seen how in the easternmost strip (the most extensive and continuous) three small cities (traditionally county seats) have been incorporated, however, they currently have lost most of their previous functionality. From north to south, they are Herrera del Duque (in the county of La Siberia), Castuera (in La Serena) and Azuaga, in La Campiña.

**Figure 7.** Urban network proposal of Extremadura. Source: the authors.

In the other western fringe, bordering Portugal, two other small cities have been included with a range that could be considered third order. These are Valencia de Alcántara in the central zone and Jerez de los Caballeros in the south, being more distant from the border, but with the possibility of extending its influence to it. These two municipalities are also traditional county seats that have managed to maintain two commercial subareas, especially Valencia de Alcántara because it is located more than an hour from the nearest city (Cáceres).

Of the five cities mentioned, four already have railway routes, although very obsolete and with little capacity (Jerez de los Caballeros, Valencia de Alcántara, Castuera and Llerena, near Azuaga), that should be improved. Furthermore, some highways are also pending to be built: Zafra-Jerez de los Caballeros-Huelva, Badajoz-Zafra-Llerena-Azuaga-Córdoba and Badajoz-Valencia, perhaps by Castuera or Herrera del Duque. These main roads would make these areas permeable, provide them with greater accessibility and incorporate them into national and international circuits, promoting investment and decentralization of development. If these five cities, located in the most peripheral areas, were promoted, the population that could be less than 30 min from any of those 17 cities that appear on the previous map would rise to 98% of the regional total. Only 2% of the population would be outside this 30-min perimeter.

There would be four small areas, almost enclaves that do not have county seats, so it would be necessary to articulate specific development projects to achieve the stability of a minimum population in these more backward, aged and isolated areas. In this case, there are small mountain regions, Sierra de Gata and Las Hurdes in the *Central System*, Villuercas and southern Siberia in *Montes de Toledo,* as well as Alcántara in the northern border area and in the *Riberos del Tajo*, also with steep slopes by the nesting of the river system. Some of these four regions, due to their centuries-old socioeconomic backwardness, have already been the subject of different specific development plans throughout the 20th century, especially in the second half, but have not been able to restraint their inertia.

These more peripheral areas, which are socioeconomically backward and have a very regressive demographic dynamic, show that urban accessibility and the integration of rurban partnerships are essential for the stability of the rural population and its demographic dynamism. All the specific socioeconomic plans for these areas have previously failed. Not even the EU's own rural development programs have the same opportunities, nor are their achievements as noticeable in these peripheral areas of Extremadura or in the northern half of Spain

Any strategy to meet the demographic challenge must consider a territorial planning that will ultimately allow the decentralization of development and the overcoming of existing imbalances. Small centers of population and those more distant from cities only have the capacity to generate employment in an agricultural sector in decline and with permanent labor surpluses and cannot provide acceptable facilities and services. Only a polycentric system of cities can contribute to the generation of employment and income outside the agricultural sector, as well as to the provision of quality services, not only for their inhabitants, but also for those in their rural environments.

Now that the new rural development programs for the next EU programming period (2021–27) are beginning to be planned, these options—not yet taken into account—of rurban partnerships and integrated territorial investments, which can guarantee the success of European investments in the face of the demographic challenge and rural depopulation, as is evident in this region and without any funding, should be considered.

As a final conclusion, the results confirm the initial hypotheses, in the sense that "the future of rural areas is increasingly dependent on the development of cities. Balanced urban systems—and in their case polycentric ones—are of greater interest in Europe because of their better capacity to organize innovative systems in the development, dissemination and support of local economies. Cooperation between the city and its environment is key to restructuring the territory and generating responsible change [ . . . ]", according to Ortega [59]. Moreover, the other hand, these results have demonstrated the functioning of the rurban partnerships and their functionality in the face of the demographic challenge, which can be easily extrapolated to other environments.

195

**Author Contributions:** Conceptualization, J.L.G.G. and A.N.M.; Formal analysis, J.L.G.G. and A.N.M.; Investigation, J.L.G.G. and A.N.M.; Methodology, J.L.G.G. and A.N.M.; Software, A.N.M.; Validation, J.L.G.G. and A.N.M.; Writing—original draft, J.L.G.G. and A.N.M.; Writing—review & editing, J.L.G.G. and A.N.M. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

**Funding:** ERDF (European regional development fund), European Social Fund (ESF) and Government of Extremadura (Spain) funded this research and the APC to the DESOSTE research group (Grant number GR18052).

**Conflicts of Interest:** The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

#### **References**


© 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

### *Article* **Smart Villages: Where Can They Happen?**

#### **Łukasz Komorowski \* and Monika Stanny**

Institute of Rural and Agricultural Development, Polish Academy of Sciences, 72 Nowy Swiat St., ´ 00-330 Warsaw, Poland; mstanny@irwirpan.waw.pl

**\*** Correspondence: lkomorowski@irwirpan.waw.pl

Received: 10 April 2020; Accepted: 14 May 2020; Published: 14 May 2020

**Abstract:** The European Union is actively promoting the idea of "smart villages". The increased uptake of new technology and in particular, the use of the internet, is seen as a vital part of strategies to combat rural decline. It is evident that those areas most poorly connected to the internet are those confronted by the greatest decline. The analysis in this paper is based on Poland, which at the time of EU accession had many deeply disadvantaged rural areas. Using fine-grained socio-economic data, an association can be found between weak internet access and rural decline in Poland. The preliminary conclusions about the utility of the smart village concept as a revitalisation tool for rural Poland point to theoretical and methodological dilemmas. Barriers to the concept's implementation are also observed, although there is a chance they may be overcome with the continued spread of information and communication technologies in rural areas.

**Keywords:** smart villages; EU instruments; rural decline; rural areas; information and communication technologies

#### **1. Introduction**

In the past decade European countries have been undergoing a transformation towards an information society, and the changes taking place depend on global technological development. Rural residents are also a part of this process. Adjusting to the changes is not so much an opportunity as a necessity, as more and more types of activity are performed in the virtual world. This allows distances to be "reduced" and goods and services, especially public ones, to become more accessible. In this context, information and communication technologies are treated as a chance to overcome development difficulties [1–5]. However, their usefulness depends on the availability and quality of the internet. Its absence or poor accessibility deprives a given area of opportunities for smart development [6–9].

A new concept for rural development proposed by the European Commission is called "smart villages". It is primarily aimed at villages that are declining due to remoteness and depopulation [10–12]. The first and most often repeated definition of smart villages comes from the document on the EU's actions for this idea [13]. According to its authors, smart villages are those (local communities) that use digital technologies and innovations in their daily life, thus improving its quality, improving the standard of public services and ensuring better use of local resources. The document by the European Network for Rural Development (ENRD) underlines that a smart environment is created by people, and their main objective should be to find practical solutions to the main problems they face. It can be said that the EU promotes support for the development of areas in decline by using digital technologies and innovations. By engaging in a discussion on the concepts that have only just been formulated, the question can be asked whether these areas have the capacity for smart technology-based development. The authors assume that smart villages "begin" with an analysis of the use of digital technologies to create a space in which it is easier for local leaders to take account of the

needs and capabilities of the inhabitants. Adopting such an approach makes it possible to consider the elements necessary for this process. The authors believe that the sine qua non is access to the internet.

The accessibility of the internet is spatially differentiated. The question is about its scale and nature. So where does the smart-village concept stand a chance? The decline in rural areas is characterised by the lowest level of socio-economic development, the following hypothesis will be tested: the lower the level of rural development, the lower the internet accessibility. This makes it more difficult to implement the smart-village concept. The implementation of such a defined objective will take place in three stages: (1) tracing changes in the rural population in Poland in relation to the level of socio-economic development; (2) identification areas of internet infrastructure deficiency and verification that they overlap spatially with areas of the lowest development level; (3) determining what smart villages are or are meant to be, what they should be like in the future, and what resources rural areas need to support activities fostering such initiatives in the EU's future financial framework.

The beginnings of the smart village concept date to the middle of the last decade, when a vision of smart rural areas was presented by T. van Gevelt and J. Holmes [14] on the basis of activities already pursued in this area in Africa and Asia. Due to substantial developmental and structural differences between rural areas in those regions of the world and rural areas in Europe, the concept is understood a little differently in the EU, also in view of its objectives and the instruments used in its implementation. An important document giving direction to smart village initiatives in Europe appears to be the above-mentioned the *EU Action for Smart Villages* [13], planning specific actions aimed at putting the idea into practice. What has become the driving force of the discussion on smart villages, however, is the vision of "a better life in rural areas" outlined in the 2016 Cork 2.0 Declaration [15], in which one of the challenges for EU policies for the development of rural areas was described as follows: "to overcome the digital divide and develop the potential offered by connectivity and digitisation of rural areas" (p. 3). The Rural People's Declaration of Candás Asturias [16] from late 2019 underlines the necessity to support smart initiatives as part of EU policies. The development of "smart rural villages and towns" is also recommended by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in its rural policy-making principles [17] (p. 7). The great role of digital technologies is also highlighted by F. Bogovic and T. Szanyi, who view the concept's development and practical application as a chance to ensure an easier and better life for rural residents, adding that it is necessary to respond to the problems created by the ageing of society and a shortage of services [10]. Another underlined aspect of smart villages is the idea's territorial sensitivity, enabling any projects to be adjusted to local circumstances. The virtue of the concept's possible broad application is at the same time a drawback whenever we try to say what a smart village really is (or can be) (see Sections 3.3 and 4). The authors of the present paper see this issue as a general challenge, not just for the institutions that plan the development but also for the scientific community, its task being to deliver knowledge that best describes reality.

#### **2. Materials and Methods**

#### *2.1. Study Area*

The analysis was carried out for rural areas in Poland, which show great territorial differences in the socioeconomic development level. This is the effect of historical (19th and 20th centuries) circumstances related to Poland being partitioned among three powers (Russia, Prussia and Austria) as well as socialist state policies for rural areas that were pursued until the fall of communism in Central and Eastern Europe in 1989 [18]. Efforts to make up for infrastructural backwardness in rural Poland did not really take off until the country joined the EU in 2004. The social and economic structure of rural areas is still heavily influenced by the economic power of regional cities, which drains the demographic potential from areas far from urban centres. The scale of these differences is well illustrated by the results of research conducted in Poland as part of the Rural Development Monitoring (MROW) project [19,20] (Figure 1). In order to see the true scale of these differences, it is advisable to

consider the lowest level of spatial aggregation, i.e., the local structure. In Poland this requirement is met when data are considered for the *gmina*/commune (local administrative unit) level, based on the current administrative division (in this case from 2019), taking into account rural communes and the rural segments of urban-rural communes (2175 local administrative units—LAUs). By "rural areas" in Poland we mean areas lying outside the administrative boundaries of towns/cities [21].

**Figure 1.** Synthetic measure of socioeconomic development level in rural areas in Poland<sup>1</sup> . Source: [20] (p. 16; 219).

#### *2.2. Data Collection*

1 1

'

The authors took advantage of public statistical databases available in the Local Data Bank of Statistics Poland (BDL GUS); in the field of "population": total commune population (2005–2018); in the field of "communications": land-line telephone subscribers (1995–2018). In addition, they used periodical publications of Statistics Poland (GUS)—statistical yearbooks and information society surveys to obtain data on the number of households with an internet connection (2005–2018). Since the amount of published statistics on information and communication technologies is limited (and available only at the voivodeship/province level), the authors also used data on internet accessibility in rural areas made available by the Office of Electronic Communications (UKE) for the Rural Development Monitoring (MROW) project. Results of MROW research project on the socioeconomic development were used as well. These data are not accessible through open repositories, hence the results of research conducted at the local level on their basis can be considered of great interest for territorial development.

In the study, quantitative methods have been used:


A synthetic variable obtained from following Formula (2) assumes values within the range 0–1: *W<sup>i</sup>* = <sup>1</sup> *n* P*m j*=1 *mi*α ′ *ijn* where a′ ij

<sup>1</sup> Socioeconomic development is understood as "the process of transforming rural areas into an inhabitant-friendly environment, i.e., one which allows them to fulfil their needs and aspirations, particularly with regard to labour conditions and obtaining satisfactory income; access to public services and broadly defined cultural goods; a sense of participation in the life of the local community; a sense of agency in the ongoing transformation; etc." [19] (p. 13). According to the MROW study, "to obtain one evaluation that would characterise an object from many standard features, all standardised variables for each object should be summed. The evaluation of a variable that characterises an i-th object is called a 'synthetic variable'.

is the normalised value of the j-th feature in the i-th object (after the destimulant is changed to stimulant), n is number of objects, and mi is the weight factor of an i feature" [22].


#### *2.3. Content Analysis*

The authors of the present paper have carried out a broad analysis of scientific studies on the smart-village concept and broader rural development issues (in the context of demographic processes) as well as other publications: documents, declarations, reports, notes (see Sections 3 and 4). This desk research suggests that the main group of sources are documents drawn up in connection with the planned smart-village concept (including by the European Network for Rural Development and the European Commission). The authors also used the participant-observation method, taking part in the 9th and 11th meetings of the ENRD Thematic Group on Smart Villages; study visits were undertaken in two Finnish localities vying for smart-village status; at the 4th European Rural Parliament in Candás (Spain)—taking part actively in workshops on the smart-village approach—and within the framework of the group developing the Common Agricultural Policy Strategic Plan for 2021–2027 (smart villages section). The authors were also responsible for holding Poland's first *My SMART Village* competition to choose villages undertaking smart initiatives.<sup>2</sup>

#### **3. Results**

#### *3.1. Rural Decline: Where is the Problem?*

Demographic processes (internal migration above all) which shape the demographic and social/occupational structure of the rural population today are key factors determining the socioeconomic development of a given area. With the exception of suburban areas, in most European countries including Poland rural areas are becoming depopulated (the rural net migration rate is below zero), and the low birth rate (often close to zero) is unable to compensate for the population decline [23]. This relationship between the components of actual population growth is leading to the rural depopulation and consequently to the rural ageing. The existing demographic structure affects the functioning of entire local communities in aspects such as education, the labour market, healthcare and other public services. It is this last aspect that is currently at the focus of the discussion on adapting services to the needs of an ageing society. In Poland this problem is most often limited territorially to the central-eastern regions, in which rural residents are the oldest in Poland on average. Among the demographically oldest 100 rural and rural-urban communes, more than half are located in the east of the country, in Podlaskie province, and one-third are in Lubelskie province. The median share of people beyond retirement age in the overall commune population in this group is 24%, seven percentage points more than in Poland as a whole. These are relatively mono-functional agricultural areas with a permanent outflow of people. The depopulation process had already been diagnosed there in the 1980s [24]. Figure 2 confirms that the suburban areas of regional centres are relatively young, indicating a steady outflow of young residents from peripheral communes. The demographically youngest rural communities are found in western Poland, in Pomorskie province in particular. Such a perceptible territorial diversity of the population's age structure is—similarly to the diverse level of development—a consequence of two main factors: historical circumstances (post-World War II resettlement) and the polarisation of regional development (an outflow of residents from peripheral areas to the suburban zones of big cities) [25]. Spearman's rank correlation coefficient of these two

<sup>2</sup> The organiser was the Institute of Rural and Agricultural Development of the Polish Academy of Sciences, call for applications 3/2019 of the Polish Rural Network (KSOW). The project involved a competition for descriptions of smart-village initiatives, which contributed to disseminating and promoting the concept among rural residents, identifying a wide range of social and digital innovations emerging in rural areas, and presenting them in a knowledge bank.

spatial trends is rho = −0.600, i.e., the most underdeveloped areas are usually demographically old (cf. Figures 1 and 2).

**Figure 2.** Proportion of rural residents at retirement age in the total commune population. Source: [20] (p. 116).

Poland's regular Rural Development Monitoring (MROW) survey confirms that migration is a "silent moderator" of social and economic changes in rural areas [20] (p. 258). These changes can also be the result of a certain inertia of development in a given area, and at the same time a cause of further changes—both positive (in areas with immigration) and negative (in areas undergoing depopulation) (Figure 3). The emigration of rural residents drives the vicious cycle of collapse (underdevelopment), which can be described by cause-and-effect relations strengthened by negative population trends in many rural areas (more: [26–29]). Awareness of this process is even more important, as population changes are strongly interdependent with the level of rural development. Spearman's rank correlation coefficient is rho = 0.700 (cf. Figures 1 and 3).

Population changes recorded since Poland's accession to the EU deepen the tendencies observed for the beginning of the country's urbanisation process, which accelerated in the 1950s [30]. Areas where the population is increasing cover about one-third of rural and urban-rural communes in Poland and these are mainly suburban zones around large regional centres. Nearly 90% of communes located within the boundaries of functional urban areas (FUAs)<sup>3</sup> in provincial capitals show the highest population growth. These are areas of long-term immigration.

Increasing the number of inhabitants of rural areas takes place not only within the range of influence of provincial capitals but also around cities of subregional importance. However, it is a tendency determined by historical factors and more often characterises the cities of western rather than eastern Poland. In regional terms, the greatest increase in the rural population is observed in the communes from the Pomorskie, Podkarpackie and Wielkopolskie provinces. These regions are

<sup>3</sup> "A functional urban area consists of a city and its commuting zone. Functional urban areas therefore consist of a densely inhabited city and a less densely populated commuting zone whose labour market is highly integrated with the city" [31].

inhabited by indigenous people, with traditions of circular migration, relatively culturally (ethnically) homogeneous, with a strong sense of what is known as land attachment [32].

The communes with the deepest, permanent depopulation are located on the "eastern wall" (Podlaskie and Lubelskie provinces). The others are scattered along the provinces' borders of central Poland. The deep depopulation also enters the areas of what are known as the Western and Northern Lands, incorporated into Poland after World War II. The region underwent a profound economic transformation in the 1990s, which, however, did not stop the emigration. After Poland joined the EU, it was mainly emigration to Germany and Great Britain [33]. This problem concerns Opolskie province in particular.

**Figure 3.** Rural population change in 2005–2018. Source: own work based on the Local Data Bank of Statistics Poland (BDL GUS) data and [34] (p. 196–197).

The falling number of residents ("tax base") as a result of emigration reduces local-government budgets, leading to difficulties in providing day-to-day public services (e.g., in transport or culture). It also causes local authorities to hesitate to undertake infrastructure projects improving residents' lives and increasing a locality's attractiveness to prospective investors. Given the low number of potential users, this translates into high maintenance costs for such projects. A lack of economic stimuli then leads to relative mono-functionality of the local economy's structure, based on farming. A poorly developed labour market increases emigration, but such emigration is selective: those leaving are young people, women more often than men [35–37]. This in turn negatively affects the structure of the remaining population, now dominated by people at retirement age. The population density decreases, the distances between homesteads grow, which further exacerbates problems in providing services and necessary infrastructure. This system of inter-related events leads to loss of rural vitality, the consequence being rural decline [28].

The process of depopulation, although in a sense inevitable, encourages the scientific community and all the rural stakeholders to seek solutions that would limit the negative effects of emigration and its socioeconomic consequences. This has led to increasingly frequent questions about instruments that could be used to intervene at the present time as well as enabling the prevention of future problems caused by existing demographic trends (see: [38]).

#### *3.2. Development of Information and Communication Technologies in Rural Areas*

The measurable benefits of using state-of-the-art forms of telecommunications, which by their nature help overcome many inconveniences of the rural living, were already noticed in the 1980s and 1990s [39]. The purpose of new means of communication was to reduce the distance to public services, e.g., health care, educational, cultural or recreational services. Using technical innovations such as—at the time–telephones, faxes and non-portable computers was meant to contribute to halting rural outmigration and to revitalise rural areas experiencing infrastructural backwardness. The instrument promoted at the time was the telecottage—a local telecommunications centre equipped with the latest telecommunications tools, made available to residents and entrepreneurs to meet informational, cultural and the work-related needs [40].

The first telecottage was set up in the mid-1980s in Sweden. It was intended as a response to the growing 'brain drain' process. A joint initiative of the Swedish government, the local authorities and scientists, it revived the local community cut off from the outside world, enabling residents to acquire new skills (transit to an information society), launch collaborations and stimulate enterprises [41].

In the following years the Swedish idea was adapted elsewhere, initially in the Nordic countries and later also in the west of Europe and in Hungary. In the mid-1990s Poland also saw a similar initiative, involving a telecommunications centre in Kujawsko-Pomorskie province, but the idea was never put into practice [40]. It seems that 30 years ago it was a concept which in Poland's case was ahead of its time, especially in terms of infrastructure requirements. It was not until the late 1990s that rural areas were speedily supplied with land-line telephones, but then other technologies (computers, mobile phones, the internet) rapidly supplanted this form of communication [42]. The evolution of telecommunications in rural Poland is shown in Figure 4.

**Figure 4.** Rural land-line telephone subscribers and rural households with internet access. Source: own work based on BDL GUS data and [43,44] (p. 437, p. 327).

According to GUS data, in 2018 84.2% of Polish households had internet access, most of them via a broadband link [44] (p. 327). The difference between urban and rural areas was a mere 3.3 percentage points, although in 2005 access in cities had been twice as high (36% compared to 19% in rural areas) [43] (p. 437). Public statistics on spatial differentiation in internet access is only available at the provincial level, without a division into cities/towns and rural areas. These data show that the situation was the worst in provinces of central and eastern Poland, i.e., the part of the country with the highest percentage of less-developed communes (cf. Figure 1.).

A little more information is provided by data from the Office of Electronic Communications (UKE) aggregated to the local level (Figure 5). It shows that the most basic measures—internet

accessibility—have large inter- and intra-regional differences. The technically most developed base is found in the western regions, some areas around big cities, and isolated areas in the rest of the country. On the other hand, the least developed internet infrastructure measured in this way is found in south-eastern and central Poland and, with a few exceptions, in the east of the country.

**Figure 5.** Internet accessibility rate in rural areas<sup>4</sup> . Source: own work based on UKE data.

The interdependence of the accessibility of internet infrastructure and the level of socio-economic development has been confirmed statistically. Spearman's rank correlation coefficient is rho = 0.300 and is statistically significant (cf. Figures 1 and 5). It is not a strong interdependence; however, it should be remembered that it is calculated for the full set of communes (N = 2175). It is therefore justified to conclude that with the increase in the level of development, the provision of ICT infrastructure in rural areas also increases. The verification of this relation in five development levels (as in Figure 1) has shown that only one in five communes with a low or very low level of development have a high level of internet accessibility. However, one in two of the communes in the category with high and very high levels of development also have the highest level of internet accessibility (Figure 6).

Insufficient internet access is a problem that rural communities often try to solve when dealing with local authorities. The basis for such a conclusion is provided by the Communes Survey,<sup>5</sup> carried out as a part of the Rural Development Monitoring (MROW). The topic of internet access is discussed with village leaders in two out of three gatherings and meetings. However, as calculated by the authors the weaker the access to the internet the more often is this issue discussed: in 70% of cases in the low-access class and 58% in the high-access class. This shows that the financial needs of the villages are still in many cases focused on "hard" projects. The allocation of funds for digitisation of rural areas under the Digital Poland 2014–2020 Operational Programme (co-funded by the EU) is a reflection of this and, at the same time, an opportunity to overcome the infrastructural barrier. By February 2020, contracts for tasks of about €3bn had been signed [45]. The programme implementation plan assumes that about 37% of the total allocation will directly cover rural areas [46] (p. 53).

<sup>4</sup> The internet accessibility rate is measured as the ratio of the number of network terminations enabling internet services to be provided in a given area to the number of housing units in that area.

<sup>5</sup> The questionnaire form was filled in by the commune office. The response rate was 95% (N = 2064).

urban commune

© MROW 2018

high accessibility medium accessibility low accessibility

**Figure 6.** Internet accessibility rate structure according to socio-economic development level. Source: own work.

low medium high

#### *3.3. Smart Village, Meaning What?*

 Insofar as the telecottage idea emerged too soon for the technical (and awareness-related) possibilities of rural Poland, the currently discussed concept of smart villages appears to fit in well with current circumstances. The recommendations on the smart village idea recently developed in a collaboration between the Polish Rural Network (KSOW), the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, rural residents and researchers suggests some answers to the earlier question of what a smart village is (can be). These recommendations state that for the successful implementation of the concept, we need to [47]:


The fact that smart villages are not a fully developed or researched concept is reflected in the small number of scientific studies on the issue. The great majority of such publications are overviews, due to the fact that work still continues on determining what smart villages are (or will be), what they should be like in the future, and what instruments would be used for their implementation in the EU's

future financial framework [48]. The concept is often criticised for its lack of scientific foundations, although some authors have sought to place it within some kind of theoretical framework [49–53]. B. Slee remarks that "the evolution of support for community level development generally and what are termed smart villages has happened almost without reference to theory" [51] (p. 645). He situates the smart-village concept in regional development theories (centre-peripheries), Florida's creative classes, or Putnam's social capital theory. A. Davies considers the ties between smart technologies, political strategies and the vitality of the rural population in the context of the Internet of Things (IoT) [53]. A different approach is offered by M. Zwoli ´nska-Ligaj, D. Guzal-Dec and M. Adamowicz, who have tried to operationalise the smart-village concept. However, they also conclude that such an approach "creates many problems in the way research reflects new factors of development" [54] (p. 271), and point to the weakness of data from public statistics related to innovation and technological changes on the local level.

The authors also wish to contribute to these deliberations, offering their own theoretical analysis. We would like to suggest considering an analogy between the smart-village concept and the concept of sustainable development. The analogy has also been recognised by other researchers (more: [50,55,56]). Both these approaches seek a compromise between environmental, economic and social goals, consisting in a game of limitations in utilising all forms of capital. It involves improving residents' quality of life (the social order) while necessarily optimising current economic benefits for households as well as local government and businesses (the economic order) and ensuring continual nature and landscape protection (the environmental order). It seems that some years ago sustainable development was—and today smart villages can be—a concept invoked in legal regulations, political documents and development strategies at different management levels (e.g., Poland's National Regional Development Strategy 2030, adopted in 2019). This could be a "daughter concept" seeking harmony among three components: the natural environment, the economy and society, highlighting the social factor in the name of social justice, access to services, standard of living, life surroundings and wellbeing. It is already a concept based on overcoming territorial barriers (reducing distances) experienced by rural residents when accessing public services, in order to create a responsible and desirable living environment.

#### **4. Discussion**

Some researchers believe that the smart-village concept draws upon the equivalent concept of smart cities [49,57–63]. However, the problems faced by urban and rural areas seem to be completely different, therefore the solutions proposed during implementation of these two approaches are also different. The authors of one study on smart villages conclude that one of the biggest challenges is how to overcome the emigration from rural areas to conurbations, and ask a fundamental question: "what smart services, provided by whom, how and at what cost could be provided to ease the situation?" [63] (p. 3). In this context, it seems equally important to ask not only about the scope but also the means of providing such services.

In the context of areas struggling with problems caused by negative demographic trends, we can speak of smart solutions in three aspects: public services, public management, and economic activity in a broad sense (Table 1).

The first group includes services provided mainly in traditional forms by local government. The steadily diminishing population, decreasing population density and increasing percentage of the elderly will reduce the financial capacity to continue these services. On the other hand, demand for some specific services, e.g., related to healthcare or elderly care, will grow. L. Philip and F. Williams [64] noted this in their study, mentioning such solutions as digitally supported communication platforms or assisted living technologies. This forces us to think about how to meet these needs, and new technologies are one of the tools proposed in development policies being drafted for the coming years [65,66]. Apart from solutions for basic social services, the idea of smart villages also envisages using innovative solutions in transport and power supply.



Source: own work based on [67] and materials from meetings of the European Network for Rural Development (ENRD) Thematic Group on Smart Villages [68].

The second group of smart solutions is intended for the public administration. The solutions that seem especially important from the point of view of the rural areas being considered here are those designed to rationalise the performance of some of its tasks, e.g., in waste management. Equally important, although requiring greater involvement and skills from residents, are e-administration tools, which research has shown are still inadequately developed in Poland, partly due to barriers of awareness in society [69,70].

One important objective of smart villages is not just to uphold the vitality of depopulating areas but to revitalise them as well. The solutions proposed here are related to farming itself as well as to other economic sectors not linked to agriculture. Enterprise in a broad sense is the least identified and, it seems, most difficult area of implementation. It depends on many aspects that are of a highly individual nature (impossible to standardise), such as businesses' financial resources, competences as well as residents' needs.

For the smart-village concept to function it requires the harmonisation of several elements: initiatives and collaboration aimed at proposing new solutions, necessary infrastructure related to information and communication technology, institutions activating and coordinating the work, and finally, the provision of services which would respond to the needs of local communities on the one hand, while enabling local authorities to alleviate the effects of emigration on the other (e.g., by reducing the cost of providing services). Implementations of the concept carried out so far, however, show that the above elements will not become reality without appropriate competence, skills and changes in rural residents' perception of new technologies (awareness of the need for them)—this applies both to the recipients of smart solutions and to the people and maybe even institutions that will provide those solutions.

These requirements appear in the plans to support smart villages in the future Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), among others in Finland [71] and Poland [72]. In both countries support is planned in two ways:


The link between these levels of support can be provided by what are called innovation brokers, selected from LAGs and national rural network structures. Thus the initial government proposals

take into account, to a certain extent, the elements of smart villages: both the basic ones (such the ICT infrastructure), but also those related to the expertise and activity of the rural residents, above all their leaders (Figure 7).

**Figure 7.** Main elements of smart village 'space'. Source: own work based on [73] (p. 441).

GUS data from 2019 [74] indicate that, of the people who do not use the internet on a daily basis, as much as 68% see no such need and over half justify it with their lack of skills. This is hard to imagine, however, when we see how common smartphones or notebooks have become as elements of the daily lives of the Polish and, more broadly, the European population, offering online access to all kinds of resources. Excessive costs of ensuring internet accessibility are indicated by a fifth of those polled, while some 14% cite overcoming an aversion to the internet as a barrier (p. 2). The results of the Social Diagnosis from 2015 enable us to conclude that rural residents' competence in using the latest devices is increasing, including among the elderly [75]. There are also other studies indicating that this group uses new technologies increasingly often and has a more positive attitude towards them [76,77]. The need to digitise rural areas has been recognised in research carried out in other countries, to mention the United States, Germany, Italy and Slovenia [60,78]. At the same time, access to fast internet networks is just one link in the entire chain of a process that also includes issues of adapting to the new technologies and matching smart solutions to the needs of local communities. It needs remembering, however, that in practice the implementation of the concept in question could take a dozen (or a few dozen) years, which means that the potential beneficiaries will be people who already function very well in a world based on new technologies.

#### **5. Conclusions**

The attention of rural stakeholders is turning to the concept of smart villages, an idea that raises great hopes for improving rural residents' standard of living. Successful development based on the concept of the smart village is conditional on relatively good access to the village internet. Without it, there is no access to digital technologies and further to smart initiatives based on digital solutions. Research has shown that only one in five communes with a low or very low level of development have high internet access. At the same time, more than half of the rural areas facing decline have a low level of accessibility to the internet infrastructure (which may also sometimes mean a lack of it). The authors confirmed the hypothesis that with the decrease in the level of development the provision of ICT infrastructure in rural areas also decreases. Although research on smart villages is not yet advanced, it would seem that given the possibility of such solutions being co-financed from European

funds, the main barrier to implementing the idea are a lack of skills and confidence in new technologies among people who do not use them on a daily basis. As data on rural residents' access to and use of computers, the internet or smartphones suggest, however, innovative solutions are increasingly being used by people who will become beneficiaries of smart initiatives in the coming years. It is worth underlining that the competence of entities responsible for local development will be equally important for smart villages to be a success.

In view of the above, we posit that the smart-village concept should not be limited to the conditions created by developing technologies, but should be more open, i.e., receptive to social innovations. By these we mean not only introducing unique solutions but also implementing already existing ones, albeit in a new social context—an ageing society or rural decline. The solutions in question are intended to respond to the needs of a specific local community as well as to lead to lasting, positive changes in a given social group. This can involve innovative products, smart services or processes enabling different solutions to be found for typical social problems in local communities, in line with the motto "a better life in rural areas" [15] (p. 1).

We see a certain analogy between the smart-village concept and the sustainable-development concept. In both these concepts, attention is drawn to maintaining a balance between the economy, society and the natural environment. This should improve the quality of life of residents but take account of current economic benefits of different groups as well as the environment they live in. In this context, it is worth mentioning U. von der Leyen's declaration on measures aimed at adjusting to the digital age: "I want Europe to strive for more by grasping the opportunities from the digital age within safe and ethical boundaries" [79] (p. 13).

The issue outlined here leads to one more observation: that the smart-village concept is not completely new. Similar ideas to take advantage of new technologies have appeared before, and the current technological progress allows us to conceive that today's initiatives have a greater chance of success. However, it is worth referring to earlier experiences in order to adapt the present intervention in the best possible way to both the needs and the capacity of local communities and their institutional environment. Especially since work on the new framework of European funds for 2021–2027 is about to reach the crucial phase when decisions will be taken on how much funding will go to smart villages.

∗

This article was written just before the coronavirus pandemic. During the pandemic, the authors have added this paragraph, also at the suggestion of reviewers. The whole world of science is observing this new situation and trying to draw conclusions from the current facts. We have started thinking differently about the future. We have undoubtedly entered a world of permanent changes. Will the "corona crisis" deepen the processes of depopulation of peripheral zones and at the same time increase the concentration of population in suburban areas? Will we take advantage of the possibilities offered by virtual communication, remote working, on-line consumption and telemedicine, and will there be a renaissance of villages remote from urban civilisation? What is happening is a "process" and as we observe it we will acquire arguments to determine possible scenarios. Today, however, we can already see that the emergence of this crisis has shown both certain weaknesses and benefits in the implementation of this concept. The undoubted benefits include, among others, the rapid acquisition of competences by people of different ages, development of on-line services, and above all—in the hinterland—"taming the internet".

**Author Contributions:** Conceptualisation, Ł.K. and M.S.; methodology, Ł.K. and M.S.; formal analysis, Ł.K. and M.S.; investigation, Ł.K. and M.S.; resources, Ł.K. and M.S.; writing—original draft preparation, Ł.K. and M.S.; writing—review and editing, Ł.K. and M.S.; visualisation, Ł.K.; supervision, M.S. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

**Funding:** This research received no external funding.

**Acknowledgments:** The study uses data from the Rural Development Monitoring (MROW) project carried out jointly by the European Fund for the Development of Polish Villages (EFRWP) and the Institute of Rural and Agricultural Development, Polish Academy of Sciences (IRWiR PAN). The data concern internet accessibility in rural areas (source: Office of Electronic Communications–UKE and the Commune Survey) and the level of socioeconomic development of rural and urban-rural communes.

**Conflicts of Interest:** The authors declare no conflict of interest.

#### **References**


© 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

### *Article* **Farmers' Intentions to Lease Forestland: Evidence from Rural China**

#### **Xiaoyong Li <sup>1</sup> , Giuseppe T. Cirella <sup>2</sup> , Yali Wen <sup>1</sup> and Yi Xie 1,\***


Received: 15 February 2020; Accepted: 5 March 2020; Published: 6 March 2020

**Abstract:** In the last decade, despite considerable research developed for the forestland leasing market, little has been published in terms of econometric results on determinants of intentions and behaviors of Chinese farmers. With respect to leasing forestland, this study uses a Bayesian logit model to examine the factors that influence farmers' intentions, using household data collected in one county in 2017. The results show that farmers' past experience of leasing forestlands have significant impacts on their leasing intentions. Once farmers participated in leasing in or leasing out forestland in the last five years, it was shown that they will have stronger intentions of doing so in the future. Farmers will neither lease in or out forestland if the leasing profits are less than the profits originated from forestland management. As such, household head age, household population, proportion of income from nonfarm sources to total income, and security of rights to forestland use are significant factors in influencing farmers' decisions on leasing in forestland. On the other hand, household head age and educational level, proportion of income from nonfarm sources to total income, and importance of forestland in terms of inheritance are significant factors in influencing farmers' decisions on leasing it out. Results imply that institutional and market factors, which have impacts on transaction costs, are important for farmers in making decisions on forestland leases. Policy implications to reduce institutional intervention are discussed.

**Keywords:** land lease market; decision making; forest market factors; rural land rights; China

#### **1. Introduction**

Since the early 1980s, a series of economic reforms have been launched in China, as well as a number of market-driven mechanisms that have been implemented to improve resource allocation efficiency and productivity—partly designed to promote the development of the land rental market [1–6]. Market-based mechanisms are thought to be able to play an important role in improving the use of input factors and the economies of scale for land management [7–9]. Due to constitutional provisions of land property rights, rural land is collectively owned and managed. In the process of de-collectivization of rural land, collective ownership is not allowed to be changed and use rights of rural land is contracted to the member of the collective, i.e., the farmer, for a period ranging from 30 to 70 years [10]. The rural land market in China is substantially a land lease market with limited usage rights circulated within the market. In this market, leasing in forestland is equivalent as buying forestland usage rights and leasing out is equal to selling it outright. Farmers' intentions of leasing land therefore play a dominant role on the development of the market—forming the basis for this study.

While forestland accounts for more than two thirds of the rural landscapes in southern China, forestland lease markets have received little research attention compared to the considerable amount of attention farmland markets garner [9,11]. This is probably due in part to the fact that reforms in

farmland tenure occurred before forestland tenure. The farmland tenure reform was initiated in 1978 by creating a Household Contract Responsibility System and granting usage rights of farmland to farm households [4]. Following farmland tenure reform, the initial collective forestland tenure reform in 1981 aimed to distribute forestland to individual households and fix three issues pertaining to collective forest tenure, that being: (1) clarification of rights to the forest (i.e., for family plots), (2) delimitation of boundaries of private plots (i.e., responsibility hills), and (3) establishing a forest responsibility system (i.e., collective management system) [10,12–14]. However, the reform was terminated by the central government in 1987 since it was widely believed that large scaled deforestation was taking place as a result [13]. Therefore, before a new round of collective forest tenure reforms would be undertaken in China in 2003 [15], most collective forestlands were collectively managed until 1987. This caused inefficiency to the forest management system resulting in collective forests having a lack of professionals and an inequity of farmers benefitting from the harvest.

These new reforms are regarded as a de-collectivization step [12], aimed at promoting efficiency and equity of the whole collective forest management system. Rural households are granted forestland usage rights through clarification and confirmation of property rights of forests and forestland. It is widely held that farmers have the motivation to enhance forest investment and management when they are convinced greater incentives and security exist in terms of its use in relation to forestland rights. Together with favorable policies, it has been observed that reducing production costs and enhancing profitability of forest production are aftereffects [13,15]. The reforms are still ongoing, with a goal to make forest management more profitable for farmers by eliminating any existing institutional barriers, such as the difficulty for farmers to obtain a loan by mortgaging the usage right of forestland and ownership of stumpages.

More recently, a few studies were undertaken to investigate China's forestland lease market with specific focuses on fundamental issues of development of the forest market (e.g., Kong and Du [16], Nie [17], and Xie et al. [11]. Kong and Du [16] examined whether farmers had the right to participate in the forestland lease market, particularly the right to lease out forestland use rights. They found that transferability of farmers' land was secured by current land tenure system and farmers were free to decide whether to participate in the market or not. Nie [17] found that current market mechanisms lacked efficiency. That is, there were high transaction costs for seeking lease information and contracting agreements. The market prices for leasing forestland were not transparent and farmers had inadequate knowledge about their forestland value, therefore, suffering in terms of economic loss when leasing out forestland at a low price. Xie et al. [11] examined profitability of farmer leasing out forestlands in the market compared to timber benefit by way of self-management. The study showed that, due to the limitation of China's logging quota system, farmers were unable to harvest all mature stands, hence, their timber benefits were lower than the land rent.

The incidence of leased forestland transactions seems much higher than that of farmland [18]. This is explained by several econometric studies at the farm household level. Xu et al. [9] examined forestland transactions, their scope and motivation, and the characteristics of households participating in the market for forestland in eight villages of Lin'An and Anji counties located in Zhejiang Province. Using household survey data collected from 2009, they found that households in Anji were more likely to lease out land and less likely to lease in than households in Lin'An. The age of the household head, social status of the household head (i.e., whether they were a village leader or not), population size, and number of laborers in the household did not seem to have much explanatory power in farmers' decisions to lease in or lease out forestland. The educational level of household heads was not statistically significant for leasing in behaviors but was slightly significant for leasing out. If there were any household member hired by a business or the government, the household would be more likely to lease out forestland. The most apparent and significant factors for a household's likelihood to participate in land leases were household income and ratio of non-agricultural income. It also was apparent the number of parcels of land households owned affected their decisions. The satisfaction with the transaction price was statistically significant in the lease in and lease out model.

Xu et al. [19] reviewed recent econometric studies about factors affecting farmers' decisions to lease land with a focus on research characteristics, including: analytical framework, regression techniques, data features, and findings. Their synthesis of existing literature indicates that a similar analytical framework is employed by different researchers. It confirms four categories of lease determinants: demographic characteristics, policy variables, forestland conditions, and economic variables. These determinants have been widely discussed in terms of farmers' decision making related to forest management [20]. Demographic characteristics are most frequently used by researchers and can be observed in all cited research, while regression coefficients of demographic characteristics and relating variables are not statistically significant. Policy variables consist of farmers' evaluation of the reform, logging quota system, and regulation of the forestland market. Economic variables include forest management costs and revenue. In addition, all research isolates, to some degree, farmers' leasing in and leasing out behaviors by employing two separate models. Similar research findings of factors affecting farmers' participation in forestland transactions have been examined by Hong et al. [21]. Zhang et al. [22] highlighted the effect of off-farm employment on forestland transfers in China using a simultaneous-equation Tobit model estimation verified that off-farm employment is endogenous to farmer' decision to lease their forestland.

On a global-scale, forestland markets signal a large body of literature from countries that exhibit a sound market economy. In parallel, there are increasing studies from other countries experiencing this transition, i.e., from a centralized market to an open market economy, that also indicate this trend [23–25]. Driving forces of forestland markets, such as forestland prices, physical characteristics of the forestland, and buyer perception and intentions, are major research focuses conducted in the countries with sound market economies [26–31]. Comparatively, studies in countries that are going through a transformative state, indicate the emergence of forestland markets and overlook impacts from institutional reform and related remodeling efforts. Though forestland markets are still underdeveloped, forest plantation farm households have started to rent in forestland from familiar local farmers with government support via cost-sharing in Vietnam [32]. As such, governmental support has promoted development of forestland markets in Uganda [33] and Ethiopia [34,35]; however, land speculation is active in both countries and requires further procurement controls. In Romania, large areas of forestland have shifted from public to private ownership [36], promoting forestland market competition [37,38]. Along with the furthering of market-oriented economic development, forestland markets in these countries will need to embrace significant reforms that better understand the varying actors and perceptive roles that support local livelihoods—via subsistence, commercial, and ecological contributions [25].

The objective of this study is to bridge an understanding on farmer' past lease experience and future lease intentions, and then provide references for a predictive element for the development of the future of the forestland lease market. Individuals' past experience has been recognized as a significant influence on their behavior in several studies, e.g., investigating leisure choice [39] and recycling behaviors [40,41]. Past experience has also been regarded as the best predictor of conservation behavior [42]; however, there are limited studies specific to the forestland lease market. As such, farmers performing as dominant actors, in leasing forestland usage rights, focalized on their leasing intentions formulates the practicality and significance of this study. The incorporation of this research with existing studies (i.e., investigating development of the forestland market based on studies of farmers' lease behaviors [19,21,22]) presents a more complete approach in predictive development of the forestland lease market in China. A conceptual model and econometric approach are presented in Section 2. Data collection and descriptive statistics are provided in Section 3. At length, empirical results are illustrated in Section 4, followed by a discussion and conclusion in Section 5.

#### **2. Model Design**

The derived conceptual model investigates farmers' intentions of leasing forestland. The conceptual model consists of key factors that affect intention and factor in aspects of decision making and economic viability. Specific empirical specifications, in terms of corresponding variable selection, are integrated and estimated in the model for robustness.

#### *2.1. Conceptual Model*

We applied a profit-maximization function by utilizing an approach presented by Johansson and Lofgren [43]. The intended examination of leasing forestland, by representative households as well as identifying factors that affect farmers' decisions on leasing, is a core focus of the model. Our interest is focalized on farmers' land leasing decisions in which the conceptual model considers decision-based variables, that being: lease in only, lease out only, both lease in and lease out, and neither lease in or lease out. As such, in reference to a number of studies [15,44] and fieldwork observations, farmers in developing countries also tend to pay little or no attention to the amenity value of forests, hence, we isolated the physical value of the forest and timber yield of forestland in our model. In comparison to other models (i.e., specifically investigating forestland markets in China [22]), our model differs, respectively, in the decomposition of timber profit into terms of revenue and cost. The conceptual model, as representative of households, is assumed to maximize the profit from timber production, as formulated via Equation (1).

$$\begin{aligned} \max \pi &= \pi(\mathbf{A}\_{0'}\mathbf{A}\_{\mathbf{b}'}\mathbf{A}\_{\mathbf{b}'}\mathbf{Z}, \mathbf{L}, \mathbf{I}) \\ = \mathsf{R}(\mathbf{A}\_{0'}\mathbf{A}\_{\mathbf{b}'}\mathbf{A}\_{\mathbf{b}'}\mathbf{Z}, \mathbf{L}, \mathbf{I}) - \mathsf{C}\_{\mathbf{t}}(\mathbf{A}\_{0'}\mathbf{A}\_{\mathbf{b}'}\mathbf{A}\_{\mathbf{s}'}\mathbf{Z}, \mathbf{L}, \mathbf{I}) - \mathsf{C}\_{\mathbf{b}}(\mathbf{A}\_{\mathbf{b}'}\mathbf{Z}, \mathbf{L}, \mathbf{I}) + \pi\_{\mathbf{s}}(\mathbf{A}\_{\mathbf{s}}; \mathbf{Z}, \mathbf{L}, \mathbf{I}) \end{aligned} \tag{1}$$

where: R( ) is a revenue function of timber production; Ct( ) is a function to measure cost in planting, managing, and harvesting forest; Cb( ) is a cost function for leasing in forestland; and πs( ) is a profit function for leasing out forestland. Moreover, A<sup>0</sup> is a vector of the characteristics of forestland area currently held by one household, A<sup>b</sup> is a vector of the characteristics of forestland leased in, and A<sup>s</sup> is a vector of the characteristics of forestland leased out. In terms of decision-based variables, if a farmer is grouped in lease in only, A<sup>b</sup> is kept and A<sup>s</sup> is removed. If a farmer is grouped in lease out only, A<sup>b</sup> is removed and A<sup>s</sup> is kept. If a farmer is grouped in both lease in and lease out, both A<sup>b</sup> and A<sup>s</sup> are kept. If a farmer is grouped in neither lease in or lease out, both A<sup>b</sup> and A<sup>s</sup> are removed. Z is a vector of the characteristics of a household, including household head (i.e., denoted as HHC) and household (i.e., denoted as HC). L is a vector of the characteristics of past leasing experiences of the household. I is a vector of the characteristics of perceived institutional impacts from the household in terms of the collective forest tenure reform.

Let A ∗ b and A ∗ <sup>s</sup> denote the optimal decision to lease in and lease out forestland behaviors, respectively. If the farmers are grouped in lease in only, the profit function can be written as π A0, A<sup>∗</sup> b ; Z , and satisfies the following notation in terms of Equations (2)–(4).

$$
\pi(\mathbf{A}\_0, \mathbf{A}\_\mathbf{b}^\*; \mathbf{Z}, \mathbf{L}, \mathbf{I}) \ge \pi(\mathbf{A}\_0; \mathbf{Z}, \mathbf{L}, \mathbf{I}) \tag{2}
$$

$$
\pi(\mathbf{A}\_{0\prime}\mathbf{A}\_{\mathbf{b}\prime}^\*\mathbf{Z}, \mathbf{L}\_\prime\mathbf{I}) \ge \pi(\mathbf{A}\_{0\prime}\mathbf{A}\_{\mathbf{s}\prime}^\*\mathbf{Z}, \mathbf{L}\_\prime\mathbf{I})\tag{3}
$$

$$
\pi \Big( \mathbf{A}\_{0\prime} \mathbf{A}\_{\mathbf{b}\prime}^\* ; \mathbf{Z}\_{\prime} \mathbf{L}\_{\prime} \mathbf{I} \Big) \geq \pi \Big( \mathbf{A}\_{0\prime} \mathbf{A}\_{\mathbf{b}\prime}^\* \mathbf{A}\_{\mathbf{s}\prime}^\* ; \mathbf{Z}\_{\prime} \mathbf{L}\_{\prime} \mathbf{I} \Big) \tag{4}$$

where: π(A0; Z, L, I) is the profit function for keeping the current management scale, π(A0, A<sup>∗</sup> s ; Z, L, I) is the profit function for only leasing out forestland, and π A0, A<sup>∗</sup> b , A<sup>∗</sup> s ; Z, L, I is the profit function for both leasing in and leasing out forestland.

Equation (2) suggests that the farmers' decisions to lease in forestland depends on the following attributes: whether it is currently held, characteristics of the household, timber production costs, cost of leasing in, past leasing experiences, and perceived institutional impact. Equation (3) can be used to provide additional interpretation for leasing in forestland, compared to Equation (2), i.e., the decision to lease in depends on the profit margin of leasing out. Equation (4) can be interpreted similarly to Equation (2) and Equation (3) with further integrated interpretation from both of these equations. Furthermore, the probability of the decisions grouped in as lease in only is written using Equation (5).

$$\mathbf{P}\left(\pi = \pi \Big(\mathbf{A}\_{0\prime} \mathbf{A}\_{\mathrm{b}\prime}^{\*} ; \mathbf{Z}\_{\prime} \ \mathbf{L}\_{\prime} \mathbf{I}\Big)\right) = \mathbf{g}\left(\mathbf{A}\_{0\prime} \mathbf{z}\mathbf{Z}\prime \ \mathbf{L}\_{\prime} \mathbf{I}\right) \tag{5}$$

where: g( ) is a probability function which denotes that the probability to be grouped in the lease in only function which has been originally held forestland and characteristics of the household head and household having impacts on cost of timber production and forestland lease in and profit from forestland lease out.

These factors are employed to indicate how the heterogeneity of farmers' characteristics vary in terms of revenue, cost, and profit in timber production as well as farmers' participation in the forestland market. We enumerate the farmers' decisions on land rental using the following number classes: 1 = lease in only, 2 = lease out only, 3 = both lease in and lease out, and 4 = neither lease in or lease out. The number classes are used to differentiate the four groups without any implication that one group would be superior or inferior to another. Hence, the four groups are depicted using Equation (6).

$$\mathbf{P(y=i)} = \mathbf{g(A\_0, \text{HHC, HC, L, I})} \tag{6}$$

where: y denotes the group of the farmer, and i is valued 1, 2, 3, or 4.

#### *2.2. Empirical Model Specification*

We specified our empirical model specifications upon the conceptual model of framing and existing literature to measure the factors that affect farmers' intentions of leasing forestland (Table 1).


**Table 1.** Variables selections and assumed impacts.

We used two variables to denote heterogeneity of forestlands based on the reviewed literature. The first variable is forestland area (i.e., denoted as area) was used to describe the forestland held and

managed by each household. We assumed that forestland area has an ambiguous impact on farmers' intentions to lease forestland—as such—existing studies reveal competing results from the impacts of forestland area [22,45–47]. The second variable is whether farmers treat forestland as inherited (i.e., denoted as inherited). Once farmers treated forestland as inherited, they usually become less active in forest management [20]. Similarly, these farmers have appeared to be inactive in the leasing of forestland—per se [47]. We, therefore, assume farmers' treatment of forestland as inherited as a negative impact both on their intention of leasing in and leasing out the land.

We employed two variables to denote the characteristics for the household head (i.e., HHC). First, we assume that the impact of the age of the household head (i.e., denoted as age) on leasing in and leasing out of forestland is ambiguous. The age of the household head had been found to have a negative impact both on leasing in [45] and leasing out of forestland [47,48]; however, some studies contested that age had no influence on forestland lease in [16] or lease out behavior [11,19,46]. Second, we assume the educational level of the household head is ambiguous (i.e., denoted as education) due to the majority of previous studies that concluded the effect as not significant [29,31,46] with a few studies showing a positive effect [18].

Household characteristics variables (i.e., HC) include the number of laborers in a family unit (i.e., denoted as labor) and income from nonfarm work (i.e., denoted as nonfarm). The more labor force a household had, the more likely the household would lease in forestland [45,46] and the less likely they were to lease it out [47]. Farmers can get nonfarm income not only by working for others (i.e., a wage income), but also from doing additional business dealings. Nonfarm income is measured by aggregating wage income and business income. A higher nonfarm income implies that the return on aggregate labor and capital input in nonfarm activities as well as opportunity costs of working in forestry is high. We assumed that nonfarm income has a positive impact on leasing out forestland [30,32]; however, the impact of nonfarm income on leasing in forestland was ambiguous since contradicting results exist from previous studies [45,47,49].

Only one institutional variable was used by incorporating security of forestland usage rights (i.e., denoted as security). Previous studies show that insecurity of land property rights resulted in a lack of incentive for farmers to intensify forest investment and expand forest management scale [13,44,50]. Though it can be noted that there are policy incentives for forestland leasing in other areas of China, for example in Zhejiang Province [45], we did not find any such policies in our study area.

Regarding impact of past experience of leasing forestlands, we employed three variables as indicators. The first variable is whether farmers leased in (i.e., denoted as wea\_in) or leased out forestlands (i.e., denoted as wea\_out) in the past five years. Intuitively, farmers who have experiences in leasing forestlands might have a better understanding on how to lease forestland, which could cause variability in intentions between farmers with experience versus not. In order to capture a more detailed impact from past experience, we employed a second variable of whether farmers had difficulty in leasing in (i.e., denoted as easy\_in) or leasing out (i.e., denoted as easy\_out) forest land in the past five years. We assumed that farmers with such difficulty might have less intention of leasing forestland in the future. It has been proved, however, that once transaction costs of leasing forestlands are lowered, the leasing effect becomes more active [45]. A third variable was assigned to whether forestland lease in or lease out profitable existed (i.e., denoted as profit\_in and profit\_out), respectively. The third variable assumed to have a similar impact as the second variable on farmers' leasing intention. The timber price was used as a proxy variable to measure farmers' profit of lease from forestland. When timber prices rose, lease in became more active. Conversely, once timber price lower, lease out became more active—according to Zhang et al. [22].

*Land* **2020**, *9*, 78

Noticeably, very few farmers both leased in and leased out forestlands in our observation. Therefore, we specified our focus on farmers' intention of either leasing in or leasing out by utilizing the following two equations (i.e., Equations (7) and (8)) to formulate our reduced empirical models.

$$\mathbf{P}(\mathbf{y}=1) = \mathbf{f}\begin{pmatrix} \text{area}, \text{inheritud, age, education, labor, nounfarm,} \\ \text{security}, \text{weak\\_in, easy\\_in, profit\\_in} \end{pmatrix} \tag{7}$$

$$\mathbf{P}(\mathbf{y}=2) = \mathbf{f}\left(\begin{array}{c} \text{area}, \text{inherited, age, education, labor, nounfarm,} \\ \text{security}, \text{wa\\_out}, \text{easy\\_out}, \text{profit\\_out} \end{array}\right) \tag{8}$$

Equation (7) is a lease in model where *y* is equal to 1 and Equation (8) is a lease out model where *y* is equal to 2.

#### *2.3. Model Estimation*

The specified models were estimated by adopting Bayesian logit regression models in which farmers' responded intention of leasing in or leasing out forestlands were the dependent variables. In the models, farmers who had answered "Yes" indicating that they have intentions of leasing in or leasing out forestland was coded as one. Merged responses of "No" and "I don't know" were placed into a single category and coded as zero by following Sanchez and Morchio's [51] and Groothuis and Whitehead's [52] analyses. Bayesian methods can randomly sample and estimate individual-specific parameters [53] as well as consider model uncertainty by taking into account various combination of models to minimize the subjective judgment [54]. Bayesian analyses provide a robust estimation approach by using not only the data but also existing know-how about model parameters. They also allow one to introduce stochastic conditions in the posterior distribution of parameters to address estimation challenges in the empirical model (e.g., excessive multi-collinearity among explanatory variables as described by Hair et al. [55], Western and Jackman [56], and Willis and Perlack [57]).

According to the Bayesian theorem [58], the posterior density of the parameters of the independent variable is proportional to the likelihood of reported knowledge given model parameters (i.e., β), and knowledge of the prior probability distribution. The prior distribution of β <sup>j</sup> (j = 1, 2, 3, . . . , m) where m is the number of independent variables was assumed to be normally distributed with β<sup>j</sup> ∼ N(µ<sup>i</sup> , σ 2 j ) in respect to Congdon's [59] work. In this study, µ<sup>i</sup> was set to 0 and σ to 10,000. The random-walk Metropolis-Hastings sampling method, a default setting in the Bayesian calculation provided by Software Stata 15, was used to estimate the posterior distribution [60–62]. Metropolis-Hastings sampling is a general algorithm that releases the assumption in Gibbs sampling that proposed distributions are the posterior conditionals. Random-walk is the most commonly used Metropolis-Hastings algorithm when simulating candidate samples from a Gaussian proposal distribution that randomly perturbs the current state of the chain [63–65]. The coefficients of the explanatory variables were calculated by 10,000 iterations of the sampling based on the Monte Carlo errors with a burn-in of an initial 1,000 iterations [66].

#### **3. Methodology**

We define the study area where we conducted data collection at the farm household level. A description of the general characteristics of our data are also noted.

#### *3.1. Study Area*

We conducted data collection in Ningdu County of Jiangxi Province. Jiangxi was one of the four provinces to host pilot projects for the reforms implemented during the collective forest property rights restructuring in 2004 [15]. In consequence, Jiangxi was considered an ideal study area for the research especially since its implementation of collective forest tenure reform and subsequent emergence as a forestland market [11,15,67]. As one of the key forestry counties, Ningdu is ranked fourth in terms of acreage of forestland province-wide. The total forestland is estimated at around 300,000 hectares. The forest coverage is high at 71.3%, which is 10% higher than the provincial average. Collective forestlands are 280,000 hectares, accounting for 93% of total forestlands while the rest are state-owned. The total standing forest stock is 9.7 million cubic meters. On average, each farmer owns 0.5 hectares of forestlands (i.e., more than 10 times 0.05 hectares of crop land from the county level). Forestlands are crucial resources to local households. As a result of the reform, more than 90% of collective forestlands usage rights and ownership were transferred to farm households. This process was regarded as de-collectivization of collective forestland, generating more secure and beneficial rights to use it at the farmer-level [12,13].

Forestland lease market emerged along with increasing transfer of usage rights of forestland from collective to individual farm households in Ningdu. This provided us with ample local-based evidence to form a sound understanding of development for the ongoing forestland market. The Ningdu Forestry Administration Bureau set up an agency providing services as policy consultation, forestland demand or supply information distribution, auction, bidding, and assistance of the contract signing. This universal practice facilitated development of the lease forestland market throughout Jiangxi Province [11]. The agency started to collect data of forestland leasing based on the transfers of contracts signed in-house from 2006. The data presents leased forestland with an area per case larger than 10 hectares (Figure 1). The data provided the general dynamics of the lease forestland market from 2006 to 2016—note that inadequate information of single cases of leased forestland with a scale of smaller than 10 hectares was not available.

**Figure 1.** Dynamics of leased forestland with areas per case larger than 10 hectares.

As noted in Figure 1, the lease forestland market fluctuated sharply during the period from 2006 to 2016. In isolation, from 2006 to 2008, the leased forestland continued to be more active and reached a summit of 11,091 hectares in 2008, while from 2008 to 2010, the leased forestland kept decreasing and reached a low of 857 hectares in 2010. Noticeably, China State Council announced that the collective forest tenure reform was to be implemented nationwide in 2008—at the same time the lease forestland price reached a summit in Ningdu County. From 2010 to 2013, the lease forestland market experienced recovery and rapid development and reached 11,766 hectares in 2013. We believe that the announcement released by the China State Forestry Administration that all necessary transfer of collective forestland from the collective to the individual farm households were to be completed in 2012 had a positive impact on the development of the lease forestland market. During this period, China State Forestry endorsed a document encouraging forestland lease and scale management of forests. From 2013 to 2016, the forestland lease continued to decrease and reached a new low of 120.1 hectares in 2016. At this point, China State Council conducted a nationwide inspection on the finished transfer of usage rights of forestlands which aimed to resolve existing conflicts [68].

The fluctuation of leased forestland in our study area implied that the previous forestland leasing will have an impact on the current situation as well as significant impact on the future market. All leased forestland recorded by the agency were rented out by local farmers with similar statistics pointing to most of them being rented in as well. This initially implied that farmers' past experience with leasing forestland should have an impact on their future decision making.

#### *3.2. Data Collection*

A stratified sampling method was applied to selected interviewed households. Following the administrative system within the county, we selected seven townships from a total of 24 (i.e., one lower level than that of a county). These townships were distributed evenly regarding their geographic location. We randomly selected three villages from each township for a total of 21 sample villages. Next, we randomly selected 20 farm households from each village totaling 420 interviewed household representatives. Noting that a larger sample might provide more accurate results; however, due to financial and time constraints this hampered our time in the field and field-oriented resources.

The interviews were conducted in the selected villages at the end of 2017 when most household heads had returned from outside work places to have the Spring Festival with their families. A two-person group was organized and appointed to conduct the investigation county-wide. All investigators were able to communicate in local dialects and were trained to efficiently ask questions and fill in the questionnaire in 10 minutes. This protocol greatly reduced communication problems caused by the fact that dialects are popular in the study area where most of the population are Hakka people. The questionnaire used in the interviews were collected as primary data—characterized by household head, general situation of the household, forest plot characteristics, and past experience of leasing forestland. From the 420 planned interviews we only concluded 408 households in our sampling—discarding 12 interviews due to incompleteness.

#### *3.3. Data Description*

Descriptive statistics of the data are presented in Table 2. The intentions given by the farmers on whether they would lease forestland are stated in the Section 4.1. Farmers' intention and past experience of leasing in and leasing out of forestland. Descriptive findings will ensure a complete picture of the past experience and future intention. The data indicates that the average forestland held by one household was 1.83 hectares, a figure that closely resembled the Chinese national average. Moreover, 56% of the households did not indicate that usage rights of the forestland were unchanged—due to previously implemented reforms. In addition, only 14% of the households indicated that they would leave forestland as an expected inheritance for the next generation.

The majority of the household heads were aged between 40 and 60 years old with an average age of 49 years old. As far as the attainment of education was concerned, 206 household heads, i.e., 50.49%, completed high school. There were 150 household heads that completed middle school accounting for 36.76%, 32 households or 7.84% were headed by people who had schooling at the elementary level, and 19 household heads who had university degrees, accounting for 4.66% of the sampled households. In terms of the number of people being employed, the range was from zero to six. Among the households, 216 households had two people working in the household, which accounted for 52.94% of the total. Another 67 (i.e., 16.42%) households had three people working, 55 (i.e., 13.48%) households had four people working, and 42 (i.e., 10.29%) households had one person working. The number of households that had nobody working was 13, accounting for 3.19%. There were five households having more than four people working, accounting for 1.23% of the total. The households differed from one another in terms of nonfarm income relative to the total income. On average, 41.9% of the total income comes

from nonfarm sources. In fact, 127 households reported that they had no income from nonfarm work, while 27 households reported that all of their incomes were from nonfarm work.


**Table 2.** Descriptive statistics of the data.

† standard deviation.

#### **4. Results**

The results of the farmers' intentions and past experience of leasing in and leasing out forestland is elucidated. An additional detailed examination of the Bayesian logit model, pinpointing the main factors affecting farmers' intention of leasing out forestland, in terms of the assigned variables, are shown.

#### *4.1. Farmers' Intention and Past Experience of Leasing in and Leasing out of Forestland*

Results indicate that those farmers that intended to lease in forestland accounted for 32% of the total sample; however, those farmers that intended to lease out forestland were 11% fewer (Table 2). Regarding past experiences of leasing in or leasing out forestland, the results indicated slightly more than 10% of farmers who had experience with leasing in versus only 7% of those leasing out. Comparatively, 14% of farmers' positive responses in terms of ease of leasing in forestlands versus 12% of them for leasing out forestlands. In addition, there are about a quarter of the farmers who did not perceive that lease in of forestlands as profitable, and 18% of them that did not respond to leasing out as profitable.

We grouped all farmers into two categories according to their differing perspectives of experiences of leasing in forestlands. We found the group with experience of leasing in forestland had a significantly higher intention of leasing in forestlands than the other group (i.e., t-test value of −5.78). We also found that the group with responses of not being profitable in terms of leasing out had fewer intentions of leasing in forestlands than the other group (i.e., t-test value of 6.29). In addition, we found significantly different impacts of ease to leasing in forestlands on intention of leasing in between two groups with different responses in term of ease of lease in (i.e., t-test value of −5.92).

When we categorized farmers into two groups according to whether they had experiences of leasing out forestlands, we found the group with this type of experience had significantly higher intentions of leasing out forestlands than the other group (i.e., t-test value of −2.65). We also found different intention of leasing out forestlands between the group responding to it not being profitability to lease out versus the other group (i.e., t-test value of 5.88). However, we did not find significantly different impacts of ease in leasing out forestlands on intention of leasing out between two groups with different responses in terms of ease in leasing out (i.e., t-test value of −1.35).

#### *4.2. Factors a*ff*ecting Farmers' Intention of Leasing in Forestland*

As illustrated in Table 3, the results of the Bayesian logit model identify the effects of demographic characteristics, characteristics of forestland, and past experiences of leasing in forestland of the respondents on their intention of leasing it in. We tested for correlation between all explanatory variables and found that none of the correlative coefficients exceeded 0.50. Furthermore, all of the variance inflation factors (VIF) were less than two, indicating that our data did not suffer from multi-collinearity issues based on commonly used cut-off values [55,69]. The estimated Monte Carlo errors were all less than 5% of the standard deviation, indicating that random-walk Metropolis-Hastings sampling was appropriate [70].


**Table 3.** Results of factors affecting farmers' intention of leasing forestlands.

† standard deviation; ‡ percentage; \* significant at P < 0.10; \*\* significant at P < 0.05; \*\*\* significant at P < 0.01.

In order to check robustness of impacts of farmers' past experiences of leasing in forestland, Table 2 reports on four models and employed each of three indicators of past experiences in the first three and all three indicators in the fourth. The impacts of the indicators of past experiences and other variables are consistent in all four models—which convinced us of its robustness. We conducted the following analysis based on the fourth model. The regression results showed that seven factors have statistically significant impacts on farmers' intentions of leasing in forestland. These factors are the household head age (i.e., age), number of people working in a family (i.e., labor), security of forestland usage rights (i.e., security), lease in of forestland in the past five years (i.e., wea\_in), ease of leasing in forestland (i.e., easy\_in), and not profitable to lease in forestland (i.e., profit\_in).

The coefficient for the age variable is negative and significant at 1%; thus, the intention to lease in forestland decreases as the age of the household head increases. The education level of the household head (i.e., education) also had a negative effect on lease in of forestland, but the effect was not significant. The effect of the number of people working in the household (i.e., labor) is positive and insignificant. The coefficient of the nonfarm variable is negative and significant at 1%. This implied that those households with larger nonfarm income are less likely to lease in forestland.

Regarding impact of characteristics of forestlands on farmers' intention of leasing in forestland, we found that only the coefficient of the security variable is positive and significant at 5%. Those households holding the view that forestland usage rights were secure had a higher probability to lease in forestland. This may have resulted from the fact that farmers are afraid that their right to lease forestland cannot be well protected if usage rights are not secured. The other two variables, including

area and inherited, did not have significant impacts on farmers' intention of leasing in forestland. However, both of these impacts were negative.

In terms of the impact of farmers' past experiences of leasing in forestland, both coefficients of the *wea\_in* and *easy\_in* variables were positive and significant at 1% whereas the *profit\_in* variable was negative and significant at 1%. The results suggested that those households that once participated in leasing in of forestland were perceived to more easily lease in forestland or had a higher intention of doing it in the future. This is in line with the fundamental economic theory that low transaction cost will always facilitate a transaction. This also implied that farmers' past experiences play a significant role and impact on their intention to lease in in the future.

#### *4.3. Factors A*ff*ecting Farmers' Intention of Leasing Out Forestland*

We presented the results of the Bayesian logit model by identifying the effects of demographic characteristics, characteristics of forestland, and past experiences of leasing out forestland from the respondents' intention to leasing out their land (Table 4). We also reported four models as a check on the robustness of the impacts of farmers' past experiences to leasing in forestland. The consistency of the impacts of farmers' past experiences on famers' intention to lease out forestland convinced us that the results are robustly conclusive. We also made use of results from the fourth model for further inquiry. The regression results showed that seven factors have statistically significant impacts on farmers' intentions to lease in forestland. These factors are the household head age (i.e., age), educational level of household head (i.e., education), number of people working in the family (i.e., labor), security of forestland usage rights (i.e., security), leasing out of forestland in past five years (i.e., wea\_out), and not profitable to lease forestland (i.e., profit\_out).


**Table 4.** Results of factors affecting farmers' intention of leasing out forestlands.

† standard deviation; ‡ percentage; \* significant at P < 0.10; \*\* significant at P < 0.05; \*\*\* significant at P < 0.01.

The coefficient for the age variable is negative and significant at 1%. This points to the correlative finding that an intention to lease out forestland decreases as the household head's age increases. The education level of the household head (i.e., education) also has a negative and significant effect on the leasing out of forestland. This implied that once the household head had a higher educational level, they had a smaller intention to lease out their land. The effect of the number of people working in the household (i.e., labor) was negative with an insignificant correlation. The coefficient of the nonfarm variable was positive and significant at 1%. This implied that those households with larger nonfarm income were more likely to lease out their forestland.

Regarding impact of characteristics of forestlands on farmers' intention of leasing in forestland, we found that only the coefficient of the inherited variable was negative and significant at 5%. Those households treating forestland as inherited have a lower probability to lease out their forestland. This result is in line with our expectations. Two variables, i.e., area and security, did not have a significant impact on farmers' intention of leasing out forestland—however both had positive impacts.

In terms of the impact of farmers' past experiences of leasing in forestland, the coefficient of the wea\_out variable was positive and significant at 10%, the coefficient of the easy\_out variable was positive and insignificant, and the coefficient of the *profit\_out* variable was positive and significant at 1%. These results suggest that those households that participated in leasing out forestland were more likely to do it again. Once farmers did not believe leasing out of forestland was profitable, they have less intention to lease out at all. This also implied that farmers' past experiences played a significant impact on their intention of lease in—in the greater scope of the study.

In terms of the robustness of the results, a Bayesian approach was used as an alternative method to the classical approaches, e.g., logit model and probit model, to avoid biased estimators and misspecifications (i.e., left out variables, errors in variables, and heteroskedastic errors common in traditional models) [71–73]. Zellner and Rossi [74], the first to use a Bayesian analysis for qualitative choice in econometrics, point out that the Bayesian approach exhibits operational capability and provides an avenue for proper analysis of differing scaled samples. A review of recent studies also reveals that Bayesian approaches have been adopted to overcome non-robustness when attached with traditional models (i.e., Caglayan-Akay and Sedefoglu [75] and Cai et al. [70]). As such, low autocorrelation is more efficient in a Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation procedure designed to fit Bayesian models. The procedures within our study, hence, reported on the existence of autocorrelation automatically and took into consideration any avoidance of it. Moreover, we ignored the spatial factors at the township and village level since they were not found to be significant or have spatial heterogeneity in terms of forestland lease. It should be noted that every approach has a certain level of embedded weakness which may generate non-robustness—something we have attempted to limit and veer away from as best as possible. Finally, poor statistical background may have also curbed our contribution to modify the existing approach, leaving us with causation factors for the affected farmers' intention to lease in or lease out farmland.

#### **5. Discussion and Conclusions**

In this study, we examined how farmers' past experiences in leasing forestlands affect their future intention to lease it again. The results indicate that farmers do not have strong intentions both of leasing in and leasing out of forestland. Compared to farmers' low participation in leasing in and leasing out in the past five years, strong intentions imply that the forestland market might be on the brink of rapid development. At present, the leasing market of forestlands has become less active for both participation in leasing in and leasing out of forestland—as noted by Xu et al. [19] in Anji County of Zhejiang Province, which is more than two times larger than our study in Ningdu. Notably, Anji has a much stronger market-orientated economy than Ningdu which may play an important role in its brisker development.

Furthermore, it should be noted that farmers' intentions of leasing in forestlands are stronger than their intentions of leasing out forestlands. Similarly, we found farmers' participation in leasing in of forestlands much more active than their participation in leasing it out. However, there is a reversal when compared to farmers' past participation in the forestland market in Zhejiang [19] (i.e., where farmers' participation in leasing out forestland is nearly three times that of their participation in leasing in forestland). If forestlands are only leased in and leased out between local farmers, an unbalanced bias would be a part of our datasets. However, we noted that other actors outside of local farmers participated in the leasing of forestlands. For example, some forestlands are leased out by some forest firms at the village level. The gap between intentions to lease in and lease out of the forestlands also needs to be closely observed in terms of supply by other actors rather than just local farmers.

Regarding impact of demographic factors of household heads, the results impacted household head age in that intention to lease in forestland is consistent with research findings from Xu and Li [45]. The insignificant effect of educational levels of household heads indicates research finding at par with Wang et al. [48] and Chen et al. [46]. Regarding impacts of demographic factors of the household head in terms of leasing out forestland, negative and significant results of age are consistent with Wang et al. [48] and Ran and Lv [47], while negative and significant results of educational level are consistent with Xu et al. [19].

The significant and positive results regarding farmers' leasing in of forestlands correlate Xu and Li's [45] and Chen et al.'s [46] research, however, the insignificant and negative results regarding framers leasing out forestlands are not consistent—in terms of significance and negative effects—with Ran and Lv [47]. A possible reason for this discrepancy is that farmers' leasing in practices—to expand their scale of forest management—do not corelated with the total labor workforce but, instead, do not need less labor (i.e., at the moment). Another important variable, denoting demographic characteristics of a household, the nonfarm factor has significant effects on intention of leasing in and leasing out of forestland—however this result is somewhat antipodal to finding by Ran and Lv [47]. Finally, it should be noted that the nonfarm factor has been proven to be endogenous with farmers' leasing behaviors [22]. In this study, farmers' nonfarm work outweighs their intention to lease forestland which convinces us not to ignore the endogeneity effects of this impact.

Among three variables related to forestland held by farmers, our results indicate that security is the only variable having significant impact on farmers' intention to lease in forestland, and inherited is the only variable having significant impact on farmers' intention to lease out forestland. These results identify security as consistent with research finding from Zhang and Pearse [50], Zhang and Owiredu [44], and Xie et al. [13]. We have learned, from our field survey, that some farmers do not have a strong sense of security in terms of usage rights of their forestland to lease in. For example, they cannot obtain harvest permission if they do not get assistance of the original holders proving their legal use and rights to the forestland. The result of the impact of inherited land and the intention to lease it showed that once farmers have an intention to pass on their forestland (i.e., to next generation), they are less active in the forestland market. A similar result is observed by Amacher et al. [20] in which farmers were less likely to be active in forest management as well. In addition, the insignificant impact of forestland held by farmers and their intention of leasing in and leasing out implies that farmers do not treat forestlands solely as a physical asset and that entails a certain amount of know-how in the practice for it to be successful.

Our results about farmers' past experiences of leasing forestland are consistent with existing research findings [19,22]. Farmers' past experiences of participating in lease in and lease out forestland will reduce transaction costs and increase profit for the future leasing agreements. Among these are three different variables that clearly indicate farmers' past experiences, i.e., wea\_in and wea\_out concern farmers' past behavior of leasing in and leasing out of forestlands, and easy\_in, easy\_out, pro\_in, and pro\_out concern farmers' perceptions of past experiences. Their perceptions are either formed by their personal experiences or formed in terms of observation of and communications with their relatives, neighbors, and friends. The correlations between lease behavior, their response to ease, and their response for profitability are smaller than 0.25, i.e., it implies that our employment of these three types of indicators are well captured by farmers' past experiences from three independent perspectives. Clearly, profitability from a previous lease plays a significant role and hardens future decisions and intentions rather than easing and encouraging open participation. This behavioral response pertains to market mechanisms that also provides evidence and support for the employment of the profit-maximization function [43,76–80].

Since farmers are major holders of forestland usage rights in rural of China, their intention of leasing in and leasing out of forestland determine development of the forestland market [13,15,19,67]. We do not compare wellbeing of those farmers having past experiences or with other farmers, in addition, we cannot confirm if there is a need to increase farmers' intention of leasing in or leasing

out of forestlands for a rapid development of the area. However, we believe it to be necessary that consideration of what factors affect or restrict farmers' intention (i.e., of leasing in or leasing out) be carefully observed for sounder advancement. Our results indicate household bearing smaller transaction costs and embracing larger profits will be more active in the forestland market. In order to ensure stable development of the forestland market, a policy is needed to reduce transaction costs and promote related profits for farmers who lease in or lease out such land. A more important policy would consider removing restrictions on forestland management and their benefits. Regarding households with elderly heads that have an intention to treat forestland as inherited, a less active forestland market should be expected, forcing policy makers to best coordinate and management these conditions—making countermeasures a priority.

This study explored the causable relationship between farmers' past experiences and future intentions of lease in and lease out of forestland. There is no doubt that this explored causable relationships that show theoretic reference for further future study. However, we note our study was conducted based on survey data from one county which, respectively, is a narrow representation of results. Another limitation is our lack of comparative research of forestland markets between China and other countries in terms of a farmer's perspective. We also note that our indicators, used to measure farmers' past experience, carried limited information reflecting heterogeneity of that experience. We also should state that we differentiate between "forestland market" and "cropland market", and specifically did not incorporate "cropland market" into our study scope. Further study could investigate more details of farmers' past experiences including: area of forestland leased in or leased out and the setting up of a temporal-spatial model (i.e., used to synthesis and compare research finding at different time periods and regions for increased reliability). At length, a follow-up study to this one is suggested to test how many intentions of leasing can be turned into reality.

**Author Contributions:** Conceptualization: X.L. Validation, Formal analysis, Writing—original draft preparation: X.L., Y.W. and Y.X. Investigation: X.L. Methodology, Resources, Writing—review and editing: X.L., G.T.C., Y.W. and Y.X. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

**Funding:** This research is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 71841147001), the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grant No. 2018RW07) and the Research of Rural Forestry Reform and Development of State Forestry Administration of China (Grant No. 201511).

**Acknowledgments:** The authors are grateful to Sen Wang, Peichen Gong, and Runsheng Yin for their valuable comments in helping us piece together critical parts of the manuscript.

**Conflicts of Interest:** The authors declare no conflict of interest.

#### **References**


© 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

### *Article* **Fishing Tourism as an Opportunity for Sustainable Rural Development—The Case of Galicia, Spain**

### **Rubén C. Lois González and María de los Ángeles Piñeiro Antelo \***

Department of Geography, Faculty of Geograpy and History, University of Santiago de Compostela, 15782 Santiago de Compostela, Spain; rubencamilo.lois@usc.es

**\*** Correspondence: manxeles.pineiro@usc.es

Received: 7 October 2020; Accepted: 6 November 2020; Published: 8 November 2020

**Abstract:** The functional diversification of coastal fishing communities has been a central objective of the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) since the early stages of its implementation. A large part of the initiatives financed throughout Europe have been linked to the creation of synergies between the fishing sector and tourism. This paper analyses the opportunities for the development of fishing tourism at the regional level, considering the investments of European and regional funds on the development of fishing tourism in Galicia. Special attention is given to the incorporation of the territorial perspective and Community-Led Local Development (CLLD) for the sustainable development of fishing areas. The results show limitations of this form of tourism in terms of employment and income, especially those developed by fishermen, despite the significant support of the regional government for this activity. This situation allows a critical reflection on the opportunity to convert fishermen into tourist guides, based on the need to diversify the economy and income of fishing communities.

**Keywords:** fishing tourism; European fishing funds; Galicia (Spain); sustainable rural development

#### **1. Introduction**

Local development is a generalised paradigm in order to initiate processes of socioeconomic progress in peripheral areas, in an attempt to respond to productive restructuring and economic crises, as stated by [1–5]. The EU rural development programmes began to be drawn up in the last decade of the twentieth century with the aim of promoting a change from a model based on agricultural development to one oriented towards the diversification of the rural economy. Since 2007, rural development has been a fully developed policy, funded by the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD), and created to respond to the socio-economic and environmental challenges of rural areas and their agricultural model. Since Agenda 2000, it has been called the "second pillar" of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), as an approach for sustainable development in rural areas, complementing the great reform of 1992. With the European Union LEADER initiative, the issue of rural development was included within the European Regional Policy framework to promote the application of the new structural and territorial measures of the CAP [6,7].

Diversification, innovation and cooperation were the general objectives of LEADER between 1991 and 2006 [8], and were added to the new national and regional programmes, PRODER in Spain and AGADER in Galicia, inspired by its approach and methodology [9–11]. In order to include local actors in the design of sustainable, multisectoral and inclusive development strategies, all these rural programmes were based on a bottom-up approach, in which the tourism sector was considered a fundamental aspect for the economic diversification of the territories. In this way, LEADER—and also PRODER and AGADER—allocated a large part of their funds to projects related to tourism development in rural areas [12–18].

The objectives of local development and economic diversification, as part of the European rural development, were transferred from the early years of the twenty first century to the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) [19], based on lessons learned from the LEADER experience. Additionally, the territorial objectives were included in the sectoral policy, and the Community-led Local Development (CLLD) was adopted, an approach that took the communities into account in the design and management of strategic development plans [20]. In this way, a decentralised management of European funds was adopted in coastal areas dependent on fishing. This has been the case of Fisheries Local Action Groups (FLAGs) financed with funds specifically allocated for the sustainable development of fishing areas from the European Fisheries Fund (EFF) (2007–2013) and the European Maritime and Fisheries Fund (EMFF) (2014–2020) [21–25].

Considering sustainable tourism as a factor of local development, and creator of synergies with the rest of the economic sectors, has allowed its inclusion in the EFF and EMFF as an element favouring economic diversification in fishing areas, generating new sources of income for the fishermen and their families. In this way, the Fisheries Areas Network (FARNET)—a network supported by the European Commission to implement CLLD—has designed a guide, "Fisheries and Tourism: Creating benefits for the community", to promote the dissemination of fishing tourism activities in European fishing areas, with the aim of developing a more sustainable tourism that values the local community and contributes to its growth [26,27].

The proliferation of fishing tourism activities in Galicia is closely linked to the subsidies from the European Fisheries Fund, aimed at the economic diversification of coastal communities, and to the regional policy itself, which incorporates marine tourism and fishing tourism into the regional fisheries law, as an activity aimed at the enhancement and dissemination of marine cultural heritage (Law 11/2008 on fisheries in Galicia). In this context, the present study focuses on marine and fishing tourism in Galicia, Spain, and the difficulties in becoming a central element in the economic diversification in coastal areas. To reach this objective, four research questions are formulated: (1) what have been the investments in fishing tourism; (2) what importance has been given to fishing tourism in the development strategies of fishing areas; (3) what role has fishing tourism played in the economic diversification of coastal areas so far; (4) what is the interest of this tourism modality for the small-scale fishing sector itself. From a theoretical point of view, this contribution aims to advance the analysis of the contribution of European funds to sustainable development in fishing areas. A critical perspective is adopted since the authors consider an overvaluation of fishing tourism as a dynamizing factor for the economies in areas dependent on fishing in Galicia.

The focus of this study was on Galicia, a region situated in the NW of Spain, and one of the European regions with the greatest socio-economic dependence on fishing and aquaculture [28,29]. As of 2020, Galicia has a population of 2,700,269 inhabitants, that is concentrated on the Atlantic coast, the most demographically and economically dynamic area of the region. The regional government has had broad powers since the 1980s, transferred by the Spanish state, as a result of the development of the State of Autonomies. Among the exclusive powers that Galicia has are the organisation and management of fishing and tourism, which has had important implications in the development of fishing tourism, since Galicia has its own fishing and tourism laws, and the government has the capacity to apply for and manage European funds. These funds have facilitated the early creation of FLAGs in Galicia, and the development of numerous activities related to fishing tourism. Finally, the aim of this investigation is present a critical discussion of Galician experiences in marine and fishing tourism, and highlight the need to get a coordinated regional strategy, defined on the basis of a bottom-up process, where the participation of the fisheries sector is guaranteed.

#### **2. Literature Review**

#### *2.1. Fishing Sector and Tourism*

The strong link between small-scale fishing and tourism has become a global trend mainly caused by the decrease in income generated by fishing, and the search for economic diversification alternatives by the fishermen, who resort to fishing tourism activities [30–32]. Thus, the relationships between small-scale fishing and tourist activities as a source of complementary income for the populations of coastal communities have been increasingly frequent. Multiple synergies have been identified between professional fishing, recreational fishing and tourism, providing mutual benefits, and demonstrating their complementary nature in the management policies of coastal resources [33]. Although there is plentiful literature on sport fishing and its role as a stimulus for the economy and regional development in Europe, Spain and Galicia [34,35] are good examples, as well as in other territorial areas [36], there are few studies on fishing tourism, a relatively recent tourism modality that integrates a great variety of activities—some of them poorly regulated—and for which there are hardly any statistics that allow comparative studies at different scales.

There is a broad and imprecise conception of the term fishing Tourism, an umbrella that includes a large number of marine and land activities [37]. Fishing tourism can be conceptualised as a culture-based tourism: the culture-motivated, -inspired, and -attracted tourism [38] cited by [39] (p. 90), [31] (p. 145). It is also necessary to consider that the tourism industry in rural areas is based on nature and nature-based activities, such as fishing [39] (p. 89), and thus fishing tourism has its roots in rural tourism, sharing some similarities [40,41]. For some authors, Fishing Tourism includes a series of activities among which recreational or sport fishing stand out, but also different tourism industries such as accommodation, restaurants, retail, and services for tourists [36]. In relation to its definition, Kauppila and Karjalainen [39], following Hänninen and Tonder [42], consider that recreational fishing includes fishing tourism, distinguish between *tourism fishing and fishing tourism.* For tourism fishing, fishing is only one of several reasons to choose a destination. In the case of fishing tourism, fishing is the main motivation for tourists [39] (p. 89). Other authors, however, restrict fishing tourism to a recreational activity in which fishermen take tourists aboard fishing vessels to go fishing [30] (p. 85). Chung-Ling Cheng and Ya-Chiao Chang, in their study focused on the development of fishing tourism in Taiwan, recall previous experiences in Ecuador [43], Mexico [44], South Korea [45], and also Italy [46] and Scotland [47], where tourists accompany fishermen, and even fish, dive or sight whales from traditional fishing boats, or stay in fishermen' houses in some cases [30] (p. 84). These studies reflect the tensions between small-scale fishing and sport fishing, and focus on the role that fishermen play as providers of tourism services, and the competition with professional tourism agencies.

Finally, the meaning of fishing tourism used in this study refers to those activities carried out by fishing professionals, complementing their professional activity: activities carried out on board professional fishing and aquaculture boats, guided tours, accommodation in sea professionals' houses, or gastronomic activities. We use the definition of fishing tourism as included in the different rules that regulate the activity in Spain, at a national and regional level, and in studies focused on the evolution of the activity in Spain [32,40,41,48–55]. This type of tourism includes the activities carried out by groups of sea professionals, with the aim of diversifying and complementing the main fishing and shellfish activity (Preamble to Galician Fishing Law 11/2008) The development of this type of tourism in Europe has its origins in Italy [53], where it was included in legislation as of 1982, with modifications in 1999, 2001 and 2004. In this sense, the following concepts were defined in Italy at the beginning of the 1980s: (i) fishing tourism referred to non-crew members boarding fishing boats for the purpose of recreational and tourist activities; (ii) and ittitourism, which includes activities carried out by fishermen who offer their houses or facilities to tourists and visitors, through hotel and restaurant services, and recreational and cultural activities. The Italian regulations also provide for the development, by fishermen, of complementary activities such as the processing, conservation and marketing of fishery products. The Lega Pesca National Association of Fishing Cooperatives estimated that 800 fishing

vessels had been authorised to conduct fishing tourism in Italy in 2003 [56]. Its early development in Italy helped promote the activity in the south of Europe in later years.

This tourism typology is characterised by a varied functionality: economic, social, cultural and environmental. Fishing tourism allows sea professionals to diversify and complement their income, generate new employment opportunities, reduce pressure on fishing resources, and raise awareness among professionals and tourists about the need to preserve the coastal environment [48]. As studied by Nicolosi et al. [57] in the Southern Tyrrhenian Coastline, the development of fisheries-related tourism activities such as "pesca-turismo" and "itti-turismo" can play an important role in the diversification of local economies, generating additional income for fishermen, and contributing to the promotion of local products through direct sales, restaurants and events related to fishing activities. There are also the synergies between fishing and tourism, which favour the patrimonial activation of the fishermen' knowledge and traditional practices [58], and which intensify the use of the cultural heritage of fishing as a resource for the community [31,59] (p. 155–160), helping to promote the maritime heritage—both tangible and intangible—and to value the crafts of the sea [60]. The work of N.T. Rubio-Cisneros et al. on the development of fishing and tourism on Holbox Island (Mexico) [61], states that the conservation of resources, as well as facing the management of the accelerated development of tourism, benefits from the incorporation of the traditional knowledge of fishermen.

#### *2.2. Fishing Tourism in Spain and Galicia*

The decrease of primary sector activities in the economy of rural areas in Spain has been accompanied by the presence of industrial and tertiary activities in these areas, and a growing interest in tourism [49,62]. Ivars [62], citing Vera and Marchena [63], highlights the commitment of many regions—not specialised in tourism—in the development of rural-natural tourism as a tool to favour regional economic diversification.

According to Santos [64], the development of tourism since the 1990s in Galicia is related to the increase in the number of accommodation establishments on the regional coast, and the promotion of inland tourism linked to the crisis in the rural world, the search for economic diversification, and the interest in other types of tourism, different from sun and beach destinations. Much of the accommodation offer of this inland tourism is located near the sea. This author points out that tourism, and inland tourism in particular, were favoured by the political decentralisation in Spain—which allowed Galicia to design its own tourism policy starting in the 1980s, thanks to the European programmes for rural development, and the Galician administration initiatives. Santos and Trillo-Santamaría [65] link the development of tourism activities in Galicia with the construction of a regional image based on its rural character compared to the rest of Spain, and with rural tourism as one of the priorities of the regional tourism policy.

The introduction of the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) in Europe, and of a series of adjustment measures to reduce fishing capacity, especially in some countries such as Spain, has had a series of negative effects on communities dependent on fishing. Successive funds dependent on the CFP have been allocated towards a series of measures with the aim of avoiding or mitigating these socioeconomic impacts on coastal communities [19,48,66]. Additionally, the economic diversification of these territories has been promoted, which has favoured the investment of numerous European funds in tourism projects [49,67], following the previous experience of the Leader Programme in rural areas [25]. Additionally, small-scale fishing has been immersed for decades in a process of crisis and loss of economic profitability, both in Europe and Spain in general [32,68], and in Galicia in particular [50,69,70], which has contributed to transforming the perception of fishing as a way of life, opening up to the development of new economic diversification activities [60].

It is in this context that fishing tourism has evolved in Spain and in Galicia, favoured by the strong synergies created between the tourism and fishing sectors since the last decades of the twentieth century, and by the opportunities that this activity offers, in terms of employment and income, to coastal communities [32,37,40,41,48–54,71–73]. In any case, although many fishing tourism projects have been started in Galicia [40,74], their evolution and continuity has been uneven, due to the difficulties they face, among which are the lack of tourism training for fishermen [41], and the lack of continued institutional support and specific regulations that regulate the activity [53] (p. 175).

#### **3. Materials and Methods**

This work incorporates the results of a literature review on tourism and local development, with particular attention to fishing tourism and its contribution to economic diversification and multi-functionality in coastal areas. Google Scholar and Science Direct have been used as Internet search engines using the key words Fishing Tourism, Marine Tourism, Pesca-turismo, Ittiturismo. Work focused on recreational and sport fishing, where fishermen did not play an active role as activity hosts, have been rejected for analysis. Emphasis is placed on European Funds in support of the Common Fisheries Policy, and the application of the bottom-up approach to this policy since 2007, with the objective of sustainable development of coastal and fishing areas.

Firstly, a detailed study of the technical documentation of the CFP framework, Financial Instrument for Fisheries Guidance (FIFG), European Fisheries Fund (EFF), European Maritime and Fisheries Fund (EMFF), and Fisheries Local Action Groups (FLAGs), was performed through the analysis of regulations, and strategic and operational programmes. The information published by the Spanish Government related to fisheries and aquaculture diversification [51] have also been taken into account, as well as data from the Spanish Network of Fisheries Groups (REGP), which provides data on investment and employment for each of the actions financed, at regional and local level.

In a second phase, the planning phase conducted by the Fisheries Local Action Groups (FLAGs) in the coastal areas of Galicia has been analysed. These groups are partnerships between fisheries actors and other local private and public stakeholders. Together, they design and implement a local development strategy (LDS) to address their area's needs be they economic, social and/or environmental. Based on their strategy, the FLAGs select and provide funding to local projects that contribute to local development in their areas [75]. This research has considered the LDS approved by FLAGs in Galicia (7 in 2007–2013 period and 8 in 2014–2020 period), in order to analyse the importance given to tourism as an engine for diversification, and specifically to fishing tourism.

In a third phase, focused on the case study, the investments of public funds made to companies and institutions between 1995 and 2018 were analysed using official data published by the Directorate General for Fisheries Management from the Spanish government, which show the nominal data for beneficiaries of EU funding through the FIFG and the EFF, which is successively updated (the latest updated version from 11/7/2018 is available on https://www.mapa.gob.es/es/pesca/temas/fondoseuropeos/iniciativa-comunitaria-de-transparencia/default.aspx). This data is complemented with data published by the networks of European fishing groups (https://webgate.ec.europa.eu/fpfis/cms/farnet2/ node\_en), national (<https://regp.pesca.mapama.es/) and Galician (https://galp.xunta.gal/en). The joint analysis of the strategies and the projects financed allows us to see, in the implementation phase of the funds, the level of development achieved in the objectives defined in the strategy.

Finally, the methodological work was completed with the study of the position of the regional government in relation to the development of fishing tourism in Galicia, analysing the economic, political and technical support for this form of tourism.

#### **4. Results**

#### *4.1. Normative Framework*

In relation to the concept of fishing tourism, as indicated in previous sections, there is a lack of accurate terminology. In most cases it is used in a broad sense, to designate all kinds of leisure activities related to the fishing sector, in a maritime or coastal environment, carried out by professionals of the sea or by tourist agents. In the case of Galicia, it is used as a synonym for Marine Tourism, as included in the regional tourism legislation, and in the tourism information materials published by the Galician administration [76]. Even so, from a regulatory point of view, the activity is well defined in national and regional fishing laws, and is restricted exclusively to activities carried out by professionals in the fishing sector, as a complement or as an alternative to the main fishing or aquaculture activity. Fishing tourism encompasses various activities, the main one "*pesca-turismo*", is a modality that specifically refers to the activities carried out on board professional fishing and aquaculture vessels, which in Spain are registered in a specific census by law. Due to the type of activity, and the working conditions on board, it is the small-scale fishing vessels that are directly related to this activity, as they develop their work in inland or coastal waters, leaving and returning to port on the same day.

Since the beginning of the twenty first century, in Spain and Galicia, fishing tourism has been included in the fishing laws with the aim of promoting the economic diversification of the fishing and aquaculture sector. This is the case of law 3/2001 in Spain—which incorporate fishing tourism, "*pesca-turismo*" and aquaculture tourism—among the measures to be promoted by the Spanish government, and Law 33/2014, which reinforces the role of fishing tourism, defining its typologies and establishing the conditions to develop the activity. In Galicia, Law 11/2008 on Fishing, devotes a specific chapter to marine tourism, linked to the European Fishery Fund (EFF), where the activities that can be included in this type of tourism are detailed, and these are the "*pesca-turismo*" in fishing boats, guided tours, accommodation in sea professionals' houses, and activities aimed at promoting and enhancing the consumption of gastronomic products related to fishing, shellfish farming and aquaculture. Additionally, the Plans and Strategies for tourism in Galicia in the last decade regard marine tourism among the priority tourism products in Galicia, as is the case with the Galicia Comprehensive Plan for Tourism [77], and the 2020 Galicia Tourism Strategy [78]. It is worth noting the attempt by the Galician government to publish a regulation for the development of ittitourism between 2009 and 2010, but has never materialised.

In Spanish and Galician laws, these activities receive a specific mention as elements of diversification and complementarity in addition to the main fishing and shellfish activities, which allow the revitalisation of coastal and rural areas, and the promotion and appreciation of cultural fishing heritage. The latest measure has been the approval in April 2019, of a state regulation that establishes the conditions for the development of the fishing tourism activity carried out on board fishing and aquaculture vessels (Royal Decree 239/2019), with the objective of guaranteeing regulatory security and allowing the broad development of the activity in the Spanish coastal context. The rule bans tourists from fishing activities. It is still too early to assess the impact of the regulation on the development of the activity, although part of the sector considers that it introduces great administrative and bureaucratic complexity, in addition to increasing the economic investment needed to start the activity.

#### *4.2. State and Regional Governments Support*

As mentioned above, the legislative and regulatory initiatives on fishing tourism have been included in the framework of strategic plans and programmes developed by the Spanish and Galician governments, guiding diversification in fishing areas. These plans and strategies are financially supported by CFP's financial instruments. This is the case of the FIFG between 1994 and 2006, which favoured diversification in the early stages of fishing tourism. Additionally, later, the EFF (2007–2013) and the EMFF (2014–2020) funds, establishing among their objectives the support towards the diversification, or the economic and social restructuring, of the areas that face socio-economic difficulties due to the evolution of the fishing sector (EFF, Article 43), and promoting the diversification of the fishermen' income through the development of complementary activities, such as investments onboard vessels, sport fishing tourism, restaurants, environmental services related to fishing and educational activities on fishing (EMFF, article 30).

In this context, the Spanish Ministry with powers in the area of fishing drew up the White Paper on Fishing in 2000, where special mention is made to fishing tourism and where the progress of the main research projects focused on this subject is included [79]. Similarly, in the 2013–2020 Fisheries and Aquaculture Diversification Strategic Plan (DIVERPES Plan), the Ministry set out fishing tourism, and its varieties, among the most important diversification alternatives for coastal areas dependent on fishing [80]. In supporting fishing tourism, there have been collaboration agreements between the administration and the universities that, for example, have made it possible to draw up a diagnosis on fishing tourism in Spain [50].

As a result, many research projects, mostly funded by European funds (Table 1), have produced fishing tourism analyses, evaluations and pilot projects in Spain and its regions [37,40,41,48]. We highlight three projects due to their importance: (1) the Sagital Project "Adaptation Services for the Management of Fishing Tourism Initiatives in Coastal Areas", developed within the framework of the EQUAL II Initiative of the European Social Fund (ESF) in the period 2005–2007, coordinated by the Polytechnic University of Madrid, which concludes that there is an interest by fishermen towards fishing tourism as a means of recognition of their role as managers of the sea, and an increasingly favourable approach by the administration and associations of the sector [49]. Additionally, two projects led by the Technological Centre of the Sea Foundation (CETMAR)—foundation with the involvement of the Spanish and Galician governments, Galician universities and members of the fishing sector; (2) the "Seaside Reorientation Activities" (SEREA) project, funded by the ESF between 2006 and 2008, which highlights that marine professionals who participate in fishing tourism actions must undergo a training process to communicate their experience to tourists and promote the need to value the environment and the activities carried out at sea [55]; (3) the Project "Seamen and Women, Project for diversification in the sectors of fisheries, shellfish gathering and aquaculture" (SEAWO-MEN), funded by Interreg IIIC between 2004 and 2007, where meeting points between members of the regional administration and the fishing sector were organised to advance the development of fishing tourism. In parallel, and with regional funds, the Galician government has also supported the development of research activities through agreements with Galician universities. This is the case of the project "Study on fishing tourism. Examples of good practices developed in Spain", funded in 2006 by the Galician government tourism department.


**Table 1.** Projects related to fishing tourism in Spain and Galicia.

Source: Own work.

#### *4.3. Fishing Tourism Experiences in Galicia*

Fishing tourism activities in Galicia began around 2004, following the example of Italy, and gradually spreading among Galician coastal communities, in most cases supported by guilds (fishermen' associations), non-profit public-sector corporations, which act as consultation and collaboration bodies of the regional government for fisheries issues [81]. This is the case of the guild of Lira, a small village of less than 100 inhabitants in western Galicia, the first to launch the Fishing and Marine Tourism Workshop, with the aim of enlivening the social environment of this fishing community and to make the work of fishermen known to society as a whole [82]. In 2007, a fishing marine reserve was created in this same village, aimed at promoting sustainable fishing and favouring strong synergies between tourism and environmental awareness programmes in the marine environment, resulting in the first experiences of fishing tourism. In the early 2000s, fishing tourism activities were launched in other Galician ports, including those initiated by shellfish women's associations to promote and highlight the fishing and shellfish culture [52]. This is the case of the

Guimatur cultural association, created in 2004, which organised guided tours through the shellfish banks, aimed at both visitors and schoolchildren, advocating the fishing culture and the traditional values of work at sea [83]. There are other relevant examples in which several fishermen' guilds have grouped together to develop marine tourism initiatives, such as Pescanatur, an association created in 2006, bringing together three guilds in the province of Pontevedra, to offer tourism packages focused on food tours to taste local fish and shellfish, tours with shellfish women through their places of work, or pesca-turismo experiences [52].

In this way, projects and initiatives related to fishing tourism, which would have a greater role as of 2006 with the approval of the EFF, emerged in Galicia. The development of Axis 4 of the EFF (2007–2013), specifically focused in the sustainable development of fisheries areas, with the aim of supporting economic diversification, played a fundamental role in the dissemination of fishing tourism in Galicia [53], as stated in the preamble of the Galician Fishing Law. Thus, in 2008 the creation of Fisheries Local Action Groups (FLAGs) began with the selection of 7 groups and 7 fisheries areas, and later expanded to 8 [24]. FLAGs design LDS that guide European and regional investment in order to strengthen the economy of fishing communities through economic diversification, increasing the income of marine professionals and protecting employment. Fishing tourism has been the object of special attention in the local development strategies designed and approved by the FLAGs (Tables 2 and 3), which have funded numerous fishing tourism projects and created cooperation networks between the different FLAGs at regional level. Among them was the creation of the Marine Tourism Product Club, Mar Galaica, launched in 2012 with EFF funds, which generated the interest of all the FLAGs, and had the support of the fishing and tourism departments of the Galician government [76]. Mar Galaica was created with the aim of building a platform for the dissemination of activities related to the fishing leisure offer and its cultural heritage [24,40]. In the current programming period (2014–2020), economic diversification activities continue to be funded in coastal communities, and there is a commitment to fishing tourism projects, gastronomy and restaurants, and fishing environmental services and educational activities (Supplementary material, Tables S1 and S2).


**Table 2.** Fishing tourism (FT) in local development strategy (LDS) by Fisheries Local Action Groups (FLAGs) (2007–2013).

Source: LDS.

The local development strategies (LDS) designed by the FLAGs in Galicia in the period 2007–2013 granted tourism a relevant role in achieving the objective of economic diversification. But there is a big difference amongst the 7 FLAGs in regard to the importance they give to fishing tourism. In some cases, this type of tourism does not appear in the strategies, or it is barely acknowledged, as in the Ría de Vigo-Aguarda (1) and Pontevedra (2) FLAGs, on the southern coast of Galicia. In the opposite case, the Costa da Morte (5) and Costa Sostible (4) FLAGs allocate a significant part of their investment forecast to actions related to marine tourism and "*pesca-turismo*". As an example, we will focus on the Costa Sostible FLAG (4), which in its LDS includes actions towards both the creation of a product and the improvement of its commercialisation. Among them are the creation of new types of hotels "hotels marineros" and restaurants "tascas marineras", the recovery of fishing houses with traditional typologies, or the creation of a Marine Product Plan. The analysis of the LDS shows that they apply a broad concept of fishing tourism, which includes all those activities carried out on the coast, related to fishing and marine cultural heritage, but not carried out exclusively by sea professionals. As a result, a significant part of the European funds used to finance fishing tourism have not benefited fishermen, although they have benefited broad sectors of coastal communities.


**Table 3.** Fishing tourism (FT) in local development strategy (LDS) by FLAGs (2014–2020).

Source: LDS.

The LDS approved by the FLAGs for the 2014–2020 period was created thanks to the experience in the implementation of fishing tourism projects and initiatives in the previous programming period. In some cases, such as the Northern Artabro FLAG (7), a specific working group on Fishing Tourism was created for the development of the new LDS [84]. In general, all the Galician LDS acknowledge the importance of fishing tourism for the economic diversification, and continue to apply it in its broadest sense, including within fishing tourism activities that enhance maritime cultural heritage, the transformation of seafood products, riverside carpentry, guide tours, retail and hospitality, and also "*pesca-turismo*" [85]. As a result of the experience from previous projects, some of the strategies have identified challenges and threats that must be taken into account for the future development of the activity, such as the complexity of the administrative processes, or the excess of fishing tourism promotion and marketing when the sector is not yet able to implement these activities [86] (p. 19). Additionally, there is the need to create synergies with nautical tourism [87], and take advantage of the existing synergies between fishing tourism and wine tourism [88].

After analysing the projects approved by the Galician FLAGs, with the support of EFF and EMFF funds, only a few have been promoted or have had professionals from the fishing sector as beneficiaries of the funds. According to information from the Spanish Network of Fishing Groups, of the 341 projects funded by the EMFF in the eight Galician FLAGs, 112 include fishing tourism among their lines of action. It should be noted that of these 112 fishing tourism projects, 40% correspond to initiatives to increase or improve the accommodation and catering offer in fishing communities. Fishing tourism projects that entail greater complexity for their implementation and that require public-private governance agreements in these communities, are fewer. This is the case of projects related to the promotion of marine cultural heritage—tangible and intangible—and environmental awareness, which only account for 16% of the total (Supplementary material, Table S2). We highlight among them the "Mar das Illas" project started in 2017 as a cooperation action between 3 FLAGs, Vigo-A Guarda (1), Pontevedra (2) and Arousa (3), with the aim of training professionals in the fishing sector with an interest in developing fishing tourism and pesca-turismo within the National Park of Galician Atlantic Islands (Parque Nacional Marítimo Terrestre das Illas Atlánticas de Galicia). This project was funded with EUR 58,400 from the EMFF for the years 2017 and 2018. It has currently been extended, and in August 2020 several pilot projects for pesca-tourism and fishing tourism have been developed.

Finally, it should be noted that the support by the regional government towards fishing tourism in recent years has not only been financial, but it has also had a markedly political nature, as seen in public demonstrations of interest by the main heads of the Administration, both in the form of statements in the press, visits to ports, and participation in the activities organised by the guilds, as reported by the regional and national press.

#### **5. Discussion**

The effort led by the Spanish State to promote the regulation and promotion of fishing tourism activities has allowed the development of laws and regulations (Supplementary material, Table S3), numerous research projects and pilot projects, which on a regional scale, have addressed the design of tools and training actions to give support to those interested in starting this type of activity [49]. Fishing tourism has an important relationship with fishing innovation [48], and in coastal communities, social innovations are in many cases related to new tourism products linked to maritime heritage and the presence of women in fishing and shellfish activities [24]. Some studies show that fishermen' organisations that implement fishing tourism projects also tend to conduct innovative projects related to sustainable fishing or technological innovation [55]. Despite the interesting results of a large part of these projects and their experiences in relation to the implementation of pilot fishing tourism projects, no work has yet been carried out to standardise the results in order to design a fishing tourism development strategy at state level.

The proliferation of fishing tourism activities in Galicia has been, as in the rest of Spain, closely linked to funds from the European Fisheries Fund—aimed at the economic diversification of coastal communities—and to the regional policy, which incorporates marine tourism in regional fishing regulations. For the regional government, marine tourism includes the activities carried out by groups of sea professionals, with the aim of diversifying and complementing the main activity of fishing and shellfish (Preamble of Law 11/2008 of fishing of Galicia). Even so, this activity in Galicia still has ample room for development. It is necessary to study in depth the challenges of this type of tourism and take into account the following factors:


acknowledge the interest in fishing tourism by the different sectors of the sea following a decade of experiences, which have identified potentialities, shown the interest of the coastal communities, and made them aware of the problems to be faced. There have been projects, such as SAGITAL, mentioned above, that have developed pilot projects and participatory processes focused on fishing tourism opportunities. This small-scale experience should be taken into account when defining a regional-scale strategy [49]. Additionally, it is necessary to coordinate the support for the development of fishing tourism. This is due to the fact that the existence of economic stimuli that public funds have caused this promotion has not been in accordance with the existing offer, thereby generating unrealistic expectations [86].

#### **6. Conclusions**

There is unanimity in considering fishing tourism as a tourism modality with great potential, due to the benefits it can bring to communities in which small-scale fishing plays a significant role in the economy. Benefits related to the revitalisation of the fishing sector, and also to the promotion of fishing cultural heritage, so fishermen can continue to exploit their knowledge and professional skills, and maintain the social networks linked to fishing [89].

Its development is still limited and irregular in Spain, and it does not constitute a relevant contribution of supplementary income for the majority of fishing professionals in the communities where it takes place [48,52]. Among the main difficulties identified for the implementation of fishing tourism are the lack of experience and previous training of fishermen in tourism activities, the irregular distribution and lack of monitoring of the implemented initiatives, and the existing legal uncertainty [54]. Until very recently, the Spanish legal system did not allow the use of professional fishing vessels for activities other than extractive activities and, therefore, prevented the embarkation of people other than the vessel's crew [49] (p. 1640). In this way, the development of the *pesca-turismo* modality has been restricted, and subject to the search for formulas that would allow it to circumvent this regulatory restriction. Authors like Nicolosi et al. [57], point out other factors, such as how the potential of *pesca turismo* and *ittiturismo* in the Southern Tyrrhenian Coastline is underestimated by the fishing sector due to its lower profitability in relation to fishing, and because the advanced age of fishermen reduces their interest in innovation and access to new forms of communication.

Fishing tourism has generally included elements of environmental education and awareness, and therefore has contributed to transforming the attitudes and values of the parties involved, in local communities and the fishing sector, and of course, visitors. This is evident from the perspective of the sustainability of the fishing sector, in relation to the environmental awareness of the parties involved and the recognition of trades linked to the sea, as well as the sustainability of the coastal tourism model, by complementing the sun and beach offer with new tourism products related to fishing [53] (p. 177).

One of the fundamental objectives of the Common Fisheries Policy is the reduction of fishing captures in Europe, which has had serious consequences for communities dependent on fishing. The policies of economic diversification have pushed many fishermen to consider the possibility of combining their trade with other activities, such as tourism, for which in most cases they have barely received any training. Turning sea professionals into hosts of their own vessels, and part-time tour guides, is a complex task that requires a debate on the opportunity to undertake this path, the means, the pace and the expected objectives. This process, if carried out, must be directed and coordinated by the fishing organisations, which must reflect on how to reconcile tourism and professional fishing so that professionals in the sector are interested in these activities, favouring the promotion of traditional trades and knowledge, and the fishing cultural heritage in general.

**Supplementary Materials:** The following are available online at http://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/9/11/437/s1, Table S1: EMFF Projects in Galicia (2014–2020), Table S2: EMFF Projects with line of action in Fishing Tourism. Galicia (2014–2020), Table S3: Current laws and regulations that have introduced definitions and considerations on fishing or marine tourism and fishing tourism in Spain.

**Author Contributions:** R.C.L.G. and M.d.l.Á.P.A. contributed with the conceptualization and methodology. The investigation was made by M.d.l.Á.P.A. supervised by R.C.L.G. R.C.L.G. and M.d.l.Á.P.A. made formal analysis. M.d.l.Á.P.A. wrote the original draft. R.C.L.G. reviewed and edited the manuscript. Both authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

**Funding:** This research has not received external funding.

**Conflicts of Interest:** The authors declare no conflict of interest.

#### **References**


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