**4. Discussion**

The integration of biophysical, monetary and qualitative data, in combination with results from previous studies analyzing changes in local ecosystems, enables us to comprehensively describe the current sustainability crisis of the system, its socio-economic drivers and potential ways forward. Consequently, we integrated the quantitative insights gained in the previous sections with qualitative insights from 12 expert interviews and additional literature.

#### *4.1. The Sustainability Crisis of the Small Ruminant Farming System on Samothrace*

We found that the small ruminant farming system (SRFS) of Samothrace was highly dependent on local grazing resources throughout the period covered (Figure 5). Thus, a continuous overutilization of local grazing resources undermines the very existence of the system (Figure 6). While both the abandonment and intensification of grazing represent challenges for Mediterranean ecosystems [12], Samothrace is clearly affected by the latter. This, in combination with a social and economic crisis indicated by the low average income of small ruminant farmers (Figure 8) and confirmed in qualitative interviews, threatens the very basis of farming on the island.

Biel and Tan [15] reported, in their extensive survey about the flora of Samothrace, that intense grazing and repeated "slash-and-burn" practices for obtaining pastureland, contributed to fundamental ecosystem changes and threats. A study conducted on the mountainous oak forests in 2017 assessed a sample of 940 trees and found no tree with a younger cambial age than 47 years. The authors concluded that 86% of the island's forests are currently threatened by overgrazing and have *high regeneration priority* [37]. An analysis of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) based on satellite images from 1984 to 2015 revealed a 40% reduction of large parts of Samothrace's land cover up until 2002, and only a partial recovery in the decade after [26,27]. This development perfectly matches the increase of the small ruminant population prior to 2002 (Figure 4). The reconstruction of the annual herd dynamic and metabolic requirements of all sheep and goats, allows for a reconstruction of the feed demand from 1993 to 2016. From 1993 to 2005, the supplemented feed only represented 10% of the total feed demand, increasing to 20% thereafter (Figure 5). Samothrace, therefore, represents a rather untypical Greek island, as grazing on Greek islands was usually reported to cover below 30% of nutritional needs of small ruminants [8]. Grazing demand surpassed the upper boundary of the estimated NPP between 1995 and 2005, and the lower boundary from the 1980s until today (Figure 6). Thus, the small ruminant population seems to have over-utilized grazing resources for at least a decade, or otherwise, animals were severely undernourished. In reality, it was most likely a combination of both. A reduction of animal numbers is inevitable if local ecosystems are to fully recover. The degradation of pastures is also the most plausible reason for the decline of the small ruminant population after 2002. The reproduction rate of small ruminants was stable at 0.87 from 1993 to 2006 and showed a decline to 0.5 in 2016 (for a more detailed analysis see [24]). Goats were more affected by the population decline between 2002 and 2010 (50%) than sheep (24%). As farmers cannot manage the reproduction of the mostly free roaming goa<sup>t</sup> herds, inadequate feed supply is likely to have played an important role in their declining reproduction rate. This hypothesis is supported by local farmers (Supplementary Information: Section 3) and the fact that farmers started providing more feed only in the years following 2005, when animal numbers were already declining (Figure 5).

The social and economic crisis of the system is reflected in multiple aspects. Of the 23 farmers interviewed for the farm economy survey, 22 have said that they see no future in farming on Samothrace and they advise their children to leave the island. The main reasons given were the increase in prices for feed, high taxes, reduction of subsidies and the declining market prices for products (Supplementary Information: Section 3). For farmers in the north-east of the island, the only local dairy is too far away, so they produce only small quantities of dairy products for their own consumption or, in some cases, their restaurants. Milking is largely done by hand and as prices are so low, it is not profitable for most farmers (Expert Interview 4, 6). The dairy can only process milk between April and July/August and 80% of their production is exported. According to the owner, in recent years they have needed to shut down the production in the middle of July as they cannot sustain their business over the summer (Expert interview 7). In Mediterranean regions, many dairies stop taking milk during summer, as during the later stage of lactation, the coagulating properties of milk deteriorate, which has negative effects on yogur<sup>t</sup> and cheese production [7]. Many of the farmers interviewed claimed that the low capacity of the dairy is the main reason why they cannot generate any income from milk. Lambs are mainly slaughtered around Easter and kids in the middle of August. Animals are often exported alive as they are purchased by external traders who take care of the transport and the slaughtering. If slaughtered locally, it can legally only be done in the slaughtering house. For many farmers, use of the slaughtering house is inconvenient and too expensive, so they slaughter by themselves and distribute the meat informally or may sell it in their own restaurants. The selling price per kilo is usually lower if the animals are sold alive for export (Expert interview 1, 3, 4, 11). These difficulties are reflected in the current financial situation of local small ruminant farmers (Figure 8). Almost half of their revenue is generated through subsidies, and main expenses are for transport and animal feed. This leaves the average small ruminant farmer with about 5000 € income per year, too little to sustain their business and family.

While the 1990s were, in general, beneficial for small ruminant farming in Greece, as milk prices were high, pastures were lush and farmers received good subsidies, the situation on Samothrace gradually became worse in the last two decades. After 2000, the milk prices started falling and feed prices increased [8]. In the last five years, meat prices on Samothrace have dropped by 40% as traders agreed on a price among themselves before negotiating with individual farmers. Traders benefit from the lack of farming cooperatives on the island that would allow a joint price policy on the part of the farmers (Expert interview 1, 3, 4, 11). The partially coupled subsidy payments, or as stated by local experts, at least the perception that there is a strong correlation, continuously prevent farmers from minimizing their herds (Expert interview 11; Supplementary Information: Section 3). Farmers

increased their feed imports slightly after 2005. However, this had more e ffect on their financial expenses than on the relief of local pastures. The island is disadvantaged in free market competition as transport costs are high, processing facilities are lacking, and the market is flooded with cheap products, mainly from New Zealand and Australia (Expert interview 7, 12). As stated by most interviewed farmers and local experts, without additional income it is not possible to live from small ruminant production on Samothrace today (Expert interview 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 11).

#### *4.2. The Regression of Sedentary Extensive Small Ruminant Farming Systems*

Sedentary extensive small ruminant farming systems (SRFSs) have been regressing at a fast pace over the last decades throughout the Mediterranean [9]. The present case study describes this process on a local island level, contributing to a better understanding of the e ffects of industrialization on agriculturally-shaped, remote regions within the EU.

Samothrace's socio-metabolic profile was, up until the 1960s, in most aspects, pre-industrial. The first diesel engines for electricity production were installed around 1960, as were the first paved roads, and a port that allowed for larger ships to dock [38]. Samothrace lost 40% of its population between 1951 and 1981 [23], due to a combination of push and pull factors regarding employment opportunities abroad and the fundamental changes a ffecting the agricultural system of the island. The transformation of local agriculture becomes evident in the changing composition of livestock species shown in ure 4. In 1929, the livestock system had only 2000 livestock units [LSU], was relatively diverse and dominated by Equidae (horses, mules and donkeys). The growth to almost 8000 [LSU] in 2002 occurred almost exclusively in the small ruminant population. While the number of animals has been reduced since then to approximately 5000 [LSU], the livestock system today is still dominated by sheep and goats. The reduction of Equidae and cows documents clearly the loss of one of the central features of livestock in pre-industrial land-use systems, their use as draft animals [39]. Expert interviews confirm the shift in the local livestock system. Up until the 1960s, sheep and goa<sup>t</sup> herders had a special position on the island. People who produced meat and had meat in abundance were considered rich by the community. Back then, nobody possessed more than 100 animals and everything from the animals like meat, milk, wool and skins, was processed and used. Herds of goats grazed in the mountains in the summer and were chased down to the lowlands in winter and for slaughtering (Expert interview 3, 4, 10). With the provision of supplementary feed starting in the 1960s, initially only locally produced, later also imported, the relationship between the herders and the animals changed. While in former times herders chased their animals, following them on foot even over mountainous terrain, animals today come close to the numerous newly built mountain roads when they hear the sound of the farmer's car (Expert interview 4, 10). This reduces the labor e fforts of herders but increases their transport costs substantially (Figure 8; Expert interview 6). In the past, animal numbers were kept below the carrying capacity of the island's ecosystems, as there were no feed imports. The introduction of cars, fossil fuels and supplementary feed lowered the labor input but increased monetary costs, and in combination with agricultural subsidies, enabled an increase in animal numbers. Apart from these aspects, the SRFS on Samothrace today is still determined by fairly high labor input, low access to markets, lack of cooperatives and a low level of technological advances. Technological innovation played, therefore, only a minor role in the onset of the transformation of the local livestock system, leaving structural changes in land managemen<sup>t</sup> and regional markets as more important factors [40].

Despite the lack of statistical data on land use before 1993, the results of the present study clearly indicate that the land use system of Samothrace must have experienced a similar shift, as described by Kizos et al., for the island of Lesvos. In their case study, the authors showed how since the 1960s "complex and multifunctional agrosilvopastoral land use systems were simplified to a pure livestock raising system" [3]. As evident from statistical data and confirmed by local experts, Samothrace's crop production is almost exclusively used for livestock feed today, while this was not the case prior to 1960. The Treaty of Lausanne in 1923 set the beginning of structural land use changes which shaped Greece in the 20th century. Due to population increase and compulsory expropriations, grazing areas were

transformed into cultivated land and animals were increasingly kept in enclosures and supplemented with harvested feed [10]. This marked the end of traditional nomadic small ruminant herding in many regions in Greece. At the beginning of the 1930s, agriculture on Samothrace was characterized by small intensive farm holdings in combination with transhumant practices in small ruminant farming. In the decades following 1945, most traditional transhumant or small intensive systems in Greece were then transformed into sedentary extensive systems, in which farmers have only a few ha of land, use communal grazing lands and need to buy supplementary feed [9]. This transition is a good example for the whole of Mediterranean Europe [41], and marked the end of subsistence-based forms of peasantry, also on Samothrace. These changes are reflected in the decline of people employed in the primary sector and the disintegration of half of the island's traditional farm houses between 1971 and 2016 [38]. The allocation of fundamental land use rights to single farmers and the transfer of grazing rights for communal land to the municipal level, changed the situation in the country fundamentally and are of high relevance with regard to current EU CAP (Common Agricultural Policy) regulations.

#### *4.3. The European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) as a Socio-Economic Driver for Changes A*ff*ecting the Small Ruminant Farming System on Samothrace*

Subsidy payments, initially by the Greek state and later by EU CAP, represent an important socio-economic driver for changes in local agriculture. This is reflected in the high contribution (50%) of subsidies to local livestock farmers' income (Figure 8). This does not reflect the general situation in Greece, where subsidies usually comprise only a small fraction of farmers' income [42]. Local farmers and agricultural administrators benefitted from sheep and goa<sup>t</sup> farming through specifically-targeted subsidy schemes. More recently, the implementation of the "headage payment" in the early 1990s enabled farmers to increase the size of their herds substantially (Figure 4). One e ffect of the subsidy payments was that farmers neglected the need for a functioning farming business model. The regular payments simply covered their losses and created a situation in which subsidies became a substantial source of income. Farmers were never educated on how to use these payments in order to create a sustainable business strategy (Expert interview 10, 11). The main achievement of the 2003 reform was the implementation of decoupling of direct payments to farmers from their production numbers in order to reduce farmers' dependence on subsidies and produce according to market demand [43]. This is a process that is still ongoing. This policy was, however, much more directed towards stopping abandonment, as farmers were encouraged to maintain their grazing levels with a cross-compliance maximum of 1.4 heads/ha for degraded semi-mountainous or mountainous pastures, or continue to breed at least 50% of their herds if they graze on communal land [10].

During this reform, it was also made clear by some EU member states that full decoupling could lead to "several risks such as the abandonment of production, the lack of raw material supply for processing industries, or to social and environmental problems in areas with few economic alternatives" [44]. As the sheep and goa<sup>t</sup> sector was considered as one of the sensitive sectors within the EU, member states could continue to couple 50% of payments in this sector [45]. Greece decided to implement this policy in the course of the "health check" of the 2003 reform [46]. The 2013 reform was used to partially reverse the decoupling process that started in 2003, by giving member states the opportunity to "provide coupled support to a wide range of sectors, covering virtually all agricultural production" [47]. Greece further implemented a scheme after the 2013 reform that was created to enable member states to "split the country into several regions in which the reform implementation can di ffer" [48]. As reported by the interviewed experts, the cross-compliance maximum was circumvented. This was done firstly by farmers declaring communal grazing land multiple times, and later, when this was discovered in 2015, by the regional agricultural administration by simply allocating grazing land on the mainland to local farmers (Expert interview 5, 10, 11). For a region like Samothrace, it is indispensable that the coupling of animal numbers and subsidies can only continue if environmental standards are implemented and enforced. Political clientelism, and stabilizing large livestock numbers, must be overcome. The perception that subsidies directly depend on animal numbers is shared among many farmers and must change. Indeed, farmers who apply environmentally friendly managemen<sup>t</sup> practices should receive much stronger economic support. The new European CAP regulations, currently under negotiations, should respond to these environmentally and socially threatening discrepancies between European regulations and their local interpretations and implementations.

#### *4.4. The Future of Small Ruminant Farming in the Mediterranean*

Sedentary extensive small ruminant farming systems (SRFSs) in the Mediterranean could represent an environmentally sustainable form of livestock production. Due to their resistance to climate extremes, they could also play an important role in the future regarding climate change adaptation [7]. The precondition for this is that the animals feed mainly on biomass not suitable for human consumption, and that the population density is kept so low that ecosystems are not degraded. This, however, would imply that these systems become largely independent from external feed supply, as industrialized feed production connects them with the industrial grain-oilseed-livestock complex [49]. Under these conditions, sedentary extensive SRFSs would contribute to biodiversity and landscape level conservation, minimize environmental hazards, increase the resilience of mixed farming systems, sustain high genetic diversity of small ruminants, and produce high quality products with relatively low monetary and biophysical inputs [50]. Thus, strategies for sustainable development must focus more on the provision of social and economic long-term perspectives for sedentary extensive SRFSs in remote regions.

Currently, there are 23,000 sheep and 24,000 goats on Samothrace, translating into 4700 livestock units (Figure 4). Fetzel et al. [24] defined three major land-cover types suitable for grazing: arable land (32.2 km2), natural forests (7.9 km2) and principally agricultural land with significant natural vegetation, natural grasslands and shrublands (134.6 km2). The cross-compliance maximum of 1.4 heads/ha, implemented by the EU CAP in 2003, would therefore translate into 23,500 animals or a 50% reduction of current animal numbers, if grazing would be abandoned from forests. Defining sustainable numbers of grazing animals for di fferent land-cover classes poses a scientific challenge that cannot be easily overcome. Our data does not allow for a precise definition of a sustainable number of livestock. Spatial and temporal flock distribution, additional feeding, other managemen<sup>t</sup> practices and natural factors are also highly relevant for sustainable development of grazing-based farming systems. A successful strategy must, therefore, focus on the improvement of sustainable economic, land and livestock managemen<sup>t</sup> practices in order to relieve pastures and enable farmers to gain su fficient income. Continuous under-utilization of animals (Figure 7) would allow for some increase in production output per animal, without aiming for an intensification equivalent to industrialized systems. At the same time, if the demographic trend continues, the number of people employed in the primary sector will further decline over the next decades. In this context, it is of grea<sup>t</sup> importance that retired farmers eventually also lose their grazing rights and give up their herds. These factors could result in a decline of the total number of animals, while young farmers could keep their animals and moderately increase their production output per animal. Although, they will still face problems due to di fficult market conditions for agricultural products regarding prices and legal regulation for on-farm sales. These di fficulties can only be overcome with a higher level of cooperation. The current lack of cooperation is routed in the historical background of farmers' cooperatives in Greece. In the 1980s and 1990s, cooperatives often became political battlegrounds as they were managed by political representatives or people closely a ffiliated with political parties who often used these cooperatives for their personal benefit [51]. The experience of most local farmers with these forms of cooperatives was so bad that it shapes cooperation among farmers and their trust of people in general until today (Expert interview 1). It will be a long-term and maybe tiring process but there is no alternative to overcoming doubts and mistrust and finding new ways for a closer collaboration among local farmers. This could eventually lead to a local farmers' cooperative engaging in designing a local brand that stands for high quality and maybe even organic production, which, in turn, can have grea<sup>t</sup> advantages for less favored regions in the Mediterranean [52]. In this way, much better prices for their products on regional markets and beyond could be achieved. A cooperative would enable local farmers to, for instance, invest in a mobile alternative to the slaughtering house and in a mobile milking unit, and install cooling facilities for milk collection and storage in regions too far away from a dairy. Currently, first attempts at a new form of cooperation are in progress and it seems like a new momentum for change has been created.
