**3. Results**

Results of both case studies are jointly presented here to address our two research questions, focusing on the identified community development priorities and climate adaptation challenges (3.1), and on the project co-benefits and challenges (3.2) across climate-development dimensions.

#### *3.1. Community Development Needs in the Face of Climate Change*

Under both cases, the bulk of development needs reported at community level revolved around socio-economic development difficulties that are commonly identified in resource-poor and remote contexts, which ultimately limit a project's capacity to co-deliver wider climate and development impacts. Eden's villages lack adequate access to drinking water. According to the community, there is a need to increase the number of boreholes and to install filters to improve the currently poor water quality. The fast growing population demands more school facilities, up to college level, as well as secure access to basic health care, both of which are currently non-existent: "Here people ge<sup>t</sup> ill because we lack drinking water and hospitals ... Our population is growing rapidly and we lack school facilities" (F1, focus group). The coastal villages remain isolated from the closest city, which can only be reached through a 12-h boat trip in optimal weather conditions. Mobility between city and village needs to be improved to enable access to markets and basic goods, plus access to hospitals in case of emergency. According to focus groups, connectivity would be enhanced by equipping boats with diesel engines and building a cemented deck to access the muddy village entrance. The need to better connect to external markets also links to the need to support, financially, the establishment of local wholesalers to secure local supplies throughout the year: "It requires a lot of money to start, and our strongest difficulties are in the rainy season" (F1, focus group). Due to the high levels of unemployment and lack of local financial institutions, most villagers are unable to borrow money to fulfil their basic needs or aspirations. Improving access to credit is reported as a measure needed to enable the start-up of new small businesses to alleviate poverty. Under Makira, while the need to raise environmental awareness and deliver agricultural training is an agreed priority among the interviewees, focus groups unanimously reported similar priorities as the ones noted by the Eden's community. They revolve around the need to increase access to drinking water, improve basic health care and enhance access to basic education: "Education is key to sustain the sustainable development of our village" (#66, community member, male).

Di fficulties in the pursuit of basic development needs are exacerbated by climate impacts linked to changing rainfall patterns and temperatures over the past decade. Starting with Eden, n = 25 respondents observed that rainfall quantity has been su fficient and stable between 2007 and 2014, while a drought occurred between 2015 and 2017. To adapt to the lower and delayed rain, people are forced to postpone the planting of food crops: "I wait to plant until it rains, now around January/March. Before 2007, it was in December/February" (#9, community member, male). Over the same timeframe, n = 22 respondents reported that rainfall intensity has increased, resulting in decreased crop yields and a limited capacity to adapt: "It is a problem for the rice crops, I can't adapt" (#19, community member, female). According to n = 19 respondents, the maximum temperature perceived during dry periods has increased. We observe that in order to adapt to the reported climatic challenges, particularly in water-scarce periods, adaptation is commonly pursued by changing cropping practices, which is understood as the "flexibility" dimension of adaptive capacity [10]. As reported in three extreme cases, no food is grown during the drought "I will not plant any food crops this year" (#25, community member, female). Under Makira the perceptions gathered on climate change are limited due to the smaller sample, however similar patterns and challenges as in Eden are observed. Particularly, an increased rainfall intensity reported by n = 2 respondents resulted in increased flooding and crop damage: "Before it was stable. Now, when it rains, it rains a lot and we have flooding. When it doesn't rain it gets very dry" (#70, community member, female). The capacity to adapt to changing temperatures and rainfall remains limited: "Maximum temperature increased, minimum is much colder. This has decreased agricultural productivity, also because we don't adapt" (#67, community member, female).

#### *3.2. Benefits and Challenges of Forest Conservation Projects Reported at the Practitioner and Community Levels*

Climate-development benefits and challenges reported across case studies are presented according to the two climate dimensions—mitigation (3.2.1) and adaptation (3.2.2)—assessed in our analytical framework.

#### 3.2.1. Mitigation and Development

While climate change mitigation is acknowledged in both cases, it is under-reported by Eden project sta ff and not recognized by the community. Eden acknowledges carbon sequestration "as a co-benefit to raise awareness and mobilize resources among business partners" (#2, project developer). However the project lacks carbon mitigation empirical data, and no baseline carbon assessments were carried out prior to commencement of Eden's activities. No monitoring is being implemented to assess the extent to which the 200 million mangrove trees planted over a decade are delivering mitigation: "We know that we sequester carbon but we are not focused on mitigation ... it's very demanding to ge<sup>t</sup> certification" (#2, project developer)1. The lack of monitoring and systematic carbon assessment pose serious limitations in the capacity of the project to prove its mitigation benefits, monitor them and access mitigation funding. Despite the project not generating direct development benefits through mitigation revenues, one community member showed a basic appreciation of carbon sequestration derived by mangrove restoration: "Eden explained to us that there is carbon in the leaves of the mangroves. The carbon is needed to protect human health" (#7, community member, male).

In Makira's case, as expected in a REDD+ project, carbon certification has been put in place and enhanced carbon stocks from avoided deforestation are a recognized benefit by project developers. According to VCS, the net annual greenhouse gas emissions reductions of the Makira project for the 2010 to 2013 monitoring period amounted to 1,267,462 t CO2-e [41], which accounts for roughly 4% of Madagascar's total annual emissions from land-use change and forestry in 2011 [42]. However,

<sup>1</sup> For details about interviewee's IDs, see the source data deposited on ReShare: http://reshare.ukdataservice.ac.uk/853523/, doi:10.5255/UKDA-SN-853523.

as of 2017, the project had not been able to access certified carbon markets. Only a few small private transactions of around 200 tons on average were processed through the voluntary market. Despite Makira having implemented all the means needed to monitor sequestration and obtain formal certification, challenges remain in the actual capacity to put the system in place and make it function as a long-term source of income (#63, project developer). Makira's mitigation benefits were not directly mentioned by community respondents. The villagers are aware that it is a "carbon" project, but their understanding focuses on the financial (i.e., development) benefits generated by carbon revenues, rather than on mitigation itself.

Initial carbon revenues have resulted in minor 'physical' development benefits, through construction of three schools with total investments of £13,000. Concerns were expressed about the complexity in disbursing carbon funds to communities, which delays development impacts: "The design of carbon projects and access to funds is complex and time consuming" (#F3, focus group). As reported by WCS, revenues should be shared among communities (50%), WCS (20%), and the Malagasy governmen<sup>t</sup> (20%), with the remaining 10% covering transaction costs. Di fficulties are reported in the administration of the community's share, with the managing agency (called Tany Meva) being slow in releasing calls for proposals and disbursing the funds: "Most of the money generated through carbon has been kept by Tany Meva until now, they have a long administrative process" (#63, project developer). At the project level, it is noted that the certified carbon market is not su fficiently rewarding: "The price per ton varies a lot ... we don't sell all credits because the market is too low" (#65, project developer). Interviews sugges<sup>t</sup> that coordinated multi-stakeholder partnership is needed to improve the functioning of the carbon credit system and managemen<sup>t</sup> of available funds. Enhancing community understanding of the carbon sequestration implications of projects will enhance the sense of trust and willingness to cooperate towards the pursuit of shared goals.

#### 3.2.2. Adaptation and Development

Enhanced capacity of Eden's community to cope with a changing climate is observed. As reported by n = 29 respondents, mangrove reforestation implemented over the previous decade has resulted in increased availability of fish, shrimp, and crab—i.e., increased assets, as defined in Table 2: "Mangroves bring a lot of crabs, fish and shrimps. Since Eden arrived the quantity has increased a lot" (#9, community member, male). As a result, when crop yields decrease because of the climatic challenges reported in Section 3.1, people switch to alternative coping strategies—i.e., increased flexibility, Table 2: "Rice yields decreased. To adapt this year I won't plant, I will go fishing and collect crabs instead" (#29, community member, male).

Financial development benefits generated by Eden support enhancement of adaptive capacity. Eden employs over 100 permanent workers per village to carry out mangrove planting. Over ten years, this has provided job stability which resulted in new skills learned and career development opportunities. This has allowed community beneficiaries to diversify their livelihoods thanks to their improved saving capacity—understood as a "human" development improvement under Table 2. Enhanced income allows an increasing number of primary and secondary needs to be met, like improved access to education. It also helped shift cropping and (often illegal) revenue-generating activities that undermined mitigation e fforts (e.g., charcoal production) towards more desirable ones. Traditional livelihood activities before the project commenced included rice production (n = 23 community-level respondents), cassava cultivation (n = 8), corn (n = 5) and sweet potato production (n = 2), as well as fishing, collecting crabs and shrimps, and to a minor extent farming cattle and poultry. Eden is now the main income source for 21 community respondents, who were able to change their livelihood activities based on their varied needs. Many have purchased a pirogue (small boat) and increased their fishing activities (n = 17), resulting in increased adaptation. Others reported that they have replaced fishing income with cattle (n = 7) or started a convenience store (n = 3). However, it was also noted that improved employment opportunities have boosted rapid population growth. This increases demand for basic health, water and education services: "Since (Eden) arrived, people

have been returning. Before we had 30 fishermen, now we have more than 100" (#6, community member, male).

Another adaptation impact reported under Eden is derived from strengthened social organization. The establishment of an informal association called Siko—formed independently, but as an initiative of Eden's local employees (composed of 11 Eden managers and 10 planters)—has enhanced local capacity to adapt to food shortages during droughts. More broadly, creation of a sense of community and trust is perceived by all of Eden's respondents. Siko results in increased access to informal credit, which strengthens adaptive capacity in droughts: "I can now borrow money or buy things and pay later ... people trust me" (#20, community member, female). Lack of access to credit constrains activities that could generate revenues after the projects end. However, a more advanced credit system is considered necessary by the community to enable start-up of new businesses which could allow beneficiaries to become independent from the project.

Under WCS, adaptation assets such as barrage dams and irrigation systems are provided for intensified rice cultivation. This helps channel scarce water to small and productive pieces of land to improve yields. Adaptation is also sustained by shifting cropping practices—i.e., flexibility. Table 2, through agricultural training, i.e., "learning", delivered by WCS. According to n = 8 community respondents and a focus group (#F4, focus group), the project has shifted traditional cropping practices towards "improved" and "intensive" rice cultivation. Additionally, n = 6 respondents and a focus group (#F3, focus group), reported that WCS provided training and material (i.e., seeds and plastic bags to grow seedlings in nursery) to grow alternative crops such as cacao, cloves, and legumes. This resulted in strengthened capacity to adapt by changing cropping practices, particularly in dry periods. However, some challenges hamper delivery of long-term adaptation derived through agricultural training. There is limited buy-in of trained people on improved techniques due to their excessive complexity and the lag time of benefits. As mirrored by n = 6 community respondents, adoption is hampered by the excessive lag time between the implementation of the new technique and productivity increases (i.e., cacao and cloves), as well as by excessive complexity: "I don't shift because it is di fficult to do the alignment and carry out the calculations" (#66, community member, male). N = 3 respondents noted that suitable land is needed to shift from traditional rice farming (in the mountains) to intensive farming (in flatter areas) and land availability in the village is limited.

A sense of belonging generated across the communities involved with the Makira project fosters adaptation—i.e., social organization, Table 2. By setting formal institutions, such as the grassroots organizations, community managemen<sup>t</sup> plans are elaborated and implemented: "Since 2008 we've helped 73 communities that surround the Makira forest to develop contracts and managemen<sup>t</sup> plans at the communal level" (#65, project developer). This view is mirrored by community members, who report that the joint managemen<sup>t</sup> of natural resources through transferred forest managemen<sup>t</sup> allows for better sustainable land management: "We have a communal managemen<sup>t</sup> plan, which is a golden book for us ... if we need to cut trees, we ask for a permit (through the COBA) to build locally. We also stop people who come from outside to cut" (#F3, focus group). Concurrently, agricultural training for rice and alternative cash crop production is reported by both developer and community as a development impact which increases adaptive capacity under Makira. By creating producers' associations, WCS aims to sustain long-term people's flexibility to switch to alternative crops: "WCS suggested the formation of teams and created the association, so that they can better support the rice producers and train more people" (#F3, focus group). No direct financial benefits were reported as a result of the adoption of alternative cropping techniques. However, awareness raising, combined with the institution of annual quotas for cutting trees in the area has been reported by both developer and community to result in more sustainable forest use.

Finally, provision of basic infrastructure was reported by project developers and community members as a "physical" development benefit under both Eden and WCS. While two boreholes were constructed by Eden, and several water taps installed by WCS, they were not recognized as adequately addressing the issue of water scarcity and poor quality. Similarly, while both Eden and Makira have

provided some early schooling facilities, they are not able on their own to meet the basic educational needs of the population. Projects and governmen<sup>t</sup> are not keeping up with demand, with policy interviewees suggesting that such services should be the responsibility of external non-state actors: "The Malagasy governmen<sup>t</sup> is not obliged to provide (basic health and education) services to the villages. It should be the responsibility of external funders" (interview #59, policy maker).
