*3.4. Sensitivity Analysis*

Several European steel production companies have announced a transition towards electrification of steel production [26,41–43]. The level of the steel decarbonization from electrification option relies heavily on the level to which the electricity grid is decarbonized. Sweden already has a low CO2 emission grid factor compared to other countries. Therefore, a sensitivity analysis is performed for the carbon dioxide intensity of steel production via the H-DR/EAF process used in Pathway 2, 3 by varying CO2 emission grid factors. The results are compared to the CO2 intensity of the TGRBF/CCS/Biomass process used in Pathway 1 to estimate mitigation potential and feasible implementation time of these processes depending on CO2 emission grid factors. The sensitivity of CO2 emissions in steelmaking processes to the CO2 emission grid factor is calculated based on Equation (2) by applying future European CO2 emission grid factors estimated by the International Energy Agency (IEA) [44] (and given in Table A1). The IEA projection is done based on Sustainable Development Scenario [45], which is aligned with the Paris Agreement of limiting global temperatures to well below 2 ◦C. The estimates of carbon dioxide emission per tonne of steel produced are done for the period 2020–2040 to identify when in Europe deep emission reduction via hydrogen direct reduction steelmaking should take place in order to meet targets.
