*4.5. Sensitivity Analysis*

Figure 8 illustrates the results of the CO2 emission intensity of the primary steelmaking processes applied in Pathways 1 and 2, depending on the CO2 emission grid factors, including the timeline for the European electricity mix as estimated by IEA. The right y-axis shows the timing of future European CO2 emission grid factors estimated by IEA [44]. For future European CO2 emission grid factor using CCS in combination with biomass substitution in the blast furnace provides higher CO2 emissions reduction potential compared to hydrogen direct reduction steelmaking up until 2025. With given future European emission grid factors, the hydrogen direct reduction (H-DR/EAF) steelmaking process allows the reduction of emissions from conventional steel production by 50% in 2020, however, already in 2030, this option provides the greatest CO2 emissions reduction potential compared to investigated abatement measures for primary steelmaking. The complexity of the plant infrastructure is one of the central issues in capturing CO2 from steel production. Carbon dioxide emissions are distributed over a large area from different point sources (the lime kilns, sinter plants, coke ovens, hot stoves, BF, and BOF) with potentially different emission rates and flue gas compositions. Since in this study we assumed TGRBF as a capture point, it is not possible to reach near-zero emissions from primary steelmaking in Pathway 1. Applying CCS to all stacks in an integrated steel plant is possible in theory and would lead to near-zero CO2 emissions. It should be mentioned that the current Swedish CO2 emission grid factor is 69 g CO2/kWh which would make hydrogen direct reduction the best solution to cut CO2 emission from steelmaking deeply already at the present electricity production mix. The sensitivity analysis shows that the decarbonization of electricity supply is decisive for achieving near zero CO2 emission cuts in the steel industry.

**Figure 8.** CO2 emissions intensity of primary steelmaking in Pathway 1 (**orange**) and Pathways 2, 3 (**blue**) as function of future European CO2 emission grid factor. The horizontal dotted lines indicate the development of the European CO2 emission grid factors as estimated by IEA [44].
