**3. Results**

### *3.1. Biomass Resources and Energy Demands*

The Kisumu County has an agro-industrial and municipal organic waste feedstock of over 1.8 million t biomass (Table 3). The present work assumed that all the mass of biomass feedstock analyzed are suitable for an efficient and sustainable conversion to upgraded cooking fuels such as biomass pellets and biogas.


**Table 3.** Biomass available in BAU, 2015 (t) and use in the BAU, ICS, PGS, BGS and INT, 2035 (t).

1 Considering wood harvesting manual practices unsustainable with no regrowth. 2 Considering the demand for woody biomass will be produced via sustainable agroforestry systems in the available agricultural land in both the Kisumu (35%) and Siaya (65%) Counties. 3 Potential in the year 2015 to produce wood-logs with the available agricultural land, considering that 10% of the agricultural land can be converted to agroforestry land and the productivity of 10 t of woody biomass per ha of agroforestry land.

In the BAU scenario, in the year 2035, the demands for wood-logs in the Kisumu County would exceed the forest production capacity and potential agroforestry systems in that scenario and year. In the BAU scenario, in the year 2035, it will be necessary to import around 861 thousand ton of wood-logs from other regions, an amount that corresponds to around 92.8% of the total use.

According to the ICS scenario, the current capacity for producing woody biomass via sustainable agroforestry systems is able to satisfy 35% of the future demand of wood-logs. In this scenario, the current availability of feedstocks of maize cobs is sufficient to fulfill 100% of the demands for briquetting this biomass residue and transform it to a usable cooking fuel (Table 3). In the PGS scenario, the current capacity of agricultural land for the production of woody biomass in sustainable agroforestry systems can satisfy 42% of the future demands for wood-logs. According to the assumptions and projections made for this scenario, the current availability of sugarcane bagasse is sufficient to satisfy 100% of the demands for this biomass feedstock to produce sufficient biomass pellets for satisfying the energy cooking demands in 2035. Finally, in both the BGS and INT scenarios, the biomass feedstocks available in 2015 will be sufficient to address 100% of the demands for the production of wood-logs and upgraded fuels made of various biomass feedstocks considered in those two scenarios.

### *3.2. Fuel Energy Inventory Data*

In the BAU scenario, due to population growth and the rate of urbanization, the amount of fuel in terms of energy consumption is expected to increase by over 50% until 2035 in relation to the baseline year from around 9 to approximately 14 million GJ. This condition is related to the fact that there will be more people with energy needs and a higher fraction of the population consuming charcoal in urban areas, in case no policy is adopted to change the patterns of energy usage for cooking. In the ICS scenario, the projected increase in the energy consumption is expected to smoothen in relation to the

BAU, since the energy consumption by 2035 will be in the order of 13 million GJ (Figure 2). In the PGS scenario, the energy consumption is expected to increase by 26% in the period between 2015 and 2035, reaching a value in the order of 12 million GJ. The smallest increase in the energy consumption is predicted for 2035 in the BGS scenario, being this in the order of 8%. In the INT scenario, the energy consumption is expected to increase by 20% to 11 million GJ in 2035.

**Figure 2.** Fuel use in terms of energy consumption as input for the LCA model in the BAU, ICS, PGS, BGS and INT scenarios in 2015 and 2035.

In the BAU scenario, the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are expected to increase by 10%, ranging from around 220 thousand t of CO2e in 2015 to around 245 thousand t of CO2e in 2035. In the ICS scenario, the GHG emissions are predicted to be reduced by 18% to a value around 180 thousand t of CO2e in 2035 (Figure 2). The amount of fuel input flows to the LCA model regarding t fuel production and cooking life-cycle stages by type of fuel/cooking system in each scenario, are respectively described in detail in the Appendix A (Tables A2 and A4).
