• 3rd Scenario

Three maps with the same data identified in the 2nd Scenario have been created: a map with all the cultivated areas of the "COS 2010", another map with the represented parameters in "CLC 2012" and a last map, with the identified data in the "COS 2015". These maps are only for know of cultivated area with agricultural and silvicultural species in each map of mainland Portugal.

Table 5 presents all the maps and data considered to obtain the areas with agricultural and forestry species cultivated in mainland Portugal.

In Figure 8, the first and second scenario created for agricultural and forestry species grown in mainland Portugal are identified.

Figure 9 represents the third scenario with the 3 created maps, namely, with the agricultural and forestry species grown only for "COS 2010", "CLC 2012" and "COS 2015".


**Table 5.** Data considered in each scenario for cultivated agricultural-silvicultural species.

### 3.1.4. Estimated Production of Energy Crops

Considering the areas obtained for each created scenario with the suggested zones for the cultivation of energy crops and the implementation of microalgae crops, and bearing in mind the realistic yield data found in the literature, it is possible to estimate the production values theoretically for each species and scenario. From this starting point, Table 6 presents the value of the areas obtained (according to ArcGIS software), as well as the percentage of these areas out of the whole Portugal mainland area of 89,015 km2, the minimum and maximum productivity (according to Table 1) and the estimated minimum and maximum production for each crop. It is important to specify that the calculated productivity values are overestimated, considering a productivity of 100%.

The following text is a guideline for the calculation of either minimum or maximum production, including the percentage of the land area based on the mainland territory, all of this related to the cardoon 4th scenario, for example.

> *Minimum yield* (*t*) = *Area*(*ha*) × *Minimum productivity* (*t*/*ha*) *Minimum production* = 72, 312.73*ha* × 10 *t*/*ha Minimum production* = 723, 127 *t* ≈ 723 *kt Maximum yield* (*t*) = *Area*(*ha*) × *Maximum productivity* (*t*/*ha*) *Maximum production* = 72, 312.73*ha* × 15 *t*/*ha Maximum production* = 1, 084, 691 *t* ≈ 1085 *kt* 89, 015 *km*<sup>2</sup> → 100% *da area* 723.13 *km*<sup>2</sup> → *X*

*X* = 0.81% *o f the area obtained f or the Cardoon* 4*th scenario*

Based on the results presented in Table 6, the scenarios with the largest proposed area for each species are the 4th scenario for the cardoon, miscanthus and paulownia crops, with it being very limited by the selected data in "COS 2010", "CLC 2012", "COS 2015" and by the map of "Natural and semi-natural vegetation with conservation value".

In the case of microalgae cultures, there is not a significant difference among the 4 obtained scenarios, so it can be guaranteed that the areas would not diverge too much if new scenarios were created. However, the largest area identified was obtained in the 1st and 4th scenarios.

For the last case, the use of waste for bioenergy, approximately 73% of the area corresponds to land with already cultivated species, thus ensuring the existence of residual material that can be used in biomass for further energy conversion systems.

It should be pointed out that the yielded area from the 4th scenario for either cardoon or paulownia is around half the area of the previously reported unproductive soils (2% of mainland Portugal).



### *3.2. Publication on Laboratório Nacional de Energia e Geologia – LNEG´s geoportal*

After obtaining all maps of interest, all the created maps were compiled and published in the LNEG´s geoportal [48], on a dedicated theme for the CONVERTE project.
