*2.5. The Concept of Theory of Change in Relation to SDGs*

There is a wide use of the Theory of Change (ToC) across many academic disciplines, including environmental and organisational psychology, but it has also increasingly been connected to sociology and political science. ToC emerged from the field of programme theory and programme evaluation in the mid-1990s as a new way of analysing the theories motivating programmes and initiatives working for social and political change. It is focused not just on generating knowledge about whether a programme is effective but also on explaining what methods it uses to be effective. The original work in the 1980s has been developed further by the work of notable methodologists, such as Huey Chen's work on theory-driven evaluations [33,34], Peter Rossi's systematic approach to theory-driven evaluation in social sciences [35], Michael Patton's focus on integrating the theory with practice [36,37] and Carol Weiss' seminal work that takes a stakeholder-centric perspective [38–42] to find more effective ways of evaluating complex community programmes.

Weiss suggests [38] that complex community programmes had not sufficiently aligned local stakeholders on the change process and what the outcomes will be. She noted that the logic chains are particularly weak in the midsection of the causal chain, without which the longer-term goals are weakened. Weiss uses the term "Theory of Change" to describe the causal links across the inputs–outputs–outcomes pathway. She also focused attention on what users could claim in terms of impacts, separating claims of "attribution" from a wider, less direct, "contribution". Based on her work [38–42], ToC has been applied extensively across international development, public health and human rights and has since become a central theory that underpins the approach to project benefits management [43–46].

The literature review has highlighted the potential benefits and tensions of linking global goals to local delivery on infrastructure projects. As a result of these findings, the derived research question is the following: how do senior leaders in the construction sector rate and use global UN SDGs for infrastructure investment decisions at the local level? The sub-questions that flow from this are as follows.


Considering the aforementioned literature, it is possible to synthesise the fifth proposition related to the concept of the Theory of Change in relation to SDGs as follows.

**Proposition 5 (P5).** *Measurement of SDG performance should include a full project lifecycle perspective and take account of longer-term project outcomes and wider impacts.*
