5.3.3. Outputs-to-Outcomes

The "outputs-to-outcomes" node had the fifth highest incidence (n = 30) of relevant statements coded from the 40 participants (using the NVivo software). In terms of key word usage, this thematic was also one of the most frequently used (shown in the "Theory of Change" key word table, Table 4), with the first half of the causal chain (input, activities and outputs) being cited as frequently as the second half of the value chain (outcome to impacts). This was significantly less than the general reference to longer-term benefits that were synonymous with key words such as "value", "ends" and "goals", which were used only 339 times across the 40 interviews, equating to once every 175 words.

Within this subcode, most recognised the challenge of differentiating between outputs and outcomes. Too few knew how to do this well and, as a result, the wrong "targets indicators" were sometimes being used to measure success. Participant 8, a CEO of one of the UK's largest infrastructure programmes, said: "programme and project people are sometimes less aware of how we are doing strategically if you are not careful. So, they can often have a bias for cost and schedule focus and lose focus on other priorities we have set". Another way of expressing the inappropriate focus on outputs came from participant 3: "we know that, if we just design to code, we end up with projects that are great for today but absolutely do not meet the future that we are expecting".

Some organisations have fully embraced the strategic aim of better aligning with outcomes, such as participant 11: "So we thought long and hard not just about the goals that we created but about how they fitted with a set of outcomes in our region and what that would look like in terms of implementation. This was our way of meaningfully connecting the strategy with outcomes that our stakeholders recognised." The same person described the need to look at the end first to better understand ambitions: "you must start with the end in mind, even if you have not got a detailed route map to deliver at every stage of the journey". One of the most common reasons for the overemphasis on "outputs" was shared by participant 26: "So, the measurables are very weak in terms of linking the

engineering and the infrastructure impacts to the higher programme. It is just about 'have you built the hospital' as an output".


**Table 4.** Text analysis (NVivo) on key words' frequency: mechanism/context of the Theory of Change.

Finding #6: the use of the log-frame and Theory of Change provides a means to link outputs to outcomes and better identify SDG impacts.
