*3.4. Model Suitability*

The purpose of this modeling exercise is to determine long-term hydrologic and economic trends. Simulated results reveal implications of a specific water managemen<sup>t</sup> policy. Only limited regional hydrologic and economic data are available in the literature from which model inputs and relationships are acquired. System dynamics modeling is specifically chosen for this application because it has the benefit over other modeling methods of being able to proficiently model long-term trends while having limited data as inputs [13].

**Figure 3.** Tradeoff between selected performance measures and agriculture income; *x*-axis in all plots indicates agriculture income while the *y*-axis for each row of graphs from top to bottom are abundance, irrigation return, and connectivity; graph columns from left to right indicate climate scenarios GFDL, UKMO, and NCAR; value of hydrology indicators is labeled.
