**1. Introduction**

According to the UN Atlas of the Oceans [1], coastal tourism and recreation include the full range of tourism, leisure, and recreationally oriented activities that take place in the coastal zone and the offshore coastal waters such as recreational boating, cruises, swimming, recreational fishing, surfing, windsurfing, supping, snorkeling, diving, etc. These include the infrastructure supporting coastal development (e.g., hotels, resorts, restaurants, marinas, beaches, recreational fishing facilities, shops, roads, railways, airports, transportation). However, according to ECORYS [2], differentiation should be made between coastal and maritime tourism. For the purpose of this study, we shall use the definitions from [2], where coastal tourism would imply beach-based recreation activities (such as, for example, sunbathing, swimming, surfing, etc.), as well as non-beach related land-based tourism in the coastal area (this covers any recreation or tourism activities in the coastal area that require the sea to be in the proximity). Associated manufacturing industries and supplies also refer to this type. At the same time, maritime tourism refers to tourism that is mostly water-based than land-based, such as, for example, cruising, yachting, boating. This type also covers manufacturing of equipment, landside facilities, and necessary services.

The primary focus of this study is the impact of climate change on coastal tourism rather than maritime tourism. The main purpose of tourists coming to the Black Sea coast


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**Citation:**

A.G.Climate Change Impact on Coastal Tourism: A Case Study for the Black Sea Coast of Russia. *Hydrology* **2021**, *8*, 133. https://doi.org/ 10.3390/hydrology8030133

Kostianaia, E.A.; Kostianoy,

Academic Editors: Tamim Younos, Tammy Parece, Juneseok Lee, Jason Giovannettone and Alaina J. Armel

Received: 20 July 2021 Accepted: 31 August 2021 Published: 6 September 2021

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**Copyright:** © 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ 4.0/).

of Russia is to sunbathe, swim, and snorkel, which falls under the coastal tourism category. Climate change effects seem to be able to impact coastal tourism in a more pronounced form as air and sea temperature warming, heavy precipitation and flooding, algal bloom, and introduction of alien species are expected to affect the possibility to lie on the beach, ge<sup>t</sup> into the water, and swim. These parameters seem to have a lesser impact on such maritime tourism activities as cruising, yachting, and boating.

Coastal tourism plays an important role in the socio-economic development of many countries. For some of the countries, it was an engine for economic development, other countries successfully used coastal tourism to overcome economic crises, and for others, it is the main source of their budget revenue. We have plenty of examples in Europe: the MENA region, Southeast Asia, the Caribbean, and other parts of the world. Every country which has an exit to a warm sea invests in the development of coastal tourism, because it brings an important income into state and regional budgets, provides employment and jobs to the local population. According to different sources, in 2006, the coastal tourism industry has contributed about 10% of the total global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) [1,3,4]. In fact, in 2019, prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the travel and tourism industry accounted for 25% of all new jobs in the world, 10.6% of all jobs (334 million), and 10.4% of global GDP (USD 9.2 trillion). At the same time, international visitor spending totaled USD 1.7 trillion in 2019 (6.8% of total exports, 27.4% of global services exports) [3]. Most of these values belong to coastal tourism because this is the preferred destination for summer vacation.

The development of coastal tourism seriously impacts the coastal zone, terrestrial and marine environment, water and energy resources. Fresh and drinking water consumption, seawater, ground, air and noise pollution, plastic and microplastic pollution, untreated sewage, wastewater discharge into the sea, accumulation of waste and garbage, land degradation and land-use, coastal erosion, habitat and biodiversity loss, destruction of aesthetic value, and physical beauty of the coast are among the main threats caused by coastal tourism [4,5]. Uncontrolled tourism development in some cases can lead to environmental damage that can cost local populations and governments more than they would gain from the coastal tourism industry [4]. On the other hand, sustainable development of coastal tourism has the potential to create beneficial effects on the environment by raising awareness of environmental values, contributing to environmental protection and conservation, thus resulting in an increase in their economic importance [1]. The environment also can have both positive and negative impacts on the coastal tourism development, for example, via extreme weather events; physical, chemical, and biological processes in the sea; earthquakes and volcano eruption, and regional climate change which has been of grea<sup>t</sup> importance during the past 40 years, but usually ignored in strategies of coastal tourism development. All this leads to the necessity of sustainable coastal tourism managemen<sup>t</sup> and development, which can be done, for example, in the framework of Integrated Coastal Zone Management [6], Marine Spatial Planning [7], and Maritime Clusters [8–11], which have been increasingly acknowledged as essential boosters for innovation and diversification of the Blue Economy [11].

In the Russian Federation, the Black Sea coast of Russia is the major resort area for Russian citizens, because the Arctic Seas are not taken into consideration, the Baltic Sea and the Sea of Japan are much colder, and the Sea of Azov and the Caspian Sea have a little resort area infrastructure in comparison with the Black Sea. Thus, the major coastal tourism flow is directed to the Krasnodar Krai (Region) and the Republic of Crimea (Figure 1). In 2019, 17.3 million tourists visited the Krasnodar Krai, 60% of them during the summer season, and 7.43 million tourists visited Crimea. These numbers include both foreign and domestic visitors [12].

**Figure 1.** Geographical map of the Northeastern Black Sea based on Maps-For-Free (https://maps-for-free.com/#close, accessed on 30 August 2021). Blue line is the Kuban River. The Greater Caucasus stretches along the Black Sea coast.

The region under consideration is located between the Kerch Strait in the north and the state border with Abkhazia in the south, i.e., in the latitudinal band between 43◦23 and 45◦30 N (Figure 1). For comparison, this geographical band corresponds to the Northern Adriatic Sea between Split in Croatia and Venice in Italy, or the northern part of the Ligurian Sea between Cannes in France and Genoa in Italy. Both regions in the Mediterranean Sea are well known as the best places for coastal tourism and summer vacation in the Mediterranean due to a warm climate and warm sea. The same is true for the Russian coast of the Black Sea.

The climate in most of the territory of the Krasnodar Krai is moderately continental, on the Black Sea coast from Anapa to Tuapse—a semi-dry Mediterranean climate, south of Tuapse—humid subtropical. The high-altitude climatic zoning is characteristic of the mountains. In general, the region is characterized by hot summers and mild winters. The average January temperature on the Black Sea coast is 0 ... +6 ◦C, in Sochi +6 ◦C. The average July temperature is +22 ... +24 ◦C. Annual precipitation is from 400 to 600 mm in the flat part, and up to 3250 mm in the mountains [13].

The development of resorts on the Black Sea coast of Russia in the Crimea and the Krasnodar Krai began at the end of the 19th century. Today, this is a major resort and coastal tourism area for Russian citizens who spend their summer holidays on numerous beaches of the Black Sea. In December 2015, the Krasnodar Krai was named the most attractive tourist region of Russia in the "National Tourism Rating" (second and third places—St. Petersburg and Moscow). It includes resorts of federal significance Sochi, Gelendzhik, and Anapa, as well as numerous small villages and resorts of regional significance located between Anapa and Adler at the border with Abkhazia (from north to south—Vityazevo, Anapa, Dyurso, Yuzhnaya Ozereevka, Shirokaya Balka, Myskhako, Novorossiysk, Kabardinka, Gelendzhik, Divnomorskoe, Dzhankhot, Krinitsa, Betta, Arkhipo-Osipovka, Dzhubga, Lermontovo, Novomikhailovskiy, Olginka, Nebug, Agoy, Tuapse, Shepsi, Lazarevskiy, Vardane, Loo, Dagomys, Sochi, Matsesta, Khosta, Kudepsta, Adler) [14]. For instance, in Sochi, there are around 1000 certified hotels from 5-star (192) to mini-hotels (414) [15]. In Crimea, the most well-known resorts are located in (from west to east): Evpatoriya, Sevastopol, Balaklava, Simeiz, Alupka, Yalta, Gurzuf, Alushta, Sudak, Koktebel, Feodosiya, and Kerch [14].

In recent years, the most attention in the Krasnodar Krai has been paid to the development of a health resort complex, which makes it possible to increase the load of the health resorts in the off-season. The health resort sphere of the Krasnodar Krai includes more

than 200 organizations, their total capacity is about 100 thousand places. This is about 21% of the bed capacity of all Russian health resorts. On average, up to 1.5 million people annually rest and recover in health resorts, thus, the Krasnodar Krai occupies more than 25% of the Russian market of such services [12].

During the past 10 years, the Russian Government has invested significant funds in the development of tourism on the coasts of the Black Sea, including large infrastructure projects—reconstruction of airports in Sochi (Adler), Gelendzhik, Anapa, Krasnodar, and Simferopol; construction of the Crimean Bridge across the Kerch Strait and federal highway "Tavrida" from Kerch to Sevastopol; construction of Imeretinsky Resort and Olympic Park south of Sochi; building of new hotels and reconstruction of old ones; construction of the offshore gas pipeline "Dzhubga–Lazarevskoye–Sochi", and many others. All these projects have been performed with an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) which, according to the International Association for Impact Assessment (https://www.iaia.org, accessed on 30 August 2021), is "the process of identifying, predicting, evaluating and mitigating the biophysical, social, and other relevant effects of development proposals prior to major decisions being taken and commitments made".

Usually, the development of tourism and infrastructure on the Russian coasts of the Black Sea is carried out without assessment of the regional climate change impact in the nearest future and in the long-term perspective. To our knowledge, the same is typical for other resort areas in the world. This is not an obligatory procedure such as the EIA, but the ongoing climate change in the Black Sea Region forces such an analysis to be done to be sure that the investment will be as efficient as possible. The main feature of regional climate change in the Black Sea Region is the warming of the climate and seawater, which are regarded as evident and positive consequences of climate change for coastal tourism development. However, along with the warming of the region, climate change can lead to a series of negative processes (in relation to coastal tourism development) in the atmosphere and the sea which should be carefully studied before adopting long-term regional development programs.

Regional climate change in the Black Sea is accompanied by the intensification of extreme weather events. The Fourth [16] and Fifth [17] Climate Change Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicate that in the 21st century, climate change will be accompanied by an increase in the frequency, intensity, and duration of events with extremely high or low air temperatures, extreme precipitation or drought. All this may lead to floods, droughts, fires, shallowing of rivers, lakes, and water reservoirs, desertification, dust storms, algal bloom in the seas, and freshwater reservoirs. In turn, these phenomena in many cases may lead to chemical and biological pollution of water, land, and air, as well as to deterioration in the quality of life of the population, significant financial losses associated with damage to housing, businesses, roads, and railways, agriculture and forestry, coastal tourism, and in many cases even to human losses. The First [18] and Second [19] Roshydromet assessment reports on climate change and the consequences on the territory of the Russian Federation confirm these forecasts. Forecasts of independent groups of scientists have been repeatedly confirmed over the past 20 years—heavy rains, floods, droughts, and fires in various regions of the Russian Federation, including the coastal zone of the Krasnodar Krai, were yearly observed. In this regard, the analysis and forecasting of extreme weather events associated with regional climate change in the coastal zone of the Krasnodar Krai and Crimea are extremely important tasks, given the importance of coastal tourism for these regions.

Research interest towards the relationship between climate and weather, on the one hand, and tourism and recreation, on the other hand, became evident already in the 1950s [20]. A lot of attention has been given to evaluate predicted climate change by certain touristic regions, as consequences of such climatic changes will vary across regions and might mean different implications, increasing or decreasing the touristic flow. Such effects are manifold and have regional specifics. Detailed discussions can be found in publications from some of the major touristic coastal regions of the world, such as, for

example, published by: Becken [21] for Australia; Grimm et al. [22] for Brazil; Layne [23] for Caribbean SIDS; Becken [24] for Fiji; Friedrich et al. [25] for South Africa. The main discussed impacts for these regions are the same: higher temperatures, increased frequency, and intensity of extreme storms, increased precipitation, sea-level rise, sea temperature rise, change in ecosystems. Some other specific impacts are ocean acidification, coral bleaching, migration of species, the appearance of illnesses, change in the appearance of insects and organisms. Layne [23] and Lincoln [26] also point to the impact of climate change on human health and its implications for the tourist sector, citing such issues as extreme sunburn, dehydration, heatstroke, damage of public health facilities, water shortage during droughts, increase in skin diseases, cardio-respiratory conditions, and heat-related illnesses, spread of diseases through stagnant contaminated water. Some other indirect impacts are presented by Santos-Lacueva et al. [27]: increased energy consumption for cooling, increased water price due to scarcity, increased water consumption for recreation and comfort of tourists, artificialization of beaches due to sea-level rise, and the need for pest fumigation.

Klueva et al. [28] evaluated summer tourism for several regions in Russia, using the "tourism climate index"—TCI. For coastal tourism in the south of Russia, the authors came to the conclusion that climatic resources will increase towards the middle of the 21st century. Towards the end of the century, the TCI will lower, however, it will still remain within the range of comfortability for coastal tourism.

Despite the increasing significance of continuous research on climate change impacts on coastal tourism for the Black Sea coast of Russia, there are very few studies on this subject for this specific region. Extreme precipitation in summers, including this summer of 2021, has already led to significant disruption of transport services, evacuation of people, economic losses, and death tolls. Therefore, it is important to continue such research for this specific region to assess not only direct impacts on coastal tourism but also indirect consequences, including economic implications. A good example of such detailed research is a study by Arabadzhyan et al. [29], where the authors identified the following nine impact chains:

	- 1.1. Loss of attractiveness of marine environments due to loss of species, increase in exotic invasive species or degradation of landscape.
	- 1.2. Loss of attractiveness and comfort due to beach availability reduction.
	- 1.3. Loss of attractiveness due to increased danger of forest fires in tourism areas.
	- 1.4. Loss of attractiveness of land environments due to loss of species, increase in exotic invasive species or degradation of landscape.
	- 2.1. Loss of comfort due to increase in thermal stress and heat waves.
	- 2.2. Increase in health issues due to emergen<sup>t</sup> diseases.
	- 3.1. Increase in damages to infrastructures and facilities (accommodation, promenades, water treatment system, etc.).
	- 3.2. Decrease in available domestic water for the tourism industry.
	- 3.3. Loss of attractiveness due to loss of cultural heritage (monuments, gastronomy, etc.).

According to this breakdown, our research concerns impact chains 1.1. (partially), 1.2., 2.1., and 3.1. Further directions would also need to concern other impact chains, for which it would be essential to cooperate and receive information from the tourist industry specialists, marine biologists, health workers, public utilities and cultural tourism representatives.

The aim of this paper is to review a series of potential negative hydrological, meteorological, and biological factors for the Black Sea coast of Russia that accompany regional warming of the Black Sea Region and can impede the development of coastal tourism and devalue billions of dollars of investments by the State, private companies, and individuals. We discuss such natural phenomena as air and sea warming, extreme weather events, coastal upwelling, heavy rains, river plumes, wind and waves, tornado, rip currents, sea level rise, algal bloom, introduced species, and other features characteristic for the region that seriously impacts coastal tourism today, and may intensify in the nearest future. In the paper, we do not investigate the impact of anthropogenic factors, geopolitical and socio-economic processes, and the COVID-19 pandemic that plays an important role in the sustainable development of coastal tourism as well.
