*4.5. Importance and Limitation of the Proposed Approach*

The proposed weather-driven scenario-based analysis revealed the importance of the LNG quota, demand variations, and solar generation through the annual hourly simulation. System reliability could be analyzed using the duration curve, but this does not show the hourly balance, which is greatly influenced by demand and solar generation's stochasticity. Through careful selection of representative years, the range of potential scenarios was identified and analyzed to ensure robust results. However, the approach is dependent on the yearly assignment and is limited by the probabilistic matching of weekends and holidays to high irradiance days. The former is influenced by human behavior, while the latter is non-deterministic. Thus, although the simulation considered the yearly variations, the probability of a low irradiance day being matched to a high-demand weekday was not covered by the approach. Nonetheless, the approach can be used to provide robust recommendations for green energy transition since it covers the stochastic nature of demand and variable renewable energy. In this study, the approach was used to determine the minimum coal capacity that can ensure the system's reliability, but it could also be used for energy storage assessments and capacity planning. This study only used a single-bus network, but it could be expanded to a national grid level by representing each region as a bus. The approach can then be used for grid expansion planning.
