*3.1. Demand and Solar Generation Profiles*

#### 3.1.1. Demand Duration Curve

The synthetic demands' duration curve can be seen in Figure 9, where the demands from 2013 and 2018 are noticeably higher than the rest of the representative years. It can also be seen that 2014 had a lower peak demand, as was intended by the selection of the representative years. Figure 10 focuses on the winter and summer months, and it is noticeable that winter still has a relatively lower demand compared to the peak summer demand in August. From this figure, it can be seen that the peak winter demand was represented well by 2012 in February. At the same time, 2013 represented the extreme case of summer demand in August. The demand barely reached 14 GW at peak for the other months, and most values were under 12 GW. This information is crucial in understanding the limitation of reducing the coal capacity since the generation capacity must be able to handle peak demands. For instance, although winter leads to higher demand, its impact is not as high as that of summer. Nonetheless, this does not translate to higher coal capacity since the generation profile of the other energy sources, in particular solar, also has seasonal variations.

**Figure 9.** Duration curve of the synthetic demand.

**Figure 10.** Monthly duration curve of the synthetic demand.

3.1.2. Solar Load Factor

The solar load factor for each month can be seen in Table 8. Since 2016 and 2018 have higher summer demand, August's higher load factor will be helpful, but the relatively lower load factor for 2013 will be an issue since this year has higher demand. The lower load factor in December could be a potential issue, but since the load factor increases by February, this could accommodate the increase in demand during this peak winter period.

**Table 8.** Monthly solar power generation load factor (%) using the irradiance of the representative years.

