*3.2. Coal Decommissioning Potential*

Figure 11 shows the minimum coal capacity that could satisfy the demand for each of the 30 scenarios. The impact of yearly variations can be observed through the range of minimum coal capacity for each LNG quota scenario. As the LNG quota increases, the coal capacity could gradually be decommissioned without adding additional LNG capacity.

About 3.5 GW of the 7 GW coal capacity is older than 40 years old and should be decommissioned in the near future. However, based on the simulation results, this will be challenging if the LNG quota is not met. In the near term, where 10 GW of solar energy is already installed, the LNG quota must be at least 16 TWh. In the long term, where 16 GW of solar energy is already installed, the LNG quota must be at least 12 TWh. In both cases, as highlighted in Figure 12, around 400 to 600 MW of standby coal capacity is necessary to account for the yearly variations. As noted in the analysis of the demand duration curve, this standby capacity will be needed during the winter and summer periods, particularly in January, February, August, and September (Figure 10). Nonetheless, Figure 12 clearly shows the limitation for solar power in regard to decommissioning coal power plants beyond 12 GW installed capacity, since the minimum coal capacity no longer decreases despite additional solar generation.

**Figure 11.** Minimum required coal capacity as installed solar capacity increases, and various LNG quotas.

**Figure 12.** Standby coal capacity needed to ensure that the electricity grid can still handle weather-driven demand variations.
