*4.2. Determinants of Adoption of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies*

The R2 of 0.2503 for the overall model indicates that 25.03% of the variation in the choice of adaptation strategy mix (dependent variable) was due to the variations in the different social and economic factors of the households (explanatory variables). Though this value is low, the pseudo R2 for MNL models to explain social and behavioral outcomes, e.g., adaptation choices of households in Bobirwa sub-district, are usually low as shown by studies elsewhere [23,52]. The low R<sup>2</sup> also suggests that there could be other relevant factors not included in the model which may explain the adaptation choices by households in the study. In the study area, these could include the mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation, drought severity and recurrence, the extent of government programs such as Ipelegeng ("cash-for-labour") and ISPAAD, market development, migration and extent of human-wildlife conflicts. Those attributes with *p*-values below 0.05 significantly influence the adaptation choices of households in Bobirwa sub-district. Whether a variable has a positive (negative) or a significant (non-significant) influence on the adoption of any adaptation strategy should not imply a "cause-effect" relationship. However, where causality exists, this could be an important entry point for transforming current adaptation initiatives to be more effective and sustainable [53].

#### 4.2.1. Gender of Household Head

The non-significant effect of the gender of the main decision-maker on the adoption of any strategy (*p* > 0.05) indicates that the differences in the adoption of any strategy were not statistically different between female and male decision-makers at the household level. Female decision-makers at the household level were less likely to take up Land, Soil, and Water + Livestock-related Adaptations; Crop Adaptations Only; Crop + Livestock-related Adaptations; and Crop + Livestock + Land, Soil, and Water Conservation Adaptations compared to male-headed households as shown by the negative coefficient. These findings contrast those from other studies which found gender of the main decision-maker to significantly influence their choice of adaptation strategies among farming communities [13,30,54].

Although female decision-makers in households in Bobirwa sub-district were more likely to adopt livestock production and management practices as the only adaptive response, women and young people mostly reared chickens and small livestock such as goats. This could be due to the low feed demands by chickens and small livestock compared to large livestock such as cattle [44,55]. Studies such as [26] also found that male-headed households in Southern Africa were more likely to diversify livestock and crop production including other off-farm activities to manage the impacts of climate change than their female counterparts. Therefore, female-headed households in Bobirwa sub-district could be limited by the numerous household chores, childcare as well as the demanding nature of many agricultural adaptations. Such multiple tasks reduce the time for women to take up diversified adaptations as revealed by the negative relationship between female decision-makers at the household level and the adoption of several adaptation strategies.

Considering that female decision-makers only had higher chances of adopting Livestock-related Adaptations Only; Land, Soil, and Water Conservation Adaptations Only; and Crop + Land, Soil, and Water Conservation Adaptations, it may suggest that women in Bobirwa sub-district still face challenges in accessing resources such as land, relevant information and capital compared to male-headed households. Despite the high ownership of information communication channels such as mobile phones, television sets, and radios among the surveyed households, information asymmetry between males and females is very high among many rural farming communities as shown by studies elsewhere in Africa [13,34,56]. This could suggest that less relevant or inadequate information is shared through these channels. In addition, with only 32.3% of female heads of households being full-time farmers, where most of the household heads were females (79.7%) in a rural farming community, this further highlights the limits imposed on rural women by the several roles they perform.

As most of the heads of households were part-time farmers, both men and women in Bobirwa were expected to have limited time to fully implement most of the agricultural practices despite being the main decision-makers. However, unlike in other studies where women and children were mostly implementers of adaptation practices and decisions made by males, in Bobirwa sub-district, it is important for decision-makers to make adaptation decisions and policies which resonate well with women and young people. Being the majority of the household decision-makers, women can easily influence and inform the type of adaptations that require government support for them to be more effective. With the Government of Botswana culture of participatory decision-making through consulting communities in a bottom-up approach [57], adaptation policy and planning can easily cater for the gendered challenges within communities.

#### 4.2.2. Age of Household Head

The negative influence of age of the main decision-maker on all the seven adaptation strategies shows that aging hinders the adoption of any of the current adaptation strategies. However, aging only significantly reduced the adoption of Land, Soil, and Water Conservation Adaptations and that of Crop + Land, Soil, and Water Conservation Adaptations. These findings are different from previous studies like [25] where the age of the main decision-maker in the household was shown to significantly enhance adaptation to climate change by farmers in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia. The limitations imposed by aging in Bobirwa sub-district could be attributed to the reduced planning horizons and agility as people grow older. Therefore, elderly farmers were less likely to take up long-term adaptation decisions, particularly those involving demanding tasks. Despite the findings, elderly heads of households in Bobirwa sub-district could play a significant role in promoting successful adaptations by passing on the knowledge and experience acquired over the years to young people who are not only energetic but still have longer planning horizons. Young people are also more likely to integrate such knowledge with emerging adaptation measures.

With adult heads of households (41–60 years) more likely to adopt Land, Soil, and Water Conservation Adaptations Only; Land, Soil and Water + Livestock-related adaptations; Crop Adaptations Only; Crop + Land, Soil, and Water Conservation Adaptations and Crop

+ Livestock + Land, Soil, and Water Conservation Adaptations compared to young heads of households (<40 years), this shows that adult farmers were more experienced than young farmers [25]. Importantly, this could mean that the peak of adoption was reached in adulthood (41–60 years) and declined among the elderly. Studies by [23,34,58] also found age to be a proxy of, and correlated to, experience. Therefore, despite the declining adoption of adaptations with age, adult and elderly farmers in Bobirwa sub-district could be more knowledgeable and experienced about the dynamics of climate change adaptation than younger farmers.

#### 4.2.3. Dry Land Cropped Area

The negative influence of increasing the cropped area on the adoption of all adaptation strategies except livestock adaptations could be influenced by the surveyed household heads being mostly part-time farmers. Bigger farms require more resources and time to implement the various agronomic practices which part-time farmers may not have. Since most of the households (62.3%) had annual incomes below BWP5000 (US \$450), these could be inadequate for financing adaptation practices. Therefore, increasing the cropped area could be further limited by the low incomes. The emigration of at least two economically active household members in search of employment opportunities in neighboring towns and cities often results in households composed of more children and the elderly whose labour may not be available for farming. A high composition of children adds a strain on women—who usually have multiple household chores—through providing care which limits the time available to implement the numerous agronomic adaptation practices.

Although agricultural expansion was viewed by local communities as an adaptation to more severe droughts, the results suggest that bigger farms, which require more time and effort to implement various agronomic and adaptation practices, were a barrier to climate change adaptation in Bobirwa sub-district. Therefore, smaller farms require less time and effort for land preparation and implementing the various agronomic practices given the small household sizes (5) and low ownership of donkeys (26.1%), which are solely used for draft power in the study area. Despite the majority of households (63.8%) reporting that they owned agricultural land privately with papers, croplands in Bobirwa sub-district are communally owned and can be partitioned for other members as the human population grows [27]. Therefore, households could be reluctant to invest in meaningful and lasting adaptation strategies on their farms. This could be a barrier to the implementation of various adaptations on larger farms which may be targeted for partitioning than smaller farms.

The increased chances of the adoption of livestock-related adaptations with bigger cropped areas could be attributed to the complementarity between livestock and crop production. Livestock such as donkeys provide draft power for tillage while crop residues from crop production are increasingly used for feeding livestock during the dry season. Therefore, bigger farms encourage farmers to undertake livestock practices as an adaptation strategy as there exists a mutual relationship between the provision of draft power from livestock while residues from crops are used to supplement livestock feeds especially when pastures are scarce. A study by [46] reported that as part of the pre-drought preparations in Bobonong (village in Bobirwa), farmers stored crop residues of sorghum and maize for their livestock. Similarly, as a response to the declining availability of natural pastures, households could stock up and feed their livestock with crop residues from bigger farm sizes even with crop failure.

### 4.2.4. Household Size

The negative influence of bigger household sizes on the adoption of all the adaptation strategies, except one on crop and livestock adaptations in sub-district, could be attributed to the low composition of able-bodied and economically active members due to emigration. Although bigger household sizes have been shown to improve the adoption of adaptations by studies such as [59], the contrasting results from this study are likely due to the high composition of children, the elderly, and women. This is mainly due to the emigration of mostly young and adult members of the household who could be providing labour on the farms.

Young people living and working in neighboring towns and cities, particularly young women, often leave their children under the care of their parents or grandparents and return to the cities. This often leaves most households with many minors who require childcare which further limit time for working in the fields. As effective adaptations to climate change often require farmers to undertake several activities beyond their usual seasonal routines, this requires more labour and time resources which are limited by emigration of able-bodied household members. For instance, land, soil, and water conservation practices are usually labor-intensive. Therefore, households with several able-bodied members who are available to work on the farm may be able to take up several climate change adaptation measures than those households with fewer such members. There is a need for government programs to enhance livestock production, particularly donkeys which provide draft power for tillage. Government programs such as the ISPAAD, which assist poor farmers with free tillage and other inputs, also need to assist local communities to own tractors which they can control and schedule. This can increase the effectiveness of the programme and the timing of activities.

### 4.2.5. Climate Information

The very high access to climate and agricultural information (91%) by surveyed households in Bobirwa sub-district is attributed to the high ownership of cellular phones (94.5%), television sets (63.5%), and radios (51.6%). This is shown by the high proportion of households who were influenced or informed by radio or TV programme (78.1%) to adopt new farming practices. The high literacy level as shown by more than 72% of household heads with formal education further suggests that people were able to comprehend the messages sent through cell phones, radios, television sets, and print media. Therefore, the positive influence of access to climate information on the adoption of all the adaptation strategies could be attributed to the high ownership of communication gadgets and high literacy levels. High access to climate information by the surveyed households is also attributed to face-to-face interaction with extension officers (71%), village chiefs (*DiKgosi*) (41.9%), other successful farmers (39.7%), and farmer organizations (23.2%). [26] also reported a high uptake of adaptation measures among smallholder farmers who perceived changes in climate in southern Africa.

Although formal education was shown to enhance the adoption of Livestock-related Adaptations Only; Land, Soil, andWater+Livestock-related Adaptations; Crop+Land, Soil, andWater Conservation Adaptations; and Crop + Livestock + Land, Soil, and Water Conservation Adaptations, the effect was not significant. This may suggest that information on climate change and adaptation acquired through formal education could be inadequate to significantly enable effective adaptations in the study area. A study by [60] in 11 African countries noted that perceiving climate change was critical to decision-making and choosing the appropriate strategies to adopt. There may be need for improving the education curriculum to include climate change adaptation studies at all levels of formal education up to the tertiary level to enhance the adoption of adaptation practices that are more informed, effective and relatively inexpensive. The negative influence of formal education on the adoption Land, Soil, and Water Conservation Adaptations Only; Crop Adaptations Only; and Crop + Livestock-related Adaptations could therefore be due to less relevant information acquired over the years.

The quality and spatial resolution of climate information are also critical particularly for crop-related adaptations where the timing of certain operations is an important factor. The non-significant influence of climate information on the adoption of appropriate adaptation strategies could be due to the high spatial resolution of climate information by the Meteorological Services Department (MSD). For instance, weather information and seasonal forecasts in Botswana are often generalized and focus on the district levels to be of much relevance to decision-making at the sub-district, village, and farm levels. There is a need for the MSD to issue more localized weather and climate information which are more relevant at the farm level. With multiple information channels accessible to households (e.g., cellular phone, television, and radio) and the high literacy levels in Bobirwa sub-district, these could enhance the sharing of more localized, detailed, and relevant weather and climate information as well as climate change adaptation strategies.

With households depending mainly on traditional knowledge (41.3%) and meteorological services (58.4%) for climate information, the two climate information sources need to be complementary. The influence of non-formal and traditional knowledge on the adoption of agricultural adaptations among rural communities need to be well understood, validated, and synchronized with scientific information from formal institutions such as MSD. In addition to observing changes in vegetation, crop phenology, and growth patterns, information from the MSD, Ministry of Agriculture and other relevant institutions could significantly influence decisions at the household level and enhance the timely adoption of more appropriate adaptation measures.

Decentralized weather forecasting could allow more localized, relevant, and timely forecasting that can allow stakeholders and local communities to synchronize the traditional indicators with the scientific information from MSD. Extension information from the Ministry of Agriculture also needs to be current to enable farmers to adopt crops and practices suitable to the agroecological conditions in the study area that agricultural adaptations can be impactful [46].

#### 4.2.6. Household Wealth

Several variables in the model were indicators of household wealth, i.e., remittances, annual income, the proportion of remittances financing adaptations, as well as the number of rooms in the main house. Nonetheless, it was important to examine their individual effects. The negative influence of remittances, annual income, and the number of rooms in the main house on the adoption of almost all the adaptation strategies suggests that wealthier households in Bobirwa sub-district had less direct dependence on agriculture and ecosystem products. This is consistent with previous studies which showed that poor households were more dependent on the ecosystem products than wealthier households [61,62]. Therefore, as household wealth increases, households in Bobirwa sub-district were more likely to buy household food requirements and pay for other requirements than producing themselves.

Other studies have shown a positive influence of wealth and higher incomes on the adoption of agricultural adaptation in South Africa [43], Niger [39], and Zimbabwe [13]. The surveyed households in Bobirwa sub-district were therefore less likely to depend on the ecosystem products, particularly from agriculture and woodlands, with increasing income. Higher incomes enable households to purchase their food requirements than produce it themselves given the severe droughts. Therefore, increasing opportunities for off-farm incomes could effectively reduce the dependence on natural ecosystems and help with conservation efforts. Reduced human dependence on ecosystem products can allow biodiversity regeneration, enhance the condition of local ecosystems and improve the delivery of provisioning ES.

#### 4.2.7. Occupation and Employment Status of Household Head

The positive influence of being a full-time farmer on the adoption of all adaptation strategies except Land, Soil, and Water Conservation, unlike part-time farmers, is attributed to more disposable time resources to practice or implement these adaptations. Although formal employment is usually associated with sustained and reliable income, annual income and remittances have already been shown to have a negative influence on the adoption of almost all the adaptation strategies. However, other positive, non-monetary benefits of formal employment among household members in the study area are related to access to recent, up-to-date, and relevant climate and agricultural information which allows them to make informed decisions using experience gained in a formal setting. Other studies have shown that household members working outside their communities were not only bringing new information, ideas, and technologies but were also influential in the decision-making of their households [7,63].
