**1. Introduction**

Extreme hydrological events, including drought and floods, occur in various parts of the world [1]. The mechanisms involved are extremely complex and poorly understood [2]. Global warming has affected the hydrological cycle, leading to more frequent and intense precipitation events [3]. Recent studies suggested that future global warming will lead to significant changes in the intensity and frequency of precipitation, which is very likely to be associated with a higher risk of urban drought and floods [4]. Drought can be classified into four categories: meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and socio-economic drought [5]. There is no universally accepted definition of drought, and no index that applies to all types thereof [6].

The United Nations Environment Programme [7] defines adaptation as follows: "In human systems, the process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects to moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities. In natural systems, the process of adjustment to actual climate and its effects; human intervention may facilitate adjustment to expected climate". Adaptive capacity, community resilience, and strategies adopted in human and natural systems to adjust to uncertainties in the climate should be assessed, along with the frequency and/or severity of climate events [8]. Sensitive systems are needed to ensure survival [9].

Local knowledge can increase the resilience of communities, and enables them to develop adaptation strategies, including early warning systems in the face of an uncertain climate [10–12]. Anthropologists and sociologists have developed theories of local knowledge, dating back to the 1930s and 1940s. For example, Redfield introduced the "folk-urban continuum" concept in 1944 [13],

according to which risk reduction can only be achieved through a social process as opposed to a technical, engineering-based process [14]. A catastrophic tsunami was predicted by communities in Aceh, Indonesia based on their local knowledge (*Smong*) [15]. Local knowledge is also being used to prevent and mitigate damaging phenomena linked to climate variability in Zimbabwe, such as flooding [16] and droughts [17]. Many studies have characterized local knowledge as a dynamic and complex body of knowledge, practices, and skills that are developed and preserved by towns or communities through their experiences over time. However, no study has assessed whether local knowledge pertaining to agriculture can enhance community resilience by mitigating the effects of floods and drought.

The Local and Indigenous Knowledge System (LINKS) was proposed by the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) as a method for integrating local knowledge with scientific studies of disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA). LINKS has been used to emphasize the relevance and advantages of local knowledge through empirical data. Local knowledge is transmitted from one generation to the next, and may help to mitigate disaster and promote CCA [18].

In Indonesia, local knowledge plays a role in improving disaster preparedness. For example, *Smong* played a role in the response to the Indian Ocean earthquakes and resulting tsunamis that occurred in 1907 and 2004 [15]. Local agricultural knowledge, including *Aneuk Jame* (in Aceh), *Parhalaan* (in Sumatra), *Paladang Dayak* (in Kalimantan), and *Pranata Mangsa* (in Jawa) has been used to strengthen community resilience to natural disasters over a long period, and can be traced back to ancient agricultural kingdoms (beginning in 700 AD) [19].

In 1960, the Indonesian government strictlyimplemented a national program consistent with the Green Revolution, whereby conventional farming was replaced with modern practices (e.g., mechanization, pesticide use, and changes in crop types) [20,21]. Local knowledge was treated as outdated and unscientific by this program, which led to self-sufficiency in rice production by the 1980s. Indonesia was recognized internationally for its favorable policies with respect to the Green Revolution, even being granted the honor of making a speech to other Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) member countries [22], whereas the local knowledge was regarded only as a traditional culture rather than a practical guideline. However, the new practices were criticized in terms of the high costs, land degradation, and use of unsustainable agricultural practices [23]. Farmer demonstrations also occurred, with one farmer stating: "We were free and able to make our own decisions of what to plant, when to plant, and how to plant based on traditional local knowledge" [24].

The history of local knowledge over the past 1000 years in Indonesia is rich, especially as it pertains to agriculture, which is the focus of this study. Several important questions remain; for example, can an effective agriculture system be achieved based on local knowledge without scientific data; and how does local knowledge relate to DRR and CCA? Hence, we validated and verify the components of local agricultural knowledge, namely *Pranata Mangsa*, using a scientific approach, and to classify them according to whether they have a scientific basis and can be related to DRR and CCA.

#### **2. Materials and Methods**

#### *2.1. Study Area*

We conducted our research on Jawa island, Indonesia (Figure 1). Jawa has a total population of 150 million and there are three ethnic groups: Betawi, Sundanese, and Javanese. It has an area of ~130,000 km2, which is about 6.8% of the total land area of Indonesia [25]. An original manuscript from Mangkunegaran Palace in Surakarta, Jawa Tengah, Indonesia, was studied as a source of local knowledge. Scientific analyses were conducted in Indramayu (6◦21 S, 108◦19 E; Jawa Barat Province), Sukoharjo (7◦40 S, 110◦49 E; Jawa Tengah Province), Sleman (7◦42 S, 110◦20 E; Yogyakarta Province), and Ngawi (7◦24 S, 111◦25 E; Jawa Timur Province).

**Figure 1.** Map of study area in Jawa island, Indonesia.
