*3.1. The Agta of Northeast Luzon (the Philippines)*

The first case that we discuss concerns the Agta (sometimes referred to as Dumagat), an indigenous population of about 10,000 people consisting of 16 linguistic groups [32]. They live in small, scattered, kin-based groups along coasts and rivers in Northeast Luzon (the Philippines). Contemporary Agta trace much of their ancestry with the Australasian peoples that first populated the archipelago, somewhere between 30 and possibly 60–70 thousand years ago [33,34]. Although they have increasingly intermarried with and partly assimilated into the Austronesian farming populations that have settled in their vicinity over the past 5000 years [35,36], part of the Agta population maintains a distinct cultural identity, social organization, and livelihood system (see Figure 2).

**Figure 1.** Map of Southeast Asia with the locations of the four case studies.

**Figure 2.** Map of Northeastern Luzon (Philippines), indicating the home territory of the Agta and the boundary of the Northern Sierra Madre Natural Park.

This is despite tremendous pressures on their natural and social environment that have arisen particularly since the 1950s. While Agta and non-Agta are thought to have maintained relatively symbiotic barter relations for hundreds of years, from the mid-20th century the demography of the hitherto sparsely population region drastically changed [37]. Large-scale and long-term logging and mining operations caused massive deforestation. These operations drew thousands of laborers, many of whom permanently settled at the logging frontier and developed farmland in previously forested areas [30]. Consequently, the Agta became a small minority in a heavily degraded environment [38]. Their situation was aggravated by the impact of armed conflict between the Philippine National Army and communist insurgents, who used the remaining forest as their hiding place [39,40]. Over the past decade, Agta groups inhabiting the coastal areas have been displaced by tourism and infrastructural development [41,42].

The impacts of these developments have in some areas led the Agta to become a new impoverished underclass of landless peasants who live on the margins of towns and villages [37]. Others retreated further into the remaining forest or stayed put on isolated coastal strips. In the remotest areas, an estimated 2000 Agta continue to live in hamlets of several closely related nuclear households away from roads, towns, and villages. They live on a combination of fishing, hunting, small-scale swidden cultivation, and the collection of forest and marine products for consumption and exchange with farmers and traders. These include a variety of freshwater and saltwater fish, crayfish and shells, game (notably deer, wild pig, macaque, monitor lizard, bats, and a range of birds [43], edible and medicinal plants [44], timber, and non-timber forest products such as honey and rattan. In addition, for almost all groups casual labor on farms, and in logging and mining concessions form an important source of income for at least a few months each year [45].

The tropical ecosystems that sustain the Agta include reefs, mangroves, lowland dipterocarp rain forests, rivers, and streams. This environment has always been heavily influenced by seasonal fluctuations in rainfall and temperature. The dry season runs roughly from February through June and comes with mean temperatures ranging from 27–29 ◦C and a (usually mild) wind blowing from the southwest. The wet season dominates the rest of the year, and comes with temperatures of roughly 24–26 ◦C and average monthly rainfall ranging from 400–900 mm. The peak of this season (June-December) is also known as the 'typhoon season'. In an average year, twenty typhoons, or tropical storms, affect the Philippines, of which around eight or nine make landfall [46]. Usually coming from the southeastern direction [47], these massive tropical weather systems land on the coastal strip that flanks the Northern Sierra Madre Mountain Range, which runs in a north-south direction.

The Agta's livelihood and mobility strategies have evolved to respond to these fluctuations and have different emphases in the wet and dry seasons. For instance, fishing in rivers and on reefs is primarily done during the hot, dry season, when waters are calm and clear. As spear fishing is the predominant technique used, visibility is crucial. This is also the season in which mobility is highest: several nuclear families may group together in temporary shelters on a beach or riverbed, from where they fish for a few consecutive days before returning to the more permanent hamlet or moving on to the next fishing site. The dry season also marks the peak in collection of most fruits and honey, which requires lengthy trips into the forest. During the wet season, mobility decreases and nuclear families come together in larger, more permanent settlements. Housing then ranges from open huts with a lifted bamboo floor and palm thatched-roofs, to two room houses with timber walling and corrugated iron roofs [48]. Fishing is hampered by rough seas and rivers, colder water temperatures, and poor visibility. Depending on the group's location and individual preferences, hunting, swidden cultivation, and casual labor become more important (see Figure 3).

However, these strategies to navigate seasonal fluctuations are compromised by changing environmental conditions. Even in the remotest areas, the integrity of coastal and forest ecosystems has been undermined by the combined effects of deforestation, population pressure and resource depletion. Apart from the direct ecological impacts of logging and subsequent land conversion on tree cover and wildlife abundance, the influx of company laborers has meant additional pressure on fish and game. As a result, the Agta's fishing and hunting success has dwindled up to the point that some Agta groups have given up on hunting [40], while fishing has become extremely unrewarding, especially in upriver 'logging hotspots' [45].

**Figure 3.** Agta getting ready for a typhoon, Maconacon, Philippines. Based on earlier experiences, the Agta know where and how to hide for serious storms while minimizing the risk for human safety and material damage© Minter, November 2004).

Unsustainable logging practices further undermine the forest's important role in water regulation [49]. With heavily eroded riverbanks, blocked watercourses, and denuded hillsides, the forest is no longer able to absorb the amount of water that it used to. This results in flashfloods and mudslides both in upstream areas and in the densely populated downstream plains. This situation persists despite the designation of the Northern Sierra Madre Natural Park as a protected area in 1997. Due to weak environmental governance and law enforcement, overharvesting of timber and non-timber forest products has continued [50]. The recent and contested construction of a road across the protected area is expected to further aggravate this situation [42].

This reduced protective function of forests is arguably among the foremost concerns in relation to climate change for the Agta and for Northeastern Luzon as a whole. The main known impact of climate change to be seen in the region is a further increase of the already existing seasonal fluctuations. Specifically, an increase in rainfall during the wet season, and a decrease in rainfall during the dry season is expected, as well as an increase in the occurrence of natural hazards like typhoons, floods, and landslides [46,47]. Longitudinal data on tropical storms since the 1950s show, that there has already been an increase in the highest category typhoons [51].

Typhoons have always been part of life in Northeast Luzon and several observations can be made that hint at the Agta's relatively favorable adaptations towards this harsh climate. This should however not be misunderstood to suggest their being 'typhoon resilient' under new conditions of climate change. Certainly, the earlier mentioned diversity of their livelihood package in itself serves as a way to spread risk, including the risks brought about by extreme weather. Also, while Agta minimally engage in agriculture, the few crops that they do grow are usually typhoon-resistant root crops such as sweet potato and cassava, rather than the vulnerable cash crops yellow corn and rice that dominate the region. Marginal as the Agta's fields may seem, being spread out in multiple locations they do serve as an important source of 'famine food', while requiring minimal maintenance [40,52].

With respect to Agta's strategies to seek protection during typhoons, little information is available to establish their effectiveness. We know that these strategies include digging shelters under big, previously fallen trees, hiding in caves, closing open huts with woven palm fronds, and constructing specific 'typhoon houses'. These are built very low to the ground, in an open space away from rivers and coasts, and provide shelter for several nuclear families. Agta living closer to villages and towns sometimes seek safety in designated evacuation centers, like churches and schools [48].

Interestingly, as part of various post-typhoon relief aid programs, and especially following typhoon Juan in 2010 (international name 'Megi'), local authorities have actively encouraged Agta in coastal areas to move land inward and build 'permanent houses' (i.e., houses with concrete hollow-block or timber walls and tin roofs). While a few individuals and families have responded positively, many are ambivalent towards these housing schemes. Some claim they never received the construction materials that were meant for them; others say they are not interested in them anyway because they prefer to continue living where and how they have always lived. Among their hesitations is the fact that the schemes result in houses that may be slightly sturdier than the Agta's usual houses, but that they are certainly not typhoon-proof. This results in additional dangers from wild-flying tin roofs during typhoons as well as a lot of costly repair work afterwards [48].

Most importantly, these material interventions only serve to mitigate impacts without addressing the underlying problem. The highest numbers of deaths do not arise from the storm itself, but from floods, mudslides, and landslides that occur during and after the associated heavy downpours [53]. With forests being severely reduced in size and quality, their protective function has diminished [47]. Thus, the focus on technical aspects of typhoon mitigation distracts attention from the root-causes of the arising disasters: decades of unsustainable forest management.
