*Article* **Historic and Simulated Desert-Oasis Ecotone Changes in the Arid Tarim River Basin, China**

**Fan Sun 1,2 , Yi Wang 1,3,\*, Yaning Chen <sup>1</sup> , Yupeng Li <sup>1</sup> , Qifei Zhang 1,2, Jingxiu Qin 1,2 and Patient Mindje Kayumba 1,2**


**\*** Correspondence: 51102473@ncepu.edu.cn; Tel.: +86-991-7823175

**Abstract:** The desert-oasis ecotone, as a crucial natural barrier, maintains the stability of oasis agricultural production and protects oasis habitat security. This paper investigates the dynamic evolution of the desert-oasis ecotone in the Tarim River Basin and predicts the near-future landuse change in the desert-oasis ecotone using the cellular automata–Markov (CA-Markov) model. Results indicate that the overall area of the desert-oasis ecotone shows a shrinking trend (from 67,642 km<sup>2</sup> in 1990 to 46,613 km<sup>2</sup> in 2015) and the land-use change within the desert-oasis ecotone is mainly manifested by the conversion of a large amount of forest and grass area into arable land. The increasing demand for arable land for groundwater has led to a decline in the groundwater level, which is an important reason for the habitat deterioration in the desert-oasis ecotone. The rising temperature and drought have further exacerbated this trend. Assuming the current trend in development without intervention, the CA-Markov model predicts that by 2030, there will be an additional 1566 km<sup>2</sup> of arable land and a reduction of 1151 km<sup>2</sup> in forested area and grassland within the desert-oasis ecotone, which will inevitably further weaken the ecological barrier role of the desert-oasis ecotone and trigger a growing ecological crisis.

**Keywords:** Tarim River Basin; desert-oasis ecotone; land-use change; CA-Markov model
